RealGM

Let me just say how exciting it is to say that we are the defending NBA champions.
I will never forget that feeling downtown in the FOURS sportsbar for game six during the fourth quarter when we knew it was over. Then the celebration in the streets after. CHILLS!!!

You are Doc Rivers. If you were to game out a projected mpg for each team member during the regular season( NOT PLAYOFFS) for the developement of this team, how would you divy them up. Granted this is an hypothetical (barring trades, serious injuries, and a return of PJ Brown after the All-Star game) plan for the realgm'ers. I don't post here often but I read posts here for my daily hoops fix because there are many intelligent posters here like CELTICBLOG.COM whose opinions and ideas I respect. Feel free to blast me or slightly adjust the mpg as you see it coach.

5 positions x 48mpg = 240 mpg
( even though overlapping fractions of minutes usually set the team mpg around 241.1-242.7 mpg)

MPG
24----Perk
32----KG
32----PP
30----Ray
32----Rondo
---------------------
150mpg

12----O'Bryant (C)
14----Powe (PF,C)
10----Walker (SF)
16----T. Allen (SG,SF)
14----House (PG,SG)
---------------------
66mpg

7----Davis (PF,C)
2----Scalabrine (SF,PF,C)
4----Giddens (SG,SF) NBDL'er
7----Pruitt (PG,SG) NBDL'er maybe
4----Cassell (PG,SG)
----------------------
24mpg

150mpg + 66mpg + 24mpg = 240mpg

Can't wait to see that 2008 NBA championship banner raised!

Long live Red...

This is what I'd try to do in an average game. If it's a blowout, Walker will play some and the starters less.
Depending on how Baby and O'Bryant do, they could cut into Powe's minutes.
Starters
Rondo 32 (+2 mpg from last season)
Ray 30 (-6 mpg from last season)
Pierce 30 (-6 mpg from last season)
KG 30 (-3 mpg from last season)
Perkins 26 (+1 mpg from last season)

Bench
Tony 22 (+4 mpg from last season)
House 18 (-1 mpg from last season)
Pruitt 12
Powe 22 (+8 mpg from last season)
O'Bryant 8
Davis 10 (-4 mpg from last season)
Walker DNP-CD

INACTIVE
Scal
Giddens (D-league)
Cassell

I believe your minute analysis is flawed. The total of everyones mpg won't add up to 240, because many of the players don't play every game and when they don't play a game, that game doesn't count against their MPG. For example, Walker might average 10 minutes per game, but I believe he'll be DNP-CD for many games. So he might average 10 mpg for the 20 games he plays for a total of 200 minutes, not 800 minutes.

If my math is correct, the mpg for the Celtics players last year totalled 326.1 Scal was 10.7 for the 48 games he played.

KG is the only starter I think you've got right, the other starters are low.

1'st tier of subs I believe Walker is too high, the rest are too low by up to 5 minutes each.

3'rd tier of subs is very low, those guys will have a ton of DNP's, but when they play (injuries and blowouts), the time the have on the court will be much higher. Davis, Scal, Pruitt, Sam are at least 5 minutes low, although Scal and Sam (and Giddens) will have lots of DNP's.

C Perkins 27 MPG 75 games
PF Garnett 32 MPG 75 games
SF Pierce 36 MPG 80 games
SG R.Allen 32 MPG 70+ games
PG Rondo 34 MPG 75+ games
SG-SF T.Allen 25 MPG 75 games
PF Powe 20 MPG 75+ games
G House 17 MPG 75+ games
C Davis 15 MPG 70+ games
Walker 15 MPG 50+ games
Giddens 12 MPG 40+ games
O'Bryant 8 MPG 65 games
Pruitt 12 MPG 50 games
Scalibrine 8 MPG 35 games
Cassell 15 MPG 30 games



Keep in mind guys will miss games which means guys will average more minutes then are truely availible on a game to game basis

I believe mpg is an overrated and unnecessary metric the way pitch counts are in baseball. Base it more on how the player is doing within the game and overall (the big picture) rather than micromanaging it. The more science and math get involved in sports, the less interesting and exciting it becomes...

Dave_From_NB wrote:I believe your minute analysis is flawed. The total of everyones mpg won't add up to 240, because many of the players don't play every game and when they don't play a game, that game doesn't count against their MPG. For example, Walker might average 10 minutes per game, but I believe he'll be DNP-CD for many games. So he might average 10 mpg for the 20 games he plays for a total of 200 minutes, not 800 minutes.

If my math is correct, the mpg for the Celtics players last year totalled 326.1 Scal was 10.7 for the 48 games he played.

KG is the only starter I think you've got right, the other starters are low.

1'st tier of subs I believe Walker is too high, the rest are too low by up to 5 minutes each.

3'rd tier of subs is very low, those guys will have a ton of DNP's, but when they play (injuries and blowouts), the time the have on the court will be much higher. Davis, Scal, Pruitt, Sam are at least 5 minutes low, although Scal and Sam (and Giddens) will have lots of DNP's.

My analysis is completely flawed and thanks for pointing that out. Didn't realize DNP don't enter into the averages.

Still would like to see what realgm'ers project.

Before the all star game I would think something like this
about 30MPG for the big 3
about 35MPG for Rondo
keep perk at 25

Powe, Tony and House should get the most minutes off the bench.

The rest will get minutes depending on matchups while keeping Scal, Giddens (doubt he is ready) and Sam on the inactive list unless there is an injury.

around (could be before) the all-star someone might have to be cut/released for a new signing, it will have to depend on performance

I hope that those end up being the starters mins. Last year it wasn't that much of an issue because none of the starters had played a full season the year before nor had they played in the post season, now they have played the most games and mins in a postseason ever.

I would hope that on those nights when it looks like it is over in the first half Doc turns to his bench and they are able to get the job done.

Because of the question marks around this team's pg play limiting Ray Allen's mins will be the hardest for Doc. He has it set up were he has a lot of options in the backcourt capable of playing big mins but outside of Rondo they all have question marks handling the ball besides Ray. In a wierd way Pruitt's ability at the point will dicate Ray's ability to sit at the SG spot. I don't think Eddie will have as big a role as he had early last season but far more consistent than it was at the end of the season.

Overall I think Tony is the guy off the bench who ends up getting over 20 mpg. Whether Leon can get over 20 will depend on how effective he and KG are together and whether or not he can absord some of the mins at the SF spot behind Pierce who is the one starter I think will stay at 35-36 mpg no matter what.

The Center spot is the one spot with a lot of variables. Whether or not Perk can push his mpg closer to 30 and stay healthy. A healthy and effecitve Perk likely makes O'Bryant the 3rd center with Doc probably favoring a 2nd unit of Pruitt/House/Allen/Powe/Davis who all need to be guarded and no team actually has two centers and two PF's worth a damn anyhow and he could swap in Cassell for Pruitt in that lineup on any given night. If Perk struggles with injury or foul trouble I would expect to see POB with the first unit as he has looked good in that role.

Reguardless of the minutes per game, this team will be stronger this year. The rotation is better which will help keep our starters fresh. We can actually play the bench a little more and still win games with the improvement of House, Tony, Powe, Davis, and Pruitt, along with Cassell, POB, Scal, and Walker filling in where needed.

Higher MPG:



or



?

The eight players from last year who had positive NET PER's were the starters,
plus Tony Allen, Eddie House and Leon Powe.

So, those are the 8 men who outplayed their opposition over 82 games.

Anyone else is a drain, a negative (Big Baby, folks);

whose time you try to minimize.

The wildcards are Patrick O'Bryant, and the absolute need to develop him during the season so he might be able to contribute in the playoffs,

and Gabe Pruitt, as another options when the guards ahead of him are off
(Pruitt adds good D but his shot is ???).

Ray and Paul played 38 mpg last year, I really think they want to bring that down to 33-35;
whereas KG, who played 33 mpg last year, could actually play more this year (33-35 mpg).

Assuming everyone shows up and is healthy (minutes go way up when someone is out):

Center Perkins 24 / O'Bryant 18 / Garnett 6

PF Garnett 27 / Powe 17 / Davis 4

SF Pierce 33 / Tony Allen 15

SG Ray Allen 33 / Tony Allen 5 / Gabe Pruitt 10

PG Rajon Rondo 30 / Eddie House 18

That's an 11 man rotation.
Giddens or Walker will probably be active on any given night, and in blowouts, will probably see 5 minutes. But that is not normal rotation minutes, even if one of the two is the 12 active player.

The net PER is one thing to look at except Perk didn't have a postive net PER. That is because he plays center and this team's offense and defense asks the center to sacrifice personal numbers for the team. Baby will start the season as the primary back up at the 5 spot and Leon will get all the mins behind KG. The only question marks are how long can Perk and Baby stay on the floor and whether or not Leon and KG can be effective together. What those 4 can't handle will go to POB.

Pruitt's mins will be behind Rondo not at the off guard spot. Allen will get the bulk of the mins behind Pierce and Ray and the rest will go to House who will get mins at the point based on how effective Pruitt is.

That is a 10 man rotation with POB and Cassell being the two other actives to start the year and Giddens, Walker, and Scal in street clothes. I would look for Walker (the only traditional SF behind Pierce) to be added to the actives if and when Pruitt either succeeds or fails at the point.

I think the Center is the spot in play. We really do not have a good backup option there. Powe got dominated when he was playing center. He dominated when he was playing PF. So it would be great if he weren't the backup center.

KG moved to center as a backup. It would be great if he didn't have to.

Baby was actually pretty good at center. His net PER was -.8 compared to Powe's -4.7. I think there was some bias at play. KG would take the tough match ups.

I think the wild card is POB. I think as the preseason moved on and the player seriousness and scouting increased, it seems his play appeared weaker. I think he's a project and about a year away.

I think early on, Doc is going to let Powe, Baby and POB audition for the backup C minutes.

Celtics_85 wrote:Reguardless of the minutes per game, this team will be stronger this year. The rotation is better which will help keep our starters fresh. We can actually play the bench a little more and still win games with the improvement of House, Tony, Powe, Davis, and Pruitt, along with Cassell, POB, Scal, and Walker filling in where needed.

Nah, our rotation was stronger last year. Losing Posey especially kills our SF rotation. I have no idea who will stop bigger opposing SFs off the bench. Tony Allen isn't the answer, and way too early to have faith in Walker.

Not to mention last year we were exceptionally healthy all season. Fingers crossed we'll get that lucky again.

I disagree as far as Posey goes. I think we can be better defensively. Not that Posey wasn't great but he was a help defender not a one on one on the ball defender. Pierce was on the ball and Posey would help from the PF spot were he played most of his mins. Now with Tony on the ball Pierce can fall into that help defender role and I think if Leon has head screwed on he can do a lot of the dirty work as far as taking charges and getting under opponents skin. I think that we will also rebound better. The big thing that we need to find is someone to make those dagger 3's that Posey was just unconscious about especially late in the game.

I think we can only be better at PG and C all around from the starters to the backups.

sully00 wrote:The net PER is one thing to look at except Perk didn't have a postive net PER.

True, although young Kendrick had a positive NET PER for the 26 Playoff games.

So, although I knew Kendrick had a negative NET PER for the 82 game regular season, I didn't correct myself since he effectively matured to be one of six Celtics (KG, Pierce, Ray, Rondo, and Eddie House) who had positive NET PER's over 26 playoff games.

Perkins also had the 4th best +/- of any Celtic for 26 playoff games;
behind KG, Ray Allen, and Eddie House;
and ahead of Paul Pierce.

The more significant thing, and I think tragic,
is today's announcement in the Boston Herald that Doc Rivers has made
Big Baby the second sting center, and O'bryant is playing with the third string crew.

The talent difference between O'Bryant and Davis is so great
(Davis' ceiling is low, and he was made mince meat during the regular season or playoffs when played at center)

that I think any time given to Davis over O'Bryant is just wasting the arrival of a soon to be productive NBA center. I'm not saying that O'Bryant is the next Tyson Chandler, but it wasn't until Chandler's 6th season (in New Orleans) that he showed what he was capable of.

O'Bryant is only 22, so I think Doc should really work with this kid. O'Bryant will be much better than Davis, and with optimum handling, I think can play better right now. In 2 years, when O'Bryant adds a little muscle on his 6' 11" frame (compared to Davis 6' 7.75 inch frame, with short arms, to boot) O'Bryant will be able to dominate Davis on the low block with that right handed turn around jump shot over his left shoulder (that Clifford Ray taught O'Bryant this summer). O'Bryant just has to learn to not let defenders push him out of position when he sets up to take that shot, but half of that is mental, and the other half is being strong enough to resist being pushed out of position.

Almost every minute Davis played was at center.

Davis may have his issues but a lack of talent isn't one of them, he and O'Bryant played in college at the same time and are with in a year in age. O'Bryant has had his chance head to head against Davis and that will continue it will play out on the court. But POB's problems are the same that he came into the league with and nothing has changed. There are a lot of things you can teach but heart isn't one of them that dude needs to go see the wizard.

clipper fan here. please play leon powe 25 mins a game, i love that guy.