538 RAPTOR

[redslastlaugh]

If anyone on the board was a fan of 538s publicly available RAPTOR stat when that was around, you might be interested that statistician Neil Paine still publishes the data (including daily playoff updates) on his personal sub stack:

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings

I just discovered this fact today and thought I’d share it if anyone likes the analytics.

Some really interesting numbers from a Celts perspective.

[BK_2020]

These things are great for small sample size fun.
IT4 the worst performer in the playoffs with -46.4 RAPTOR. Theis is 4th best just one spot below Thanasis. Tillman making an appearance as well in the top 5.

[Fencer reregistered]

If anyone on the board was a fan of 538s publicly available RAPTOR stat when that was around, you might be interested that statistician Neil Paine still publishes the data (including daily playoff updates) on his personal sub stack:

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings

I just discovered this fact today and thought I’d share it if anyone likes the analytics.

Some really interesting numbers from a Celts perspective.

The WAR gap among players #6-19 is hilariously small.

[La Flame]

These things are great for small sample size fun.
IT4 the worst performer in the playoffs with -46.4 RAPTOR. Theis is 4th best just one spot below Thanasis. Tillman making an appearance as well in the top 5.

IT was a killer man. I miss him so much.

[brackdan70]

I really appreciate this link so a shameless bump.

[Celts17Pride]

If anyone on the board was a fan of 538s publicly available RAPTOR stat when that was around, you might be interested that statistician Neil Paine still publishes the data (including daily playoff updates) on his personal sub stack:

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings

I just discovered this fact today and thought I’d share it if anyone likes the analytics.

Some really interesting numbers from a Celts perspective.

Thanks!

I'm really surprised. Reading the General Board the last few days, I would have thought that Dereck Lively II would be #1 by an extremely wide margin.

[31to6]

If anyone on the board was a fan of 538s publicly available RAPTOR stat when that was around, you might be interested that statistician Neil Paine still publishes the data (including daily playoff updates) on his personal sub stack:

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings

I just discovered this fact today and thought I’d share it if anyone likes the analytics.

Some really interesting numbers from a Celts perspective.

Thanks!

I'm really surprised. Reading the General Board the last few days, I would have thought that Dereck Lively II would be #1 by an extremely wide margin.

he's also probably #1 on BBallRef's HOF probability calculator now, at an unprecedented 102% since two weeks after the trade deadline

[The Corey's]

Didn't the 538 have the Celtics winning 2022 title?

[redslastlaugh]

Two weeks into the new season, Neil Paine still publishing mini-RAPTOR statistical analysis.

Three Celtics are top 11 in Raptor Wins Above Replacement (WAR):

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast

1. Jayson Tatum
4. Derrick White
11. Payton Pritchard

lol, Payton playing like a max player on a $7 million number, that’s nuts, I luv it!

[redslastlaugh]

NBA RAPTOR Leaderboard (> 300 min.)

1. Nikola Jokic
2. Tatum
3. SGA
4. Giannis
5. Franz
6. Derrick White
7. Jalen Williams
8. Chris Paul
9. Siakam
10. Kyrie Irving
11. Darius Garland
12. Victor Wembanyama
13. Anthony Davis
14. Donovan Mitchell
15. Payton Pritchard

[playa-hater]

NBA RAPTOR Leaderboard (> 300 min.)

1. Nikola Jokic
2. Tatum
3. SGA
4. Giannis
5. Franz
6. Derrick White
7. Jalen Williams
8. Chris Paul
9. Siakam
10. Kyrie Irving
11. Darius Garland
12. Victor Wembanyama
13. Anthony Davis
14. Donovan Mitchell
15. Payton Pritchard

I am so curious to see what Pritchard could do with a team where he is not held back by many Star players ahead of him. After Boston 3 peats I want him to have his own team.

[redslastlaugh]

two rounds of playoff data and 538/Neil Paine RAPTOR ranks Jayson Tatum #1 in playoff wins above replacement (WAR) ...

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast

[brackdan70]

two rounds of playoff data and 538/Neil Paine RAPTOR ranks Jayson Tatum #1 in playoff wins above replacement (WAR) ...

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast

Interesting. He was great in the Orlando series and game 3. Even in his bad games he has been Beasting on the boards and playing good D.
I wonder what other advanced metrics like EPM and LEBRON have him at. I think for both the playoff data requires subscription.

[redslastlaugh]

It's been a tenet of team building that the best path to contention is to tank your way to a top-3 pick.
Interestingly, looking at 538's metric WAR, only 3 players in the TOP 20 were selected in the top 3: Ant Edward, Chet Holmgren and Jayson Tatum

https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2024-25-nba-forecast

Here is the top 20 by RAPTOR

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2 Nikola Jokić 29 DEN C 14 563 +3.1 +1.2 +4.3 2.2 12.6
3 Anthony Edwards 23 MIN SG 14 546 +3.6 +0.7 +4.3 2.1 12.4
4 Jalen Williams 23 OKC SG 15 521 +3.0 +1.4 +4.4 2.0 11.2
5 Jaden McDaniels 24 MIN PF 14 476 +2.3 +2.4 +4.8 2.0 11.6
6 Jayson Tatum 26 BOS PF 8 322 +3.6 +4.3 +7.9 1.9 14.2
7 Tyrese Haliburton 24 IND PG 13 456 +3.5 +0.8 +4.4 1.8 11.1
8 Aaron Nesmith 25 IND SF 13 393 +3.1 +1.2 +4.3 1.5 9.5
9 Alex Caruso 30 OKC SG 15 336 +1.9 +3.2 +5.2 1.5 8.0
10 Pascal Siakam 30 IND PF 13 431 +3.3 +0.0 +3.3 1.4 8.9
11 Donovan Mitchell 28 CLE SG 9 288 +6.4 −0.6 +5.9 1.4 12.6
12 Julius Randle 30 MIN PF 14 502 +2.9 −0.7 +2.2 1.4 8.0
13 Josh Hart 29 NYK SG 15 550 +1.2 +0.6 +1.8 1.3 7.3
14 Chet Holmgren 22 OKC C 15 443 +0.0 +2.7 +2.7 1.3 7.1
15 Jimmy Butler 35 GSW SF 11 397 +3.6 −0.7 +2.8 1.2 8.3
16 Derrick White 30 BOS SG 11 415 +2.9 −0.4 +2.6 1.2 8.8
17 Jalen Brunson 28 NYK PG 15 575 +3.9 −2.8 +1.2 1.2 6.5
18 Andrew Nembhard 25 IND SG 13 438 +2.3 −0.1 +2.2 1.2 7.3
19 Jarrett Allen 26 CLE C 9 261 +2.9 +2.2 +5.0 1.1 10.2
20 Jamal Murray 27

And of the top 50 (!) players in playoff production only 17 (!) of 50 were even top 10 picks in their respective drafts. 33/50 in RAPTOR WAR this playoffs were NOT picked in the top 10!
Interesting