Popping in
Posted: Fri Feb 22, 2008 6:56 pm
Hi.
Due to two jobs and two kids, I barely have time to watch all the games, never mind spend hours reading the board and posting. But I miss all the abuse I get here, so I thought I'd bring you all up to speed on my opinions.
This is likely to be scattered, so hold on. It will be long and not for the faint of heart... after all I am cramming several months into one post. Those with short attention spans may want to go back to other threads and discuss trades, backup point guards, or whatever else strikes your fancy.
First things first, a championship is what it's all about... but can we win it? Right now, I'd say probably not.
Without some luck, I don't believe we'd get by Detroit. We just don't match up well against them. Talent-wise, maybe we have the edge, at best, it's a wash... but we just don't match up well. Rasheed causes huge problems with his ability to play so far outside (drawing Garnett so far away from the basket), and Billups is too big and too strong for Rondo to handle. It almost forces Tony Allen to play big minutes to defend Chauncy, and if Tony is on the floor longer than 15 minutes, that's less time for Rondo and Ray Allen.. but maybe that's what it will take to beat Detroit (shrug).
The way things stand now, we'd be facing Cleveland in the second round, while Detroit would face Orlando. I'd rather face Orlando. Our road would be much easier if we didn't have to go through both Cleveland and Detroit - but it might be more satisfying and better prepare us for the finals. I think Cleveland has a very solid chance to catch and pass Orlando for the third best record in the East. Toronto will hover around, and I'm not very fearful of them.
Another large, and looming problem is that we don't have experience in close games, or in big games. Detroit has both. Our record in games decided by three points or less this year is dismal - what is it now, 5-6? Terrible. None of our big three have seen the finals, and have not played in the playoffs together. As experienced as we are, we're not experienced together, and we haven't shed enough blood in close wars yet. Our chemistry is mostly good, so I do think we can overcome that.
However, I have not seen the ability in our team to "take it to the next level" when times get rough. I have seen first hand how Detroit, and Cleveland (mostly LeBron) can raise their level of play when it's needed. The Celtics in the 80's and just about every great team can shift into a completely different gear. Dennis Johnson, in particular, was almost a completely different player in the playoffs opposed to the regular season, and as good as Larry Bird was - he was always his best in the playoffs. Who on our team can play much better than how they are now? Perhaps no one individual, so we need to play better as a team.
Rondo has proven to me that he can get it done in the regular season. Can he do it in the playoffs? I don't know. He's going to need to stay agressive and keep shooting well. If Rondo continues to improve, and can do in the playoffs what he's doing now, we don't have major point guard worries. He's young enough to play 40 minutes in the playoffs when the rotation gets short... he just has to play well enough during that time. We only have to worry if he gets hurt, but that goes for other players and teams as well. Rondo may in fact, be our most important player.
Pierce has disappointed me. There are flashes of the player I want him to be, but he's just not there. In my opinion, he could be a 20/7/7 player on this team. He should be a triple double threat every night, but he just doesn't play that way. The assists would come with better team play on our part. Phoenix is averaging 27.22 assists per game, we are at 21.82.. *New Jersey* is at 23.85 assists per game.
After seeing how Pierce has played through this point in the season, I would suggest that our best chance of winning is if the ball goes more to Garnett and we play inside out more.
Garnett is a terrific passer in the paint, and even marginal players like Perk, Powe, and Big Baby can get the job done alongside of Kevin. I had wanted Pierce take his playmaking to the next level, but he hasn't. He's taken his defense up a notch, but offensively, he's not risen to a new level, despite the surrounding talent.
I do think that Ray, Paul and Kevin will have their nights and depending on matchups, we'll be better off focusing on one rather than the other, but for the most part - I don't think we have been utilizing Garnett enough. We should start preparing for the playoffs by really getting into the paint more, and going to Garnett.
I think we do have a weakness at backup point guard. In tight games when Eddie House has been in, defenses have taken advantage of him, ditto for Tony Allen (but not as badly).
Either we need to instill more confidence in Tony Allen at backup PG, or we need to find another player who can handle the ball in tough situations besides Rondo because Eddie House won't get it done in the playoffs in that role. If Rondo gets himself into foul trouble and can't play important situations in the fourth quarter, right now, we don't have a good alternative. Eddie is good for giving Ray Allen a spell during the game, but not at backup PG in critical situations.
Big Baby vs. Powe? *Big shrug* I think Big Baby is the better player, but he's also a rookie. Play him big minutes now, and he'll probably hit a wall in the spring. I almost think that Glenn is using Powe more now so that Big Baby learns how to play hard, while also not getting burned out for the playoffs. As we get towards the end of the year, I hope to see Big Baby replace Powe in the rotation. I think he and Garnett work well together. Aside from Garnett, I think Baby is the best big we have (sorry Perk). That doesn't mean I think Baby is going to be a great player one day... it means the dropoff from Garnett to our next big is like falling off a cliff. We do not have Robert Parish and Kevin McHale here.
My playoff rotation : Garnett, Perk, Baby, Posey, Pierce, Allen, Allen, Rondo... with some splashes of Eddie in there. Subject to change depending on our March 1 roster.
I love that Delonte West is in Cleveland. If he can't get it done there alongside LeBron, with Gibson being hurt, then he's going to be a career backup. I still have hopes that he is good enough to start on a title team, but he has to prove it and rise to the challenge ahead of him. Good luck Delonte.
Gerald belongs in Houston, and he'll be working his butt off there.
Yi is quietly putting up almost 10/6 a game in his rookie year showing the occasional signs of brilliance. Both Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay are turning into terrific players (while Telfair and Wally have been traded). Gasol was traded to LA for peanuts (remember the rumors about him coming here). I miss Al Jefferson terribly. Durant is great. If we don't win a title during this big three era, the events of this past year will haunt me for the rest of my life.. just like the Spectre of Tim Duncan. What could have been.
I've brought myself close to tears several times this year imagining what it would be like to win a championship again. I'm going to mortgage my house to buy a playoff strip this year if that's what it costs.
I still *majorly* regret not putting $10 grand on the C's when they were at 140-1 odds of winning a title last year before the draft.
I'm still thinking that Reggie Miller will join us. Not sure if that would really make us significantly better or not. He sounds comfortable in his broadcasting booth, but he has said on several occasions that he didn't think he could mentally do an entire season, but he could do six months. He said that his body was ready after doing two a days, so physically he would be fine. If he's going to try it, he'll decide before March 1st. Realistically, he won't. But it would make us even more interesting.
It wouldn't hurt to get another experienced rebounder on the team as well.
I'd take Cassell, but be fine without him. I like Gabe Pruitt, wish he'd get a few minutes every now and again. Dwight Howard in the dunk contest was totally sick. Ray Allen was the MVP of the All-Star game and should be doing the three point shootout. I said that Monta Ellis would be a great player, but not a good fit for our team.. right on the first part, wrong on the second, he's more unselfish than I thought he would be. I'd love to have him here.
What I'm hoping for this year... one of two scenerios : beating LA or beating San Antonio for the title. LA for the history of the rivalry, and SA because they have been consistently the best team during the Tim Duncan era. Beating them would really mean something...
Goals until the playoffs - stay healthy, stay healthy, stay healthy.
I'll be back when the playoffs start, or perhaps to offer a comment again if something unusual happens.
Due to two jobs and two kids, I barely have time to watch all the games, never mind spend hours reading the board and posting. But I miss all the abuse I get here, so I thought I'd bring you all up to speed on my opinions.
This is likely to be scattered, so hold on. It will be long and not for the faint of heart... after all I am cramming several months into one post. Those with short attention spans may want to go back to other threads and discuss trades, backup point guards, or whatever else strikes your fancy.
First things first, a championship is what it's all about... but can we win it? Right now, I'd say probably not.
Without some luck, I don't believe we'd get by Detroit. We just don't match up well against them. Talent-wise, maybe we have the edge, at best, it's a wash... but we just don't match up well. Rasheed causes huge problems with his ability to play so far outside (drawing Garnett so far away from the basket), and Billups is too big and too strong for Rondo to handle. It almost forces Tony Allen to play big minutes to defend Chauncy, and if Tony is on the floor longer than 15 minutes, that's less time for Rondo and Ray Allen.. but maybe that's what it will take to beat Detroit (shrug).
The way things stand now, we'd be facing Cleveland in the second round, while Detroit would face Orlando. I'd rather face Orlando. Our road would be much easier if we didn't have to go through both Cleveland and Detroit - but it might be more satisfying and better prepare us for the finals. I think Cleveland has a very solid chance to catch and pass Orlando for the third best record in the East. Toronto will hover around, and I'm not very fearful of them.
Another large, and looming problem is that we don't have experience in close games, or in big games. Detroit has both. Our record in games decided by three points or less this year is dismal - what is it now, 5-6? Terrible. None of our big three have seen the finals, and have not played in the playoffs together. As experienced as we are, we're not experienced together, and we haven't shed enough blood in close wars yet. Our chemistry is mostly good, so I do think we can overcome that.
However, I have not seen the ability in our team to "take it to the next level" when times get rough. I have seen first hand how Detroit, and Cleveland (mostly LeBron) can raise their level of play when it's needed. The Celtics in the 80's and just about every great team can shift into a completely different gear. Dennis Johnson, in particular, was almost a completely different player in the playoffs opposed to the regular season, and as good as Larry Bird was - he was always his best in the playoffs. Who on our team can play much better than how they are now? Perhaps no one individual, so we need to play better as a team.
Rondo has proven to me that he can get it done in the regular season. Can he do it in the playoffs? I don't know. He's going to need to stay agressive and keep shooting well. If Rondo continues to improve, and can do in the playoffs what he's doing now, we don't have major point guard worries. He's young enough to play 40 minutes in the playoffs when the rotation gets short... he just has to play well enough during that time. We only have to worry if he gets hurt, but that goes for other players and teams as well. Rondo may in fact, be our most important player.
Pierce has disappointed me. There are flashes of the player I want him to be, but he's just not there. In my opinion, he could be a 20/7/7 player on this team. He should be a triple double threat every night, but he just doesn't play that way. The assists would come with better team play on our part. Phoenix is averaging 27.22 assists per game, we are at 21.82.. *New Jersey* is at 23.85 assists per game.
After seeing how Pierce has played through this point in the season, I would suggest that our best chance of winning is if the ball goes more to Garnett and we play inside out more.
Garnett is a terrific passer in the paint, and even marginal players like Perk, Powe, and Big Baby can get the job done alongside of Kevin. I had wanted Pierce take his playmaking to the next level, but he hasn't. He's taken his defense up a notch, but offensively, he's not risen to a new level, despite the surrounding talent.
I do think that Ray, Paul and Kevin will have their nights and depending on matchups, we'll be better off focusing on one rather than the other, but for the most part - I don't think we have been utilizing Garnett enough. We should start preparing for the playoffs by really getting into the paint more, and going to Garnett.
I think we do have a weakness at backup point guard. In tight games when Eddie House has been in, defenses have taken advantage of him, ditto for Tony Allen (but not as badly).
Either we need to instill more confidence in Tony Allen at backup PG, or we need to find another player who can handle the ball in tough situations besides Rondo because Eddie House won't get it done in the playoffs in that role. If Rondo gets himself into foul trouble and can't play important situations in the fourth quarter, right now, we don't have a good alternative. Eddie is good for giving Ray Allen a spell during the game, but not at backup PG in critical situations.
Big Baby vs. Powe? *Big shrug* I think Big Baby is the better player, but he's also a rookie. Play him big minutes now, and he'll probably hit a wall in the spring. I almost think that Glenn is using Powe more now so that Big Baby learns how to play hard, while also not getting burned out for the playoffs. As we get towards the end of the year, I hope to see Big Baby replace Powe in the rotation. I think he and Garnett work well together. Aside from Garnett, I think Baby is the best big we have (sorry Perk). That doesn't mean I think Baby is going to be a great player one day... it means the dropoff from Garnett to our next big is like falling off a cliff. We do not have Robert Parish and Kevin McHale here.
My playoff rotation : Garnett, Perk, Baby, Posey, Pierce, Allen, Allen, Rondo... with some splashes of Eddie in there. Subject to change depending on our March 1 roster.
I love that Delonte West is in Cleveland. If he can't get it done there alongside LeBron, with Gibson being hurt, then he's going to be a career backup. I still have hopes that he is good enough to start on a title team, but he has to prove it and rise to the challenge ahead of him. Good luck Delonte.
Gerald belongs in Houston, and he'll be working his butt off there.
Yi is quietly putting up almost 10/6 a game in his rookie year showing the occasional signs of brilliance. Both Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay are turning into terrific players (while Telfair and Wally have been traded). Gasol was traded to LA for peanuts (remember the rumors about him coming here). I miss Al Jefferson terribly. Durant is great. If we don't win a title during this big three era, the events of this past year will haunt me for the rest of my life.. just like the Spectre of Tim Duncan. What could have been.
I've brought myself close to tears several times this year imagining what it would be like to win a championship again. I'm going to mortgage my house to buy a playoff strip this year if that's what it costs.
I still *majorly* regret not putting $10 grand on the C's when they were at 140-1 odds of winning a title last year before the draft.
I'm still thinking that Reggie Miller will join us. Not sure if that would really make us significantly better or not. He sounds comfortable in his broadcasting booth, but he has said on several occasions that he didn't think he could mentally do an entire season, but he could do six months. He said that his body was ready after doing two a days, so physically he would be fine. If he's going to try it, he'll decide before March 1st. Realistically, he won't. But it would make us even more interesting.
It wouldn't hurt to get another experienced rebounder on the team as well.
I'd take Cassell, but be fine without him. I like Gabe Pruitt, wish he'd get a few minutes every now and again. Dwight Howard in the dunk contest was totally sick. Ray Allen was the MVP of the All-Star game and should be doing the three point shootout. I said that Monta Ellis would be a great player, but not a good fit for our team.. right on the first part, wrong on the second, he's more unselfish than I thought he would be. I'd love to have him here.
What I'm hoping for this year... one of two scenerios : beating LA or beating San Antonio for the title. LA for the history of the rivalry, and SA because they have been consistently the best team during the Tim Duncan era. Beating them would really mean something...
Goals until the playoffs - stay healthy, stay healthy, stay healthy.
I'll be back when the playoffs start, or perhaps to offer a comment again if something unusual happens.
