Some thoughts on our 2009 Playoff Chances and Mr. Rondo
Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2009 2:58 am
Regardless of any personnel moves Danny might make before the playoffs, it is already clear that the path to 18 is going to be far more treacherous than the path to 17.
Even if we play our very best, we could still lose to a Cleveland, an LA, an Orlando. In fact our chances of getting 18 are fairly small if we do not have the home court advantage and have to go through all three of those teams.
The goods news is that if we do somehow win 18, the 2009 Cs will definitely go down as one of the greatest teams of all time.
The 2-7 slump brought all of us back to earth. It reinforced two points that had already been clear:
1. We need a healthy and proficient Perk at the top of his game. We need Perk playing the best ball of his career. Not only as a stud defender, but as a legitimate low-post scoring threat. We have no hope in the playoffs otherwise, looking at Howard and all the tall timber in Cleveland and LA.
2. We need the all-star Rondo, the swashbuckling braveheart guy who simply dominates games like he did today. If Rondo plays poorly, with turnovers and a lack of nerve, like he did during some of the slump, we have no chance against elite teams. None.
Obviously, we need the big three to play at the top of their games. But I think we can afford an occasional off-night offensively from Paul or Ray or KG far more than we can afford not to have Rondo on top of his game.
Now I adore Rondo. There are very few players in the league who I find as pleasurable to watch play. It is astonishing that a player can be so good when he still has so much room for improvement. There are four areas Rondo can and must improve upon, beyond just getting more experience in game situations.
1. He has to be able to finish with his left hand. This costs us a couple of baskets every game. I suspect this will require off-season work.
2. He needs to hit 75-80 percent of his free throws. Once he does that, I suspect he will be even more aggressive.
3. He needs to develop the pull-up jumper. A month or so back Doc said that once Rondo gets this shot, “it will be all over.” That is because he will be able to get the pull-up jumper anytime he wants because no one on this planet can ever guard him closely without becoming a human turnstile.
4. He needs to develop his catch-and-shoot jumper from mid-range to out past the 3 point line. He gets these wide open shots every game, and he needs to get comfortable taking them. Frankly, I don’t care if he misses this shot three or four or five times per game for the rest of the season. Keep taking it. Get Tommy Heinsohn and Danny Ainge to talk you down from any guilt complex. We aren’t beating LA or Cleveland or maybe even Orlando if he can’t make this shot at an adequate level, even if we have home court advantage.
I think Rondo may be able to do all these things fairly well within three or four seasons, maybe sooner. And if and when he does, he will be one of the best 5-10 players in the league.
I don’t think he will be doing many of these things by May or June 2009, and I think that could be a problem.
At the same time, there are times a player simply blossoms quickly, especially when they are as young as Rondo. It is not impossible. I recall how Dennis Johnson went from very-solid-and-promising-young-player-who-couldn’t-shoot to game-dominating-backcourt-Superstar in the 1978 playoffs, when he was 23. I watched DJ all season – I lived in Seattle then – and his emergence was electrifying.
That is how much we depend upon Rondo at this point.
Even if we play our very best, we could still lose to a Cleveland, an LA, an Orlando. In fact our chances of getting 18 are fairly small if we do not have the home court advantage and have to go through all three of those teams.
The goods news is that if we do somehow win 18, the 2009 Cs will definitely go down as one of the greatest teams of all time.
The 2-7 slump brought all of us back to earth. It reinforced two points that had already been clear:
1. We need a healthy and proficient Perk at the top of his game. We need Perk playing the best ball of his career. Not only as a stud defender, but as a legitimate low-post scoring threat. We have no hope in the playoffs otherwise, looking at Howard and all the tall timber in Cleveland and LA.
2. We need the all-star Rondo, the swashbuckling braveheart guy who simply dominates games like he did today. If Rondo plays poorly, with turnovers and a lack of nerve, like he did during some of the slump, we have no chance against elite teams. None.
Obviously, we need the big three to play at the top of their games. But I think we can afford an occasional off-night offensively from Paul or Ray or KG far more than we can afford not to have Rondo on top of his game.
Now I adore Rondo. There are very few players in the league who I find as pleasurable to watch play. It is astonishing that a player can be so good when he still has so much room for improvement. There are four areas Rondo can and must improve upon, beyond just getting more experience in game situations.
1. He has to be able to finish with his left hand. This costs us a couple of baskets every game. I suspect this will require off-season work.
2. He needs to hit 75-80 percent of his free throws. Once he does that, I suspect he will be even more aggressive.
3. He needs to develop the pull-up jumper. A month or so back Doc said that once Rondo gets this shot, “it will be all over.” That is because he will be able to get the pull-up jumper anytime he wants because no one on this planet can ever guard him closely without becoming a human turnstile.
4. He needs to develop his catch-and-shoot jumper from mid-range to out past the 3 point line. He gets these wide open shots every game, and he needs to get comfortable taking them. Frankly, I don’t care if he misses this shot three or four or five times per game for the rest of the season. Keep taking it. Get Tommy Heinsohn and Danny Ainge to talk you down from any guilt complex. We aren’t beating LA or Cleveland or maybe even Orlando if he can’t make this shot at an adequate level, even if we have home court advantage.
I think Rondo may be able to do all these things fairly well within three or four seasons, maybe sooner. And if and when he does, he will be one of the best 5-10 players in the league.
I don’t think he will be doing many of these things by May or June 2009, and I think that could be a problem.
At the same time, there are times a player simply blossoms quickly, especially when they are as young as Rondo. It is not impossible. I recall how Dennis Johnson went from very-solid-and-promising-young-player-who-couldn’t-shoot to game-dominating-backcourt-Superstar in the 1978 playoffs, when he was 23. I watched DJ all season – I lived in Seattle then – and his emergence was electrifying.
That is how much we depend upon Rondo at this point.