A Slightly Contrarian View on Posey

[elrod enchilada]

with apologies to Gant, nine reasons, not ten.

I hope the Cs re-sign James Posey, and I would be willing to offer him the full MLE plus a max raise for the second year of the deal. That is like $11 million.

But I can understand if Danny refuses to go to a third year. A fourth year should be off the table.

My reluctance to offer Posey more than two years is based on several factors:

1. He is going to be 33 in two years. I think there is a decent chance his game will slide a bit by then. As much as I love Posey, and I do, he is a back-up 3. Even at his best he is a complementary player.

2. Posey got a chunk of his minutes at the 4 this season when Doc went small. I think minutes will be scarce for Posey at the 4 this year and in coming years with the development of Big Baby, Powe and possibly (hopefully) O'Bryant. It is going to be difficult enough for those guys to share the 30-35 minutes behind Perk and KG, let alone have another 5-10 to toss Posey's way. So instead of averaging 24 mpg, as he did last year, Posey might be more in the 15 mpg range backing up Pierce, and catching some minutes filling on for Ray with Paul sliding over to the 2.

3. By 2009-10, and certainly 2010-11, and God knows 2011-12, Posey may be fighting for minutes in the rotation. His salary may seem awfully massive by then.

4. Smart teams (like the Spurs) do not lavish long-term deals on the 6th best player on their teams, especially when they are in their 30s. Dumb teams do. It kills roster flexibility down the road. Danny needs to avoid having deadweight contracts on the books. The fact that Danny did not pick up Tony Allen's option for a paltry $1.9 million suggests he is very much aware fo this.

5. It is true that the Cs probably would not have won 17 without Posey. But that does not mean they cannot win 18 without him. The Big Three (sorry KG, I am using that moniker for shorthand purposes) should stay in their prime for two more seasons. Rondo and Perkins should improve, possibly a great deal, over the next two seasons. And I do not think it unrealistic that at least one or two of the other kids on the roster should make a big leap in the next year or two. The Cs are hardly static.

6. The toughness and experience that Posey brought to the table is less important now. The Cs won a title. Perk and Rondo have that experience now.Perk is a tough guy. So is Powe. Rondo is small but tough as nails. These are not a lot of cowering babes in the woods any more.

7. Posey may not exactly be replaceable, but there are less expensive options that can fill in at the back-up 3 next year with short-term deals. And Danny might be able to get a vet at mid-season a la PJ and Cassell if it is apparent that it is a crying need.

8. If the Cs can keep Posey to a two-year deal, that means that after 2010 their cap situation is flexible. In a worse case scenario and for whatever reason it is clear that the Cs ship has sailed and the team in no longer a contender, Danny will be in a position to get the team under the cap by 2011, and retool. In a better situation, it will give Danny more options to add a needed piece to enhance the chance of aniother title.

9. The luxury tax. I take Wyc at his word that the owners allow Danny to concentrate just on basketball decisions and not worry about the money unless it affects his maneuverability surrounding the cap. But I think Danny wants to be extra careful when he inks deals that basically count for double because of the luxury tax. I think he can't go to that well too often, and it may be that a 3 or 4 year contract to Posey is the one chance he has at that route, before the owners wince. Danny might want to use that option in a different manner. I would.

So I would love to have Posey back, but I am comfortable with an approach that says two years and no mas.

elrod

[sam_I_am]

Nice post. However, I do think that teams like the Spurs have always recognized the value of proven tested veterans and have signed guys like Barry, Horry and Finley to contracts.

Cleveland Cavaliers are a perfect example of what a cast of veterans can do for a superstar. This year when they totally turned over their roster exchanging a bunch a below average starters for what seemed like an even worse group they were able to push the best team in the NBA to the limit.

Posey is average but what he does wins games. His in your face defense, the way he contests every play, the way he beats up the opponent did in fact contribute greatly to our championship. Posey at the 4 was huge and to think that Powe, Davis,or Perkins can ever bring to that position what he did is just not likely. Posey was a threat from 3 point range so when teams payed attention to him Garnett and Pierce had a field day. When they cheated off him (instead of Ray or House) he burned them - which is his mark of greatness in that he hit the shots that he was always a threat to make.

Giddens or Walker if they are home runs for draft picks perhaps could be Posey like after 3-4 years of playoff experience.

[EJay33]

The Celtics are still trying to win the NBA Championship, right? In your post you even say that the big three will only likely stay in their collective prime for another two years. The Celtics were fortunate that one NBA Franchise was selling and willing to dump a Hall of Fame SG for a pick and Delonte West, and the Celts were even more fortunate that another team was willing to trade a top-5 NBA Player for a decent young big man and cap filler.

Chances of the Celtics being able to parlay JR Giddens, Leon Powe, Gabe Pruitt, and Big Baby Davis into Dwayne Wade and Amare Stoudemire three years from now are slim. I won't say impossible because of what happened last year but the odds are not in our favor. You absolutely make Posey the offer that you reasonably expect him to accept. He contributed a lot to a championship team, his contract demands are not unreasonable, and his value can not be replaced by anyone else on the market. He defends three positions, spreads the floor, takes charges, is a leader, and can give you an occasional big scoring game.

I don't understand this. Everyone on this board was ready to throw the full MLE at an ancient Karl Malone when the team was in the midst of an endless streak of 30-something win seasons. Now that the team is a legitimate contender and defending champion the fans have cold feet about offering the full MLE to by far the best player that we can reasonably expect to accept it? Why?

Kelenna Azubuike is a nice player, but the Celts are trying to win NBA Championships right now. Who gives us a better chance of winning right now, PO-Z or Azubuike? KG, Ray, and Paul aren't going to hold up forever. Surround them with veteran team mates who know how to work hard and know how to win and sit back and enjoy.

[elrod enchilada]

Godmoney--

You make the case for Posey well, and I agree with much of it. That is why the post is titles "slightly." If the Cs do go to three years, I would hope that Danny could construct a frontloaded deal, maybe $5.5 million, then $5 mllion, and the third year at $4.5 million.

And if someone offers James 4 years at MLE rates, I am prepared to say "see you later." If someone offers Posey a three year deal with annual max raises, that is a trickier prosition., I suspect that is where the negotiations are taking place right noww, becasue no one seems to be offering 4 years at MLE rates.

elrod

[EJay33]

I'd say just say make Posey a fair offer and don't expect him to take less here just because we're the Celtics than he could make elsewhere. I can't say what type of money or years hes seeing from other teams, but I do know that a lot of teams are interested and I also know that he would really help a lot of those teams. It is entirely possible that he is getting max money/max years offers. He is basically the new Horry. He is just huge. He is asking for the MLE, not a max deal. I don't see what the holdup is. I'd rather get him on a two year deal as well, but even after 5 years the guy will be 36.

Dasagana Diop just got full MLE/5 years. And he is terrible. I know that Cuban is kind of an idiot but I'm sure that deal hasn't been forgotten by Posey's agent. It's not like we're signing Scalabrine to a 5-year deal here (which we did). This is James Posey. It is tough for me to say what money or years I'd personally offer - but I just want Danny to get it done and I'm not going to be upset even if its for max years/money allowable by the MLE.

[Pogue Mahone]

For me, I wouldn't exceed $11.5M/3 Years. But that's me.

[Marley2Hendrix]

for a real quick response, posey is simply a matchup player. Had we faced the spurs, posey would have been a shell of his play against LA (A team he matched up w/ perfectly) and wouldn't have looked so hot forced to play sparse minutes backing up paul at the 3 and matching up with manu.

Just look at his numbers and minutes this postseason. ATL w/ horford as a 5 and small frontcourt, Pose plays a lot, against the bigger cleveland, less success, against the rough frontline of detroit, not very effective which was masked by RayRay coming out of his slump and the big 3 finally clicking at once.

Sure the c's struggled early in the postseason, but we were firing on 2 cylinders, the boys hadn't played a meaningful game in weeks... frankly w/ or w/o James this team will be quite improved next year. I don't think we need Pose to beat the Pistons/Cavs and to a greater extent, he's much less valuable playing against many of the larger WC powers that we might see in the finals than the lakers w/ have a smallish frontcourt and don't play D. (hell, next year when they have pau at the 4 and bynum at the 5, posey would have trouble seeing more than 15 minutes.)

[ryaningf]

Godmoney,

Just because Cuban gave Diop a ridiculous contract doesn't mean anything. When another team makes a questionable decision it doesn't mean we have to follow them down the road of stupidity. If Posey or his agent thinks they can get a better deal (for 4 years or more), then great, enjoy the money and the losing (because a team with a GM stupid or desperate enough to go 4 years for Posey probably has made, or will make, more stupid decisions that will handicap that team's ability to compete). With the Big 3 making nearly our entire salary cap, we're just not going to hand out stupid contracts to bench players on the downside of their career. It's just not going to happen.

Elrod, I agree with pretty much everything you said. I would add my hunch that if Posey isn't resigned, you're going to see the Cs resign Tony Allen for defense on some pretty cheap money, and then see the team sign an offensive 3/4 who can hit the three (Mo Evans, Barnes, etc...). And you know what, that might be the best outcome in this whole situation. Tony Allen, when healthy (which he should be next season) is a better player than Posey, and we can get him at a huge discount.

I love Posey as much as anyone, but I think if we went back and looked at the playoffs as a whole, we'd see that Posey was getting beat off the dribble pretty consistently by J. Johnson, Lebron, and Kobe. Sure he'd had a few good quarters here and there where he made big, clutch plays. But for the most part, he couldn't stay with those guys. And he's only going to be slower next year.... Ainge knows exactly what he's doing. Posey, at best, is only worth full MLE money for two years.

[Bad-Thoma]

I agree with Elrod 100% on this one. It'd be great to have Posey back, but not for a contract that'll come back to haunt us. If other teams are going to over value Posey and House because of our championship run, say Thank Ya and move on. I'm spoiled now, I want to see this team competitive beyond the next 2 years, strapping our cap to retain roleplayers isn't going to accomplish that.

[sully00]

Great post Elrod.

The Spurs gave out 3 year deals well below market value for their players, why bring up Robert Horry (3 years 3mil per), Bowen (2 years 4mil per), and Finley (3 years 3mil per) if what he gets isn't good enough for James Posey.

I do expect Posey or anyone else to take a little less to come to Boston now, we are selling a shot a title. SA, PHX, and DET do it why can't Boston? At the same time if he can get both he should take it.

As far as the value in cap space in two years. The Clippers just traded cap space for an All Star center and defensive player of the year winner. That is exactly the kind of move Boston wants to be in position to do to replace Ray in two years.

[Rocky5000]

Good points Sully. I don't think Posey should really be making more than any of those guys. I agree 100% with Elrod on this point and then some. At this point in this long drawn out process, I don't care if Posey takes the deal or not. If our team is functioning as Danny has planned, then Posey's role will only be diminishing in the next couple of years as guys like Giddens, and Walker develop into high quality backup players. Powe is already a better option than Posey to play the backup 4 positoin. I also think that at something like 16-22 minutes a game of backup 3, Posey will be less valuable this year than last. If we lost Posey and didn't add anyone else, we could reduce the time available, and replace the remaining time with guys like Giddens, Walker, Scal, and Possibly TA. Having Posey on the team was a luxury that allowed us to reduce the minutes of Ray and Paul, possibly lengthening their careers.(Although I've never bought into 6-8 more minutes of basketball ruining a player.)

[cope1]

Don't under-estimate his value! Sign Posey now we need him. Ainge is playing the business game, we don't want to be another Miami barring injuries. Get him on board, it is key to chances for #18. Do it IMHO!

I don't want to wait another 20 years for another championship. We know KG will bring the same intensity, Paul is a tough cover every night and Ray is money in the clutch. But in my humble opinion I really think we need him as the first key guy off the bench.

Lets optimize our chances for #18 and dam the future, winning now takes care of that. Really, when you think about it who out there do we need for the MLE other than Posey? Get the deal done Danny....

[canman1971]

Don't under-estimate his value! Sign Posey now we need him. Ainge is playing the business game, we don't want to be another Miami barring injuries. Get him on board, it is key to chances for #18. Do it IMHO!

This is why RealGM posters are not real general managers. They don't see reality. Not having Posey is not why Miami did not repeat or were even good. Wade got hurt (51 games played) and Shag (40 games played) got old. If Posey is not signed, somebody will fill his shoes and perhaps even do better. PGA makes guys like Posey look a lot better than he really is. PGA will make someone look much better next year than they really are, whether it is Posey's replacement(?) or another player such as Pruitt, POB, etc...

[MyInsatiableOne]

^^Exactly. Again, as I was saying in another thread, it's all about CONTEXT...put Posey on, say, the Lakers or Suns and I guarantee he doesn't look quite as good as he did here...

[royalgreen]

Couldnt agree more w/#6

ive posted b4 that posey got us over the hump of winning the title, and we did it on the first try-----that was huge
We have the confidence of a defending champ that will only get better--------our main guys played together for the first time and only for one season

the chemistry will only get better




that said---we need to get more atheletic and have some bigger frontcourt options
house, TA, Harrison/Birdman, other FAs (Ross/Az) >> Posey
plus giddens is Lebrons age and his contributing as a rookie is highly possible

Ive been a huge doc hater, but given multiple options off the bench he is dam good

[cope1]

True, none of us are qualified to be GM's, but we all love the Celtics ann want them to get #18. Injuries were a key factor and probably the biggest. BUt letting Posey go was not a good starting point. My point is that Posey is a key piece and I disagree that anybody can fill his shoes. If that is true we have Scal and his intangibles (just kidding). We need Posey and I think we are underestimating his value.

[Barry Lird]

As far as the value in cap space in two years. The Clippers just traded cap space for an All Star center and defensive player of the year winner. That is exactly the kind of move Boston wants to be in position to do to replace Ray in two years.

I've seen this idea of having enough cap space to make a big splash in 2010 talked about recently. There's a good thread over on CB that pretty thoroughly debunks it as a legitimate possibility, in my view. See: http://www.celticsblog.com/index.php?op ... ic=21190.0

I think Hobbs had a pretty thorough breakdown of the scenario:

Here's what I wrote in the Free Agency FAQ:

13) Looking at the above chart, it looks like the Celtics only have around $49 million in salaries committed for 2010. If the cap goes up to around $65 million, does that mean they can spend $16 million on free agents? Could they then resign Ray Allen with their Bird rights?

No and no. Surprising to many, free agents continue to count against a team's salary cap until they're either signed or renounced. This is called a "cap hold". Free agents essentially count against the cap at a figure greater than their previous salary.

The amount of these cap holds varies significantly; for actual percentages, see here. For purposes of the Celtics, Ray Allen would have a cap hold in excess of $20 million. While the team could renounce Ray, if they did so they would only be able to pay him the minimum salary.

Of even more significance is the cap hold of Rajon Rondo. As a restricted free agent, he carries a cap hold of 300% of his previous salary, or approximately $6.3 million. Thus, under the above scenario, the Celtics actual cap room would be approximately $10 million, rather than the $16 million anticipated. Further, there would be additional salary slots or cap holds for any other players on the roster. Long story short, unless we're starting over with ten or more new players, we don't have significant cap room in 2010-11, even if we renounce Ray.

So, with four players on our roster (and Ray Allen renounced), we'd have maybe $10 million in cap room. Also, teams must have 12 players on their roster; for every player less than 12, the team is charged a "cap charge" equal to the rookie minimum salary ($457,588 in 2010). That's equal to $3,660,704.

So, all total, we're looking at right around $6.4 million in cap room, or an amount roughly equal to the MLE. That's if we renounce *all* of the free agents from our roster. So, we'd be essentially a team with four starters, potentially J.R. Giddens, and a bunch of new guys, all for $6.4 million in cap space.

In other words, no, we're not positioned well for 2010.

[ryaningf]

Depends what you mean by "positioned well for 2010." If we take Ray's expiring contract, bundle it with Scals, that's a pretty nice chunk of change to trade to a team positioning themselves to be a player in the 2010 free agent sweepstakes. We could easily 'reload' with that trade, getting a couple of young pieces. As an example, if Charlotte wants to clear room for a run at Wade or somebody, we could trade them Ray and Scal for Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace. I'm just throwing that out there as a possibility.

[hickfromfrenchlick]

I agree with all that EE. As much as I love Posey, I don't want to hand him $25M. No way.

Now, if only Ainge could borrow Brent Barry's DeLorean and go back in time and decide not to give Scal a 5-year contract.

[sully00]

Barry Lird

The missing piece in having cap room in 10/11 is Pierce's contract. He has a 21 million dollar option in 10/11 after next season he is elgible for another 3 year extension. It would seem reasonable that he would be open to a 3 year extension simliar to what KG signed, starting at 16 mil in the first year to free up cap space for that season.

Reduce Pierce from 21.5 mil to 16.4 mil and you are back to looking at 10-11 mil in space. I don't think this is a situation that you are looking to sign a player in FA. On the contrary there are probably about 15-20 nba contracts that will be in that value range in a season when franchise caliber FA's hit the market. It will not be the kind of space to land LeBron but it could be the kind of space that makes it possible to trade for Kevin Martin or Gerald Wallace just as examples as teams look to gain cap space.

It may indeed never be anything as Boston's young players improve and other changes are made but what you don't do is tie your hands up on an overpriced contract for a then 33-34 year old back up SF.