When comparing a draftee to a NBA player goes wrong

[campybatman]

Makes you wonder how accurate of an assessment or opinion do those on NBADraftdotnet have for certain players in each draft year.

I've compiled a brief list of the Celtics' draft selections in the 2000s.

What's amusing is that the combined NBA careers of Kedrick Brown and Joseph Forte pale in comparison to the individual NBA careers of the two players that they were compared to.

The humor writes itself for Jerome Moiso who also had a short stint in the NBA. And Gerald Green unfortunately could be another young player you discover is playing overseas after a brief stay in the NBA.



2000

Selection: #11 - Jerome Moiso
NBA Comparison: Kevin Garnett

2001

Selection: #10 - Joe Johnson
NBA Comparison: Anfernee Hardaway

Selection: #11 - Kedrick Brown
NBA Comparison: Jerome Kersey

Selection: #21 - Joseph Forte
NBA Comparison: Hersey Hawkins

2002

Selection: #22 - Casey Jacobsen pick owned by Phoenix

2003

Selection: #16 - Troy Bell and #20 -Dahntay Jones draft rights traded to Memphis

Selection: #13 - Marcus Banks and #27 - Kendrick Perkins draft rights acquired from Memphis
NBA Comparison: N/A

2004

Selection: #15 - Al Jefferson
NBA Comparison: N/A

Selection: #24 - Delonte West
NBA Comparison: Cuttino Mobley

Selection: #25 - Tony Allen
NBA Comparison: N/A

2005

Selection: #18 - Gerald Green
NBA Comparison: Tracy McGrady

2006

Selection: #7 - Randy Foye draft rights traded to Portland

Selection: #21 - Rajon Rondo draft rights acquired from Phoenix
NBA Comparison: Mookie Blalock

2007

Selection: #5 - Jeff Green draft rights traded to Seattle

[The Rondo Show]

My favorite is still the Adam Morrison/Larry Bird one.

Gotta love judging a guy completely based on his skin color and not his game.

[Pogue Mahone]

My favorite is still the Adam Morrison/Larry Bird one.

Gotta love judging a guy completely based on his skin color and not his game.

Hey no fair. I thought it was because of the wispy Joe Sixpack mustache

I don't mind comparing draftees to a current or former player. It is sometimes helpful in imagining the players game. That being said, some people get a bit carried away with the projection, I think.

Take Gerald Green, for instance. How was he ever going to be a T-Mac Revisited? T-Mac has handles which Green was no where close to having. Rashard Lewis, on the other hand, didn't have great handles either when coming into the draft. On the surface, then, Green most likely upside was a Rashard Lewis type player. Far short of the T-Mac level.

I tend to not look at positions because it often obfuscates a players real skills. It can also get you into trouble when judging a players' ultimate upside.

Understand a player's skill set, though, and you get a better understanding of roles that he might be able to fill at the senior level. I think when people just say "So and So is a 15 ppg scorer" or that "So and So is a 10 rpg player" it doesn't really say much. Knowing that every player is part of an array of matrices and it those matrices that comprise the team. How do those skills fit into an overall scheme? How do those skills support potential teammates? Numbers are just a by-product of minutes and opportunity.

Not paying attention to such things gets you the New York Knicks. A bit of tangent but it got me thinking.

[campybatman]

This is how a team gets better when you draft right for your roster and not wrongly. Either they match your system like in football or you develop them properly to be a future trading chip. Hence, why individual workouts of potential draftees at your selection is so vital. This holds true to Ainge's interest in Rondo. What was scary was the fact that Robert Swift held no workouts for teams and Yi's handlers and agent used a similar strategy. I believe he wouldn't compete against other top draftees.

[bruno sundov]

My favorite is still the Adam Morrison/Larry Bird one.

Gotta love judging a guy completely based on his skin color and not his game.

YES


That and harol miner being compared to MJ!!! Nonsense.

[TheCelticTruth]

i think comparisons are dangerous, because it is so easy for a talented basketball player not to make it i think, whether its lack of heart or mental blocks...who knows. but comparisons are a lot on the way the play too and not necessarily the level of talent. to be fair, jerome moiso did look more like kevin garnett than any other player you could compar moiso to...physically. but skills wise, it was like KG was always drunk.

and as far as joe forte goes, i dont know what happened to the kid, but its his fault, not the C's and not Red's. i mean, he only played two years for the heels, but he was lights out. freshman of the year and player of the year for acc in two seasons is better than a lot of guys who ever went through that league. i just dont think he had the mental fortitude to make it in the L or make himself good enough. just for example, arenas and parker were still available. now im not familiar with parker before he was in san antonio, but i followed arenas at arizona. i was a guy who was surprised that arenas wasnt considered a decent prospect, not that i expected him to become as good as he is, but at the time they came outta school, i would say forte was clearly the better player. its obvious he never had the same drive as gilbert or tony, so its not always the scouts fault.

[UGA Hayes]

WEll I look at the scouting reports more than the comparisons to judge a site. For what it worth when the sites solicited input on what they should change, I advised them to strongly consider getting rid of the comparisons since they lead to criticism like these.

[eitanr]

I like comparing draftees to NBA players on 3 levels: Worst Case, Best Case, and most likely.

Take Tyler Hansborough for example. He is a rugged rebounding 4 with a strong nose for the ball and a propensity to get to the line.

Best Case: Tom Gugliotta- Remember how good Googs was in his prime. He also had that hard nosed game and could be a real efficient scorer in his dat.

Worst Case: Clearance Weatherspoon: Kenny Thomas- Like Thomas both are slighlty undersized and are confined to the post area.

Most Likely: Nick Collison- Both are hard nosed tough players who will be able to rebound in the L and be effective post defenders as well.

[theman]

WEll I look at the scouting reports more than the comparisons to judge a site. For what it worth when the sites solicited input on what they should change, I advised them to strongly consider getting rid of the comparisons since they lead to criticism like these.

I like the comparisons. They sum up a lot of information quickly. Draft express used to have "best possible" and "worst possible". I really liked having that range. Unfortunatly they don't do that any more.

[UGA Hayes]

^ they still have it.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Mic ... asley-605/


It just doesn't add anything for me.

[Taget]

What this really proves is that a player hasn't made it until other players are compared to them rather than them being compared to other players. You're not the "next" anything until people stop comparing you to the next "whatever."

Harold Miner is the "next Michael Jordan", Kobe is now just Kobe.

[eloper]

i think comparisons are dangerous, because it is so easy for a talented basketball player not to make it i think, whether its lack of heart or mental blocks...who knows. but comparisons are a lot on the way the play too and not necessarily the level of talent. to be fair, jerome moiso did look more like kevin garnett than any other player you could compar moiso to...physically. but skills wise, it was like KG was always drunk.

and as far as joe forte goes, i dont know what happened to the kid, but its his fault, not the C's and not Red's. i mean, he only played two years for the heels, but he was lights out. freshman of the year and player of the year for acc in two seasons is better than a lot of guys who ever went through that league. i just dont think he had the mental fortitude to make it in the L or make himself good enough. just for example, arenas and parker were still available. now im not familiar with parker before he was in san antonio, but i followed arenas at arizona. i was a guy who was surprised that arenas wasnt considered a decent prospect, not that i expected him to become as good as he is, but at the time they came outta school, i would say forte was clearly the better player. its obvious he never had the same drive as gilbert or tony, so its not always the scouts fault.

Forte simply wasnt mentally ready for the NBA, he was quite possibly the most immature player I've ever witnessed in the league. He had all the talent in the world, but he thought he was already a star and he had his priorities all backwards. Forte now plays over in Europe, and has developed into a quality player. His head now seems to be screwed on straight, as he's viewed over there as a guy who's had to work his way back up from rock bottom, and done so fairly successfully. I think there's a still a chance he comes back to the NBA at some point. Either way, after his career started off so poorly, I'm impressed that he was even able to maintain a career in basketball.

I wouldn't say that Forte's downfall was so much related to his drive, I think he genuinely enjoys playing the game and wants to get better (else he probably would have retired for a few years like say, Kedrick Brown). Unfortunately for Joe he let other things get in the way of his goal.

[P2]

The comparison of D-West and Mobley is pretty accurate.

[MalReyn]

http://www.nbadraft.net/profiles/deshawnstevenson.htm

DeShawn Stevenson = Michael Jordan???

Plus another T-Mac comparison before Gerald Green was the legendary Qyntel Woods....

[campybatman]

http://www.nbadraft.net/profiles/deshawnstevenson.htm

DeShawn Stevenson = Michael Jordan???

What about Philadelphia's second round pick in 2005?

Selection - #45 - Louis Williams
NBA Comparison: Allen Iverson


Speaking of Iverson....

On Eddie House...



Weaknesses: He is a 2 in a 1's body. Doesn't have great point skills, esp. passing. Under 6-4 shooting guards are usually named Iverson or they play in the CBA.

[eloper]

Louis Williams is actually looking quite good these days....

And Qyntel Woods actually looked pretty good for the Knicks in his final year before leaving the league. He would have been a good player IMO if it weren't for his off the court issues. Not TMac of course, but a good player.

[DynastyInTheMaking]

Most comparisons have to do with size and potential. The potential is always there for these players, most just dont live up to it.

[Pats19andO]

^ they still have it.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Mic ... asley-605/


It just doesn't add anything for me.

They say his best case is zach randolph and his worst case is Al Harrington.
Id rather be harrington

[freakon0mics]

Some scouts try to scout some of the same trends and patterns from high school and college players from NBA players when they were around that age to get some of those comparisons. To me its ridiculous. I think its best to just try and scout their skillset and leave it like that.

[captain_cheapseats]

but comparisons are a lot on the way the play too and not necessarily the level of talent.

Exactly. They aren't saying "player X will be as good as player Y" at all. It's just using guys everyone knows to provide a picture of how a player approaches the game.