"Experts" predict 55 wins for the Celtics

[Al-Haqq]

What are your thoughts on ESPN saying that the Celtics will be #1 out East, and have only a 55-27 record to show for it?

Too high or too low?

They also have the Lakers at 55-27 meaning that both the C's and the L's will have the best record in the NBA.

A note - there has always been a 60 win team every season since 2000-01. Some times more than 1 team.

* also IF this were to be true, it would be the lowest win total for a #1 team in the NBA in 20+ years, so I tend to think that their predictions may be a little off for some teams.

I'm not sure why the Celtics will lose 11 more games than last season. I think we win between 58-63 games. 62 is what I'm thinking.

Thoughts on your predicted win/loss record?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/stor ... redictions

[Dave_From_NB]

Home court advantage is key, but I hope I see the Celtics play the veterans just enough to gain home court but not have an excessively good regular season record. I think that the key to playoff success will be a combination of rest (and injury avoidance) for APG, as well as the rapid development of the young guys.

55 wins does seem low for best overall record, 60 is more realistic for the C's.

[canman1971]

Good for them. I'll let the players decide how many wins they'll get. Experts my ***!!!

[screwedupmaniac]

so us losing james posey this off season means we're 11 games worse? or is it the fact that the sixers and raptors improved? i wonder how they came up with their prediction, both for us and the lakers.

[Dogen]

Improvements to teams like Sixers and Raptors has something to do with it, but I also do agree that the team is not going to looking to prove a point in the regular season again and may be more content with just securing home court in the layoffs if it means getting more rest for the starters. I'd say 57-60 wins should do it, although I wouldn't be surprised if the team finds some way to put the chip back on it's shoulder and go for over 60. Besides that, staying ahead of the western conference rivals might push the team harder again.

[Rocky5000]

The 'experts' are just trying to be careful with their predictions. You have to remember that the win-loss for the league has to add up to 1230-1230, if other teams are going to improve, then they have to drain wins from someone else. If they expect the Heat to make the playoffs, winning 14 more games that's a big jump in wins. But where will those wins come from? They expect the 6ers to win 7 more games and the Cavs 5 more, the knicks 6 more, the bucks 9 more. The celtics, magic, and pistons combine to lose 23 more games. I think that the 'experts' are pandering to fan bases by trying to show most teams in the east improving at least a little bit. As a result, they have to drag down the elite teams win totals. As drawn out, the experts have the east, as a conference, getting 19 extra wins against the west than we had last year. Now I know Elton moved to Philly, and Beasely and Rose entered the east, but the balance of power didn't shift THAT much. After all, Mr. 11 wins, James Posey is now on the hornets.

[UGA Hayes]

Also I think that the concensus for the moves other teams made is that it will help them be better, while we basically made no moves at all in tems of vets. I definitely think our win total will come down b/c I don't think we will push as hard this year but 55 wins is awfully low.

[ParticleMan]

The way they did this is to take the average number of wins predicted by this large panel of experts. Of course, that's going to dilute the extremes. I can't remember the last time there wasn't a 60-win team in the league. But they have us leading the league (with the Fakers) at 55 wins.

I'd pay more attention to the rankings than the actual number of wins. I think the rankings still have Detroit too high (this is the year they fall back to mediocrity), and many WC teams too low. I think the Hornets, Spurs, and Lakers are all easily capable of winning it all, along with us. In the EC there is no obvious title contender outside of us. Perhaps Cleve, if things mesh well with MoWill.

[s1ickd]

id probably predict 57. last year in the east, a lot of teams underachieved pretty badly. the sixers are better, the raptors are better, the cavs are better.... there are basicaly 5 teams capable of winning 50 games on paper. sixers, raptors, cavs, pistons, celtics, magic (adding peitrus to the starting 5 is big, imo).

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

ESPN..... .......the same clowns who, with the exception of Tim Legler, predicted that the Lakers would beat the Cs in the Finals last year? The same ESPN who took down their predictions after game 3?

[PPAW4Life]

Last year, our margin of victory was like 10 or 11 points.....we were able to rest our players down the stretch of games and more importantly, Doc Rivers was able to rest the Big 3 down the stretch of the season.

I don't know how Doc did it, but after the All-Star Break, KG only averaged 29 mpg, Pierce 32 mpg and Allen 31 mpg. (And all 3 had very high effective post AS break numbers.)

Last year, we were also very lucky that our team did not suffer a huge injury blow (sorry Pollard, Scal, you two don't count).

I don't mind us winning "only 56 games" in the regular season....I just think if we play our guys right and we win right...we'll have time to rest during the regular season and be fresh for the playoffs.

So it's possible, IMO, that we might have a little regression in the regular season, but in the playoffs, with last year's experiences, we might have an easier time in the playoffs next year.

[Spin Move]

I say 58-62 wins, if i had to pick just one number I would go with 59, without posey's leadership towards the start of the season we will lose an extra game or two, and odds are one of the big 3 misses a little more time then last year, i expext a dropoff of 5-8 wins.

[drza]

I think, barring injury, it's at least upper 60s with a legit shot at 70. As someone pointed out, last year's 66 wins was not a grind where they went all out to get there. For the most part, GPA were down around 30 mpg for the second half of the year and the team was still winning easily. I think this year's team should be better, and the young guys (who don't need to rest) will likely be carrying more of the load on a night-to-night basis. And everyone knows their roles now, plus the power-up that one gets from winning a title.

If no one gets hurt, I'll be absolutely stunned if this team wins less than 60 games.

[return2glory]

About the same time last year, most of these experts were predicting that Toronto would win the division.

[mrautobahn]

Didn't something like 9 out of 10 "experts" predict LA to win the Championship? Well... we all know how THAT turned out...

And besides... barring injury... I figure the Celtics will be better this year because they have been playing together for a year.

I believe Ray is going to have a banner season in spite of some of the posters... he will be more comfortable in the long shooter role...

And we may have a wild card or two in our rookies and POB.

And if the "good Tony" comes out this season... we should be in contention for each and every game...

[Maple Green]

59-65 on my list and looking for 18th banner

[Al-Haqq]

If you take into account the Doc was resting APG for much of the last month and they still got 66 wins then to me it makes no sense that we fall to a 55 - 27 record.

The Celtics are too good defensively and we have addressed the issue of our offense being stale when the big 3 are out with Miles, Tony playing more MPG [assuming Miles is here and gets back healthy]. We also get more athletic with our rookies and our bigs of Perk, Powe and Baby get better too.

I would love to see them start as fast as last season and get 66 or more wins because that way people can shut up about the Celtics getting old and declining.

I promise you, if the C's fall short of 62 wins haters will use that as a sign they're declining because they're already doing it now without the season having started.

[Red2]

I think this prediction is pretty accurate. the Atlantic division and the east are much tougherthis year, we don't have Posey and our stars are older. some of that will be offset by the fact that davis and powe will contribute more. It all comes down to what the new kids bring.if they meld with the team as fast as last year's team did we could be in for another monster year. I'm not counting on that but it could happen.

[Mahoney_jr]

Last year it was all about gelling and the big three had to play a lot during the first three months. This year a lot touches will go through young guys to develop them. But Doc recognized how important home court advantage is in the playoffs and will try to secure that again. So I hope we start strong at the beginning and rest the players after the all-star-break again.

Wins in the end? As much as needed (barring injuries..). If we need 65 for hc advantage, we will win 65.

[celticfanreseda]

The only thing ESPN are experts at is BS. I dont even know how they come up with this stuff. First, they predict all the offseason stuff. reports of this and reports of that. ESPN can never get their S**T right. ESPN are also the same experts who predicted the celtics will take a "few years" to get a title after the KG trade. eeggghhhh!!! wrong. Then they predicted the celtics were too weak and cant get past detroit because of their road troubles. guess what. wrong again. Then, almosty everyone on the ESPN booth picked the lakers to win the finals in 6. wrong again.

ESPN experts are useful as far as motivational tool to prove them wrong. And the cees did a great job of that. This years ESPN expert prediction...........Lakers win title with a healthy A Bynum. Let me just make one point clear. The fakers cant play defense. they dont play defense. They have a triangle offense. no scheme on defense and yet these so called experts can't even point that out.