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To be taken with a grain of salt...

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To be taken with a grain of salt... 

Post#1 » by Datruth345 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:45 pm

I was looking through the positional rankings for each team according to hoopsstats.com

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/teamstats/08/12/diffeff/1-1


Celtics rankings for each position

PG - 7th
SG - 3rd
SF - 2nd
PF - 1st
C - 28th

I think they use efficiency and defensive efficiency to come up with their numbers

i know about all the pitfalls of using these numbers to come up with opinions, but with such an obvious gap between all the other positions and the center position it makes one wonder if the backup point should be the biggest concern

however, i don't think there is a big man available that i would be interested in
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Post#2 » by sully00 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 5:05 pm

The biggest issue is that there is no way to know how they differentiate who is the 4 and who is the 5. My guess is that KG is always the PF so that means that whenever anyone else is in the front court with him they are the 5, whether it is Posey, Scal, Powe, Davis, Pollard, or Perk. At the same time when Powe and Davis are in the game without KG, likely doing their most damage, they may well be adding to the PF totals.

If you use 82games positional breakdown. The story is the same but it shows that it is a defensive issue if anything a lack of blocked shots and allowing a little more of everything across the board. But they also only allow a 48% from the field on three more attempts per game at the 5 so the attempts are certainly contested, conversely they are shooting 64% and getting to the line about the same. The C production is fine offensively.

In the end it is really difficult to separate the 4 from the 5 in a positional breakdown especially in Boston. On top of that the team is killing it defensively overall and at the other 4 positions and the center spot likely has a lot to do with that. I don't know about anyone else but as much fun as it is scoring 110+ I kind of miss Perk and KG locking it down defensively and on the glass.

But sure if someone wants to give away a 6'11" athletic shot blocker/defender who is good on the offensive glass, that would sound great. Kevin feel free let Theo go at any time.
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Post#3 » by RickyDizzle » Thu Feb 14, 2008 5:14 pm

You mentioned the pitfalls of using stats like that to draw conclusions, so there was a bit of a disclaimer, but yeah...I wouldnt put too much faith in these.

A lot of what Perk does isnt measured statistically. He'll box out and someone else like KG will grab the rebound, he creates space, pushes people around, and doesnt ever really demand the ball in the flow of the offense (which is good when you have 3 superstars that need shots and a plethora of other offensive weapons).

All in all, I am very happy with Perk as the starter, however I agree with you that a back-up big is more of a need then a point guard.

Not because of these stats, but simply because its easier to figure out ways to get the ball up the court with the personnel we have then it is to figure out who is going to guard the Duncans, Shaq's and Dwight Howards when Perk is in foul trouble or injured (like now).

Plus just in general Rondo is way more likely to last for extended minutes of the floor than Perk is...therefore backup big is more important.

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Post#4 » by lojowo » Thu Feb 14, 2008 5:38 pm

Looking at the Units as a whole, Front Court and Backcourt, Celtis rank number 1 for frontcourts and number 4 for Back courts.

No one above the Celtics in Back Court ranking is in the top for for the Front Court.

Looking at those numbers, I would say the Celtics are in pretty good shape.

If you feel the need to worry, the Bench is only ranked 9th right now but when Garnett and Perkins come back, I feel those number may rise because I think Doc has seen Powe play well now and wont be fearful to use him.
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Post#5 » by Geech » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:19 pm

There is a menu pick for "frontcourt", which I assume includes Center, that places us 1st. And if you select "backcourt", we are 4th. So maybe we should be concerned about improving the PG position at 7th?

No matter what these numbers spit out, I think there is a noticeable drop-off both defensively and offensively when Rondo comes out. Last night's game was pretty typical of this drop-off. It was 81-62 when Rondo came out and 5 1/2 minutes later its 90-81. I'm not blaming any of Rondo's backups, but a PG should run a team and not just run with the team. I think Casell is the only one out there that may be available that could fit the bill.

I think it has been more glaring of a problem since KG's been out which leaves Pierce as the best playmaker when Rondo's out. If you think Casell is a chemistry killer, then maybe things won't seem quite so bad when KG returns and we don't really need him or someone like him.

I'd also like to see Perk in at the end of games, but I certainly can't complain about what the Posey-KG combination has done with neither being listed as a Center. I don't think the frontcourt is as bad as just averaging out 1, 2 and 28 but as a whole compared to other team's frontcourts they are doing great. I also don't see who we could add that would make this a better mix.

Everything's going so well right now. Why risk screwing any of it up? But I am less worried now that our bad luck charm Chris Wallace is in Memphis doing his magic.
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Post#6 » by Datruth345 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:30 pm

I'm not so much worried, i mean we have the best record in the league and are doing fine without KG, how worried can you be

last nights injuries just sparked a thought in my head about the center position. So i just took what i think about the center position from watching the games, (perk is a fine starter and compliments kg as well as any frontcourt player KG has been with. but it's the backup at the position that concerns me) and contrasted it to what the numbers "say."

thats all that was meant by this thread, it wasn't meant to be a knee-jerk reaction thread or a perk bashing thread, because i am a firm perk supporter

i love Leon and baby, but i see them both as Pf's

i think that the only move likley on the horizon is the Cassell signing if a million stars align. Which would be an incredible move to strengthen us for the playoffs. As i mentioned before there is really no big man available to sign, or that has been labeled as "on the block" that i would be interested in
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Post#7 » by sully00 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:34 pm

While injuries are a concern the chances that Boston can acquire a rotation player before the deadline is pretty friggin unlikely.

One guy who I think is the prototype of what they are looking for is Fred Jones, who we saw last night. He brings a mix of what Tony and Eddie do with better pg skills, he has good size and plays with the kind of toughness and all around game Ainge looks for.

He is in the last year of his contract and while he is one of Isiah's guys, a player he drafted in IND, he also isn't likely to be back with the Knicks next year. He is certainly a candidate to be let go after the trade deadline to catch on with a playoff team. He is a young player who gave up a guaranteed year on his deal to make a deal happen and has ended up in a bad situation.
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Post#8 » by humblebum » Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:34 pm

sully00 wrote:While injuries are a concern the chances that Boston can acquire a rotation player before the deadline is pretty friggin unlikely.

One guy who I think is the prototype of what they are looking for is Fred Jones, who we saw last night. He brings a mix of what Tony and Eddie do with better pg skills, he has good size and plays with the kind of toughness and all around game Ainge looks for.

He is in the last year of his contract and while he is one of Isiah's guys, a player he drafted in IND, he also isn't likely to be back with the Knicks next year. He is certainly a candidate to be let go after the trade deadline to catch on with a playoff team. He is a young player who gave up a guaranteed year on his deal to make a deal happen and has ended up in a bad situation.


I've actually always like Fred Jones as a player as well. He's athletic, has a decent stroke on his jumper, and he really gets after it. Next year I'd love to see the Celtics hang onto Tony Allen while going after Fred Jones to take Eddie House's role. Jones and Allen would be a pretty dynamic back-court duo off the bench. That would give us 4 rock solid defenders in the backcourt with a good mix of slashers and shooters. I doubt the C's get their hands on Jones this year though.
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Post#9 » by threrf23 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:31 pm

This is encouraging IMO especially if you consider that most of the statistics used to govern these ranks are likely offensive and/or unlikely to accurately measure full defensive impact, and Perk's more of a defensive specialist (as RickyD points out).

Perhaps it does indicate however that we shouldn't go small so much when KG's back?
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Post#10 » by threrf23 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 8:39 pm

Geech wrote:
No matter what these numbers spit out, I think there is a noticeable drop-off both defensively and offensively when Rondo comes out. Last night's game was pretty typical of this drop-off. It was 81-62 when Rondo came out and 5 1/2 minutes later its 90-81. I'm not blaming any of Rondo's backups, but a PG should run a team and not just run with the team. I think Casell is the only one out there that may be available that could fit the bill.

I think it has been more glaring of a problem since KG's been out


I think that became obvious when Rondo missed games due to injury not too long ago.

Since KG's been out, he has simply stepped up his game. He's playing like a top 10 PG lately IMO, or at least very close to that. Hell, he's our leading rebounder during the stretch
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Post#11 » by Jammer » Fri Feb 15, 2008 4:30 am

Well, I mentioned this during the pre-season (that Center was the weakest position).

Power Forward is misleading since KG only plays 24 mpg there, with Posey logging 12 at PF, and Scal or Powe or Davis getting the rest. But with KG out for 9 games, Posey and Powe have pretty much taken up that slack. And, it's the Celtics best position.

Center is, to quote Doc Rivers, by committee. Perk does 24, KG 11, and the committee 12 (Davis typically, but Pollard and Powe have logged time here also). It is the weakest position by far.

Upgrading it is the problem. Other than PJ Brown, the Celtics will have to wait until summer to pursue Kurt Thomas, Brian Skinner or Jake Voskuhl. So, the return of Scot Pollard to full health is crucial, since Kurt Thomas may go for near the full mid-level someplace, and Brian Skinner may stay in Phoenix, and Pollard is better than Voskuhl.

There are probably 9 untradeables, the available Celtics being Scalabrine, Pruitt, and Davis or Powe. But, since there is no one to trade for at Center with those pieces, we come back to hoping Scot Pollard and Perk return to full health ASAP.

Rondo/House are solid offensively, with their high shooting %. The weakness is that there is no backup if Rondo goes down. It's actually just as big a void as center. I don't expect a signing until summer, unless Sam Cassell is bought out or Miami trades Jason Williams and miraculously is bought out.

Ray Allen and Tony Allen do a superb job at shooting guard, just as
Paul Pierce and James Posey are superb at small forward.
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Post#12 » by Jammer » Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:10 am

SULLY:

Fred Jones is junk.

He's not a PG.

He's not a SG.

If you plan on replacing Tony Allen, which is what it sounds like you want to do, ask yourself who can defend better than Tony Allen. Until you can answer that question, Tony will be a Celtic. Which I think will be a very long time.

On the other hand, I don't see House so easily replaced, as you suggest. Especially during the 82 game regular season, House will be here, unless the Celtcs get outbid for his services, which is possible, since they can only offer him 8% on $1.5 million, the LLE (like $1.8 million), or part of the mid-level, which could be used on someone like Chris Duhon or Jason Williams. Although Duhon and Williams are not as good a shooter or as good offensivley as House, they are better defenders, and can actually fill in for Rondo if he goes down. This will be a very touchy subject this summer when they discuss players roles.

House has already said that when he took Danny Ainge's and then Doc River's calls this summer, they both offered him a rotation position, so he was down with accepting right away.

If another guard is brought in, they will have to clarify roles, and that will obviously influence whether House or another PG decide to accept (who's the backup?).

And, how do you justify paying someone more than Rondo to come in as his backup.
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Post#13 » by sully00 » Fri Feb 15, 2008 7:40 pm

Frankly Jammer that is an awful take.

Fred Jones is a player who can shoot/pass/rebound/defend and has playoff experience he is junk like James Posey is junk a guy who can actually play the game. He gives you what both Allen and House give this team and at the same time can handle the ball and run an offense.

This idea that bringing in a "real pg" doesn't fly. Chris Duhon would be a decent pick up as well but most of the "real PG" are useless to team focused at competing on both ends. There is no point in getting some 5'10" no shot, no defense, ball handler because Doc isn't going to use him. You want to back Rondo up with a guy who can shoot and defend as well as handle the ball because chances are the reason you are going to have replace Rondo is foul trouble as much as injury. Jason Williams isn't a better defender than anyone.

Jones would give you a player you could play with either House or Allen as well as all 3 together in small line up. Unlike a guy like Cassell who will compliment the starting line up but is a bad fit in the backcourt next to either Allen or House.

As far as the last line it is nonsense almost any FA you bring is going to make more than Rondo he is on a rookie deal.
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Post#14 » by Man_Up » Fri Feb 15, 2008 10:24 pm

So, According to the stat, Kendrick Perkins is the worst of our starters by a large margin.

Why am I not surprised?
Rondo doesn't believe in easy buckets...

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