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The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard

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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#41 » by Fencer reregistered » Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:11 pm

druggas wrote:
Fencer reregistered wrote:I'm going to disagree with the whole premise here. (And with Cousy as well, who famously thought that Chauncey Billups would never be a championship PG.)

The Celtics are currently being coached to a Popovich/.5 system. No one distributor should or can control that.

And by the way, no recent repeat champion has been built around that kind of PG. No Phil Jackson team was built that way. That's not Popovich's model. That's not what Steph Curry does. It's not how the Heatles operated.

Not recent, but Magic Johnson says "Hi". And don't tell me CP3 wouldn't have been a huge upgrade and probably carried the Celts to at least the championship game.


Yes, an all-time great player at any position would probably be useful.

But my argument was that a star stereotypical PG clearly is not REQUIRED.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#42 » by Jammer » Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:31 pm

Fencer reregistered wrote:
druggas wrote:
Fencer reregistered wrote:I'm going to disagree with the whole premise here. (And with Cousy as well, who famously thought that Chauncey Billups would never be a championship PG.)

The Celtics are currently being coached to a Popovich/.5 system. No one distributor should or can control that.

And by the way, no recent repeat champion has been built around that kind of PG. No Phil Jackson team was built that way. That's not Popovich's model. That's not what Steph Curry does. It's not how the Heatles operated.

Not recent, but Magic Johnson says "Hi". And don't tell me CP3 wouldn't have been a huge upgrade and probably carried the Celts to at least the championship game.


Yes, an all-time great player at any position would probably be useful.

But my argument was that a star stereotypical PG clearly is not REQUIRED.


But the exceptions to that are not applicable to the Celtics.
Using the 1996 to 1998 Bulls as an example, which used Ron Harper (6' 6" DEFENSIVE ACE) backed up by Steve Kerr (all time shooter).
Mike Jordan was a 5X League MVP and 6X Playoff MVP (CURRENT). Pippen was a 7X All-Star, 3X 1rst Team All-NBA, 8X 1rst Team All-Defense. Toni-Kukoc was 6' 11" who could play either forward who shot around 36% from 3 his 3 championship seasons. And Dennis Rodman was a 2X All-Star and 2X Defensive player of the year. And earlier in Harper's career (pre-Bulls) he had multiple 20 ppg seasons.

Looking at a player like Marcus Smart that actually won a championship - 6' 2" Larry Siegfried of the Celtics, who won 5 championships in the 1960's. Played with 4 All-Stars most of the time he was on the court once he became a starter. That's not Marcus Smart's good fortune. And the backup PG (long forgotten Emmet Bryant) for the Celtics in Game 7 of the 1969 Finals came off the bench to shoot 10-12 FG 1-1 FT for 21 points to help seal the win. Smart doesn't have that kind of help behind him.

Miami''s 2012 and 2013 teams had 3 Superstars (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) in their prime with snipers Mike Miller and Shane Battier and All-Time Shooter Ray Allen also off the bench for the 2013 run.

A team like Detroit in 2004 or San Antonio in 2003, 2005, 2007 all had All-Star PG's to go with multiple other All-Stars.

So yeah, if Horford was 7 years younger and we had another CURRENT YEAR All-Star in the starting lineup (Brown probably won't make it but will be close), then Smart's shortcomings would be mitigated but it's still the area that needs the most improvement at the starter level. Backup Wing (both SG and SF are pitiful for the Celtics since they don't have shooters that hit to bring in right now other than Richardson, and they rarely have their top 3 wings available on the same night anyway).
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#43 » by return2glory » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:19 am

Is lack of true point guard a code word/phrase for we really need a real head coach? If it is, I agree with the OP.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#44 » by Captain_Caveman » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:36 am

The real problem is a lack of talent.

And coaching.

And injuries/COVID.

And not having personnel that fits each other offensively, which is a problem that goes beyond PG. Too many iso players that can't move the ball, or who do it too slowly. And motion or moving without the ball? LMAO, no.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#45 » by Captain_Caveman » Sun Jan 16, 2022 6:57 am

Fencer reregistered wrote:I'm going to disagree with the whole premise here. (And with Cousy as well, who famously thought that Chauncey Billups would never be a championship PG.)

The Celtics are currently being coached to a Popovich/.5 system. No one distributor should or can control that.

And by the way, no recent repeat champion has been built around that kind of PG. No Phil Jackson team was built that way. That's not Popovich's model. That's not what Steph Curry does. It's not how the Heatles operated.


Well said.

I think the truth of it is a few things. This team has been on the wrong side of the injury line for quite some time. They have had a well above average amount of injuries, in both overall numbers and importance of injured players, for maybe 75% of the time since IT got hurt in in the playoffs five(!) years ago. That is obfuscated by making a couple of ECFs in that span, but since Tatum got COVID a year ago or so, we have just never been able to field a consistent rotation at all. It has clearly impacted the W-L record the last two seasons.

With the same good fortune on that front as teams like the Suns, Jazz, Knicks, and Hawks had last year, and the Bulls were having this year until recently, we probably at least make the 2nd round last year, and would maybe be as good as 28-16 right now. So a lot of this is just perception and scapegoating IMO.

In the bigger picture, that's as far as it goes. Like a dozen other teams, we are borderline top 5 if everything falls into place, but no better. We are not good enough to withstand significant injuries of any kind, and not a true contender in any event. That's just life when you have the 12th best player, the 23rd best player, and a bunch of role players that aren't in the top 50.

In sum, Smart is not an ideal PG, but there's a whole lot of robbing Peter to pay Paul if he's not on the floor. Blaming him is a copout IMO. You can absolutely win a title with Smart playing 32mpg. You just have to be a healthy team with actual championship-caliber talent, and we are neither of those things.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#46 » by sam_I_am » Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:54 pm

Statistically, there is no difference between Smart and JRich. Realistically, teams can get guys like that anytime they want. I like Smart and I don’t blame him for teams performance but at the same time he isn’t the answer.

Why I think this team needs a point guard is that Jaylen and Tatum have elite skills and both share the same flaws - they don’t move the ball and they don’t make things that much easier for lesser talented teammates.

When they played with PGs like Rozier or Kemba or with playmekers like Hayward who were threats to score,shoot,pass they were far more effective. This is no different than when Paul Pierce was struggling and the team brought in Atkins and then Payton and he was far more effective. Unlike Pierce teams however, there is already a second star.

Neither Tatum or Brown alone or together has what it takes to take this team above an average record right now. I do believe this team will have a stronger second half to season and will be a solid first round playoff team. We need a third good player or an above average playmaker to contend for a deep playoff run.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#47 » by rd26 » Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:54 pm

The problem really isn't the point guard per se, its a 3rd big salary problem. Sure that guy could be a PG, but he can't be a 36 yr old role player making 27mm.

Kemba was partly bad luck, partly bad fit, but that's where the train left the tracks.

Its been stated 1000 times, but when Marcus, Rob and AL are your outlets, Magic would have a hard time making plays.

Letting Kemba and Frenchy go cured the constant pressure point on D, but we are paying for it dearly on the other side of the court.

There are several ways we could go other than busting up the Jays, none make us a contender now. I don't care what our defensive rating is. They could create a better path to get there.

You could replace Rob with a stretch 5. Trade D for O.

Replace Smart with a better pure point. Better O, potentially much worse D.

Replace Al with anything 1 to 4. You add any or all of speed, shooting, spacing, perimeter defense, transition defense, you get the picture.

Even somebody like Rozier in place of Al would make a massive difference imo.

This team goes nowhere until or unless the Jays make another leap. That doesn't happen while they are trying to make plays to guys who just aren't good on that side of the court. Shots don't come easy playing 2 on 5, neither do passes.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#48 » by SilverQuick » Sun Jan 16, 2022 3:53 pm

Most of us says pure PG or better PG but no one comes up with a name. Thats not that easy to find one . I wonder who would you propose to trade for whom should be better fit than Mr. Smart also who should be available for a trade.
There are not too much of them
M.Brogdon should be available but he is injury prone yet i would like to have him for correct cost. This one is most realistic one in my opinion
Dejounte Murray- He is not available or would not be cheap, they would request Rob or jaylen which the celtics would not accept
Derrick White - Should be cheaper than Murray but not an upgrade over Smart
D.Fox - Not cheap, big contract
S.Dinwiddie- Not sure if he is upgrade over Smart
Reggie Jackson- Same type of player as Schroeder. Not offer new things to the team
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#49 » by Larry_Russell » Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:26 pm

cob y white is the guy to watch for imo.

young can score, can playmake can defend. just been in a bad for him situation.
Tatum is a PF Horford is a C
Young guys Need time
Smart and Schroder= dumb
Isolation plays are NOT A VIABLE OFFENSE
Stop running your stars into the ground.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#50 » by Slartibartfast » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:03 am

I still think a Horford for Westbrook swap makes sense on the court. As inefficient as Russ is he's still fast and dynamic and can play the game with pace. Would be a big change of pace move to unleash the Jays and get this team back to playing with speed.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#51 » by thebirdman » Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:00 pm

Tyus Junes is a guy I would like to trade for. He has really good feel for the game.

But I do not see MEM trading him... he was superb for them when Ja was out...

I think we will have to find our PG of the future through draft. 2022 isn't really a PG draft but there are a few guys in our range (12-16)...

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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#52 » by Larry_Russell » Mon Jan 17, 2022 1:55 pm

thebirdman wrote:Tyus Junes is a guy I would like to trade for. He has really good feel for the game.

But I do not see MEM trading him... he was superb for them when Ja was out...

I think we will have to find our PG of the future through draft. 2022 isn't really a PG draft but there are a few guys in our range (12-16)...

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Washington looks good.
Chandler too

Wesley and Love, Maybes?
Tatum is a PF Horford is a C
Young guys Need time
Smart and Schroder= dumb
Isolation plays are NOT A VIABLE OFFENSE
Stop running your stars into the ground.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#53 » by greenroom31 » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:41 pm

Tyus Jones putting on a show tonight. Coby White playing ok even though Bulls getting killed. Brunson also remains an interesting target along with possibly Anfernee Simons.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#54 » by 24istheLAW » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:56 pm

Smart-as-title-contending-starter, requires a ball-dominant/penetrating guard or wing next to him. LeBron has always thrived with guards like Smart. He'd be great next to Harden. It's not hard to see what kind of scenario Marcus can thrive in.

The problem is that at this stage in their careers, Brown and Tatum don't fit that ballhandling mold. They need another ballhandler to get them the ball and to get into the paint. Which is why the team operates better with Schroder right now, who on a hypothetical contender, would be backing up Smart rather than the other way around.

The true "fix" isn't swapping Smart for a more conventional PG. It's Brown and Tatum evolving into more effective ballhandlers, and improving their floor game, and Smart slotting into a role where he doesn't have to get them the ball in spots or collapse the defense for them.

I'd argue Schroder being a better PG for the team right now than Smart is a symptom of the more fundamental problem. Not an indictment of Smart.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#55 » by Kalela » Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:59 pm

Captain_Caveman wrote:The real problem is a lack of talent.

And coaching.

And injuries/COVID.

And not having personnel that fits each other offensively, which is a problem that goes beyond PG. Too many iso players that can't move the ball, or who do it too slowly. And motion or moving without the ball? LMAO, no.


What would you do about the lack of talent if you were in Brad's shoes?
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#56 » by Jammer » Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:55 pm

Kalela wrote:
Captain_Caveman wrote:The real problem is a lack of talent.

And coaching.

And injuries/COVID.

And not having personnel that fits each other offensively, which is a problem that goes beyond PG. Too many iso players that can't move the ball, or who do it too slowly. And motion or moving without the ball? LMAO, no.


What would you do about the lack of talent if you were in Brad's shoes?


Brad is basically screwed due to MANY Bad decisions before he took over.

1) The Two 2019 1rst Picks and Three 2020 1rst Round Picks would have brought in more talent if offered for veterans than spent on rookies. That was the percentage move to make, but for cap reasons, the team went with less talent by drafting rookies.

2) Awful drafting. Looking at just two years as an example:

Guerschon Yabusele (2016 #16) & Ante Zizic (2016 #23) were chosen over:
Caris LeVert - 2016 #20
Pascal Siakam - 2016 #27
Dejounte Murray - 2016 #29

Ivica Zubac - 2016 # 32
Malcolm Brogdan - 2016 #36


Marcus Smart (2014 #6) and James Young (2014 #17) were chosen over:
Julius Randle - 2014 #7
Zach LaVine - 2014 #13
Jusuf Nurkic - 2014 #16

Clint Capela - 2014 #25
Bogdan Bogdanovic - 2014 #27
Joe Harris - 2014 #33
Spencer Dinwiddie - 2014 #38
Jerami Grant - 2014 #39
Nikola Jokic - 2014 #41

Jordan Clarkson - 2014 #46


I really question if the previous Man in Charge pulled the actual game film (ENTIRE GAMES) on the Top 15 to 20 guys at every position, and copiously reviewed MANY COMPLETE games of each potential draftee. That is the only possible explanation for the huge misses in 2014 and 2016. There were 10 players available better than any Celtic pick in 2014 that were not drafted, and five better than either Celtic late 1rst in 2016. So, even though a GM is paid a MULIPLE of a 7 figure salary, it would seem that the previous GM did not copiously review actual game film. Can't for the life of me believe Ainge did. The only way they make the misses they did was if they went off "stats" and draft lists versus seeing for themselves the ones in the Top 75 to Top 100 worthy of attending multiple games IN PERSON (or, to not tip anyone off, just getting all the game film). (I don't mean Agents highlight reels, which can get a bum get drafted at #1 (Michael Olowokandi, Kwame Brown).

Moving forward, there is very little in the cupboard other than 7 1rst Round Picks (4 tradeable), none of which are guaranteed to be in the lottery, and Four 2nd Round Picks (2022; Portland's 2023; Houston, Dallas or Miami's 2023; Indiana or Miami's 2026).

So, looking at who is available that's better than Smart and worth their contract, there is no one right now that jumps off the map as a reasonable solution to what the Celtics could use. It's going to require a lot of patience to see who may become available that fits at a cost effective salary and trade equation (what you have to give up). I think every move Brad has made up to now has been a positive and insightful and well thought. I trust that the trend will continue. Normally I can propose reasonable trades with ease but the available pool right now of Point Guards and backup wings is somewhat dry. Every NBA player that can get a starting position at any of the 30 teams seems to opt for that, and the consummate pay, then being a backup. Every player that can be a backup on a better team than his alternatives tends to opt to be a backup where he is guaranteed the most minutes (and usually the salary to go with it) then a less certain situation. So part of the negotiation for a top talent is what you can guarantee him as to his role. Right now with Ime I don't think that any really talented guys are gonna be signing up to play for Ime unless it comes with a promise of a starter position or x # of minutes off the bench. And when you trade for a guy, you want him to buy into the situation rather than do it blindly. So resolving the minutes distribution for the PGs and backup wings is part of the deal in bringing in anyone of substance. The coaching staff has got to get their act together on what they want, how they will use the guy, and commit to him in advance for the player to want to get on board. Things like shots per game can even come into that discussion.
And if the player or his agent ask a question such as anticipated shots per game, and the Head Coach waffles in his answer, don't expect a player that can really help to jump on board. Just doesn't happen.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#57 » by Captain_Caveman » Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:42 am

Jammer wrote:
Kalela wrote:
Captain_Caveman wrote:The real problem is a lack of talent.

And coaching.

And injuries/COVID.

And not having personnel that fits each other offensively, which is a problem that goes beyond PG. Too many iso players that can't move the ball, or who do it too slowly. And motion or moving without the ball? LMAO, no.


What would you do about the lack of talent if you were in Brad's shoes?


Brad is basically screwed due to MANY Bad decisions before he took over.

1) The Two 2019 1rst Picks and Three 2020 1rst Round Picks would have brought in more talent if offered for veterans than spent on rookies. That was the percentage move to make, but for cap reasons, the team went with less talent by drafting rookies.

2) Awful drafting. Looking at just two years as an example:

Guerschon Yabusele (2016 #16) & Ante Zizic (2016 #23) were chosen over:
Caris LeVert - 2016 #20
Pascal Siakam - 2016 #27
Dejounte Murray - 2016 #29

Ivica Zubac - 2016 # 32
Malcolm Brogdan - 2016 #36


Marcus Smart (2014 #6) and James Young (2014 #17) were chosen over:
Julius Randle - 2014 #7
Zach LaVine - 2014 #13
Jusuf Nurkic - 2014 #16

Clint Capela - 2014 #25
Bogdan Bogdanovic - 2014 #27
Joe Harris - 2014 #33
Spencer Dinwiddie - 2014 #38
Jerami Grant - 2014 #39
Nikola Jokic - 2014 #41

Jordan Clarkson - 2014 #46


I really question if the previous Man in Charge pulled the actual game film (ENTIRE GAMES) on the Top 15 to 20 guys at every position, and copiously reviewed MANY COMPLETE games of each potential draftee. That is the only possible explanation for the huge misses in 2014 and 2016. There were 10 players available better than any Celtic pick in 2014 that were not drafted, and five better than either Celtic late 1rst in 2016. So, even though a GM is paid a MULIPLE of a 7 figure salary, it would seem that the previous GM did not copiously review actual game film. Can't for the life of me believe Ainge did. The only way they make the misses they did was if they went off "stats" and draft lists versus seeing for themselves the ones in the Top 75 to Top 100 worthy of attending multiple games IN PERSON (or, to not tip anyone off, just getting all the game film). (I don't mean Agents highlight reels, which can get a bum get drafted at #1 (Michael Olowokandi, Kwame Brown).

Moving forward, there is very little in the cupboard other than 7 1rst Round Picks (4 tradeable), none of which are guaranteed to be in the lottery, and Four 2nd Round Picks (2022; Portland's 2023; Houston, Dallas or Miami's 2023; Indiana or Miami's 2026).

So, looking at who is available that's better than Smart and worth their contract, there is no one right now that jumps off the map as a reasonable solution to what the Celtics could use. It's going to require a lot of patience to see who may become available that fits at a cost effective salary and trade equation (what you have to give up). I think every move Brad has made up to now has been a positive and insightful and well thought. I trust that the trend will continue. Normally I can propose reasonable trades with ease but the available pool right now of Point Guards and backup wings is somewhat dry. Every NBA player that can get a starting position at any of the 30 teams seems to opt for that, and the consummate pay, then being a backup. Every player that can be a backup on a better team than his alternatives tends to opt to be a backup where he is guaranteed the most minutes (and usually the salary to go with it) then a less certain situation. So part of the negotiation for a top talent is what you can guarantee him as to his role. Right now with Ime I don't think that any really talented guys are gonna be signing up to play for Ime unless it comes with a promise of a starter position or x # of minutes off the bench. And when you trade for a guy, you want him to buy into the situation rather than do it blindly. So resolving the minutes distribution for the PGs and backup wings is part of the deal in bringing in anyone of substance. The coaching staff has got to get their act together on what they want, how they will use the guy, and commit to him in advance for the player to want to get on board. Things like shots per game can even come into that discussion.
And if the player or his agent ask a question such as anticipated shots per game, and the Head Coach waffles in his answer, don't expect a player that can really help to jump on board. Just doesn't happen.


I don't see any of this the same way. No one cares about a pu-pu platter of draft picks outside the top 10. Look at any draft value chart. It would take like 20 late firsts to provide the same overall value as one pick in the 5-10 range, and even then, it is preferable to just have the one higher pick. While it sucks that we lost out on Bane and Thybulle, what you are really saying there is that we chose not to give up two late firsts for guys like an expiring Davis Bertans. Considering that those picks would have been Grant Williams and Pritchard, I don't think it's that solid a point.

There is also no GM in the history of the sport that looks good under the metric of whether to not they always drafted the best player available with all their picks, and especially outside of the top 10. Ainge was irrefutably one of the top drafters in the league if you are judging all teams and GMs by the same standards. He hit on all of the high picks he kept, he correctly traded out on the high picks he didn't keep, his hit rate outside the lottery was elite at all ranges of the draft, and a large majority of his picks would have gone higher in hypothetical redrafts.

If you are expecting a 100% hit rate outside of the lottery, that's beyond unfair. Might as well bash Ted Williams for only batting .400 in 1941, or Steph Curry for only hitting 43% percent of his career 3s. His draft record led to an average of one good to very good role player a year with nonlottery picks. That's almost unheard of, especially with the sheer amount of young players we have had fighting for minutes and reps. Talking about guys like Rondo, Bradley, TA, Al Jefferson, Big Baby, Perkins, Timelord, Pritchard, Grant Williams, Rozier, Gerald Green, Ojeleye, etc. When we traded picks, it led to guys like Ray Allen, IT, Kyrie, and even made the KG trade possible. Even with the bad luck on Kyrie, that's really good ROI relative to the value those picks had.

Even on some of the misses, there is a backstory. We drafted Yabusele and Zizic so that we could eurostash them for a year and preserve max cap room for Horford, which worked out pretty well for us.

As to Smart, don't like that one either. It was him or Randle, and Smart has had a more successful career than Randle in the aggregate. Randle is also on his third team, and the one that drafted him got little out of it. If there's something to be mad about with that pick, it's that he we didn't tank hard hard enough the year before and missed out on Embiid.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#58 » by Andrew McCeltic » Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:19 am

I liked Dejounte Murray a lot in the draft but he was rail-thin and had character questions. Think he was also coming off an injury. And we were doing those stupid stashes where Danny got too many picks and then couldn't get rid of them.
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#59 » by Andrew McCeltic » Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:20 am

Smart is good enough in raw value to be a starter on a championship team - but we might be better if he were more well-rounded, shave a little off his defensive impact and add it to his shooting and scoring..
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Re: The Real Problem -- Lack of a True Point Guard 

Post#60 » by Jaqua92 » Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:15 pm

Triple7 wrote:
fallguy wrote:
Celts17Pride wrote:I personally think there is a decent chance the Celtics might end up with De'Aaron Fox. I'm not in love with the player but I think there is a chance.

If I was the Kings front office I would look to move Fox, Bagley, Hield and Barnes for as much of a rebuilding package as I could get and start building the team around Haliburton and Mitchell. Kings are going nowhere.


Yeah, this is the kind of big swing that might actually be available - and one that wouldn't cost Jaylen.

I'm pretty lukewarm on him -- it's a lot of upside and downside potential with that salary. But he's probably tradeable again for good value so it's intriguing. Problem is you can't play him and Smart together at all.


You can’t play Smart with any player, especially to end games.
Yeah it's at the point where teams are daring him to shoot and it kills the spacing. Worse with a point guard.

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