some thoughts on the Cs gping forward

[elrod enchilada]

http://www.realgm.com/src_feature_piece ... _dilemmas/

I hope you enjoy.

[MaxwellSmart]

Terrific article...a little sobering---But, Danny will have something up his sleeve that NONE of us are thinking about....He likes to think out of the box, and I'm sure he won't settle for another slow sink into oblivion for this team.

[lakeshow248]

Sounds bleak, Jason Williams, Jared Jefferies or Jerome James I think my idea of stacking Powe and Baby on top of each other will provide better results in the middle.

[ryaningf]

Hey Bob,

As long as we either a. find a point guard for the 2nd team or b. add a veteran at the backup 5, we'll be fine. Danny and Doc know that too and are probably trying to do both as I write this. It's a long season with peaks and valleys...and it seems like entire message board community is ready to jump off a bridge when we hit the first valley of the season. Let's all take a deep breath and remember 'chips aren't won in December.

[Bad-Thoma]

Sounds bleak, Jason Williams, Jared Jefferies or Jerome James I think my idea of stacking Powe and Baby on top of each other will provide better results in the middle.

Yeah, we're 27-4, things are looking pretty bleak. I don't know how Celtic's nation sleeps at night worrying about it.

[Jammer]

Elrod:

Nice stuff.

Your comments virtually match my rantings of the past few weeks.

Before reading your article,
I posted a NET PER thread thru the Warriors game,
and my editorial comments there indicate that we agree on most everything.

By the way, Jason Williams is a free agent, able to be signed by anyone,
if the Celtics had a roster spot (Doc offered him a minimum contract in July).

When Jason Williams retired September 27, the Clippers had two choices.
Keep paying him, keep him on the roster and cap, OR
let him retire, don't send any checks, gain a roster spot.

By deciding to not pay him, and gain a roster spot,
the Clippers allowed Jason Williams to retire, and become a free agent
(who theoretically they could still sign and trade, but
Williams will likely just take a vet minimum contract someplace).

Ainge's dilemma with his "young guys" is:
Who of Giddens, Walker, Pruitt and O'Bryant might be an NBA rotation player? and who won't?
Until Ainge answers those questions, Ainge won't know who to trade,
but to win this year or next,
the question might become
"Who can contribute this year or next?"

Rondo and Perk have pretty much covered Pierce and Garnett's declines.

I disagree about Garnett's standing last year, factoring in defense,
he was definately top 4, and arguably top 4 last year.

This year, I agree he is 10-12.
Ray has been playing much better than last year factoring in defense,
I agree, though, that Pierce slipped from 10th last year to perhaps 36th this year.

Tony has been the disappointment in terms of dependability.
Every game is a crap shoot.

Powe was always just a 6' 6" low post player who really didn't
shoot or dribble that well. He's been scouted, and the premium teams
know how to defend Powe (length like Gasol, IIgauskas, Varejo, Bynum).

Ditto for Big Baby, who has less of an offensive game than Powe,
and who has been equally well scouted.

House is a shooter who is useless if he isn't hitting.

[elrod enchilada]

Good comments, Jammer. I should clarify that I a not a "sky is falling" guy. I love this team and think it is a worthy champion. But the chances to get a title are going to be more difficult than they were last year. The other teams amog the four or five best teams in the league are a lot better than they were last year. A lot rides on Rondo and Perkins continuing to improve, expecially Rondo.

Danny (and Wyc) has to be thinking a couple of moves ahead. A lot of Danny's job is balancing the short-term needs with his long-term vision. This piece was simply trying to lay out that sort of thought process, as I see it.

I also am intrigued by our kids like Walker, Pruitt, POB and Giddens. I hope one or two of them prove to be rotation players, maybe even starters. But I think none of them will be playing much this year, barring injuries to the guys in front of them.

[Fencer reregistered]

I think you're underrating the Big Three. Garnett has never been an elite post player (at either end of the floor), and he plays in the post, so it's natural to not realize that he's an elite player. But he's a very good player anywhere on the floor, and he deploys that versatility to make it seem like his team has a 6-to-5 man advantage.

Neither Pierce nor Garnett is a guy who can bring it all night, every night, at both ends of the floor, for 40-42 minutes per game. But there's little evidence that they can't do what they did last year in the postseason.

Ray CAN bring it all night, every night, both ends. And that's a good thing, because he's a non-liability defender only because of that effort.

As for Rondo's and Perk's jumpers -- don't totally rule out them starting to fall this season.

I agree that letting Posey walk was a big gamble, and the evidence to date is unfavorable as to how it turns out this season.

[Datruth345]

there are 30 to 40 guys in the league playing better than paul pierce and ray allen this season?

i find that extremely hard to believe

otherwise a good read

[return2glory]

Great article. Sounds similar to some of my points in my tread, " The windown has closed."

[elrod enchilada]

Garnett has never been a go-to unstoppable offensive force, but he has diminished considerably. It is not just that he scores less; it is that he gets to the line at about 50 percent the rate he did the last five years of his career before he got to Boston. That mean he is not creating havoc for the other team as much as he is shooting jumpers.

Likewise, he led the league in rebounding for the four years before he got to Boston. His rebounding this year any way you slice it has fallen off dramatically.

KG was still a top 5 player last year. This year he is a top 10-12 player. His stature is due to his tremendous defensive play.

It is no insult to call Ray ot Pasul a top 30-40 player. Go down the list of other wings in the league. If they are top 10-20 players, there would only be four-six wings in the league their equals or superiors. If theye are top 30-40, one would expect to have 12-16 wings their equal or superior.

Here is a list of NBA wings this season:

James
Wade
Roy
Bryant
Carter
Terry
Granger
Johnson
Butler
Ginobili
Lewis
Kirilenko
McGrady
Wallace
Stuckey
Durant

These guys all rate ahead of our wings in PER, not that that settles the matter by any means.

I will say this, when Paul is on his game I think he is in the top 20 in the league. He has not been on his game that much this season.

[Jammer]

Elrod, there are a lot of players on bad teams with high PER's that don't play defense.

The Celtics score less than a lot of teams, but win by a combination of offense and defense.

NET PER's (factors in the performance of the man you are guarding)
show Ray and Rondo are having great years,
but also the importance of having one of the dominant players in the NBA.

Small Forwards ************************ Shooting Guards ************* Point Guards
26.0 LeBron James ***************** 21.2 Dwayne Wade ********** 18.0 Chris Paul
12.5 Brandon Roy ******************* 13.4 Kobe Bryant ************ 10.4 Tony Parker
11.7 Andrei Kirilenko ************** 09.5 Ray Allen **************** 09.4 Devin Harris
09.7 Danny Granger *************** 08.2 Jason Terry ************** 08.6 Kurt Hinrich
06.2 Francesco Garcia ************ 07.4 Joe Johnson ************* 08.5 Chauncey Billups
06.1 Caron Butler ***************** 07.2 Manu Ginoboli *********** 07.4 Ramon Sessions
05.4 Michael Redd **************** 07.0 Vince Carter ************* 07.1 Rajon Rondo
05.2 Carmello Anthony *********** 06.6 Tracy McGrady ********** 06.7 Mike Bibby
04.5 Rudy Gay ******************** 05.4 Richard Hamilton ******** 05.0 Jameer Nelson
04.5 Trevor Ariza **************** 04.6 Rudy Fernandez ********* 04.9 Steve Nash
04.4 Ron Artest ****************** 04.2 Ben Gordon *************** 03.4 Jose Calderon
04.3 Gerald Wallace
03.8 Paul Pierce
03.7 Marvin Williams
03.3 Andre Iguadala
03.1 Josh Howard

Garnett's drop from 2nd best NET PER (+16) to 11th (+11.0) this year, and
Pierce's plummet from 10th best last year (+10.2) to 54th (+3.8) this year,
which is a combined drop of -11.4
have been offset by:

Ray's jump from +5.9 last year to +9.5 this year,
Rondo's jump from +1.4 last year to 7.1 this year,
and Perk's improvement from -1.6 to +0.7 this year.
Rajon, Ray and Perk's net improvement of +11.3 offsets Pierce/Garnett's drop of -11.4

Tony, now that he's healthy, is actually better than last year,
and covers Eddie's slight drop off (mostly do to shooting %);
but Powe and Davis have been scouted and don't get the open shots
under the basket that they were getting last year;
they are guarded now.

In addition, Posey helped to stretch the floor to
get Powe and Davis those open looks last year;
whereas this year, Brian Scalabrine is a big dropoff from James Posey,
so Scal is hardly ever in the game.

So in terms of the bench, Powe and Davis are having a rougher time than last year,
and I don't think that that is going to change.

There will possibly be two NBA sweepstakes in early 2009.
If Joe Smith and Steph Marbury are bought out,
there will be a line of teams to sign them,
and hopefully the Celtics will win one of those sweepstakes.

[elrod enchilada]

How is Net PER computed? Does someone actually tabulate the matchups to know who is guarding who, or is it simply taking the PERs of players at similar positions and assuming they are guarding each other?

[Jammer]

How is Net PER computed? Does someone actually tabulate the matchups to know who is guarding who, or is it simply taking the PERs of players at similar positions and assuming they are guarding each other?

Why don't you ask Roland Beech over at www.82games.com

He has returned my e-mails in the past when I have asked him questions.

I don't think they take into account switches,
but they factor in what your position is at any given time
(this means if someone is playing PG on offense but guarding the opposing SG on defense),
it's factored in.

[Pogue Mahone]

Nice article, Elrod.

For me, I think that the wisest move is to trade a package that starts with Ray Allen. For instance, consider the following ménage à trois between the Celtics, Warriors and Minnesota:

Celtics
Trade Ray Allen, Tony Allen and Glen Davis
Receive Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal and Corey Maggette

Warriors
Trade Corey Maggette
Receive Tony Allen, Jason Collins and 2009 1st RD Pick (#30, via Minnesota)

Wolves
Trade Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, Jason Collins and 2009 1st RD Pick (#30)
Receive Ray Allen and Glen Davis

The Skinny

BOS: Acquire low usage player to run with the starters. He is a better defender and rebounder than Ray Allen, with the size to cover Pierce's man and to give Pierce a bit of a break defensively against bigger SFs. Miller is also a much better dribbler and playmaker for teammates than either of the Allens. Acquire a 2nd unit scorer with the size/quickness to cover both SG and SF. With Pierce and Maggette, there will always be a foul-drawer on the floor. Over the summer, the Celtics were reportedly in pursuit of Maggette with the MLE. Rivers has a history with both Miller and Maggette. Brian Cardinal is simply a salary-placeholder going into next season. If you combine Scalabrine and Cardinal in the off-season, that is ~$10.15M in expiring contracts. Those two players, combined with some of the low-priced, moderate upside kiddies on the roster, should be a good start towards further strengthening the team via a salary dump trade (in anticipation of 2010 FA market.)

Though I would look to keep him and extend him at ~$9M per, Miller will also be an expiring contract next season. That would bring our total expirings to $20M (Cardinal, Scalabrine and Miller.) Which team, in anticipation of the 2010 FA class (and/or in this economy) wants to shed $20M+ from payroll? The market is ripe for exploitation but if we use Ray next off-season as the major expiring piece, what is coming back has to be greater than or equal to Ray Allen. Mike Miller and Corey Maggette, combined, are right now better than Ray Allen. In fact, Mike Miller, in this role, on this team, is likely a better fit than Ray Allen. I am not saying better player ... better fit ( I do think Miller is the better player, btw. Ray is easily the better scorer but his game is quite empty outside of that.)

GSW: Apparently the fickle Don Nelson has usurped the player personnel decision-making of Chris Mullin. Which is unfortunate, really, because I think Mullin has been a bit underrated in his ability to find quality players. Anyways, reports are that Nelson is unhappy with Maggette and this would give Golden State a pretty good return on a six month investment.

MIN: Minnesota is about to face a serious roster crunch in the off-season (assuming they keep all four 1st RD picks and their high 2nd RD pick.) Furthermore, McHale needs a player who can absorb a high amount of possessions at above average efficiencies. Currently, he is not getting that from Randy Foye or Rashard McCants. By adding Allen (and his ability to absorb possessions without turning the ball over), the rest of his young players should become more efficient (in theory.) Sure, Minnesota's defense sucks but the offense has been putrid. Mike Miller is a very nice player but he doesn't use a ton of possessions.

[Jammer]

Pogue:

Why wouldn't the Celtics substitute Paul Pierce
for Ray Allen in your proposed trade?

It would seem to make more sense to me if Pierce were sent to Minnesota with Big Baby,
the Celtics would still gain Mike Miller, Corey Maggette and Brian Cardinal ??

-- Jammer

[Havlicek17]

Nice article Elrod. I just think you are a year or two too early.

Yes, the big three will decline with age but let's not try predicting the end of the run before the playoffs even start. A few tweaks to the bench and some real motivation for the big three (playoffs) and we will be tough for anyone to beat.

Oh yea, Ray, PP, KG aren't going anywhere. Their time is now, this is their legacy.

[Pogue Mahone]

Pogue:

Why wouldn't the Celtics substitute Paul Pierce
for Ray Allen in your proposed trade?

It would seem to make more sense to me if Pierce were sent to Minnesota with Big Baby,
the Celtics would still gain Mike Miller, Corey Maggette and Brian Cardinal ??

-- Jammer

Sure, you could do that but I wouldn't.

1. Pierce creates more offense than Ray on less touches.
2. Pierce is a better defender. He is often guarding the more difficult of wing match-ups.
3. Pierce's "drop-off" is from playing more off-the-ball. I don't even look at it as a real drop-off, to be honest. Pierce is just applying his skills in different areas than before. Pierce is a better on-the-ball player than Ray. No contest.
4. If I am trading Pierce, I expect more in return. He is a better player than Ray and, as such, more should be coming back.
5. I am seeking the most synergistic scenarios. I believe this deal would be satisfy what needs to happen.

For example, Miller doesn't need the offense ran through him-- ever. He is a better catch-and-shoot player than Ray. It is not even a contest. Ray is a better shooter when he is putting the ball on the floor. Miller is better when shooting off the catch.

Miller has shown, from year to year, to be roughly a 16 possession per 40 MP player. Ray is traditionally a 24-25 possession per 40 player. One of the disconnects in the offense is because of Ray attempting to play too much on the ball, imo. That is making other players (namely Pierce, Garnett and Rondo) have such a great fluctuation of performance (as far as efficiencies are concerned), imo.

Now, as far as "best player in a deal" is concerned, Miller and Maggette, combined, fill all the roles that Ray has filled for us on the offensive end. Combined, their salaries are less in AAV. As constituted, Ray can play a maximum of 48 minutes per game but usually plays in the 34-38 range. Assuming Pierce is playing 36 MP, you are getting 60 MP of what Ray does (and likely better in some instances) with Miller and Maggette.

Now, I doubt McHale would go for it but if he would, I would jump all over this deal like white on rice.

[cisco]

Pogue:

Why wouldn't the Celtics substitute Paul Pierce
for Ray Allen in your proposed trade?

It would seem to make more sense to me if Pierce were sent to Minnesota with Big Baby,
the Celtics would still gain Mike Miller, Corey Maggette and Brian Cardinal ??

-- Jammer

Because Pierce is younger and the better all around player. It would make more sense for the other team to want Paul because he's better, but it makes no sense whatsoever for the Celtics to want to trade Paul over Ray. Ray can't do all of what Pierce does. Are you a PP hater? Just asking.

[Jammer]

cisco: lighten up.

Havlicek17 said it best, no one is going anywhere.

I'm just indulging Pogue's well thought trade,
which won't happen,
by asking a valid question.

Pogue, we know, detests Ray.

Pierce, on the other hand, had a drop off in NET PER from 10.2 (last year), 10th best in NBA,
to 3.8, which is like 54th best this year.

Ray Allen, on the other hand, went from 5.9 last year (typical to better Ray),
to 9.5 this year (career best and 15th best in NBA right now).

So, as far as who should be in the trade,
I still think it's clearly PP,
unless he can recover his old form.

It would be real nice if Pierce, Perk, Powe and Tony
cut down their turnovers by 4 per game,
which would probably get the Celtics close to 4 more points per game.

Right now 28 teams make fewer turnovers than the Celtics.