Is Dwyane Wade in the C
Posted: Sat Jan 31, 2009 7:41 pm
Is Dwyane Wade in the C’s Future?
Indulge me. I know, this seems absurd. But this is RealGM, and that is what this board is about. Also, you can bet that the people running the Cs franchise are thinking in these terms, if not exactly about Dwyane Wade. The one thing we know about Danny is that he is always thinking three moves ahead, just like Red.
Dwyane Wade has the right to be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010. If he exercises that right, there will be numerous teams in a position to offer him a maximum contract, including both New York area teams. The Cs will be well over the cap.
So how or why can the Cs get Dwayne Wade?
First, the why. In at least two interviews I can recall over the past eight months Dwyane Wade has gone out of his way to praise the Celtics and Doc Rivers. Like Doc, he is a proud Chicagoan and a loyal Marquette guy. He loves the way the Cs play. He has a sense of the game’s tradition. I get the sense he would like to play here, with Rondo, KG and the guys. And play for Doc. Don’t get me wrong; I do not think Wade wants to come to Boston before any number of other teams. And I certainly do not think he would come here for anything less than a max contract. But I think he would be very warm to the idea of playing Boston.
Second, the how. There is no way the Cs can sign him as a free agent in 2020. That leaves two options: 1) a sign-and-trade in the summer of 2010; or 2) a deal just before the trade deadline one year from now in February 2010.
In the first case, the Cs would have considerable leverage if Wade decided he wanted to come to Boston. If Miami balked at a deal, Wade simply signs with the Knicks or the Nets and the Heat get nothing in return. So the Cs have to have something of value to offer the Heat. Regrettably, any way I do the math and try to get the salaries to match, it is almost impossible to do, in a way that would give the Heat any incentive. The only way it could be made to work as far as I can tell is to have Miami do a simultaneous sign-and-trade with then-restricted free agent Rajon Rondo. That is a dealbreaker to me. I want Rondo in Boston for the next 15 years.
This leads to the most plausible route: a trade before the February 2010 trade deadline. It goes like this: Wade confirms to Heat management that he is planning to be a free agent in 2010 and that he will likely not return to Miami. He does this as a favor so the team can trade him to get some value for him. However, since Wade is announcing he will test the waters in 2010 even if traded, his market value will not be especially high.
This is where the Cs put together a package of expiring contracts – House, Scal, T. Allen – future no. 1 picks in 2010, 2012, 2014 – and a couple of young prospects from Walker, Pruitt, Giddens, Big Baby. To make the salaries work the Cs need to sign a free agent this off-season, ideally to a one-year deal. If the free agent is close to MLE salary, the Cs would be able to take Marcus Banks off the Heat’s hands, too.
Now there may be other teams that can try to get Wade before the trade deadline as well, but as I go through the list, I am not certain the Heat can get a better package. No team, say the Jazz, for example, is going to trade a legit young star like Deron Williams under contract for a guy who is about to become an unrestricted free agent. And the last thing the Heat wants instead of Wade is a bunch of long-term contracts for mediocre players. Better to let Wade walk then. The Nets could offer Vince Carter, young studs, and better no. 1 picks – NJ has the Dallas 2010 pick among others -- but do the Heat want Carter’s contract and, more important, do the Nets want to give up good no. 1 picks and young studs if they might lose Wade in the summer of 2010? If Wade goes elsewhere, the Nets are fried for a decade. I don’t think they run that risk. Better for the Nets to keep those young studs and high number one picks and try to pry Wade (or James or Yao Ming or Bosh) away in the summer of 2010 as an unrestricted free agent.
So, what do the Heat get by trading Wade to the Cs? They get three no. 1 draft picks, two or three inexpensive young prospects and they dump Banks. They are still very far below the cap in 2010. That is a lot better than losing Wade altogether.
And they could come back in the summer of 2010 and re-sign Wade! At any rate, the team is in Miami, not Duluth. If they do the Cs deal, the Heat will be able to sign two max-contract studs in 2010. They will not be down long.
The risk the Cs take is that Wade may not resign with them in the summer of 2010. Then they have had their clocks cleaned. But that is a risk I would be willing to take, based upon what Wade has been saying about Boston and Rivers. I think Wade re-ups a five year extension through 2015. That takes him to his 33rd birthday. Prime time.
If it works, the Cs will be a league powerhouse and positioned to remain a contender through the decline of KG and PP. Rondo and Wade in the backcourt in their primes, with Ray Allen the third guard. I get goose bumps thinking about it. Yikes!
Indulge me. I know, this seems absurd. But this is RealGM, and that is what this board is about. Also, you can bet that the people running the Cs franchise are thinking in these terms, if not exactly about Dwyane Wade. The one thing we know about Danny is that he is always thinking three moves ahead, just like Red.
Dwyane Wade has the right to be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010. If he exercises that right, there will be numerous teams in a position to offer him a maximum contract, including both New York area teams. The Cs will be well over the cap.
So how or why can the Cs get Dwayne Wade?
First, the why. In at least two interviews I can recall over the past eight months Dwyane Wade has gone out of his way to praise the Celtics and Doc Rivers. Like Doc, he is a proud Chicagoan and a loyal Marquette guy. He loves the way the Cs play. He has a sense of the game’s tradition. I get the sense he would like to play here, with Rondo, KG and the guys. And play for Doc. Don’t get me wrong; I do not think Wade wants to come to Boston before any number of other teams. And I certainly do not think he would come here for anything less than a max contract. But I think he would be very warm to the idea of playing Boston.
Second, the how. There is no way the Cs can sign him as a free agent in 2020. That leaves two options: 1) a sign-and-trade in the summer of 2010; or 2) a deal just before the trade deadline one year from now in February 2010.
In the first case, the Cs would have considerable leverage if Wade decided he wanted to come to Boston. If Miami balked at a deal, Wade simply signs with the Knicks or the Nets and the Heat get nothing in return. So the Cs have to have something of value to offer the Heat. Regrettably, any way I do the math and try to get the salaries to match, it is almost impossible to do, in a way that would give the Heat any incentive. The only way it could be made to work as far as I can tell is to have Miami do a simultaneous sign-and-trade with then-restricted free agent Rajon Rondo. That is a dealbreaker to me. I want Rondo in Boston for the next 15 years.
This leads to the most plausible route: a trade before the February 2010 trade deadline. It goes like this: Wade confirms to Heat management that he is planning to be a free agent in 2010 and that he will likely not return to Miami. He does this as a favor so the team can trade him to get some value for him. However, since Wade is announcing he will test the waters in 2010 even if traded, his market value will not be especially high.
This is where the Cs put together a package of expiring contracts – House, Scal, T. Allen – future no. 1 picks in 2010, 2012, 2014 – and a couple of young prospects from Walker, Pruitt, Giddens, Big Baby. To make the salaries work the Cs need to sign a free agent this off-season, ideally to a one-year deal. If the free agent is close to MLE salary, the Cs would be able to take Marcus Banks off the Heat’s hands, too.
Now there may be other teams that can try to get Wade before the trade deadline as well, but as I go through the list, I am not certain the Heat can get a better package. No team, say the Jazz, for example, is going to trade a legit young star like Deron Williams under contract for a guy who is about to become an unrestricted free agent. And the last thing the Heat wants instead of Wade is a bunch of long-term contracts for mediocre players. Better to let Wade walk then. The Nets could offer Vince Carter, young studs, and better no. 1 picks – NJ has the Dallas 2010 pick among others -- but do the Heat want Carter’s contract and, more important, do the Nets want to give up good no. 1 picks and young studs if they might lose Wade in the summer of 2010? If Wade goes elsewhere, the Nets are fried for a decade. I don’t think they run that risk. Better for the Nets to keep those young studs and high number one picks and try to pry Wade (or James or Yao Ming or Bosh) away in the summer of 2010 as an unrestricted free agent.
So, what do the Heat get by trading Wade to the Cs? They get three no. 1 draft picks, two or three inexpensive young prospects and they dump Banks. They are still very far below the cap in 2010. That is a lot better than losing Wade altogether.
And they could come back in the summer of 2010 and re-sign Wade! At any rate, the team is in Miami, not Duluth. If they do the Cs deal, the Heat will be able to sign two max-contract studs in 2010. They will not be down long.
The risk the Cs take is that Wade may not resign with them in the summer of 2010. Then they have had their clocks cleaned. But that is a risk I would be willing to take, based upon what Wade has been saying about Boston and Rivers. I think Wade re-ups a five year extension through 2015. That takes him to his 33rd birthday. Prime time.
If it works, the Cs will be a league powerhouse and positioned to remain a contender through the decline of KG and PP. Rondo and Wade in the backcourt in their primes, with Ray Allen the third guard. I get goose bumps thinking about it. Yikes!
