What's Happened To The King of Leon?

[Cyclical]

I'm sure I'm not the only one who expected Powe's game to be elevated this year. We're more than half way through the season and Leon's playing worst than last year. He seems to be regressing as the season progresses. What's happened to that much-talked-about post game? Our guy seems to be throwing his body around trying to get fouled and simply can't hit the rim anymore. The good news? Things can change around in a hurry in the NBA but I'm a bit baffled. I thought he'd be more productive by now.

Powe's been scoring less in more minutes than last year. His FG%, though still high, is down from .572 to .519. He has not improved in any meaningful category while turning the ball over more.

Lately:
Vs. Dallas: 0-3, 0 boards in almost 9 minutes.
Vs. Orlando: 0-3 and a TO in almost 7 minutes
Vs. Miami: 0-3 and a TO in 8+ minutes
Vs. Suns: 2-7 in 22+ minutes
Vs. Nets: 1-4 and 2 TO's in 23+ minutes


Bring Leon back.

[Celts09]

is he playing hurt?
seems like his playing time has been decreasing over that last 5 games.

[Avalanche]

i think teams have figured him out... dude is a hard worker, and i respect the effort he gives on court, but he is what he is, an undersized low post scorer.

That jumper that Baby is working on is what Leon is going to need next, aswell as improving his defence.

Other teams seem to know once he gets the ball a shot is going up and are bodying him up a lot better than last season, taking him out of his relatively limited eliment.

Really id be all for extending his minutes and boosting his stock for trade

[jP3000]

I think teams have sorted him out, give him room and don't foul him. Plus Baby has found this magic jumper and it's taking Powe's PT.

[Avalanche]

^ Another good point, hes not getting to the line at all.. teams have definately figured him out, and unfortunately it wasnt that difficult by the looks of it

[e in boulder]

Doc happened.

I'm not sure if it's poor performance in practice, or an inability to understand the defense... Doc just flat out likes Scal and Davis better at the moment.

Would love to see him get some more run though.

[humblebum]

I think that Leon is simply not an ideal fit for what the coaching staff is looking for from a front court player. He's not even average defensively against true sized PF's and is incapable against Centers. His overall awareness of defensive rotations has improved somewhat but he's far from a natural in this area. And in terms of defending perimeter PF's Scal is simply better suited.

Offensively, he doesn't excel at moving the ball with the pass, which is what Doc constantly preaches. In this area Scal and Davis are much more capable. And Doc really tends to favor frontcourt players who can shoot as they spread the floor and open up driving lanes. Perk's the exception here, but he does all of the defensive things really well, plus he's a better passer/finisher than Leon.

So in short, it's not that Leon is a bad pro player or that the league has figured him out... to me it's just that he's a solid guy in a situation where he's not a great fit for the roster or what the coaches want out of their frontcourt players.

[sully00]

While I think all the points mentioned are relevant, I think two issues have sort of taken hold and one of them is dumb luck. This has run against both Baby and especially Scal in the past. Some guys just check into the game and **** goes wrong and Leon seems to be suffering from that right about now. It is probably from trying to do a little too much and not letting the game come to him. But the guy has great hands and now he is all thumbs and seems to be rushing his shot to avoid the shotblockers instead of using a move.

The second thing is the game situation is just not calling for his skills. We either need a long perimeter defender, or someone to bang with a 7', or space the floor, and Leon just is not one of those things. While the team is heating up from the perimeter it would be a great time for more Powe but Baby and Scal are just playing really good ball.

He may also be changing addresses and the team wants to see what they look like without him before making that call.

[EddieStarkBG]

Your whole bench has struggled this season so far. Actually only Brian Scalabrine has been your best option off the bench when he doesn't start. Is Ainge pursuing any deals trade wise? alot of players are available.

[MaxwellSmart]

Don't worry...when you least expect it--Leon will have a Breakout game--just like Big Baby has lately...Many of you threw Davis under the bus very quickly,for a guy who is only in his 2nd year.

[Jammer]

1. Teams have studied film of Leon, his defenders know his moves, and he needed those moves to overcome taller defenders.

2. He hasn't shown a consistent mid-range jumper, but has relied on
low post moves, getting to the line, putbacks and dish offs.

3. He is unfortunately paired with Davis or Scalabrine, not an ideal pairing,
and more often, to Leon's detriment, Davis.

[billfromBoston]

I'm sure I'm not the only one who expected Powe's game to be elevated this year. We're more than half way through the season and Leon's playing worst than last year. He seems to be regressing as the season progresses. What's happened to that much-talked-about post game? Our guy seems to be throwing his body around trying to get fouled and simply can't hit the rim anymore. The good news? Things can change around in a hurry in the NBA but I'm a bit baffled. I thought he'd be more productive by now.

Powe's been scoring less in more minutes than last year. His FG%, though still high, is down from .572 to .519. He has not improved in any meaningful category while turning the ball over more.

Lately:
Vs. Dallas: 0-3, 0 boards in almost 9 minutes.
Vs. Orlando: 0-3 and a TO in almost 7 minutes
Vs. Miami: 0-3 and a TO in 8+ minutes
Vs. Suns: 2-7 in 22+ minutes
Vs. Nets: 1-4 and 2 TO's in 23+ minutes


Bring Leon back.

To understand some of this you have to look at how Leon has been used in the context of the rotation and his role within it from last year to this..

Last season Leon played a majority of his minutes with 2 to 3 starters on the floor with him. His bench time also included PT with veterans PJ Brown, James Posey, Eddie House, and Sam Cassell. This season he has seen most of his minutes with Davis, TA, and House.

Powe's statistical effectiveness is on par with last season in the minutes he's received with KG and Rondo in the lineup, which is not suprising as it affords him many more easy baskets than the "all bench" lineup or the one featuring either Ray or Paul.

Last season Powe only got 18% of his offense from post plays, with over 60% coming from Pick-and-Roll and Basket Cut plays. This season Powe's post up offense has become over 35% post up and less than 40% P&R and Basket Cut plays.

So, Powe has doubled his post up usage while getting 20% less off-ball usage overall and he's been doing it with less support talent around him. The team made a conscious decision to try and feature Powe on the block this season as a go-to option and up until the past 3 weeks it has been fairly effective as Powe still rates very highly in terms of his post up efficiency on the year. But he is losing out on one or two easy baskets a game on average, which has hurt his productivity and ultimately his playing time.

But Powe has not played with very many playmakers this season - no PG to dribble-penetrate and no floor spacing big man to open up the middle and find him on basket cuts. This has caused his overall decline in production - which is still a minimal decline overall.

Now, the past few weeks is a different story. Powe has not seen a great deal of possessions and he has become over-reliant on his primary post move, which opposing defenders have adjusted to. Earlier in the year when he was seeing more touches, Powe was using a rolling hook, counter-spin, and a fall away jumper to keep defenders honest. Recently he has been going to the rip-through every time and opponents are backing off him and shadowing the move and challenging the shot instead of getting beat off the dribble or getting knocked back by body contact.

Its up to Powe to adjust his post repertoire and stop being so reliant on his primary move. He'll have to do this in practice for the time being because his down-tick in finishing has allowed Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine - who are both playing very well - to siphon off his minutes.

Powe's role on this team is to duplicate Kendrick Perkins - be a low post threat and be in position for easy baskets. Its Powe's job to improve his decision-making in the post to improve his effectiveness on the block. It took teams half a year to adjust to his post game because Powe has an excellent first step and can finish with contact as well as any player in the league. Now that they have adjusted, its Powe's turn to mix it up.

There are 37 games to go and much more practice time in the 2nd half of the season. Powe has always shown himself to be a good listener and apt pupil when it comes to taking advice and between Cliff Ray, Kendrick Perkins, and KG I expect Powe to search for answers and put in the extra work needed to make the needed adjustments.

This is what development is all about. Having quality competition at your position, which forces you to keep working at your craft - this will benefit Powe in the long run.

[billfromBoston]

I think that Leon is simply not an ideal fit for what the coaching staff is looking for from a front court player. He's not even average defensively against true sized PF's and is incapable against Centers. His overall awareness of defensive rotations has improved somewhat but he's far from a natural in this area. And in terms of defending perimeter PF's Scal is simply better suited.

Offensively, he doesn't excel at moving the ball with the pass, which is what Doc constantly preaches. In this area Scal and Davis are much more capable. And Doc really tends to favor frontcourt players who can shoot as they spread the floor and open up driving lanes. Perk's the exception here, but he does all of the defensive things really well, plus he's a better passer/finisher than Leon.

So in short, it's not that Leon is a bad pro player or that the league has figured him out... to me it's just that he's a solid guy in a situation where he's not a great fit for the roster or what the coaches want out of their frontcourt players.

When I go up to Boston in March I will get you concrete quotable proof from the coaching staff that its not Leon's man defense or an inability to hit jump shots that has anything to do with his current playing time.

Leon is an excellent man defender - he doesn't get beat by anyone he plays on a regular basis - this is just not true. He also isn't asked to hit jump shots because he plays almost 100 percent of his minutes with a high post frontcourt teammate.

Kendrick Perkins can hit the jumper too, but his primary role is to be around the basket, get some post ups, and be available for dump offs and put-backs --- this is Powe's role to, he would be benched quicker if he decided to take his game outside - its not his choice and its not his limitation. Powe can shoot the ball decently enough, but he is a better post up player and one of the few the team has.

And while he certainly is not a world-beating passer, post players don't move the ball quickly when they're working their match up. Look at KG, Perk, and Pierce when they are attacking in the paint. They are in possession of the ball for 6-8 seconds while their attacking their man. Post play always slows down ball-movement, its the exchange you make for the highest percentage shot on the floor.

Powe has been very good at picking when to attack the basket and when to get rid of the ball. What he hasn't been good at is going into his move quickly and having the trust to kick out to the strong side perimeter help and re-posting. His passing from the high post has been quick and effective as he doesn't look for any offense outside of his baseline comfort zone.

Powe has made much better reads when facing double teams and has even picked up a number of assist by finding cutters when he's facing up and seeing how the defense is set. His number one problem right now is the diversity of his post decisions - he is being too predictable with his attack.

[cisco]

I totally agree with Humblebum's post.

I think Powe's poor defense, poor passing (or refusal to pass) and his inability to stretch the defense has moved Davis ahead of him in the rotation. I don't see the good defense BillfromBoston keeps claiming Powe is playing. Young players get playing time from Doc mostly from what they can do on the defensive end first (at least that's what Doc has consistently said) and Davis has simply been better in that area, especially against the elite big guys. Stats don't necessarily work when comparing Powe and Davis. Ex. the game where Davis had 16 pts and Powe played terribly? Powe had a better +/- even though he had a poor game and Davis had a great game.

Powe is simply too one dimensional and it appears that teams have learned his one and only move. Powe needs to expand his game by adding a jumpshot. I also think there is a reason the Celtics have Davis working on a jumpshot and not Powe.... they believe Davis has the skills and upside to expand his game, where Powe may not have the same skills or ability.

I agree with whoever said Powe is just not a fit for the Celtics. The Celtics are built on defense and sharing the ball or passing, two things that Davis excels at, but Powe doesn't do well.

[cisco]

Doc happened.

I'm not sure if it's poor performance in practice, or an inability to understand the defense... Doc just flat out likes Scal and Davis better at the moment.

Would love to see him get some more run though.

Powe happened, not Doc. Doc has not totally taken Leon out of the rotation and has given him some garbage time minutes against the other teams backups, which should have allowed Leon to get some of his mojo back. Leon was still incapable of having a decent game in garbage time against the other teams backups and still got almost every shot attempt blocked. Just another reason to think the league might have caught up to him a bit.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

Doc is stashing him on the bench as per Danny Ainge's orders. He's an expiring contract right now, and GMs from every team saw what he did in the Finals last year. He's a bruiser down low, decent defender, gets to the line, and is an outstanding young man. I'm sure whenever Ainge calls someone up for a trade, every GM probably asks for Leon as a throw-in. Once we get another big man and/or get rid of Baby, Leon's minutes will go up again.

[sully00]

bfb

If you make your way back to this thread what exactly has happened to this team's P&R game? It wasn't exactly a Rondo initiated set it actually seemed to me to be something that happened with Pierce or KG more often with Powe, Perk, and Baby diving to the hoop. Do you see teams taking it away defensively, Pierce especially seems back to going away from the pick, obviously we have had some issues with foul calls on the picks but we seemed to have gone away from this offensively.

[humblebum]

billfromboston, let me make my point more clear, I'm not necessarily saying that Powe is a poor man defender on the perimeter or in the post, or that he's a poor help defender, or that he can't hit a mid-range shot, or that he's only got one move on the post. What I am saying is that Doc is looking for certain things moreso than others and that Davis and Scals are just currently better options in those areas.

For instance, Davis has been tasked with taking the mid-range jumper while Powe has not. To me that indicates that the coaching staff feels that Davis has an overall stronger perimeter skill set which includes the mid-range jumper for starters but possibly more importantly his passing skills, footwork in terms of pick and pop and pick and roll plays, and his ability to set really, really good screens. Defensively, though Powe has improved, he's simply not as good at defending the Antawn Jamison's of the world as is Scals and he's not as good at defending the Howards, Yao's or Big Z's of the world as Davis.

Powe still has a valuable niche skill set as a scorer (which IMO is really what he is) and given the right roster complements Powe could really thrive like a Paul Millsap. To me he has the greatest individual upside and the greatest possiblity of overcoming his "role/situationl player" status. However, I don't believe that he can be a full-time backup or starter with this team because one he doesn't thrive in the things I stated above and two, and possibly most important, he doesn't complement KG (because that would leave two post players who are incapable or uninterested in guarding centers) or Perkins (because neither have proven jump shots) particularly well.

[boykins_2]

Teams have figured him out? They've adjusted to him? No sale!
Awful long time to have teams "figure" him out (2 + seasons).
Probably just in a minny slump, his baskets haven't been as easy, lower playing time which has reduced his confidence a littly bit.

You never going to stop a hard worker like Leon from scoring in spite of his size. No accident that he was getting to the foul line as much as he was, very high % per minutes played.

[Red2]

I agree re the need for Leon to develop a jumper > right now he's a one trick pony and teams are playing him for it.He also appears to have lost a lot of confidence probably because Baby and Scal have taken his minutes. I'd say the number one problem though isn't his O but the fact that he is out of position all the time on his defensive rotations. YOu can hear Doc screaming at him almost every game about some blown assignment. I love Leon's heart and hustle and I think he could easily turn things around with a good game. Right now he's pressing and rushing and he's not going to the hoop with confidence. When the ball comes into to him it never moves out of the post. Leon needs to pass out of the double team and then re-post. Baby moves the ball and makes passes; you never see Leon give the ball up once he gets it and it kills ball movement on the second unit . If he doesn't score ( which he hasn't been lately) then the other team's second unit is off to the races for a fast break