Danny is Human: A Possibly Colossal Mistake

[elrod enchilada]

I have been singing the praises of Danny Ainge since he was hired, and I would not trade him for any other GM in the game.

That being said, I fear he has made a mistake, and one that could cost us dearly.

Danny signed Patrick O'Bryant to a 2 year deal. POB is an unrestricted free agent in 2010. Because he will have spent only 2 years witht he Cs, the Cs do NOT have Bird rights. We will limited to giving him the MLE level salary unless we are under the cap. It is unlikely we will be under the cap. And if we did gyrations to get under the cap I'd like to use the capspace to land a big ticket FA, not to retain POB.

This is a problem because if POB establishes himself as an NBA caliber player, not to mention a starter, he is going to be in great demand in 2010. Some pretty pathetic figures have gotten pretty big contracts who do not have POB's talent. In 2010 POB will turn 24. Maybe he will suck and this will be a moot point, but everything I have seen suggests to me he is going to have a place in this league for the next 10-12 years. There are a lot of big men in this league who have nowhere near POB's talent. And there is a chance he could become a very good player.

It would have been nice if Danny had signed POB to a 3 year deal. Then all would be right in the world. In 2011 we would hold Bird rights. POB might have wanted a slightly larger deal to get a 3 year commitment but it would have been worth it. This may be a case of being penny wise and pound foolish.

I am surprised that someone with Danny's gray matter would drop the ball on something this elementary.

[celticfan42487]

And something this elementary is something that Patrick's agent knowes. The Celtics barring injuries are guaranteed to be in contention this year and next. Another guarantee, many teams will have big capspace in 2010 and a couple of those teams are not going to land a big fish.

So you sign on for the min because no one thinks you have heart or a baseketball mind, you do this for 2 years with a highly prestigious team that doesn't have a legit backup Center and is know for siting it starting Center often in the past dispite this. This give Patrick by far the best opportunity to show his skills in not only the regular season but the big stage, a player to emulate in Perkins, and a player to learn everything from in KG.

Patrick's agent is a smart guy, O'Bryant probuly feels the NBA undervalues him and isn't happy with having to settle for the league min with only 3 years experience [hell of a price cut]. But there is no denying he found the best opportunity for a min pay salary opportunity.

No one can tell for sure but with Patrick's history I wouldn't want to be the team with the big wallets who missed out on a big star and will have to take a flyer with O'Bryant as their very good Center for the next 6 years. But O'Bryant's in a good postion financially and if he ever can make it in this league he should be able to show that the next two years in our system.

[greenbeans]

ahhhh relax my friend. . . TRADEBAIT!!!


edit: And a quick perusal of the teams contracts show we have quite a bit of tradebait that expires that summer. 6 current players actually and by that time we should have some 1sts to move again.
Ray Allen-18.4mil
Tony Allen-2.5mil
JR Giddens-957k
Paddy OB-797k
Gabe Pruitt-711k
Brian "ugh" Scalabrine-3.2mil

somewhere in there, imo, lays a kg/ray type deal.

[Bad-Thoma]

Nostrabasketballdamus says he who borrows too deeply from the well of potential may end by paying the interest of mediocraty. I don't even know what that **** means, I said "Speak english you sagey bastard!", but that's all I can get out of him.

[Rocky5000]

Well it's only been 1 preseason game and the next year is a team option so it seems Danny doesn't know if he'll want him after this season. If he does do well this year, there's probably a good possibility that we work out an extension.

[John Locke]

And by then, Ainge will have found another one. This is the benefit of having such a great talent evaluator as a GM. He finds diamonds in the rough, and puts them in the right environment. If we can develop POB, who barely played @ GS, we can take a lot of guys and develop them.

[canman1971]

Talk about overreaction. Perhaps we should get through preseason, never mind the next two years to determine this. I mean, haven't we learned our lesson yet. Tomorrow, after POB has a stat line of 1 point, 0-8 FG, 1-4 FT, 0 reb, 4 TOs, there will be a thread that says, "I can't believe Ainge signed this bum to a 2 year deal."

[Dave_From_NB]

I do agree it is a very interesting situation with just the 2 years, and I've always been puzzled by it.

With Allens contract expiring, I believe the Celtics will have some room, however I think I've always assumed it would be used to bring in another player, rather than resigning Celtics.

I get the sense that Danny is trying not to get too blocked in by long contracts at this point for players who haven't proven themselves. We've all been grumpy watching the years go by with Scal on the books, and in the summer lets face it, POB appeared to be someone of modest potential. Perhaps these short contracts are the way to keep players focused, lest we forget the disappearing act by Blount once the big money long term contract was won.

It's quite possible as well, that POB and his agent would have been agreeable for 2 years at minimum, but not 3 years at minimum. Could be the 3 was offered and not accepted.

[cloverleaf]

Danny's an executive. He has to make good decisions with imperfect information. When further information comes available it doesn't mean a best decision given the limited information has become a bad decision. (And we still have limited information!)

[Havlicek17]

Chill out. It's still too early to tell how well POB will play over the course of the season, injuries, etc. We've got POB for the year, if he stays healthy and plays well, it's all good. If he doesn't then we're not stuck with 3 years and limited roster spots.

Danny signed Perk to an extension before his contract was up. If POB plays well this year, I expect Danny to try and redo his deal as well. Having the second year be so low, gives us some leverage to negotiate. Winning a championship never hurts either.

[3pt %]

Nostrabasketballdamus says he who borrows too deeply from the well of potential may end by paying the interest of mediocraty. I don't even know what that **** means, I said "Speak english you sagey bastard!", but that's all I can get out of him.

thats some funny **** right there

[Maple Green]

Some are thinking POB is Posey II in the future asking for Heaven and Earth.

[Ortho Stice]

After his better-than-expected two preseason games I think Danny made a grievous error in not signing him to a six year deal to have him help Rondo and Skywalker carry the Big Three's torch, eventually surpassing the Bulls' dynasty, and perhaps scraping the edge of Bill Russell's dynasty. Heinsohn said one of O'Bryant's blocks reminded him of Russell's. Coincidence?

[Pogue Mahone]

A general reply to the thread but ...

It's quite possible as well, that POB and his agent would have been agreeable for 2 years at minimum, but not 3 years at minimum. Could be the 3 was offered and not accepted.

... see #2. The only way they would be able to offer three years is if they used part of the MLE. As they were still attempting to resign James Posey, I don't think it was an option they were willing to attempt. It was reported that Ainge had offered the full MLE to Posey. Posey didn't sign with New Orleans until much later. O'Bryant allegedly agreed to the deal (via multiple sources) on 12 Jul 08. Their was still talk on 15 Jul 08 and 16 Jul 08 about Posey wanting the full MLE at 4 Yrs. O'Bryant was signed for close to a week before New Orleans inked Posey.

A few points:

• 1. I never explicitly read that the Celtics used their Bi-Annual Exemption on Patrick O'Bryant (though, that is the assumption.)
  
  a. Boston Globe's Marc Spears reported $3M/2 Yrs on 12 Jul 08.
  b. Hoopshype.com reports $3.12M/2 Yrs.
  c. Patricia Bender reports $2M/2 Yrs on 16 Jul 08 on her site.
  d. Salarycontract.info shows an assumed $1.65277M/2 Yrs on 12 Jul 08 (ie. via the Minimum Player Salary Exception.) They also report the remaining portion of the MLE at $2.855M and the full BAE.
  e. Shamsports.com shows $1.65277M/2 Yrs on 12 Jul 08 (ie. Again, via the Minimum Player Salary Exception.)
  f. RealGM.com designates O'Bryant as a minimum-salaried player, that the Celtics still retain their BAE and that they have no MLE remaining (Some or all of this is incorrect, FWIW.)
  g. Frank Marousek's most excellent site reported $3M/2 Yrs on 12 Jul 08.
  h. ESPN reported $1.7M/2 Yrs (approximately the Minimum Player Salary Exception.)
  
  
• 2. From the information above, I think we can safely assume that he was signed with either the Minimum Player Salary Exception or a partial Bi-Annual Exception and that the Celtics did NOT dip into any of their MLE monies (as they were still attempting to re-sign James Posey.) In either event, the maximum available contract that can be tendered with either exception is --- 2 years#.
  
  # If the Celtics had dipped into their MLE for the first year, they could have technically given two additional years at minimum salary.
  
  
• 3. Assuming O'Bryant even moderately breaks out, it is not in his best interest to accept a contract under the Early Bird provision of the NBA Salary Cap.
  
  More likely, he would sign a one year contract with Boston so he could have full Bird Rights at the conclusion of his third year with the team. Sure, hypothetically speaking, another team that was under the salary cap could make a very large offer to O'Bryant but, to be honest, I don't see it happening because of the timing. The summer of 2010 is the Pierce/Wade/James free agent class. Outside of those superstar scorers, the class is pretty deep, in general.

[TheSheriff]

POB would never accepted a three year deal for the min. He probably didn't even want to take a one year deal at the min, let alone a two year deal, but was forced to due to the lack of demand. There is one reason to sign a vet min deal longer than 2 years.

Think about from O'Bryant's side: If he plays well he gets paid after 2 years (and O'Bryant is probably certain he will play well) . If he sucks for 2 years some one else will take a flier on him because he is seven feet tall. There is no advantage for O'Bryant in adding that extra year to his deal.

Danny might be a good talent evaluator, but he cannot make a player sign deal that one sided.

[billfromBoston]

I have been singing the praises of Danny Ainge since he was hired, and I would not trade him for any other GM in the game.

That being said, I fear he has made a mistake, and one that could cost us dearly.

Danny signed Patrick O'Bryant to a 2 year deal. POB is an unrestricted free agent in 2010. Because he will have spent only 2 years witht he Cs, the Cs do NOT have Bird rights. We will limited to giving him the MLE level salary unless we are under the cap. It is unlikely we will be under the cap. And if we did gyrations to get under the cap I'd like to use the capspace to land a big ticket FA, not to retain POB.

This is a problem because if POB establishes himself as an NBA caliber player, not to mention a starter, he is going to be in great demand in 2010. Some pretty pathetic figures have gotten pretty big contracts who do not have POB's talent. In 2010 POB will turn 24. Maybe he will suck and this will be a moot point, but everything I have seen suggests to me he is going to have a place in this league for the next 10-12 years. There are a lot of big men in this league who have nowhere near POB's talent. And there is a chance he could become a very good player.

It would have been nice if Danny had signed POB to a 3 year deal. Then all would be right in the world. In 2011 we would hold Bird rights. POB might have wanted a slightly larger deal to get a 3 year commitment but it would have been worth it. This may be a case of being penny wise and pound foolish.

I am surprised that someone with Danny's gray matter would drop the ball on something this elementary.

...jumping the gun a bit here Elrod?

Personally, I think POB will play himself into a nice contract over the next couple of seasons, but, as of this moment, I wouldn't want the Celtics to be the team that pays him that contract....POB, in my opinion, is motivated by the lure of that pay-day, not for any passion or love of what he does...once he gets his money, I wouldn't be surprised if his attention to detail and overall effort ebbs and flows on a whim based on when POB is "into it" or not...

...could be wrong of course, but there is a reason he was one of only 2 1st rounders ever to be cut after the first 2 years of their rookie deal, and it wasn't because Nellie mistreated him-not entirely...POB has had motivation and maturity issues since day one and while some of those issues may be solved by growing up, some of them are inevitably inherent in his character...

I don't think POB loves to play basketball, I think he was compelled to play because of his size. While his skill level is very high for a big, if he isn't going to focus in on every small detail of his job over the length of his career, he will be like the dozens of other players with big contracts who lack the ability to execute at a championship level because they don't care enough to do the "little things."

So, lets see how this kid handles himself over the next two years before we lament not being able to give him a billion dollars when he's a free agent. Again, I think he'll be statistically productive so I wouldn't use that as my indicator. Pay attention to his interviews and listen closely to how teammates and coaches talk about his approach to the game....

We had another talented 7 footer who looked highly motivated at one point in the past. He worked his ass off and was very productive. Fans of this team screamed from the high heavens to re-sign him at any cost and Ainge obligued, to his and our eventual regret...his name, Mark Blount...

[GuyClinch]

Did it ever occur to you Elrod Ainge is more interested in winning championships now then making sure we hold onto Mark Blount - I mean Patrick O'Byrant.. ? The time is now. Ainge did the right thing - he is trying to keep money available for the free agent class and win championships in the meantime.

[Pass277]

It is ridiculous to say it will be a huge mistake for two reasons.
1) We have the guy for 2 years at the lowest cost! He can help us win another championship.
2) He has been solid in two preseason games. I think you have jumped the gun a little bit here.

[elrod enchilada]

Slow down, guys. I did not say POB was going to be a star nor did I say Danny would necessarily want to sign him to a big deal.

What I said was that it would have been great to get him for a third year. If that meant we needed to pay him $400,000 more for the first two years that would be a price I would be willing to pay to tack a third season on to the deal. That is small potatoes cash wise for an NBA team.

If we had him for a third year it would give us many more options than we will have otherwise, especially if he proves to be a legitimate NBA player. Based on two exhibition games, I think he has an NBA career, maybe a decent one. If he does, he will become a very rich man. The league is filled with big men with less length, less talent and no more heart than POB.

Now I share BfB's concerns about POB's attitude and love for the game. But if we had the third year on the deal his trade value would increase considerably because teams we might trade him to would get Bird rights.

As it is, if POB becomes a decent big, he will command greater then the MLE in 2010 and we will lose him, or we will have to contort our payroll in unpleasant ways to get him. (If we are going to contort our roster in 2010, I'd rather end up with Lebron or Wade.) There are probably going to be a lot of teams under the cap in 2010 and only a couple will get James or Wade, so that will leave a number of teams with money burning a hole in their pocket. A 24 year old 7 footer with plus athletic ability and two years of education in Boston defense will get likely get an offer the Cs will not be able to match.

Now POB could prove Nellie correct and lay an egg. Then this is moot. But the cost of covering our ass was less than $2 million, max. That seems like a pretty safe bet to me.

elrod

[floyd]

Could be worse. He could have traded for a banged up center with a huge, long term contract. Oh wait ...