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Looks like we actually need a Thread, just for the Finals.
This will be 1 Thread, for all the remaining games.

Went to the game in Denver. For all the slander we’re giving Miami for their “lack of talent”, they’re a damn good basketball team. I think you see a bit better live how they play as one, everyone knows what to do to the t and everyone takes responsibility when their number is called. Still think the Nuggets win this series but its unfortunately not a fluke Miami is playing in the finals. They eliminated two really good teams to get there.

Miami executed a perfect gameplan. It was so tough for any Nugget outside of Jokic to get good looks. Murray was trapped and double teamed at every occasion. It's incredible how a rotation that include guys like Strus, Robinson, and Love can still look like a cohesive defensive unit. Tells a lot about how coaching and having a good system matters more in defense than having a group composed of all capable defenders.

flintsky21 wrote:Miami executed a perfect gameplan. It was so tough for any Nugget outside of Jokic to get good looks. Murray was trapped and double teamed at every occasion. It's incredible how a rotation that include guys like Strus, Robinson, and Love can still look like a cohesive defensive unit. Tells a lot about how coaching and having a good system matters more in defense than having a group composed of all capable defenders.

Their role players will need to make the wide open shots. Miami keeps getting away with overcommitting and it has worked for them. So they will continue doing it probably. The same way they did it to Tatum.

Heat has just gotten lucky with their hot shooting this postseason.

Hal14 wrote:Heat has just gotten lucky with their hot shooting this postseason.

Read on Twitter

They've shot *extremely* well whatever one wants to call it. On the other hand, I do think Boston has bought into the analytics of it just a tad much.

Ie, we know the average expected value for various shot types and shot qualities. My suspicion is that the team has fallen a bit too in love with this idea and has forgotten that you don't just get the shot, you have to, you know, actually hit the shot.

There's no points awarded for xPPS opportunities, only times the ball goes in the basket. IOW perhaps they've made the means the end a bit much.

165bows wrote:

Hal14 wrote:Heat has just gotten lucky with their hot shooting this postseason.

Read on Twitter

They've shot *extremely* well whatever one wants to call it. On the other hand, I do think Boston has bought into the analytics of it just a tad much.

Ie, we know the average expected value for various shot types and shot qualities. My suspicion is that the team has fallen a bit too in love with this idea and has forgotten that you don't just get the shot, you have to, you know, actually hit the shot.

There's no points awarded for xPPS opportunities, only times the ball goes in the basket. IOW perhaps they've made the means the end a bit much.

Yeah but at the end of the day, basketball is subject to luck-based variances that even a 7 game series cannot completely smooth over. You don't have control over whether you hit your shots at the expected value or above, just somewhat control whether you get those shots or not.
I think it's fair to call Miami's run lucky, and to say that with average or slightly above average luck, Miami would've crashed out of the playoffs a while ago, without discrediting what they are doing.

Crazy. All dues given to Miami but I can’t believe we lost that series still. We’d have had a chance.

BK_2020 wrote:

165bows wrote:

Hal14 wrote:Heat has just gotten lucky with their hot shooting this postseason.

Read on Twitter

They've shot *extremely* well whatever one wants to call it. On the other hand, I do think Boston has bought into the analytics of it just a tad much.

Ie, we know the average expected value for various shot types and shot qualities. My suspicion is that the team has fallen a bit too in love with this idea and has forgotten that you don't just get the shot, you have to, you know, actually hit the shot.

There's no points awarded for xPPS opportunities, only times the ball goes in the basket. IOW perhaps they've made the means the end a bit much.

Yeah but at the end of the day, basketball is subject to luck-based variances that even a 7 game series cannot completely smooth over. You don't have control over whether you hit your shots at the expected value or above, just somewhat control whether you get those shots or not.
I think it's fair to call Miami's run lucky, and to say that with average or slightly above average luck, Miami would've crashed out of the playoffs a while ago, without discrediting what they are doing.

Agree they don't have control, but I would say there is some influence.

Ie, fatigue, focus/headspace etc play a real role and imo you can see some of it as a fan. They measure the factors around the shot but how does that tell you the state of the shooter.

IMo some shots can be geared up for while set/jump shot threes are more of a focused relaxation sort of thing.

lon3lytoaster wrote:Crazy. All dues given to Miami but I can’t believe we lost that series still. We’d have had a chance.

Game 2 shows you how important coaches are in winning games. Spo helped win that game. Joe cost us playoff games. Big difference.

Green89 wrote:

lon3lytoaster wrote:Crazy. All dues given to Miami but I can’t believe we lost that series still. We’d have had a chance.

Game 2 shows you how important coaches are in winning games. Spo helped win that game. Joe cost us playoff games. Big difference.

So much yes for this

Would hate for MPJ to be on the Cs.

lol. Wow, I just learned that Bam's real name is Eldrice:

https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-anthro?SeasonYear=2017-18

Do with that information what you will. I'm still processing it myself lol.

zoyathedestroya wrote:Would hate for MPJ to be on the Cs.

Read on Twitter

He's like a tall Jaylen Brown, down to his handles.

I didn't think Miami would win a game but I guess I can never count them out.

lon3lytoaster wrote:Crazy. All dues given to Miami but I can’t believe we lost that series still. We’d have had a chance.

To me, on paper, we match better vs the Nuggets than MIA does, but MIA has been overperforming so damn big, that I dunno. I don't think the Nuggets would be able to stop Brown and Tatum if they are playing up to their potenial. To me, Gordon is not quick enough for Tatum and Pope is too small to guard Brown. I also think White would do whatever he wants vs Murray on offense if given the touches.

FlatearthZorro wrote:

lon3lytoaster wrote:Crazy. All dues given to Miami but I can’t believe we lost that series still. We’d have had a chance.

To me, on paper, we match better vs the Nuggets than MIA does, but MIA has been overperforming so damn big, that I dunno. I don't think the Nuggets would be able to stop Brown and Tatum if they are playing up to their potenial. To me, Gordon is not quick enough for Tatum and Pope is too small to guard Brown. I also think White would do whatever he wants vs Murray on offense if given the touches.

Jamal Murray is 6'5 in shoes and 215 lbs. He's big. He only looks small because everyone else on the Nuggets is so damn big.

BK_2020 wrote:

FlatearthZorro wrote:

lon3lytoaster wrote:Crazy. All dues given to Miami but I can’t believe we lost that series still. We’d have had a chance.

To me, on paper, we match better vs the Nuggets than MIA does, but MIA has been overperforming so damn big, that I dunno. I don't think the Nuggets would be able to stop Brown and Tatum if they are playing up to their potenial. To me, Gordon is not quick enough for Tatum and Pope is too small to guard Brown. I also think White would do whatever he wants vs Murray on offense if given the touches.

Jamal Murray is 6'5 in shoes and 215 lbs. He's big. He only looks small because everyone else on the Nuggets is so damn big.

Have you watched the guy? He's not 6'5 and definitely not taller than White. Also, on defense we can throw Brown/Smart/Murray on Murray who are WAY better than Vincent, Robinson, Martin on defense. Or at least they have been for a dang long time.

NBA's measurements are phony as hell. Tatum is probably not 6'8. Brown is not 6'7. Smart is not 6'4...

Those three would have 0% shooting on the Celtics cos they won't even see the floor.

This type of offense needs commitment, discipline, connectedness, (not even high IQ from every player), and thousands of reps.