How to get a max contract free agent in 2010

[elrod enchilada]

I plan to do some more research on this and write up a piece in a few months, but I would not mind getting some feedback before I proceed.

The Cs are going to need a superstar to remain competitive after KG begins to fade. It will very difficult, if not almost impossible, to get a free agent anywhere except free agency. There will be a number of major free agents in the summer of 2010 including LBJ and Wade.

In 2010 it will be very difficult for the Cs to get sufficiently under the cap to offer a max contract salary, especially since the team is playing for all the marbles in 2009 and 2010. I assume we will extend Rondo and want to keep one or both of Powe and Big Baby. Even if we renounce Ray, we will still be no more than 10-12 million under the cap, by my very rough estimates.

Here is how we might ber able to do it: Paul Pierce is owed $21 million in 2010-11, the last year of his current contract. Paul has the option of rejecting his final year and going on the free agent market. Perhaps the Cs could get Paul to do so, and then sign a 5 year deal beginning at $10 million in 2010-11 with annual million dollar raises. That makes it a $60 million deal. This might not be a huge step down for Paul. Were he to take his $21 million in 2010-11 and then hit free agency, I am not certain he would do better than $40 million for the four years from 2011-15. He might be more than willing to make such a deal. After all, Paul turns 33 in 2010, would be a soon-to-be 34 year-old free agent in 2011, and would be 36 in the final year of the five year deal.

If he is, the Cs would be in a position to offer a max contract to LBJ or Wade. Boston might be an attractive place to play for a superstar.

Thoughts?

elrod

[elrod enchilada]

oops. Paul would be 37 in the final season of a 5 year deal signed in 2010, not 36.

[Rocky5000]

It seems very possible to me. I just wonder how large Rondo's contract will be and if Ray and Paul will be willing to take pay cuts. A lot of players talk about being in it for the team, but when it comes time to actually go through with it, they have different feelings. But as you said, maybe they will be worth less than their current deals on the open market. However, if we win another championship, or 2, that's not very likely. Championship players always seem to get big pay-days and are usually overpaid, even if they are aging. (Exhibit A. James Posey) I'm not sure what the last contending team that was able to sign a superstar of the level of LBJ or Wade out of free agency was. The Magic paid a lot for Lewis but he's not near the level of LBJ and Wade, and they were not really considered contenders in 06-07. Same goes for Brand and Phila. The last guy of the level of Wade or LeBron to jump in FA that I can think of would be Shaq way back in '96.

[Bluewhale]

I assume we will extend Rondo and want to keep one or both of Powe and Big Baby.
elrod

This is a mistake. The key is not extending Rondo. This is simple. If it's LBJ or Rondo, I will drive Rondo to Logan by myself.

Is this too risky? I don't think so. Spurs did this years ago when they resigned Parker. Before resigned Parker, they tried to land Kidd or Jermaine O'Neal.

[Rocky5000]

There's an idea. If we're allowing ourselves to dream, have LeBron or Wade play pg.
Lebron or Wade
Ray
Pierce
KG
Ring Chasing Center?

LOL. Deadly team, that will 99.5% of the time never happen.

[CavemanDoctor]

Reasonable idea. The thought of Pierce going for it is not out of the realm of possibility.

[BillessuR6]

We talked about this a few weeks back. I think we could get around 12-13 million under the cap but not enough for a max contract.

I think the more realistic way to get a superstar is to trade Ray Allen in his last year (+Scal, House, Tony if more expiring contracts are needed)+ a pick+a young player or two...

Maybe DEN will grow tired of Melo by then and will try to rebuild. So something like Anthony+Nene for Ray+Scal+Tony+Giddens+Obryant+1 st rounder might be enough...

[Dave_From_NB]

(Sorry, duplicate post)

[Dave_From_NB]

Lebron James, Duane Wade, Chris Bosh (that's as far as I've looked) all have player options, and it's a bit premature to assume they're all going to opt out and move to another team. As I understand it, the players are not likely to announce whether they are accepting their player option until after the 09/10 season finishes, so anyone loading up to make a run at them might completely strike out.

I think the right strategy is for the Celtics to avoid a bidding war for whatever free agents are available. I believe what the Celtics should be looking to do, is take advantage of teams dumping payroll, by moving expiring contracts (Scal and Ray Allen), and pick up young guys with upside and high draft picks. Grabbing a guy like Bynam before breakout year is the key, or drafting a guy like Paul with a draft pick you've heisted.

Sure as shooting, some team is going to strip their roster hoping for Lebron or another big name, and completely strike out, and their 2011 first round pick is lottery gold. For example, of the Nets and Knicks, at least one (if not both) are going to strike out on Lebron, and if they miss other big names as well they're going to completely stink in 10/11. Teams able to grab their first round picks are going to really have done something.

BTW, it's not clear to me that Piece has opt-out rights in 2010. I see RealGM indicates it, but others (e.g. Hoopshype) don't indicate the same thing. And I don't see anything in press releases at the time about 3'rd year of the extension having been optional. Somewhere is the "truth".

[ranter34]

elrod, I think timing is everything when it comes to the free agent process (see Brand, Elton)

make sure you have all the dates figured out before making assumptions

for example, with the situation a poster above mentioned waiving Rondo for a shot at LeBron, when do you have to renounce rights? if you are waiving Rondo just for a CHANCE to woo LeBron, that's not a good choice

same thing with the Pierce deal you mentioned, can you negotiate with him that way? If he opts out, doesn't he go on the open market? lots of little scenarios to work out

[threrf23]

If I am not mistaken, Rondo's contract and Ray's new contract, if applicable, would do absolutely nothing to cut into the funds we would have available to sign a FA, as long as we signed the FA first, and then signed Rondo and Ray using our rights...

Am I missing something? We can go over the cap to resign Rondo and/or Ray, right?

[MVP16]

If I am not mistaken, Rondo's contract and Ray's new contract, if applicable, would do absolutely nothing to cut into the funds we would have available to sign a FA, as long as we signed the FA first, and then signed Rondo and Ray using our rights...

Am I missing something? We can go over the cap to resign Rondo and/or Ray, right?

No, Rondo and Ray would still have cap holds unless we renounce their rights. I'm not sure the exact amount of the cap hold though.

EDIT: here's the link to the info...

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#30

So if I'm reading this right, Ray would count $28,165,290 and Rondo $6,558,315 against the cap.

[threrf23]

No, Rondo and Ray would still have cap holds unless we renounce their rights. I'm not sure the exact amount of the cap hold though.

EDIT: here's the link to the info...

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#30

So if I'm reading this right, Ray would count $28,165,290 and Rondo $6,558,315 against the cap.

Alright, and I thought I had a good understanding of the cap rules. Oh wel.

We can't renounce Rondo's rights IMO - to risky considering it only buys us 6 mil in cap room. We can try and trade Perk for an expiring contract in 09/10. Ray? Maybe he'll be willing to sign for the MLE after all is said and done.

Question marks include the cap number (perhaps it rises in response to players moving overseas?), and Powe/Davis/O'Bryant/Erdin. Who will be under contract, who can play Center if we trade Perk and have Walker contributing here or there @ PF...they will have cap holds if not contracts...

Also, Powe could conceivably get a nice offer or two next offseason, will we be able to match without screwing up the cap situation for '10/'11...if we don't think so, and his value is high enough right now, and we feel we can survive without him, do we seek to trade him this season?

[ddb]

Couple things: Despite the rumors that Lebron is bound to bolt Cleveland to hoop it up for Jay-Z in Brooklyn, I've heard from a couple quality sources that Lebron is likely to remain in Cleveland. I've been told that Lebron is the type that's looking to have a Jordan-like legacy and remain with the same team throughout his career. So between Cleveland, Brooklyn, NYC, and Europe I would eliminate Lebron James from this conversation.

Ainge without a doubt it going to have to pay Rondo. Rondo is a stud PG and we're gonna want him in green for a long long time. PG's who "get it" don't come along often. He gets it So he's getting paid.

Ray Allen comes off the books in 10. After resigning Rondo and Powe (who's bound to earn a nice paycheck this year) we're probably looking at 10-12 million to play with (like previously stated). KG and Pierce are impact players who'll be stars well into their 30's. They don't rely solely on their athletic ability. With that said I think our best bet to stay competitive at a championship level beyond 2010 is to bring in 1 OR 2 quality role guys to provide depth and allow KG and Pierce to rest during the regular season.

Kg will be able to defend, Pierce will be able to get to the line, and Rondo will be a stud by 2010. We're still a 55-60 win team as long as we have the depth to limit Pierce and Kg to 28-32 mins a night. And as I've learned in San Antonio and what Celtics nation will learn in 08-09, the regular season becomes an extended pre-season when you're an elite team. The key is to be a top-4 seed and healthy heading into the playoffs which is when the REAL season begins. Once the playoffs roll around it's all about execution, depth and experience. And in my opinion the KEY is NOT to sign the best available superstar for max money but to add quality players who know how to win and how to furfill certain roles.

[billfromBoston]

...a couple key points...

1. if the team is under the cap, they can sign-and-trade for the DIFFERENCE in a player's asking price--ie, if Wade, (most likely) is asking for 18 million and Boston only has 10 million under the cap, they can eat the first 10 million and trade Miami 8 million worth of contracts.

2. A team like Miami, who would be rebuilding, would like to have more young assets with potential, so the signing of POB, Miles, Walker, Giddens, Davis, Powe, Pruitt is in line with this.

If the Celtics continue to add exciting young talent to Bolster their existing core the team will both do well and increase the value of the younger assets who contribute-no matter how minor that contribution is.

I think this is one of the primary motivations Danny had this off-season. Regardless of what others think, Ainge likely viewed this years FA class with little value for helping extend the title window. He placed value on Maggette and Posey, but was hard and fast on his desire to keep deals to 2 years or less. He offered minimum money to the other vet FA out there and then decided to go for the high upside signings instead.

I think all of Ainge's actions are geared toward acquiring another stud to extend the contention window. It wouldn't surprise me if Ainge has spoken with GPA about his long-term goals and I doubt such well-paid individuals would balk at taking a paycut after they've made over 150 million each over the life of their careers. These guys want legacy years now and there is no better way to build a legacy than to have multiple rings.

I have little doubt that Pierce will opt-out if it means getting Dwayne Wade or Yao Ming...Ray will likely be ready for 6th man detail at that point, so Wade would work very well in that mix...if both guys come off the books the team can work a sign-and-trade that satisfies Miami's need to re-constitute its roster with talent for rebuilding around Beasley and whomever else they get in the lotto for the next 2 seasons...

..this all depends on Wade's desire to bounce, but it looks possible based on his age and where Miami currently sits in the title contention department...going to Boston would be a lock for Wade to contend, with Rondo/Perk/Powe all coming into their primes as well as whatever hold-over youth remain from such a move...GPA-if all re-signed would add enormous value as support players, Pierce and KG likely still starting....

...those are my thoughts anyways...remember, Ainge stated last summer that he wanted a window of contention of 5-6 years not 2-3, so if he hasn't changed his stated goal, his moves must be viewed with that objective in mind...

[billfromBoston]

Couple things: Despite the rumors that Lebron is bound to bolt Cleveland to hoop it up for Jay-Z in Brooklyn, I've heard from a couple quality sources that Lebron is likely to remain in Cleveland. I've been told that Lebron is the type that's looking to have a Jordan-like legacy and remain with the same team throughout his career. So between Cleveland, Brooklyn, NYC, and Europe I would eliminate Lebron James from this conversation.

Ainge without a doubt it going to have to pay Rondo. Rondo is a stud PG and we're gonna want him in green for a long long time. PG's who "get it" don't come along often. He gets it So he's getting paid.

Ray Allen comes off the books in 10. After resigning Rondo and Powe (who's bound to earn a nice paycheck this year) we're probably looking at 10-12 million to play with (like previously stated). KG and Pierce are impact players who'll be stars well into their 30's. They don't rely solely on their athletic ability. With that said I think our best bet to stay competitive at a championship level beyond 2010 is to bring in 1 OR 2 quality role guys to provide depth and allow KG and Pierce to rest during the regular season.

Kg will be able to defend, Pierce will be able to get to the line, and Rondo will be a stud by 2010. We're still a 55-60 win team as long as we have the depth to limit Pierce and Kg to 28-32 mins a night. And as I've learned in San Antonio and what Celtics nation will learn in 08-09, the regular season becomes an extended pre-season when you're an elite team. The key is to be a top-4 seed and healthy heading into the playoffs which is when the REAL season begins. Once the playoffs roll around it's all about execution, depth and experience. And in my opinion the KEY is NOT to sign the best available superstar for max money but to add quality players who know how to win and how to furfill certain roles.

DDB, I agree with you whole-heartedly...however, Boston's situation is a bit different...GPA are all already in their 30's while San Antonio's team model has revolved around their "big 3" advancing into their 30's...Boston doesn't have the luxury of simply bolstering GPA with solid role players when they are 35, 34, 33 respectively...we're discussing what SA is currently discussing, or should be--how do you move on when your main guys are past their prime and are transitioning into support players....SA has Parker and Boston has Rondo to start that process, but both teams are going to need more than that...Duncan and KG are the reason each team will contend for a title, but are they Karl Malone-esque? Will they be fairly dominant until they're 37-38 years old?

I think you have to position yourself to add a young "replacement star" to hand off the baton to...

[billfromBoston]

I plan to do some more research on this and write up a piece in a few months, but I would not mind getting some feedback before I proceed.

The Cs are going to need a superstar to remain competitive after KG begins to fade. It will very difficult, if not almost impossible, to get a free agent anywhere except free agency. There will be a number of major free agents in the summer of 2010 including LBJ and Wade.

In 2010 it will be very difficult for the Cs to get sufficiently under the cap to offer a max contract salary, especially since the team is playing for all the marbles in 2009 and 2010. I assume we will extend Rondo and want to keep one or both of Powe and Big Baby. Even if we renounce Ray, we will still be no more than 10-12 million under the cap, by my very rough estimates.

Here is how we might ber able to do it: Paul Pierce is owed $21 million in 2010-11, the last year of his current contract. Paul has the option of rejecting his final year and going on the free agent market. Perhaps the Cs could get Paul to do so, and then sign a 5 year deal beginning at $10 million in 2010-11 with annual million dollar raises. That makes it a $60 million deal. This might not be a huge step down for Paul. Were he to take his $21 million in 2010-11 and then hit free agency, I am not certain he would do better than $40 million for the four years from 2011-15. He might be more than willing to make such a deal. After all, Paul turns 33 in 2010, would be a soon-to-be 34 year-old free agent in 2011, and would be 36 in the final year of the five year deal.

If he is, the Cs would be in a position to offer a max contract to LBJ or Wade. Boston might be an attractive place to play for a superstar.

Thoughts?

elrod

I doubt Pierce or Ray would get 10 million per year after their current contracts are up...it may be more feasible that they are looking at 6-7 million, or whatever the MLE is at that point...if that is the case, than you could extend both-Ray at 7 over 3, for 21 million and Pierce for 10 over 5, for 50 million.

Pierce gets the bigger payday because we are factoring in his "compensation" for the passed up 21 million. A 50 million dollar deal gives Pierce 29 million over 4 years, if we pretend he got his 21 million the first year...its like pro-rating in football essentially....Pierce still gets a mid-level deal without giving up money, he just adjusts his payments to be spread out over the life of his new deal...

...it may sound far-fetched to some of you, but well-run organizations always plan ahead. A smart organization keys its leaders into the design plans in order to get the buy-in necissary to plan around their needs....

[ddb]

Bill,

I understand where you're coming from. I would love to see Ainge figure out a way to bring in a guy like Wade, Bosh, etc. I just think that's a long shot. And to be honest with you I think KG at 36 will still be a better player then Bosh at 27-28.

Regarding Duncan and KG...Yes, I honestly believe that both players can be 18-10 players well into their 30's and continue to be championship caliber big men. Neither guy relys on being overly athletic and neither guy is one dimensional ala Amare Stoudamire. KG's passion and energy will never change. His ability to impact a game and motivate his teammates will never chance. KG and Duncan are two of the all-time greats because they're incredibly intelligent on the floor. They're also two of the great leaders in the NBA. They're ALREADY no longer # 1 guys but they're smart enough and talented enough to be #2 guys for another 4-5 years. There isn't a doubt in my mind that suggest otherwise.

But hey, if Ainge can figure out a way to lure in a Wade or Bosh to join forces with KG, Pierce, Rondo, etc then kudos to him....

[Celtsfan1980]

I think Garnett will play for 4 more seasons through his contract, and retire. I think Pierce would follow him. I could be wrong, but I just don't see Pierce playing that long. I think they'd be better off looking at free agents for the 2012 postseason rather than earlier.

[JMillott]

I think the Celtics and Danny Ainge are simply getting into position to have options when we get to the end of Ray Allen's contract. They may very well decide to re-sign Ray Allen at a reduced price tag and he might very well be willing to do so for something like a 2 year 16 million dollar contract.

He may very well show serious signs of decline this year and we may look to deal him next summer as an expiring contract or he might continue a steady decline and we might just let him go after his current deal ends.

I suspect that a good deal of this will hinge on JR Giddens development as well, if we think that Tony Allen and JR Giddens can handle the SG job then i'd suspect we would move on from Ray Allen either next summer or when his contract expires.

I think Danny Ainge intends to make sure that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett retire as Celtics on the other hand. I think we can get a minimum of five more years out of the two of them unless injuries get in the way.

In the meantime we will be building up our stock of athletic and talented youth once again so that when that time comes we can take the salary space Pierce and Garnett took up and sign a new franchise player or two like perhaps Al Jefferson and/or Kevin Durant.