Don't Fear The Repea(te)r

[djFan71]

The repeater taxes are harsh, no way around it. This site breaks it down pretty nicely.
https://www.salaryswish.com/luxury-tax/2026

But if you look at it, it gets more and more punitive as you go up. If you have appetite for SOME tax, but not $238M, there's room to work with.

If you stay < $17M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$67M in tax.
If you stay < $11M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$36M in tax.

The repeater rates don't escalate the more years you're in it (as far as I can tell). So, if you budget that the next 5 years you're good with paying on average $50M extra per year, you don't have to be so vigilant in ducking things this year. Don't worry about resetting the repeater, but instead keep good basketball players and salary range within the reasonable tax brackets.

If you're $17M over this year that means you can:
- drop Jrue/KP
- keep Hauser
- sign Kornet for $5-6M
- have ~$35M to round out the roster with 3-4 guys.

Instead of only $18M for 3-4 guys to duck the tax, and pay other teams to take on $, or waive/stretch bad contracts, etc.

If they're the right guys on deals that extend another year or 2, you could be less over the tax next year as the cap/tax rises more than your salaries.

I think when Brad handed out these extension deals, they had some version of that in mind. Look, we'll pay tax, but try not to pay ALL the taxes. Big difference from $238M to $67M. About.... $171M.

Gimme more cowbell!

[Shak_Celts]

The repeater taxes are harsh, no way around it. This site breaks it down pretty nicely.
https://www.salaryswish.com/luxury-tax/2026

But if you look at it, it gets more an more punitive as you go up. If you have appetite for SOME tax, but not $238M, there's room to work with.

If you stay < $17M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$67M in tax.
If you stay < $11M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$36M in tax.

The repeater rates don't escalate the more years you're in it (as far as I can tell). So, if you budget that the next 5 years you're good with paying on average $50M extra per year, you don't have to be so vigilant in ducking things this year. Don't worry about resetting the repeater, but instead keep good basketball players and salary range within the reasonable tax brackets.

If you're $17M over this year that means you can:
- drop Jrue/KP
- keep Hauser
- sign Kornet for $5-6M
- have ~$35M to round out the roster with 3-4 guys.

Instead of only $18M for 3-4 guys to duck the tax, and pay other teams to take on $, or waive/stretch bad contracts, etc.

If they're the right guys on deals that extend another year or 2, you could be less over the tax next year as the cap/tax rises more than your salaries.

I think when Brad handed out these extension deals, they had some version of that in mind. Look, we'll pay tax, but try not to pay ALL the taxes. Big difference from $238M to $67M. About.... $171M.

Gimme more cowbell!

I don’t understand any of it.

I do know the top tier players are still forcing their way to only teams willing to shell out all the money… still the few teams they always force their way to. I don’t care what a team is willing to give up for Giannis, if he doesn’t like the team or he feels they can’t surround him with a stacked roster, he isn’t going there. He isn’t going to the Wizards, for example. This isn’t stopping the few teams/players from making super teams!

The nuggets have Jokic, none of the big names are ever rumored to be joining him. Imagine how good they could be if the big names over the past few season wanted to go there or if the nuggets were willing to spend.

The league is trying to penalize these handful of teams, while they are still stacking with the best players.


Edit: okay, you got me, it’s penalizing the Celtics!!

[Marvel]

The repeater taxes are harsh, no way around it. This site breaks it down pretty nicely.
https://www.salaryswish.com/luxury-tax/2026

But if you look at it, it gets more an more punitive as you go up. If you have appetite for SOME tax, but not $238M, there's room to work with.

If you stay < $17M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$67M in tax.
If you stay < $11M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$36M in tax.

The repeater rates don't escalate the more years you're in it (as far as I can tell). So, if you budget that the next 5 years you're good with paying on average $50M extra per year, you don't have to be so vigilant in ducking things this year. Don't worry about resetting the repeater, but instead keep good basketball players and salary range within the reasonable tax brackets.

If you're $17M over this year that means you can:
- drop Jrue/KP
- keep Hauser
- sign Kornet for $5-6M
- have ~$35M to round out the roster with 3-4 guys.

Instead of only $18M for 3-4 guys to duck the tax, and pay other teams to take on $, or waive/stretch bad contracts, etc.

If they're the right guys on deals that extend another year or 2, you could be less over the tax next year as the cap/tax rises more than your salaries.

I think when Brad handed out these extension deals, they had some version of that in mind. Look, we'll pay tax, but try not to pay ALL the taxes. Big difference from $238M to $67M. About.... $171M.

Gimme more cowbell!

I was following you until you said "keep Hauser".

[brackdan70]

Embrace the reaper.

[165bows]

I think it’s a very viable option though with Tatum’s injury there’s an argument to be made to spend less now to spend more in the future.

[ThePigeon]

Not my money - keep the team intact and heal

Watch on YouTube

[brackdan70]

Great points. It’s those upper tiers of the repeater that are the big problem. Just shaving off 12 million or so to drop a couple tiers is like a cool 100m in taxes. The Celtics are a profitable team when paying less than 80ish million in taxes…so I could see the logic that there is no need to panic sell just to get out of the tax as long as they can reduce it to a sustainable level. 26/27….if they do nothing and just draft using their picks they currently own they will be about 12 million over the tax. This is sustainable I think ( not my money)….about a 40 million dollar tax bill.

[djFan71]

To put it another way, the repeater penalty is always a flat $2 extra - no matter how high you go. But as you move up in brackets you go from $3 to $3.25 to $5.5 to $6.75, etc. So, it's almost always more important to stay "less over" the tax than it is to avoid the repeater. Obviously doing both saves you the most. But, I'm not sure it's worth the cost of losing talent.

I think if you get $17M or less over next season, you a) duck the 2nd apron, b) are paying less than $67M in tax rather than $238M, c) keep at least one really good player more than ducking the full tax.

[hugepatsfan]

My fear with this strategy is that you're advocating 5 less than 100% efforts towards building the best team we can. I can't stomach the possibility that we have an opportunity to build a super team again 4 years from now that ownership won't sign off on the spending for because we built a plan that prevented it so we could keep Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet in a year that Tatum was out for anyway. I say just bite the bullet and clear the decks so you can spend the rest of Tatum's prime unbothered.

[djFan71]

Nah, that's not really the point. It's not that strict a plan, and not tied to specific players. Call it Rui or PJ or Marshall, or whoever you want. You pay reasonable taxes to keep the team solid, then more when you're truly contending.

If it was just duck next year, then sure. But, you have to duck the tax 2 years to reset, and I don't want to say we're not spending in 26-27. And I think it's harder to rebuild if you've spent draft assets to pay to clear good players' salary completely to duck the tax for 2 years. You're left with no salary base to trade and less picks to work with.

I'm in the minority, I want to be in a position to be really good for '26 playoffs if he's ready to come back. But, punting on contending in 26-27 is the real concern.

Tatum has 5ish prime years left, one of them is probably shot, but he could be back for the playoffs. Punting 2 and relying on only maximizing the last 3 doesn't feel smart. Plus, by the 2028 playoffs White (33) and Brown (32) will be at the tail of their primes. Even Pritchard will be 30. You almost have to look at cycling them if your goal isn't to pay the tax for 2 straight years to reset the repeater and focus on 27-28 and the following few years. I don't see how you pay no tax in 26-27 and ask all those guys to wait til 27-28 and say "we'll really spend then."

I think you shoot for 26-27, 27-28, 28-29 as the big contending years. Maybe it's $250M or $300M over those 4 (including next year) instead of $250M over 5 years. The exact number isn't really the point. Just that the repeater, while bad, is known and static. You can still manage the overall tax bill and keep more good players and picks than you do by being under the tax for 2 straight years.

[chrisab123]

The repeater taxes are harsh, no way around it. This site breaks it down pretty nicely.
https://www.salaryswish.com/luxury-tax/2026

But if you look at it, it gets more an more punitive as you go up. If you have appetite for SOME tax, but not $238M, there's room to work with.

If you stay < $17M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$67M in tax.
If you stay < $11M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$36M in tax.

The repeater rates don't escalate the more years you're in it (as far as I can tell). So, if you budget that the next 5 years you're good with paying on average $50M extra per year, you don't have to be so vigilant in ducking things this year. Don't worry about resetting the repeater, but instead keep good basketball players and salary range within the reasonable tax brackets.

If you're $17M over this year that means you can:
- drop Jrue/KP
- keep Hauser
- sign Kornet for $5-6M
- have ~$35M to round out the roster with 3-4 guys.

Instead of only $18M for 3-4 guys to duck the tax, and pay other teams to take on $, or waive/stretch bad contracts, etc.

If they're the right guys on deals that extend another year or 2, you could be less over the tax next year as the cap/tax rises more than your salaries.

I think when Brad handed out these extension deals, they had some version of that in mind. Look, we'll pay tax, but try not to pay ALL the taxes. Big difference from $238M to $67M. About.... $171M.

Gimme more cowbell!

I don’t understand any of it.

I do know the top tier players are still forcing their way to only teams willing to shell out all the money… still the few teams they always force their way to. I don’t care what a team is willing to give up for Giannis, if he doesn’t like the team or he feels they can’t surround him with a stacked roster, he isn’t going there. He isn’t going to the Wizards, for example. This isn’t stopping the few teams/players from making super teams!

The nuggets have Jokic, none of the big names are ever rumored to be joining him. Imagine how good they could be if the big names over the past few season wanted to go there or if the nuggets were willing to spend.

The league is trying to penalize these handful of teams, while they are still stacking with the best players.


Edit: okay, you got me, it’s penalizing the Celtics!!

Denver is cold. Nightlife is decent-ish. But like there’s not a ton of endorsements. No one is clamoring to join stars who aren’t in a glamour market. Huge reason why trading Brown would be a mistake, no one like that will ever give Boston a second look because they aren’t in Miami LA or NYC.

[Shak_Celts]

The repeater taxes are harsh, no way around it. This site breaks it down pretty nicely.
https://www.salaryswish.com/luxury-tax/2026

But if you look at it, it gets more an more punitive as you go up. If you have appetite for SOME tax, but not $238M, there's room to work with.

If you stay < $17M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$67M in tax.
If you stay < $11M over the tax, you're going to pay a max of ~$36M in tax.

The repeater rates don't escalate the more years you're in it (as far as I can tell). So, if you budget that the next 5 years you're good with paying on average $50M extra per year, you don't have to be so vigilant in ducking things this year. Don't worry about resetting the repeater, but instead keep good basketball players and salary range within the reasonable tax brackets.

If you're $17M over this year that means you can:
- drop Jrue/KP
- keep Hauser
- sign Kornet for $5-6M
- have ~$35M to round out the roster with 3-4 guys.

Instead of only $18M for 3-4 guys to duck the tax, and pay other teams to take on $, or waive/stretch bad contracts, etc.

If they're the right guys on deals that extend another year or 2, you could be less over the tax next year as the cap/tax rises more than your salaries.

I think when Brad handed out these extension deals, they had some version of that in mind. Look, we'll pay tax, but try not to pay ALL the taxes. Big difference from $238M to $67M. About.... $171M.

Gimme more cowbell!

I don’t understand any of it.

I do know the top tier players are still forcing their way to only teams willing to shell out all the money… still the few teams they always force their way to. I don’t care what a team is willing to give up for Giannis, if he doesn’t like the team or he feels they can’t surround him with a stacked roster, he isn’t going there. He isn’t going to the Wizards, for example. This isn’t stopping the few teams/players from making super teams!

The nuggets have Jokic, none of the big names are ever rumored to be joining him. Imagine how good they could be if the big names over the past few season wanted to go there or if the nuggets were willing to spend.

The league is trying to penalize these handful of teams, while they are still stacking with the best players.


Edit: okay, you got me, it’s penalizing the Celtics!!

Denver is cold. Nightlife is decent-ish. But like there’s not a ton of endorsements. No one is clamoring to join stars who aren’t in a glamour market. Huge reason why trading Brown would be a mistake, no one like that will ever give Boston a second look because they aren’t in Miami LA or NYC.

I hope you’re wrong. If you build it, they will come!