Is Dwyane Wade in the C

[elrod enchilada]

Is Dwyane Wade in the C’s Future?

Indulge me. I know, this seems absurd. But this is RealGM, and that is what this board is about. Also, you can bet that the people running the Cs franchise are thinking in these terms, if not exactly about Dwyane Wade. The one thing we know about Danny is that he is always thinking three moves ahead, just like Red.

Dwyane Wade has the right to be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010. If he exercises that right, there will be numerous teams in a position to offer him a maximum contract, including both New York area teams. The Cs will be well over the cap.

So how or why can the Cs get Dwayne Wade?

First, the why. In at least two interviews I can recall over the past eight months Dwyane Wade has gone out of his way to praise the Celtics and Doc Rivers. Like Doc, he is a proud Chicagoan and a loyal Marquette guy. He loves the way the Cs play. He has a sense of the game’s tradition. I get the sense he would like to play here, with Rondo, KG and the guys. And play for Doc. Don’t get me wrong; I do not think Wade wants to come to Boston before any number of other teams. And I certainly do not think he would come here for anything less than a max contract. But I think he would be very warm to the idea of playing Boston.

Second, the how. There is no way the Cs can sign him as a free agent in 2020. That leaves two options: 1) a sign-and-trade in the summer of 2010; or 2) a deal just before the trade deadline one year from now in February 2010.

In the first case, the Cs would have considerable leverage if Wade decided he wanted to come to Boston. If Miami balked at a deal, Wade simply signs with the Knicks or the Nets and the Heat get nothing in return. So the Cs have to have something of value to offer the Heat. Regrettably, any way I do the math and try to get the salaries to match, it is almost impossible to do, in a way that would give the Heat any incentive. The only way it could be made to work as far as I can tell is to have Miami do a simultaneous sign-and-trade with then-restricted free agent Rajon Rondo. That is a dealbreaker to me. I want Rondo in Boston for the next 15 years.

This leads to the most plausible route: a trade before the February 2010 trade deadline. It goes like this: Wade confirms to Heat management that he is planning to be a free agent in 2010 and that he will likely not return to Miami. He does this as a favor so the team can trade him to get some value for him. However, since Wade is announcing he will test the waters in 2010 even if traded, his market value will not be especially high.

This is where the Cs put together a package of expiring contracts – House, Scal, T. Allen – future no. 1 picks in 2010, 2012, 2014 – and a couple of young prospects from Walker, Pruitt, Giddens, Big Baby. To make the salaries work the Cs need to sign a free agent this off-season, ideally to a one-year deal. If the free agent is close to MLE salary, the Cs would be able to take Marcus Banks off the Heat’s hands, too.

Now there may be other teams that can try to get Wade before the trade deadline as well, but as I go through the list, I am not certain the Heat can get a better package. No team, say the Jazz, for example, is going to trade a legit young star like Deron Williams under contract for a guy who is about to become an unrestricted free agent. And the last thing the Heat wants instead of Wade is a bunch of long-term contracts for mediocre players. Better to let Wade walk then. The Nets could offer Vince Carter, young studs, and better no. 1 picks – NJ has the Dallas 2010 pick among others -- but do the Heat want Carter’s contract and, more important, do the Nets want to give up good no. 1 picks and young studs if they might lose Wade in the summer of 2010? If Wade goes elsewhere, the Nets are fried for a decade. I don’t think they run that risk. Better for the Nets to keep those young studs and high number one picks and try to pry Wade (or James or Yao Ming or Bosh) away in the summer of 2010 as an unrestricted free agent.

So, what do the Heat get by trading Wade to the Cs? They get three no. 1 draft picks, two or three inexpensive young prospects and they dump Banks. They are still very far below the cap in 2010. That is a lot better than losing Wade altogether.

And they could come back in the summer of 2010 and re-sign Wade! At any rate, the team is in Miami, not Duluth. If they do the Cs deal, the Heat will be able to sign two max-contract studs in 2010. They will not be down long.

The risk the Cs take is that Wade may not resign with them in the summer of 2010. Then they have had their clocks cleaned. But that is a risk I would be willing to take, based upon what Wade has been saying about Boston and Rivers. I think Wade re-ups a five year extension through 2015. That takes him to his 33rd birthday. Prime time.

If it works, the Cs will be a league powerhouse and positioned to remain a contender through the decline of KG and PP. Rondo and Wade in the backcourt in their primes, with Ray Allen the third guard. I get goose bumps thinking about it. Yikes!

[cfan79]

I think it would take Ray and Rondo to get Wade and I don't know if I'd be willing to do that trade. It would however open up a possible chance at getting Lebron.

[chakdaddy]

By my calculations we won't be well over the cap, we're potentially 8 mil under the cap if Ray is renounced; with potential wiggle room if Rondo's extension isn't big, if Rondo is conivnced to take the qualifying offer and re-sign for more the next year, or if Pierce takes a pay cut.

Seems like finagling that way is more plausible than trading for Wade.

I invoke my "or else they risk losing him for nothing" clause and declare your trade idea silly...

[avi623]

I think it would take Ray and Rondo to get Wade and I don't know if I'd be willing to do that trade.

That is a Hall of Fame post. Nor would I do any kind of Pierce and Perk for Dwight Howard swap.

[avi623]

I'm glad you prefaced this post, by the way, by noting how ridiculous it is. Just because one of the game's best players has kind words for a Marquette alum, it does not mean he wants to trade South Beach for Southie.

[Bad-Thoma]

Give him a break guys, Wade has been mentioned plenty of times on this board in reference to 2010. Doesn't make it realistic, but that was part of the OP anyway. The thing that scares me about the trade idea is the likelihood that multiple 1st rounders would probably be involved... at some point this team is going to need to draft some 1st rounders again and develop them though if we got Wade they'd probably be 20th or above at best anyways so maybe it's not such an issue. Do we have a 1st rounder this year or did it go in the KG trade? Well, I guess we can dream.

[cisco]

I love Wade, but I don't think he is a good fit for the Celtics. Wade plays the same position as Ray, so Ray would have to come off the bench. Also, while Wade and Pierce don't play the same position, they play the same role on their teams.... slasher and defacto playmaker. If we signed Wade, then Pierce would be a spot up shooter. Wade, like Pierce, needs a big defender (KG) and shooters (like Ray), not another guy who does the exact same thing. That's why KG, PP and Ray complement each other so well, they play totally different roles from each other.

[stretch]

This is a good thread. Wade really likes Garnett. Always had great words for him, like in the ABC/ESPN booth during the 2008 playoffs. Not out of the question.

But the most viable scenario would probably have us sending Rondo and Ray Allen's contract to Miami. hard to see the Celtics being able to sign him.

And if you're Wade, having developed a good relationship with Bosh, LeBron, Kobe, Dwight and the others on the recent Team USA (as widely reported), why wouldn't you want to go play with one of those guys. Wade wants to play with LeBron or Bosh. That's quite a hurdle. And if you were him, wouldn't you want to play with Dwight?

It's probably more realistic to go for Kevin Durant, or a veteran Nowitzki or Nash to maximize KG's last years.

[ysF]

...Second, the how. There is no way the Cs can sign him as a free agent in 2020...

Exactly, I totally agree !!

[Celtics_Champs]

I love how wade has talked up the C's more then once. But he also just came out and said that a possibility of LBJ and him on the knicks isn't unrealistic.

http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wireta ... ld_happen/

I think Dwyane just likes to talk

[cfan79]

That is a Hall of Fame post. Nor would I do any kind of Pierce and Perk for Dwight Howard swap.

Totally different scenario's. Dwight Howard is a beast at a position that there aren't many good players at. Also Rajon Rondo is what makes us run so well.

[DorfonCeltics]

I've been an advocate for going after DWade for a while now. I think he would be the perfect piece to extend the C's championship caliber play for another 3-4 years at least. I still don't understand how we wouldn't be able to offer Wade $15-16mil in the summer of 2010. Right now the C's salary cap figure going into the 2010/2011 season is $44.7mil, including the qualifying offer for Rondo of $3.7mil. The salary cap for that year will probably go up to the $62mil range (It's at $58.7 now). If we can get Rondo to sign a fairly reasonable extension in 2010 than we would have that money to sign Wade. Then you bring in Ray as a 6th man and you have a really good team for another few years. Is this scenario out of the question? No. Is it gonna happen? Probably not. Wade might want to go to New York to play with Lebron. I still think it's good to start thinking about these kinds of moves for that summer. We're going to have to do something that summer or risk a decline in the following years.

[elrod enchilada]

I have grappled with the salary cap totals and I do not think there is any way the Cs can get below the cap sufficently to offer a max contract in 2010. It would be difficult to do if the Cs did not want to win a title in 2009-10, so they were willing to scrap the season to reduce payroll. Because the Cs are going to play to win in 2009-10, I just don't think it can be done. I would rather have the Cs sign a great veteran to a multi-year or longer deal with the MLE this off-season so we can win a title in 2009-10 then weaken our chances in the prayer we might get massive capspace in 2010. I suspect Danny and Wyc feel the same way. Our window with the Big Three probably is shutting soon; absurd to not try to keep it open.

But it is not impossible, if we are willing to be hard-asses and roll the dice.

Assume the Cs keep the current roster and do not sign any free agents to contract this off-season for longer than a year, that extend past 2010.

Assume too, that they only sign Leon and Big Baby to one-year deals.

Assume also, that the Cs renounce all of their free agents in 2010: House, Scal, POB, Pruitt, T. Allen, R. Allen, Big Baby, Leon.

Assume the Cs do not sign Rondo to an extension before the summer of 2010. He will count $6.3 million against their cap unless he takes the fifth-year option on his deal. The fifth year option would have Rondo only count $3 million against the cap in 2010-11, but no way on earth under any ciricumstances will the Cs do this, or will Rondo accept this. Cs will not under any circumstances allow that Rondo be a UFA in 2011. They will, at most, keep him unsigned in the summer of 2010 until they sign a big ticket free agent. Then they will sign Rondo to a massive five-year deal.

So, stripping the roster down so that there are only five players under contract -- and, mind you, on the roster -- this is the Cs payroll on July 1, 2010:

KG-- $18.9m
PP-- $21.5m
RR-- $ 6.3m
BW-- $ 0.8m
JRG-- $1.2m

Grand total: $48.7m

Now, better yet, and this is absolutely crucial, Paul Pierce can opt out. He opts out on July 1, 2010 and that afternoon signs a five-year deal with Cs starting at $10 million in 2010-11 and having $1 million raise annually. Will Paul do this? Possibly.

Then the Cs have a cap total of 37.2 million on July 2, 2010.

That looks great, right?

Well, now let's return to reality and remember that we are in fact going to try to win the NBA title in the 2009-10 season, and that we cannto have a total scorched earth policy.

First, Leon and Big Baby are restricted free agents this summer. They do not need to accept a one-year deal from the Cs. They can get outside offers and force the Cs to match them. They almost certainly will refuse a one-year deal. They are not insane. So let's assume the Cs resign each of them to three year deals, and in 2010-11 they each get paid $3 million.

That puts the salary cap at 43.2 million.

Now as I read the Larry Coon FAQ on the cap, it seems like once a team renounces a player it is very difficult to resign them. It is also not clear to me if a team can go under the cap, sign a max-contract free agent on July 1, and then be eligible for the MLE on July 2. If someone else can determine this, I would be appreciative.

But my sense is that if we want Ray on the team in 2010-11 and beyond we should not renounce him. Rather we shouled sign him on July 1, 2010 to a new contract. Maybe a two-year deal with the first-year at $7 million.

Now we are at $50.2 million.

Likewise, let's assume that one of either Pruitt or O'Bryant will be worth holding on to. To not renounce them takes us to $51.2 million.

Then we have to have a slot for our 2010 first round pick. That will probably take us to $52.7 million.

I doubt the cap increases very much in a global depression. It may even decline. At best it will be $60 million.

So, yeah, we might be able to monkey with the salaries to get enough room, but Danny Ainge will be twisting like a pretzel to make it happen, and the team will suffer in the near term.

In my mind our energy should be elsewhere. We should just accept that we are not getting under the cap to get a max contract guy in 2010. The soonest that will be realistic is probably more like 2012.

elrod

Let

[Dave_From_NB]

Targetting 2010 I think is a good strategy for a team which is really bad. Stockpile some young talent, manage your contracts so you have expiring larger contracts, and take a swing at the 2010 class to become relevant again.

But I sincerely hope that the Celtics continue to try and win, and don't get in the sweepstakes of trying to buy a UFA in 2010. I think the best way for the C's to continue to win is to get as good an experienced big man with some mileage left this off season as they can with MLE, which is going to require a contract for 3-4 years. And in general, just keep adding pieces and adjusting contracts for the Big 3 downwards to keep the C's relevant for the foreseeable future. There is some nice chemistry out on the court, some players it is a joy to cheer for. And as we've seen time and time again, just having random superstars on the court doesn't guarantee a winning formula.

[chakdaddy]

Right now the C's salary cap figure going into the 2010/2011 season is $44.7mil, including the qualifying offer for Rondo of $3.7mil.

I was suckered in by this too. That 44.7 does not include the qualifying offer for Rondo, and the qualifying offer number is fairly meaningless unless he accepts it - the more important number is the cap hold which I thought would be around 7 million. The websites out there are kind of deceptive how they put this out there like it's really an option year when it's really just a potential contract offering that is unlikely to happen.

[chakdaddy]

Now as I read the Larry Coon FAQ on the cap, it seems like once a team renounces a player it is very difficult to resign them. It is also not clear to me if a team can go under the cap, sign a max-contract free agent on July 1, and then be eligible for the MLE on July 2. If someone else can determine this, I would be appreciative.

I'm pretty sure you can't...

I doubt Giddens is still around, I bet his option will get declined. I doubt we re-sign both Davis and Powe. And I thought the cap hold for Rondo would be closer to 7 million...

Otherwise I think you're right. I kind of had my illusions shattered a few days ago when I realized that Rondo's extension would count in 2010.

Maybe 2012 would be a good idea, keep whichever of KG/Pierce doesn't retire, keep Rondo...that would be an attractive destination.

The other option is sign someone for 8-9 mil in 2010 - but keeping Ray is probably more worthwhile.

[DorfonCeltics]

Right now the C's salary cap figure going into the 2010/2011 season is $44.7mil, including the qualifying offer for Rondo of $3.7mil.

I was suckered in by this too. That 44.7 does not include the qualifying offer for Rondo, and the qualifying offer number is fairly meaningless unless he accepts it - the more important number is the cap hold which I thought would be around 7 million. The websites out there are kind of deceptive how they put this out there like it's really an option year when it's really just a potential contract offering that is unlikely to happen.

Thanks for clearing that up chakdaddy. I was too lazy to do the math myself. I guess there is pretty much no way we are able to afford a good free agent in 2010.

[Celtsfan1980]

My preference would be to rebuild. I'm likely in the minority, but I feel you have a better connection to players when they've played their entire career on one team.

[Joekickass2008]

My preference would be to rebuild. I'm likely in the minority, but I feel you have a better connection to players when they've played their entire career on one team.

Agreed. Gotta admit though....I have trouble recalling KG and RR ever not being Celtics.

[chakdaddy]

Agreed. Gotta admit though....I have trouble recalling KG and RR ever not being Celtics.

Highlights of KG in a TWolves uniform look weird to me now...