Messing Around with the Rotation

[ConstableGeneva]

This is a hybrid of what I anticipate the rotation would be + what I want the rotation to be + what we've seen from last season. Rotation changes game-to-game so this is just a sample rotation of a typical game (non-marquee matchup and game where everyone but KP is available). For this exercise, Kristaps isn't available yet. I expect Mazzulla to use a 9-man rotation most nights but I do hope for Walsh to become part of the regular rotation instead of only playing mostly garbage time (likely wishful thinking).

Some Notes:
• Last season, our regular starting five spent about 17 mpg on the floor together. Below, it's around 18 mpg. Likely goes down if we see more garbage time.
• Kornet is the only non-shooter. But in any case, I limited the minutes with both Walsh and Kornet on the floor.
• Made sure I had extended minutes with PP-JH-SH-JT-LK. That lineup (+33.7 net) destroyed second units last season on small sample.
• Made sure either JT or JB is always on the floor. JT can run with 0 starters. JB has at least two with him.
• I feel iffy about the Tillman single-big lineups (11 mins.) but if we're limiting Horford's minutes and limiting to 10 guys (no Queta), then it's bound to happen unless we want Kornet playing more (not necessarily a bad idea). I just made sure Tatum plays in those minutes.
• Ending Qs strong with Tatum-led bench lineups or the starting five.
• Hauser and Pritchard are ready for more minutes. This reflects that (numbers below don't include garbage time).
• Holiday's minutes go down a bit.
• Load manage by resting them for certain games (B2Bs, vs. weak teams, etc.) but not within the games they play.
• Hot take: I don't think Walker would be effective in sparse minutes the way I imagine Walsh could still be. Walker would be more useful playing 20-25 minutes when one of the top scorers are down.
• [can't think of any more notes right now.]

1st Half:



2nd Half:



Minutes Distribution:



For those of you who want to play around with team's rotation: https://app.thehoopsgeek.com/rotation-maker

[threrf23]

With KP out, I would personally love to see Queta get a chance in the starting center role.

Al/Luke probably deserve it if they want it - and may be better options to boot. But they're boring in the sense that we already know what they can & can't do, and how they mesh with everyone else.

Look at Isaiah Hartenstein before last season; high motor but slightly raw, foul prone Center. Maybe less raw than Queta, but if you go and look, his numbers per 36 were similar. Career stats, per 36:

Hartenstein: 12 pts, 64% FG, 69% FT, 11.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2 turnovers, 1.4 steals, 1.8 blocks, 4.9 fouls

Queta: 15.8 pts, 60% FG, 66% FT, 12.2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.5 turnovers, 1.4 steals, 3.2 blocks, 5.6 fouls

Hartenstein had been a backup center and an afterthought to many people, with a little bit of improvement and the right opportunity, he got himself a $30m/year contract in free agency.

[darrendaye]

With KP out, I would personally love to see Queta get a chance in the starting center role.

Al/Luke probably deserve it if they want it - and may be better options to boot. But they're boring in the sense that we already know what they can & can't do, and how they mesh with everyone else.

Look at Isaiah Hartenstein before last season; high motor but slightly raw, foul prone Center. Maybe less raw than Queta, but if you go and look, his numbers per 36 were similar. Career stats, per 36:

Hartenstein: 12 pts, 64% FG, 69% FT, 11.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2 turnovers, 1.4 steals, 1.8 blocks, 4.9 fouls

Queta: 15.8 pts, 60% FG, 66% FT, 12.2 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.5 turnovers, 1.4 steals, 3.2 blocks, 5.6 fouls

Hartenstein had been a backup center and an afterthought to many people, with a little bit of improvement and the right opportunity, he got himself a $30m/year contract in free agency.

Agree whole-heartedly. You want Queta in a position to help if there is a need in the playoffs due to injury or temporary specific needs. Same for Springer if he remains on the team past the deadline.

[playa-hater]

This is a hybrid of what I anticipate the rotation would be + what I want the rotation to be + what we've seen from last season. Rotation changes game-to-game so this is just a sample rotation of a typical game (non-marquee matchup and game where everyone but KP is available). For this exercise, Kristaps isn't available yet. I expect Mazzulla to use a 9-man rotation most nights but I do hope for Walsh to become part of the regular rotation instead of only playing mostly garbage time (likely wishful thinking).

Some Notes:
• Last season, our regular starting five spent about 17 mpg on the floor together. Below, it's around 18 mpg. Likely goes down if we see more garbage time.
• Kornet is the only non-shooter. But in any case, I limited the minutes with both Walsh and Kornet on the floor.
• Made sure I had extended minutes with PP-JH-SH-JT-LK. That lineup (+33.7 net) destroyed second units last season on small sample.
• Made sure either JT or JB is always on the floor. JT can run with 0 starters. JB has at least two with him.
• I feel iffy about the Tillman single-big lineups (11 mins.) but if we're limiting Horford's minutes and limiting to 10 guys (no Queta), then it's bound to happen unless we want Kornet playing more (not necessarily a bad idea). I just made sure Tatum plays in those minutes.
• Ending Qs strong with Tatum-led bench lineups or the starting five.
• Hauser and Pritchard are ready for more minutes. This reflects that (numbers below don't include garbage time).
• Holiday's minutes go down a bit.
• Load manage by resting them for certain games (B2Bs, vs. weak teams, etc.) but not within the games they play.
• Hot take: I don't think Walker would be effective in sparse minutes the way I imagine Walsh could still be. Walker would be more useful playing 20-25 minutes when one of the top scorers are down.
• [can't think of any more notes right now.]

1st Half:



2nd Half:



Minutes Distribution:




For those of you who want to play around with team's rotation: https://app.thehoopsgeek.com/rotation-maker

Great post/thread. For the most part the minutes assigned is just about right
IMO. There should be a No Horford minutes listed as well since he will sit out on B2Bs. Do we just split them with Kornet and X Man? or does Queta get a big chunk of Al's minutes??

Or does Boston just go a bit smaller and give Walsh and/or Hauser more minutes when Al sits??

*** If Walsh gets "9" minutes as described, then I rather have all 9 in a row (first half) then a split of 5 and 4.. short sporadic minutes will not give him a good feel or flow of the game.

[ConstableGeneva]

Spoiler:

This is a hybrid of what I anticipate the rotation would be + what I want the rotation to be + what we've seen from last season. Rotation changes game-to-game so this is just a sample rotation of a typical game (non-marquee matchup and game where everyone but KP is available). For this exercise, Kristaps isn't available yet. I expect Mazzulla to use a 9-man rotation most nights but I do hope for Walsh to become part of the regular rotation instead of only playing mostly garbage time (likely wishful thinking).

Some Notes:
• Last season, our regular starting five spent about 17 mpg on the floor together. Below, it's around 18 mpg. Likely goes down if we see more garbage time.
• Kornet is the only non-shooter. But in any case, I limited the minutes with both Walsh and Kornet on the floor.
• Made sure I had extended minutes with PP-JH-SH-JT-LK. That lineup (+33.7 net) destroyed second units last season on small sample.
• Made sure either JT or JB is always on the floor. JT can run with 0 starters. JB has at least two with him.
• I feel iffy about the Tillman single-big lineups (11 mins.) but if we're limiting Horford's minutes and limiting to 10 guys (no Queta), then it's bound to happen unless we want Kornet playing more (not necessarily a bad idea). I just made sure Tatum plays in those minutes.
• Ending Qs strong with Tatum-led bench lineups or the starting five.
• Hauser and Pritchard are ready for more minutes. This reflects that (numbers below don't include garbage time).
• Holiday's minutes go down a bit.
• Load manage by resting them for certain games (B2Bs, vs. weak teams, etc.) but not within the games they play.
• Hot take: I don't think Walker would be effective in sparse minutes the way I imagine Walsh could still be. Walker would be more useful playing 20-25 minutes when one of the top scorers are down.
• [can't think of any more notes right now.]

1st Half:



2nd Half:



Minutes Distribution:




For those of you who want to play around with team's rotation: https://app.thehoopsgeek.com/rotation-maker

Great post/thread. For the most part the minutes assigned is just about right
IMO. There should be a No Horford minutes listed as well since he will sit out on B2Bs. Do we just split them with Kornet and X Man? or does Queta get a big chunk of Al's minutes??

Or does Boston just go a bit smaller and give Walsh and/or Hauser more minutes when Al sits??

*** If Walsh gets "9" minutes as described, then I rather have all 9 in a row (first half) then a split of 5 and 4.. short sporadic minutes will not give him a good feel or flow of the game.

If any of Horford/Kornet/Tillman is unavailable, Queta should get the minutes. I'd even play Queta over Kornet/Tillman depending on the team they're playing.

Good point on Walsh just playing one long stretch. So that's likely in the 1st half the way Stevens used to do.

There just aren't many minutes for everyone (when healthy). Even less once KP comes back. I think they will still prioritize winning regular season games and getting a higher seed. Hope they find a nice balance of sprinkling in minutes for our developmental guys.

[phincsfan]

Good write up.

I'd like to see Sam and PP average more minutes. IMO, 25mpg each. an extra 2 or 3 minutes doesn't sound like a lot but an extra minute each qtr they're out there takes some wear off Jrue, JT and JB. I think they've proven at least in the regular season that they won't hurt you. In the playoffs those numbers will obviously drop but that's where load management with Jrue, JB and JT come into play during the reg season.

[djFan71]

I like it but you forgot the 4 in front of Jordan's 9 minutes.

[ConstableGeneva]

I like it but you forgot the 4 in front of Jordan's 9 minutes.

Should've made it clear this was regular season rotation and not the Finals.

[hugepatsfan]

I really like this layout.

I think the starter minutes might be too low for what this exercise seems to be though. This seems to be forecasting a competitive game through the end where everyone is healthy (besides Porzingis obviously).

Tatum averaged 35.7 minutes last year. This drops him to 35. But think of how many blowouts there were he sat the 4th quarter or a good chunk of it. That all factors into his minutes per game. So in order for him to have ended at 35.7 minutes/game last year, in the type of fully competitive, everyone available game like this exercise seems to be simulating, he'd have to play extra minutes to make up for those games he didn't play through the end in.

Also, as an organization, the Celtics also seem to prefer full off days to rest players vs. lowering minutes in the games they do appear. So if the Celtics want to lower minutes for guys, I think they'll do that via more off days than lowering their per game minutes. And in a game one of them sits, other players will play more and that will inflate their minutes per game.

So with all that said, I think in an exercise like this I'd probably chop like 5 minutes each off Hauser/Pritchard and re-assign to the starters. That looks off and like we're overworking the starters and under utilizing our best bench guys, but blowouts where starters rest late and load management/scheduled days off will correct that.



So TL;DR I think the OP settled on full season numbers to target, but when you add in the context of games players and factoring in blowouts I don't think it looks like this on a game to game rotation basis.

[CelticsFTW]

Amazing work!

I would like to know what you think about how Amany minutes Hauser will get this season?
Last season the month before playoffs he got approx. 26 I think

[ConstableGeneva]

I got this all wrong 'cos no one's gonna play more than 30 mpg and Tatum isn't playing 4th quarters.