Ainge's draft picks and other player personnel moves

Fencer reregistered · Post #1 » by **Fencer reregistered** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 9:48 am

Since it's Danny Ainge track record time, evidently, here's how I see his draft picks. The level of the pick has been taken into account. That's why, for example, I have Tony Allen and Oriene Greene in the same category, or for that matter Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes.

Clear successes
Al Jefferson
Kendrick Perkins
Rajon Rondo
Leon Powe
Ryan Gomes

OK return (trade throw-in of some perceived value)
Gerald Green
Delonte West
Justin Reed

OK return (serviceable player)
Tony Allen
Glen Davis
Oriene Greene

Outright bust
Marcus Banks

Too early to judge
Greg Pruitt
J. R. Giddens
Bill Walker
Semih Erden

I think that's an outstanding record.

I also think it's the best part of Ainge's tenure.

Acquiring KG and Ray Allen were a matter of wanting to do it, having ownership willing to pay luxury tax, doing a good job on his draft picks, and fielding a team bad enough to get a high lottery pick. I.e., to give him high credit for both the picks and the trades would be double-counting.

The series of trades that sent out Antoine Walker, Tony Delk, and the lottery pick that could have been Brandon Roy or Rudy Gay, while bringing back Sebastian Telfair and several lower first-round picks, turned out pretty badly.

The sequence of trades and signings that turned Tony Battie and not much else into a couple of picks plus tradeable filler (Wally) was decent, even if it caused lots of aggravation (Mark Blount!, Ricky Davis) along the way.

One year of James Posey and a few months of P.J. Brown keep Ainge's free agency work from being a disaster, but it hasn't been stellar.

And I think that pretty much covers things.

BillessuR6 · Post #2 » by **BillessuR6** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:52 am

His drafting has been brilliant! He got phenomenal value for where he picked. The only bad pick was Banks, everything else was great.

GreenGrizz · Post #3 » by **GreenGrizz** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 3:55 pm

Ainge could have gotten David Lee, David West, Josh Smith, Brandon Roy, Anderson Varejo and Yialian Ji.

Legal Non-Conforming · Post #4 » by **Legal Non-Conforming** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 4:30 pm

Didn't Ainge push hard to get Allen Iverson before he got Garnett? Wasn't it Philly that balked at the deal?

Zin5 · Post #5 » by **Zin5** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 5:23 pm

GreenGrizz wrote:Ainge could have gotten David Lee, David West, Josh Smith, Brandon Roy, Anderson Varejo and Yialian Ji.

David Lee - Last pick in the first round, so could every other team. There was no way we were passing up Gerald Green at that point.
David West - It took him three years to develop into anything after staying in college for four years, I'm pretty sure that was just unpredictable.
Josh Smith - You would've rather had him than Big Al?
Brandon Roy - We traded the pick, it's not fair to fault his drafting ability for a pick we no longer had.
Anderson Varejao - First pick in the second round, so could every other team. We got solid players in the pick ahead of him, I'm pretty sure other teams are biting themselves more.
Yi Jianlian - see Brandon Roy

Considering where most of the picks were, there's no point in whining over who we didn't, because we got a solid player out of all but one of our first round picks, which is more than any other team could probably say. You're not always going to get the best player, consistently getting serviceable players out of late first rounders and even second rounders is very impressive.

Post #6 » by **ParticleMan** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 5:34 pm

GreenGrizz wrote:Ainge could have gotten David Lee, David West, Josh Smith, Brandon Roy, Anderson Varejo and Yialian Ji.

Besides the arguments above, all you're proving is that Ainge didn't get the ABSOLUTE BEST draft pick with every one of his picks.

OK, now here's a list of GM who have ever gotten the best available player with every pick 4 years in a row:

.

point is, that's a ridiculous standard. Ainge has been well above average, and frankly it's his drafting ability that won us a title. we wouldn't have been able to trade for KG and Ray if we didn't have top young talent.

U2larkin04 · Post #7 » by **U2larkin04** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 6:52 pm

I think West could be a success considering he's starting for one of the best teams in the league right now.

billfromBoston · Post #8 » by **billfromBoston** » Sun Jan 11, 2009 7:56 pm

Fencer reregistered wrote:Since it's Danny Ainge track record time, evidently, here's how I see his draft picks. The level of the pick has been taken into account. That's why, for example, I have Tony Allen and Oriene Greene in the same category, or for that matter Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes.

Clear successes
Al Jefferson
Kendrick Perkins
Rajon Rondo
Leon Powe
Ryan Gomes

OK return (trade throw-in of some perceived value)
Gerald Green
Delonte West
Justin Reed

OK return (serviceable player)
Tony Allen
Glen Davis
Oriene Greene

Outright bust
Marcus Banks

Too early to judge
Greg Pruitt
J. R. Giddens
Bill Walker
Semih Erden

I think that's an outstanding record.

I also think it's the best part of Ainge's tenure.

Acquiring KG and Ray Allen were a matter of wanting to do it, having ownership willing to pay luxury tax, doing a good job on his draft picks, and fielding a team bad enough to get a high lottery pick. I.e., to give him high credit for both the picks and the trades would be double-counting.

The series of trades that sent out Antoine Walker, Tony Delk, and the lottery pick that could have been Brandon Roy or Rudy Gay, while bringing back Sebastian Telfair and several lower first-round picks, turned out pretty badly.

The sequence of trades and signings that turned Tony Battie and not much else into a couple of picks plus tradeable filler (Wally) was decent, even if it caused lots of aggravation (Mark Blount!, Ricky Davis) along the way.

One year of James Posey and a few months of P.J. Brown keep Ainge's free agency work from being a disaster, but it hasn't been stellar.

And I think that pretty much covers things.

Great breakdown, but you HAVE TO understand that the Raef/Telfair trade was made in large part to acquire and expiring contract - this is fact.. The team was at the stage where Big Al had established himself as their lead commodity and Ainge was looking to get in a position to make a blockbuster trade.

As far as Ainge's FA record - People look at Blount and Scalabrine with much to harsh and eye. Blount was re-signed in Ainge's first year. He was a favorite of the head coach and the fanbase after a stellar year and was clearly the best available Center on the market or on the team. Ainge drafted Perkins to groom, so he had an eye on the position, but mid level money for a productive center who was endorsed by the head coach is a no-brainer move for a man with no time spent around the situation to date.

Most of Ainge's other FA signings were specifically designed to be movable and short-term. They each had experience in winning environments - Scalabrine having gone to the finals, Googs, Payton, James, Raef, Atkins all laden with vet experience with quality clubs. He could have spent MLE money and gotten some slag that would have been more individually recognizable, but what would paying guys like Earl Watson and Donyell Marshall have done for the current incarnation of the franchise?

Ainge was keeping things flexible until a point where he thought he may have the right core - he came close during the Walker/Pierce/Davis/Payton team, but that was a one season experiement to see if the personalities could mesh into a contender - he wisely decided that their was too much whining and attitude and re-shuffled.

Each season has provided time to evaluate options and Ainge has made excellent choices on the whole - he's never made a move that has hurt the teams ability to increase the volume or magnitude of a future transaction and that truism continues into the present day.

His biggest challenge will be retooling around the decline of GPA - something he is in a position to do...started nicely with Perk/Rondo/Powe/Walker/Giddens/Pruitt group and should be able to add an impact player around them...

Fencer reregistered · Post #9 » by **Fencer reregistered** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:12 am

Thanks for the kind words!

billfromBoston wrote:
the Raef/Telfair trade was made in large part to acquire and expiring contract

That's why the deals to acquire Raef and to dump him can only be fairly evaluated as a pair.

Taking on Raef's contract for Toine brought in about 3 first-rounders. Dumping Raef's contract cost a lottery pick.

Considering that Toine's trade value was at least a first at the time (as evidenced by the Mavs soon flipping him for Terry and a 1st, and the Cs then spending a 1st to get him back), that's giving up a lottery pick to get two late picks -- a bad move even if a forgivable one.

Bad-Thoma · Post #10 » by **Bad-Thoma** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:22 am

Previous decade and a half or so, no banners, since DA... Green #17. That's the stat that I think DA should be judged by, along with not slipping back into a quagmire of mediocraty after the GPA decline. Time will tell on that one, but I've got faith.

Fencer reregistered · Post #11 » by **Fencer reregistered** » Mon Jan 12, 2009 6:55 pm

Bad-Thoma wrote:Previous decade and a half or so, no banners, since DA... Green #17. That's the stat that I think DA should be judged by, along with not slipping back into a quagmire of mediocraty after the GPA decline. Time will tell on that one, but I've got faith.

Agreed. He started out with Pierce, an extra first-rounder, and some players (Battie, Walker) whose trade value was a couple of first-rounders beyond that.

In a few years he got to the best starting line-up in the league and at least one championship.