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Last year regular season:

#1 team in wins Oklahoma City was #1 in defensive rating
#2 team in wins Cleveland was #8 in defensive rating
#3 team in wins Boston was #4 in defensive rating
#28 team in wins Charlotte #24 in defensive rating
#29 team in wins Washington was #28 in defensive rating
#30 team in wins Utah was #30 in defensive rating

There's clearly a strong correlation between defensive rating and wins. Here's how the Celtics have done recently:

24-25: 4th
23-24: 2nd
22-23: 2nd
21-22: 1st
20-21: 13th

The Celtics have had a lot of roster turnover this summer. We are all expecting a drop in defensive rating. Just how far are they going to fall?

I am voting 16-20. Effort can take you far. In the 15-16 season the Celtics top 8 in mpg were Bradley, IT, Crowder, Turner, Smart, Sully, Amir and KO. That team finished 7th in defensive rating despite 3/8 of the lineup (IT, KO and Sully) being sub par or worse defensively. So despite concerns about Simons, Pritchard, Garza and others I think the Celtics will find away to have a middle of the pack defense. My biggest concern this year is Queta's ability to avoid foul trouble. It has been a problem for him in the past. If he is able to stay on the floor Celtics will be alright.

The correlation at the top and bottom is interesting, but how does it look throughout. Anecdotally, it feels like there could be more variance in the middle. Like without great defense, you won't be able to be great and with terrible defense you're doomed to be bad. BUT it feels like the closer you get to the middle, the more you can have one-sided teams carry their record. Like a 7th offense and 23rd defense wouldn't surprise me to be 12th best record or vice versa. The middle of the league feels more homogenized in overall talent level so there's more ways to get there being carried by one side.

I voted 21-25 because the loss of:

Jayson Tatum
Al Horford
Kristaps Porzingis
Jrue Holiday
Luke Kornet

is going to crush them in the front court, rebounding wise, and with their switching.

It's going to take a lot of effort just to be 21-25.

hugepatsfan wrote:The correlation at the top and bottom is interesting, but how does it look throughout. Anecdotally, it feels like there could be more variance in the middle. Like without great defense, you won't be able to be great and with terrible defense you're doomed to be bad. BUT it feels like the closer you get to the middle, the more you can have one-sided teams carry their record. Like a 7th offense and 23rd defense wouldn't surprise me to be 12th best record or vice versa. The middle of the league feels more homogenized in overall talent level so there's more ways to get there being carried by one side.

Warriors tied for #11 in wins, #7 in D Rating
Griz tied for #11 in wins, #11 in D Rating
Bucks were tied for #11 in wins, #12 in D Rating
Pistons were #14 in wins, #10 in D Rating
Magic were #15 in wins, #2 in D Rating
Hawks tied for #16 in wins, #18 in D Rating
Kings tied for #16 in wins, #22 in D Rating
Bulls tied for #18 in wins, #19 in D Rating
Mavs tied for #18 in wins, #20 in D Rating
Heat were #20 in wins, #9 in D Rating

Last years data above. I expected more variance between wins and D Rating and what you suggested to be true but the correlation is stronger than expected.

I expect the Celtics offense to be better than their defense and their win percentage to be better than their defensive rating.