Who will we keep?

[snowman]

So, just looking at our roster now that the regular season is over, and playoffs are here. I was just wondering who we will keep next year. Unless there is a major trade this summer, I really feel that Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford and Timelord has the starting spots locked up. (I think they will guarantee Horford for the season) I also feel that White, PP, Grant and Theis has the top 4 bench spots locked up and are going nowhere.

That leaves:
Nesmith 6'6
Hauser 6'8
Fitts 6'8
Kornet 7'1
Morgan 6'7
Ryan 6'7
Stauskas 6'6
Thomas 6'5
Nadar 6'3
Begarin 6'5
2021 2nd round pick

8 guys 6'5 to 6'8. Obliviously they are trying to find someone to fill the backup wing spots.
Grant is not a SF. White can play SG, but is a more natural fit at backup point, with PP being the third point. Looks like Nesmith has got some work to do. With all the TPE's we have looks like to me that Brad Stevens is not sold on him yet.

[Celts17Pride]

Respectfully it's way too early for this thread. What if the Celtics get swept in the 1st round? What if the Celtics win the NBA Championship?

What do the Celtics need to get over the hump that shows up in the playoffs?

A lot will be decided in the playoffs?

[Jammer]

Expect Back, barring a trade for a major difference maker:

Jayson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Rob Williams III
Al Horford
Marcus Smart
Derrick White
Payton Pritchard
Sam Hauser
Daniel Theis
Grant Williams
Nick Stauskas

That's 11 bodies. Yam Madar may get a spot (12). Juhann Begarin may get a 2-way.

Personally I'd try to trade Nesmith for 3 second round picks since the Celtics are void of second rounders in 4 of the next 7 drafts.

Replacing Nesmith's $3.8 Million salary with a minimum salary contract should be enough to keep the Celtics under next season's forecast luxury tax line of about $149 Million. i.e. Stauskas will only count for about $1.6M even though he will be paid nearly $2.2M

Guys like Luke Kornet and Malik Fitts status will be based on what's available on the free agent Market, and what the Celtics do in the draft (they will have a coin flip with Milwaukee and Philadelphia to determine the order of the #53, #54 and #55 picks). Believe it or not, both of those guys could end up back since the Celtics would be offering vet minimum for a Reserve Role (not a starter or backup, so the pickings are naturally thinner).

[bucknersrevenge]

Respectfully it's way too early for this thread. What if the Celtics get swept in the 1st round? What if the Celtics win the NBA Championship?

What do the Celtics need to get over the hump that shows up in the playoffs?

A lot will be decided in the playoffs?

Agreed.

I love speculation as much as anyone. But right now all of our spots are taken and more importantly, this season was originally meant to assess our ceiling after a new coach and significant roster changes. If we're being honest, we're still doing that and entering the most crucial stage of that assessment now.

[31to6]

sure it's too early, but the one thing that stands out is that there is a significant opportunity for Aaron Nesmith to develop into a rotation player. We are blessed with the Jays but still need a back-up 3. I'm a believer that he can be that, but after two regular seasons it's still a question mark. Here's hoping he has some success in the playoffs. Otherwise that 'spot' is open to Hauser (now and next year) and/or Begarin (maybe next year) or any random dude.

Speaking of random dudes, our third stringers are truly replacement-level third stringers, and I love that we're no longer beholden to undersized or mostly-injured former draft picks that we felt we 'had' to hang on to to get something out of. If any of this 6'5" bench brigade wants to emerge (in practice or workouts or summer league) and contend for an actual role, awesome. If not, restock the pond, there's always more Stauskases and Kornets in the sea.

[captain green]

Tatum brown smart timelord white thies pp cant will is the future I like jammers idea of trading for a couple second rounders for nesmith I think that's feasible. I'm on the fence about Mader and other guy spelling of his name so I guess bring one of them over. Keep one of Hauser or nic. horford has what two decent years left and that where I'd try to improve a pass first big to control the half court with defensive awareness. The rest don't impress much tobe honest

[Cricket23]

They gave up a couple of 2nd round picks to get the Fournier TPE so I fully expect them to use it.

[celticfan42487]

Well we'll keep the 2nd round pick because we have control.

The rest are absolutely expendable, as they were G league pick ups late in the year. We'll keep whomever is favorable for warm bodies.

Hopefully we don't think of any of these players because between the MLE and vet mins we've signs some really valuable experienced players that we can call on in specific matchups for the playoffs.

We really need an atheltic strong center as shown by Theis and Horford not being able to replicate the rebounding or rim protection of the TimeLord. And well we have MIL and PHIL to get through next year as well as this year. So that's where the big MLE money should go to. The rest try to get some diversification of skills on the team off the bench for situational basketball and matchups to give Ime some choices.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

Keep the current rotation of Tatum, Brown, Smart, Williams, Williams, Horford, White, Theis and Pritchard.

Add Hartenstein for the MLE.
Year 3 Nesmith as better wing depth than this season.
Another proven ballhandler or shooter into the TPE (the more I think about it the more I like Kennard's idea that steefP2 floated a while back).

We roll with 12 legitimate NBA players and have the depth and the versatility to get through the grind of the regular season. Can afford a consolidation trade and still field a playoff rotation with no real weak points. Would like to hold onto Hauser too.

[ryan in Maine]

So, just looking at our roster now that the regular season is over, and playoffs are here. I was just wondering who we will keep next year. Unless there is a major trade this summer, I really feel that Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford and Timelord has the starting spots locked up. (I think they will guarantee Horford for the season) I also feel that White, PP, Grant and Theis has the top 4 bench spots locked up and are going nowhere.

That leaves:
Nesmith 6'6
Hauser 6'8
Fitts 6'8
Kornet 7'1
Morgan 6'7
Ryan 6'7
Stauskas 6'6
Thomas 6'5
Nadar 6'3
Begarin 6'5
2021 2nd round pick

8 guys 6'5 to 6'8. Obliviously they are trying to find someone to fill the backup wing spots.
Grant is not a SF. White can play SG, but is a more natural fit at backup point, with PP being the third point. Looks like Nesmith has got some work to do. With all the TPE's we have looks like to me that Brad Stevens is not sold on him yet.

I had to laugh. Our 9-man rotation, that's basically running it back lol.

[sully00]

I think this is actually a good time to assess this roster. I think a short series can be too drastic in one direction or another can create a lot of bias, faced

I am of mind that the team is all in on Tatum and Brown. Lots of youth and versatility, lots of wins under their belts, faced down criticism and adversity. No one is untradeable but I think the replacement value on both players is through the roof at this point.

Rob Williams is a pretty perfect fit with the J's as far as his ability to impact that game with limited touches, obviously the injury scare is always there but team friendly contract I think makes him a lock for a couple of years.

Smart finally has emerged as the guy they thought they were getting with a lottery pick 8 years ago. He is getting to average on the offenseive end and in another world on the defensive end, paired with Rob Williams they sort of combine to be that 3rd star your looking for.

Horford is just a guy who is always better than his stats and generally tends to overperform. I am a big Al honk and even I couldn't believe it would be a lock to pick up his option in February and now it seems an easy decision. Can't believe he was 4th in mins on this team. He might still end up being sacrificed at the altar of trade assets in the offseason but nothing like it seemed when they traded for him in the offseason.

White has been a good fit even though his shooting has sucked at times. Takes some pressure off of Smart and is obviously a much better fit than Schroder. Not sure of his long term fit here, espeially as he has a moveable contract and he might be too simlilar too Smart to be the answer long term. But he helps you win games and would feel like you gave something up if you have to move him in a deal.

Theis just fits this team so well. Such a good investment at the deadline because he makes it possible not only to survive the injury to RW but also allows you move Horford if the right deal comes along without killing your defense.

Pritchard has had a nice run since the trade deadline. I am not sure there is more upside than what we are seeing but every good team needs a player like him.

Grant is the only guy who seemed to tail off after the All Star break. He was still decent but he struggled with his shot and just didn't seem to benefit from the roster changes. I like him and was really happy to seem him get his **** together this year, but with Theis back it almost feels like the roster needs more of a long 3 man than 3/4 tweener like Grant. I think he has also likely created some value for himself around the league. While he is no superstar he is young and could probably start for a lot of teams who need toughness, defense and the ability to knock down a 3. He would be fine to come back in his role but wouldn't shock me to seem him moved in as positive value in a deal.

Lost year for Nesmith though he showed some signs over the last few months when he played. Would like to let him run it back and get a shot to be that back up 3 man they need. Can't see him providing much value in a deal at this point so he is likely back for that reason alone.

Hauser should get another year who doesn't like a shooter.

They have the option on Stauskas but haven't seen enough to know that it matters. Don't expect to see the the Mainiacs back either. Hopefully they will have a nice long post season run and Boston will be at the top of everyone's list as a place to go ring chase next year and play for the minimum.

[The Corey's]

Regardless of what happens. I expect the Celtics to run it back. It's basically been their MO this entire regime.

[jfs1000d]

Well we'll keep the 2nd round pick because we have control.

The rest are absolutely expendable, as they were G league pick ups late in the year. We'll keep whomever is favorable for warm bodies.

Hopefully we don't think of any of these players because between the MLE and vet mins we've signs some really valuable experienced players that we can call on in specific matchups for the playoffs.

We really need an atheltic strong center as shown by Theis and Horford not being able to replicate the rebounding or rim protection of the TimeLord. And well we have MIL and PHIL to get through next year as well as this year. So that's where the big MLE money should go to. The rest try to get some diversification of skills on the team off the bench for situational basketball and matchups to give Ime some choices.

I think after the starting 5, grant, Pp, Theis it is Hauser and Nesmith


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[BK_2020]

Keep the current rotation of Tatum, Brown, Smart, Williams, Williams, Horford, White, Theis and Pritchard.

Add Hartenstein for the MLE.
Year 3 Nesmith as better wing depth than this season.
Another proven ballhandler or shooter into the TPE (the more I think about it the more I like Kennard's idea that steefP2 floated a while back).

We roll with 12 legitimate NBA players and have the depth and the versatility to get through the grind of the regular season. Can afford a consolidation trade and still field a playoff rotation with no real weak points. Would like to hold onto Hauser too.

One should let go of any Hartenstein dreams for multiple reasons.
Boston looks to be about $8 mil. into the tax if bringing everyone back, so the MLE is not available.
Even if the MLE was available, a player who commands the MLE is not signing to be the 3rd/4th string, and no team is going to use the full MLE on a third/4th string center.
Using the MLE and the TPE is also a non-starter. Using the full MLE hardcaps the team.

[Jammer]

...
One should let go of any Hartenstein dreams for multiple reasons.
Boston looks to be about $8 mil. into the tax if bringing everyone back, so the MLE is not available.
Even if the MLE was available, a player who commands the MLE is not signing to be the 3rd/4th string, and no team is going to use the full MLE on a third/4th string center.
Using the MLE and the TPE is also a non-starter. Using the full MLE hardcaps the team.

Replacing Nesmith's $3.8 Million salary with a minimum salary contract should be enough to keep the Celtics under next season's forecast luxury tax line of about $149 Million. i.e. Stauskas will only count for about $1.6M even though he will be paid nearly $2.2M

[BK_2020]

...
One should let go of any Hartenstein dreams for multiple reasons.
Boston looks to be about $8 mil. into the tax if bringing everyone back, so the MLE is not available.
Even if the MLE was available, a player who commands the MLE is not signing to be the 3rd/4th string, and no team is going to use the full MLE on a third/4th string center.
Using the MLE and the TPE is also a non-starter. Using the full MLE hardcaps the team.

Replacing Nesmith's $3.8 Million salary with a minimum salary contract should be enough to keep the Celtics under next season's forecast luxury tax line of about $149 Million. i.e. Stauskas will only count for about $1.6M even though he will be paid nearly $2.2M

Luxury tax is projected at $149 mil.
The Celtics are over $144 mil. with Tatum (30.3), Brown (27.2 not counting his unlikely incentives), Horford (26.5), Smart (17.2), White (16.9), Grant (4.3), Theis (8.7), Timelord (10.7), Pritchard (2.2). That's 9 dudes.
I don't think the Celtics can get under the cap just by dropping Nesmith's salary for a $2 mil. savings.

[ParticleMan]

we're definitely running it back next year. if there was any doubt of that the way we played after January sealed the deal. this teams deserves a full season together, now that's they've figure out Ime's system. if we can keep up that pace over a full year we are absolutely in the title convo. to me it's more about health than anything else.

as for the rest, i'd say hauser is an obvious keeper. madar and begarin will be around because why not, maybe they end up back overseas. if there is one guy who might be dangled a bit is nesmith, who obviously has talent but hasn't been able to put it together, some team might take a flyer on him. the rest of the roster is JAGs, easily replaceable from the G-league or whatnot. my guess is we will bring in some steady vet mins as break the glass players and solid locker room guys.

[Jammer]

...
One should let go of any Hartenstein dreams for multiple reasons.
Boston looks to be about $8 mil. into the tax if bringing everyone back, so the MLE is not available.
Even if the MLE was available, a player who commands the MLE is not signing to be the 3rd/4th string, and no team is going to use the full MLE on a third/4th string center.
Using the MLE and the TPE is also a non-starter. Using the full MLE hardcaps the team.

Replacing Nesmith's $3.8 Million salary with a minimum salary contract should be enough to keep the Celtics under next season's forecast luxury tax line of about $149 Million. i.e. Stauskas will only count for about $1.6M even though he will be paid nearly $2.2M

Luxury tax is projected at $149 mil.
The Celtics are over $144 mil. with Tatum (30.3), Brown (27.2 not counting his unlikely incentives), Horford (26.5), Smart (17.2), White (16.9), Grant (4.3), Theis (8.7), Timelord (10.7), Pritchard (2.2). That's 9 dudes.
I don't think the Celtics can get under the cap just by dropping Nesmith's salary for a $2 mil. savings.

30,351,843 Tatum
26,669,643 Brown
26,500,000 Horford
16,607,142 Smart
16,392,857 White
10,700,000 Rob Williams III
8,790,698 Theis
4,306,281 Grant Williams
3,804,360 Nesmith
2,239,200 Pritchard
1,811,516 Stauskas (actual salary is 2,193,920)
1,563,518 Hauser
1,004,159 Yam Madar ?
92,857 Demetrius Jackson (stretch from several years ago)

The above 13 Players total 150,831,074. Replacing Nesmith with a player making 1.8M knocks off 2M to 148,831,274 which brings them under but with only 13 guys. If they replace Nesmith with someone making only 1M then then have enough for another guy at minimum as well (14). So they could add their second round pick plus one more minimum salary player but they'd be running with 14 guys if they bring Stauskas back and swap Nesmith for some second round picks while adding a minimum salary player.

To stay under the tax they might have to choose between Stauskas and someone like Kornet if they are only going to run with 14 guys plus two 2-ways. But that would probably depend on who they use their second round pick on and which minimum salary player they bring in to the roster spot Nesmith had.

Maybe they bring Begarin over as a 2-way.

So, if they trade Nesmith for second round picks, it COULD look like:

30,351,843 Tatum
26,669,643 Brown
26,500,000 Horford
16,607,142 Smart
16,392,857 White
10,700,000 Rob Williams III
8,790,698 Theis
4,306,281 Grant Williams
2,239,200 Pritchard
1,811,516 Stauskas (actual salary is 2,193,920)
1,563,518 Hauser
1,004,159 Yam Madar ?
1,004,159 2nd Round Pick
1,004,159 Minimum Salary player with 0 years experience
92,857 Demetrius Jackson (stretch from several years ago)

Above Totals 149,038,032 for 14 Men.

Then they'd still have 2 Two-Way Spots to fill which would give them additional depth.

But depending on who their second round pick is and who their minimum salary player is could force them to make a choice, position wise, between retaining Stauskas versus Luke Kornet or a player like Kornet (size wise) if they only keep 14 men to stay under the luxury tax line and get re-funded their pro-rata portion of the luxury tax payers payments (could be like a $4 Million gift payment).

[Scoonie]

I would definitely give Aaron Nesmith another year, maybe two. Still a lot of potential there.

[Jammer]

I would definitely give Aaron Nesmith another year, maybe two. Still a lot of potential there.

Based on the above analysis, the cost of keeping Nesmith is an additional $9.6 Million over and above a minimum salary replacement ($2.8M additional salary, plus $2.8M luxury tax plus loss of 4M refund from lux tax paying teams). Given the choice of adding two second round picks to their depleted war chest versus paying Nesmith 9.6M over a replacement player to stick around another year, they'd really have to believe he's a SURE THING. Which he's not. Right now it's crystal clear to date that Hauser has outplayed Nesmith by a WIDE MARGIN. IQ is much higher. Decision making is much better. Just don't see Wyc gambling 9.6 Million bucks when he could have 2 second rounders, 9.6 Million in his pocket and a replacement player that might turn out to be as good as Nesmith (an argument can be made that Hauser and/or Stauskas have already replaced Nesmith).