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Draft, Deal & Develope

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Post#1 » by LongTimeFan » Thu Apr 17, 2008 1:11 pm

Rondo - A keeper.

Powe - This one may be a keeper. This is one quality trading chip. Not quite as good as Jeffersen, but dang close. A lot closer than we have any right to have.

Baby - Let's see how he weighs in next year. Too early to tell. Lot's of favorables, but 320 pounds. No market value.

Pruitt - should have started him. Casual on defense. Passing and handle were pretty good. No market value.

Allen - Seen enough. Sign to a three year deal. That block was vintage TA. He'll be taking over games on the defensive end next year. Great role player to have. Little market value.

What do you think Powe and the pick gets us?
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Post#2 » by BillessuR6 » Thu Apr 17, 2008 1:26 pm

Why would we even consider trading Powe? He has been phenomenal in the second half of the season. We need to keep him not think about trading him.

I really can`t understand why people want to trade Leon. It makes zero sense!
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Post#3 » by Tricky Ricky » Thu Apr 17, 2008 1:26 pm

Are you saying we should have started Pruitt last night? If so even if he scored 100 pts his market value would be equal its only one game, and as much as I love Powe I think Big Baby has more trade value than him
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Post#4 » by Celts17Pride » Thu Apr 17, 2008 1:57 pm

thebirdman wrote:Why would we even consider trading Powe?


We don't.

A guy with Leon's production making $700,000. You have to be stupid to trade him.

Who do you get back in return making $700k that would be more productive?

This team is in the luxury tax land and a guy like Powe is perfect for a team that's paying the luxury tax.
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Post#5 » by GregB » Thu Apr 17, 2008 2:17 pm

thebirdman wrote:Why would we even consider trading Powe? He has been phenomenal in the second half of the season. We need to keep him not think about trading him.

I really can`t understand why people want to trade Leon. It makes zero sense!


Because after next year he is going to see a considerable raise from his 700k. I absolutely love Leon. But if Ainge felt he could make a deal for a cost controlled player for the next 3-4 years. Then it might be worthwhile to do so. Hopefully though, We can work out an extension fair to both sides this offseason. But If he is looking for an extension starting at full mle. Then we might have to go in another direction.
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Post#6 » by hiphop1 » Thu Apr 17, 2008 2:23 pm

I dont think Pruitts defense is "casual" at all, I have read only good things about his defense.
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Post#7 » by sully00 » Thu Apr 17, 2008 2:26 pm

Leon is a really interesting situation. On this team he is a back up PF probably maxing out at 15-17 mpg. Don't get me wrong he may be the best damn backup PF in the NBA, but he isn't going to be a starter here so that is pretty much his ceiling unless he can develop at the SF spot and take over Posey's role in a year. Holding on to Leon isn't going to hurt this team even if he has a ceiling.

Now what is the value of an undersized PF, even a great one, in a trade, I don't know. I think that both Leon and Baby are situation guys. They could be great players in the right situation. Davis' best situation is right here in Boston, next to a great defensive PF on a team that will make use of his offensive skill set. Kind of short and fat has worked well next to KG in the past.

Now Leon has done very well in Boston but not next to KG. I can't help but think that he couldn't be a legit starter if not star being someone's Oakley to say Dwight Howard's Ewing. Another situation would be POR who has Oden added to a stacked young front court, that could probably sacrifice a little size for some toughness. At that point it becomes a would you, could you swap Leon for Channing Frye.

When you look at trades teams are going to trade for who a guy is not who is going to be. Big Baby is a rookie who has done some things who is a little short and a lot fat. Leon is a 2nd year guy with shaky knees, a lot short and strong as bear.

My guess is that Leon stays if we win it all nobody will want to cough up what he is worth to this team. Now if we struggle against the Lakers because they are rolling out 7' at the 3 frontcourt spots and they are as young a team as there in the league well we may have to look at our options.
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Post#8 » by billfromBoston » Thu Apr 17, 2008 2:49 pm

sully00 wrote:Leon is a really interesting situation. On this team he is a back up PF probably maxing out at 15-17 mpg. Don't get me wrong he may be the best damn backup PF in the NBA, but he isn't going to be a starter here so that is pretty much his ceiling unless he can develop at the SF spot and take over Posey's role in a year. Holding on to Leon isn't going to hurt this team even if he has a ceiling.

Now what is the value of an undersized PF, even a great one, in a trade, I don't know. I think that both Leon and Baby are situation guys. They could be great players in the right situation. Davis' best situation is right here in Boston, next to a great defensive PF on a team that will make use of his offensive skill set. Kind of short and fat has worked well next to KG in the past.

Now Leon has done very well in Boston but not next to KG. I can't help but think that he couldn't be a legit starter if not star being someone's Oakley to say Dwight Howard's Ewing. Another situation would be POR who has Oden added to a stacked young front court, that could probably sacrifice a little size for some toughness. At that point it becomes a would you, could you swap Leon for Channing Frye.

When you look at trades teams are going to trade for who a guy is not who is going to be. Big Baby is a rookie who has done some things who is a little short and a lot fat. Leon is a 2nd year guy with shaky knees, a lot short and strong as bear.

My guess is that Leon stays if we win it all nobody will want to cough up what he is worth to this team. Now if we struggle against the Lakers because they are rolling out 7' at the 3 frontcourt spots and they are as young a team as there in the league well we may have to look at our options.


...still holding on the the Baby vs. Powe stance you took at season's start, eh Sully?

Leon has played virtually no time next to KG, so saying he doesn't fit with KG on the court is just nonsense-what is there, like a 50 minute sample on that?

Fact is, there is certainly more than 15-17 minutes on average every night for Powe to play if the Celtics go primarily with a 3 big rotation...KG already plays 8-12 minutes at Center against quite a few teams and Perkins is still a 25-30mpg player...

The Celtics only need a situational 2nd center to battle the few competent big men that can truly take advantage of Powe on the block, this is not an every game thing by any stretch for a player who is as productive as Powe...he clearly wins his matchup almost every time...

Glen Davis has a long way to go before he's on Powe's level...as i thought in the beginning of the season, Powe's defense, rebounding and ability to finish around the basket were all that was going to be asked of the backup 4 spot and he showed that he was exceptional at it...

The team will make Powe an extention offer and in 3-4 seasons when he's up for another extention he'll be looking at the type of PT his production deserves..until then, i'd be shocked if he doesn't find himself on the court 20+ minutes a night most nights...
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Post#9 » by Pogue Mahone » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:11 pm

billfromBoston wrote:Leon has played virtually no time next to KG, so saying he doesn't fit with KG on the court is just nonsense-what is there, like a 50 minute sample on that?


Just so it's out there:

Glen Davis has played ~192 MP with Kevin Garnett. Leon Powe has been paired with Garnett for ~73 MP.

Davis/Garnett line-ups scored 401 points on 350 possessions. They allowed 351 points on 345 possessions. That resulted in an offensive efficiency of 114.57 and a defensive efficiency of 101.74. Or a difference of 12.83 points per 200 possessions (100 offensive + 100 defensive.)

Powe/Garnett line-ups scored 166 points on 138 possessions. They allowed 118 points on 133 possessions. That resulted in an offensive efficiency of 120.29 and a defensive efficiency of 88.72. Or a difference of 31.57 points per 200 possessions.

Garnett's units, regardless of pairings, scored 5003 points on 4423 possessions. They allowed 4267 points on 4402 possessions. That resulted in an offensive efficiency of 113.11 and a defensive efficiency of 96.83. Or a difference of 16.28 points per 200 possessions.

So with Davis/Garnett, there was a slight uptick in scoring and a drastic decline in defense as compared to Garnett's total units. With Powe/Garnett, there was a drastic improvement in both scoring and defense. Small sample size, yes, but I am betting that it is real. It is not like Davis/Garnett is some huge sample, either.
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Post#10 » by LongTimeFan » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:32 pm

Well DA trades when the market value of the player is high.

I love Powe and hope he's not traded. The great Celtics teams have always had a player to scrap up the offensive glass. It demoralises the opponent.

That said Powe's market value is very high for a late second round pick. Powe and our pick should easily get us a lottery pick. Powe may be short for a PF, but his reach is huge. Those arms and hands are exceptional. He is looking a lot like Brandt.

I don't see Powe and Baby both staying over the long term.
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Post#11 » by armageddon » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:49 pm

Powe is absolutely critical to the future (including playoffs) success of this team. You can count on one hand the number of PF's in this league with his attitude, muscle, rebounding, offense efficiency, defense, and ability to get to the foul line. He may be the best PF coming off the bench in the league. Could he start for another team, yes. Will he start here, no, because up to this point he is a black hole on offense with very few assists. This is great for a second unit guy where points are needed but not for a starter playing with PGA.
Powe will be choosing his destiny when his contract expires. Some may think he is useful as a trading chip to move up in the draft, but as DA has stated, the guy being drafted would definately have to be an upgrade. How high would you have to move up in this draft to get a player who is better than Powe. This isn't going to happen.
Powe will be this team's Cornbread or Malone.
Davis has value and has shown he belongs in this league. However, I feel if he cannot lose weight and pick up minutes at "small" forward, his lack up height limits him. Would you trade him for a late first rounder? Tough call.
Pruitt has definate value. He is a possibility for a draft upgrade trade, since his position presently is not one of need. He's a promising player with a cheap contract. Possibly worth more to another team than a late first rounder with a higher contract and less proven.
Tony Allen, who knows? This guy baffles me. His key to success seems to be using his pullup jumper more to be his changeup to his fastball.
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Post#12 » by Celts17Pride » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:29 pm

LongTimeFan wrote:Powe and our pick should easily get us a lottery pick.


Please LongTimeFan, put the green kool-aid down. This would never happen in a million years. Powe & the 30th pick are not going to get you a Top 12 pick.
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Post#13 » by UGA Hayes » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:43 pm

If Powe keeps playing this way the list of our best players goes like this

1.KG
2.Pierce
3. Powe
4. Rondo
5. Ray

Thats how well Powe is playing. He has clearly been the third best player for the last two months. Now maybe it will turn out to be a fluke, but if it is, its a hell of a fluke.
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Post#14 » by The_Pope » Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:56 pm

Powe isn't better than Rondo.
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Post#15 » by JJHondo17 » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:25 pm

Can we enjoy the playoffs for a little while before we start deconstucting the roster? However the roster shakes out for next year, I'm sure Danny has gained all our trust.
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Post#16 » by Hemingway » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:36 pm

The question is what is the market value of Powe? We can and probably would try to add Scal to a deal as Powe makes so little and we probably won't end up getting a player on Powe's pay scale.

We will definitely explore what the market value for Powe, Scal and our pick is.
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Post#17 » by LongTimeFan » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:05 pm

Celts17:

The green kool-aod isn't green enough. If a year ago I told you we would have had the best record in the league, you'd have told me to put down the kool-aid, too.

We got Rondo, a top 5 player, for a future mid round pick and some cash. I certainly think Powe, a top ten player of his draft year, and a first is worth quite a bit. Powe is a contributer right now.

If he plays this well in the playoffs, the phones will be ringing off the hook. Powe may have personal, family reasons for wanting to be traded to the West. This may be a win-win.

I love his game and hope we keep him. He does indeed remind me of Satch Sanders, Don Nelson, Maxwell et al. You could hear it in Tommy and Cous' comments.

I think our portfolio of young studs is shallow right now, but we are rebuilding it.

I don't think any decision will be made until after the playoffs. But his value is very high right now for a two year #47 pick.
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Post#18 » by Celts17Pride » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:53 pm

LongTimeFan wrote:Celts17:

The green kool-aod isn't green enough. If a year ago I told you we would have had the best record in the league, you'd have told me to put down the kool-aid, too.

We got Rondo, a top 5 player, for a future mid round pick and some cash. I certainly think Powe, a top ten player of his draft year, and a first is worth quite a bit. Powe is a contributer right now.

If he plays this well in the playoffs, the phones will be ringing off the hook. Powe may have personal, family reasons for wanting to be traded to the West. This may be a win-win.

I love his game and hope we keep him. He does indeed remind me of Satch Sanders, Don Nelson, Maxwell et al. You could hear it in Tommy and Cous' comments.

I think our portfolio of young studs is shallow right now, but we are rebuilding it.

I don't think any decision will be made until after the playoffs. But his value is very high right now for a two year #47 pick.


LTF:

I love Powe like everyone else. It's just that I don't believe someone is going to give the Celtics a Top 12 pick for an undersized PF and the 30th pick.

Let's face it a guy like Powe is a dime a dozen. Yes he is performing at a very high level but teams can find a guy like him in the 2nd round of the draft. Look at guys like Landry, Millsap, Craig Smith, Brandon Bass, Turiaf, are own Glen Davis etc. all 2nd round picks.

Powe has great value for the Celtics but his market value league wide probably isn't as high as you think.
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Post#19 » by billfromBoston » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:04 pm

[quote="Celts17Pride"][/quote]

Powe is statistically out performing every player you named on that list...you don't just "find" players like Powe...he's a top 10 player in his draft class...don't fall for the mis-conception that where he was drafted has anything to do with how good he is...

Powe is averaging 16/8 when playing over 20 minutes per game...as a 2nd year player where are you going to find that?

Powe is an exceptional steal of a player...unless you're getting a star back in a package you're not going to get a better or more efficient role player...Powe could start on many teams in the league based off his production...if he had free reign to do his thing in 30-35 mpg, he could be averaging 17/10 this year...
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Post#20 » by billfromBoston » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:09 pm

[quote="Pogue Mahone"][/quote]

....good to see the numbers backup my initial intuition and then some...

...still no response from you Pogue...is there no way I can convince you to give up a data dump of your play-by-play logs? You kill me every time you bring up these great stats... :banghead:

...what do you have to lose?

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