RealGM

Posted: **Fri Mar 14, 2008 3:14 am**

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Records-080313&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2finsider%2fcolumns%2fstory%3fcolumnist%3dhollinger_john%26page%3dRecords-080313

The career record most likely to be broken in the next 15 years is the record for 3-pointers, currently held by Reggie Miller at 2,560.

Ray Allen is hot on his heels at 2,071, and the method estimates he has a 97 percent chance. That's only because we are honoring the Bill James rule that no "Favorite Toy" probability can exceed 97 percent. What the method is really saying, in this case, is that Allen will break the record if he isn't injured. Allen's established rate is 198 per season, so even if he cools off a bit with age, he'll break it at some point in 2010-11.

Kobe has alot of records he can break. What surprised me the most is that he has the best chance to break most career turnovers record.

Posted: **Fri Mar 14, 2008 4:00 am**

One record that will never be broken: http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... areer.html

Posted: **Fri Mar 14, 2008 4:08 am**

Bleeding Green wrote:One record that will never be broken: http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... areer.html

He's the man!

Posted: **Fri Mar 14, 2008 5:06 am**

cool article.

i think a lot of those records are a little more vulnurable. most of the guys who hold those records played longer then the formula allows. you have to assume some of the guys chasing these records will stick around a few extra years.

Posted: **Fri Mar 14, 2008 5:47 am**

And in 8-10 years will 42 years old be prohibitively old for an NBA player?

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OT: NBA records that are up for grabs.

OT: NBA records that are up for grabs.