LAL/CLE/BOS/ORL - Home court advantage tracking thread!

[klemen4]

I still believe Boston can finish first overall and have home court advantage throughout playoffs. The race for home court advantage will be very close that is why I will daily update the road ahead for top 4 teams:


Standings on Tuesday 10.3.

LAL 50:13 (CLE 2:0,BOS 2:0,ORL 0:2) / No games left with top 3 teams
CLE 49:13 (LAL 0:2,BOS 1:2,ORL 0:1) / Vs. Bos, Vs. Orl, @ Orl
BOS 49:15 (LAL 0:2,CLE 2:1,0RL 2:1) / @ Cle, @ Orl
ORL 46:17 (LAL 2:0,CLE 1:0,BOS 1:2) / Vs. Cle, @ Cle, Vs. Bos


Home Vs. away games / Next 5 games

LAL 8:12 / @HOU,@SAS,DAL,PHI,GSW
CLE 12:8 / @LAC,@PHO,@SAC,NY,ORL
BOS 9:9 / @MIA,MEM,@MIL,@CHI,MIA
ORL 10:10 / CHI,@WAS,UTA,@CLE,@MIL

Now lets look the quality of the opponent teams.That is why I will divide teams in 2 groups:

- Good teams: Top 9 Western teams + top 7 Eastern teams(Bos,Orl,Cle,Atl,Mia,Det,Phi)
- Avarage teams: Other 15 teams


Home games against avarage teams Vs. good teams

LAL 3:5 (DAL,PHI,HOU,DEN,UTA)
CLE 4:8 (ORL,POR,ATL,DAL,DET,SAS,BOS,PHI)
BOS 6:3 (MIA,ATL,MIA)
ORL 7:3 (UTA,BOS,CLE)


Away games against avarage teams Vs. good teams

LAL 6:5 Chi,Okl,Njn,Cha,Mil,Sac / HOU,SAS,DET,ATL,POR
CLE 5:3 Lac,Sac,Njn,Was,Ind / PHO,ORL,PHI
BOS 3:6 Mil,Chi,Mem / MIA,SAS,ORL,ATL,CLE,PHI
ORL 5:4 Was,Mil,Ny,Njn,Mil / CLE,MIA,ATL,HOU


Games against average teams Vs. good teams:

LAL 9:10
CLE 9:11
BOS 9:9
ORL 13:7


Road trips left:

LAL 3 games(POR,HOU,SAS) / 7 games(CHI,OKL,DET,NJN,ATL,CHA,MIL)
CLE 3 games(LAC,PHO,SAC)
BOS /
ORL /

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Schedule wise Orlando has the best schedule with only 10 games left against good teams, 6 of them on the road and also no road trips. I think the road games will decide the final standings because at home all 4 teams are very strong. Also there are 4 games between ORL, CLE, BOS which will count double. LAL are still the favorites, also have tiebreakers over BOS and CLE, but have one 7 game road trip. Also CLE has one really hard 4 games road trip.

It is still all open.

[BillessuR6]

You definitely put some work into this. Thanks!

The crazy part is we only have 25 games left, so every one is important...

[kevin_405]

U are missing 1 important Stat.. how many of these games will KG be missing esp against opponents from this list DEN,MIA,SAS,ORL,ATL,CLE,PHI.

As far as home court throughout the playoffs u can forget it.. I think Cleveland, Orlando and LA have a much better chance than Boston especially considering KG will miss potentially 10 games..

[klemen4]

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=884291

I think KG will miss only tonight game against DEN. Next big game is next friday (2 weeks from injury) against Cle.

[TheChaser]

First off, let me say after reading the material on this board for a while now, I must say that Boston fans are very classy. I'm an Orlando fan, and you guys are the one team that I DON"T want to catch in the second round. Anyways good stuff here. It's gonna be a fun finish.

[DEEP3CL]

That 7 game road swing will tell the rest of our story I'm guessing. Historically we haven't done well in the ATL. The funny thing is those are all teams we could mop up but at the same time slip up and lose to also.

[nonplayerzealot]

That 7 game road swing will tell the rest of our story I'm guessing. Historically we haven't done well in the ATL. The funny thing is those are all teams we could mop up but at the same time slip up and lose to also.

Imo, the travel aspect is the bigger worry than quality of opponents. The schedule maker is probably the toughest opponent during the whole thing. There's only 1 day off before and after the trip to digest 1500+ mile flights from LA to CHI and from MIL back to LA. They didn't schedule CHI, DET, and MIL consecutively even though they're right next to each other. OKC back to DET is about 900 miles by itself.

CHI, OKC, DET, NJ, ATL, CHA, MIL

^ That said, the Lakers have been down with THE PRO-GRAM on 6+ gm trips the last two years (& even in 2006), so I'm more concerned about shorter WC trips and places like ARCO, where they magically decide to play to their fullest potential for one night.

The toughest road trip remaining in terms of the teams themselves is POR, SA, HOU. Interested to see how they respond to that, they'd better take it as a no-nonsense biz trip where they decide not to wait until the 2nd half to hit the gas. That mentality already cost them the first game in SA.

Finally, LOL at us discussing this here, but I guess it does impact the Celtics in the bigger scheme of things.

[klemen4]

Great win last night against Denver. It is really nice to see all stepping up without KG, great movement of the ball, team basketball.

Now 4 "easy" opponents:
@ LAC (We must take this one seriously, play defense)
Vs. IND (No Dunleavy, Granger, Ford(flu?)...easy win)
Vs. DET (They are not the same team once were, easy win)
@ NJN (Had 5 games losing streak, win over PHI...play defense and we will be ok)

Then next friday Cleveland comes to town.

[Geech]

The Cavaliers have the following stretch approaching:
2/26 - Houston - Away
2/27 - SA - Away
3/1 - Atlanta - Away
3/2 - Miami - Away
3/4 - Mil - Home
3/6 - Boston - Away
3/7 - Miami - Home

I hope we go by them by the game on the 6th. After that it'll be awfully tough with only the one game left at their court on April 12th. Home court advantage for the Finals are looking slimmer by the day, but we're in OK shape if we can take care of our own business from here to the 6th.

I think other factors are facing teams on the end of their back-to-backs and how many teams will they face that are still playing to get into the playoffs or for a higher seed. Right now in the East, other than Was, everyone's still in the hunt. In the West, there are 6 teams that are pretty much out of it. Advantage Lakers?

[Red2]

home court is a big deal in terms of winning the eastern confernce but I don't think it's as big a deal in the finals where you have a 2-3-2 format. If we were to get to the finals and we play the lakers and they have home court then we would have to win one of the first two games in LA to have a chance. So if you split you're 1-1 with three games in Boston. It's unlikely we beat them three times in a row but say you win 2 out of 3 then you go back to LA and it's 3-2. The Lakers then have to win both games. I actually think the 2-3-2 format puts tremendous pressure on the team with home court advantage to win all of their games at home. But for a miracle comeback last year we go back to Boston down 2-3 and have to win both games in Boston. How comfortable would we all have felt with that situation? As for the Eastern conference if we meet Cleveland in the finals then we have to win one at their place. That's no small task but I think we can do it. The last time we played there we were in a horrible stretch and I really feel that since then our play has picked up considerably. Guys can see the finish line to the regular season and even though we're short handed most nights, the bench is really coming through

[klemen4]

The Cavaliers have the following stretch approaching:
2/26 - Houston - Away
2/27 - SA - Away
3/1 - Atlanta - Away
3/2 - Miami - Away

I agree, the next 4 Cle games are very important. I hope they lose 2 /4 and if we win all we would have 1 loss less going in game with CLE. With winning that game we would had 2 loses less and had 2:1 in tiebreaker. This is best case scenario, but looking the cle opponents, Hou is the hardest, SAS has no Ginobilli, Atlanta is not in form also MIA is struggling.

We should not forget about ORl, with the easiest schedule and also Alston is a big improvement for them.

[semi-sentient]

Nice thread.

I think right now the Lakers are obviously in control of their own destiny. Their schedule is fairly easy the rest of the way when you take into account that just about every playoff team they face is undermanned at the moment.

PHO, @PHO (No Amare)
@DEN (No Nene)
@HOU, HOU (No T-mac)
@SAS (No Ginobili)

The two games to watch for are the games @POR, where the Lakers seem to have trouble (with or without Oden), so that may just make or break them as far as home court goes.

[MyInsatiableOne]

That 7 game road swing will tell the rest of our story I'm guessing. Historically we haven't done well in the ATL. The funny thing is those are all teams we could mop up but at the same time slip up and lose to also.

Imo, the travel aspect is the bigger worry than quality of opponents. The schedule maker is probably the toughest opponent during the whole thing. There's only 1 day off before and after the trip to digest 1500+ mile flights from LA to CHI and from MIL back to LA. They didn't schedule CHI, DET, and MIL consecutively even though they're right next to each other. OKC back to DET is about 900 miles by itself.

CHI, OKC, DET, NJ, ATL, CHA, MIL

^ That said, the Lakers have been down with THE PRO-GRAM on 6+ gm trips the last two years (& even in 2006), so I'm more concerned about shorter WC trips and places like ARCO, where they magically decide to play to their fullest potential for one night.

The toughest road trip remaining in terms of the teams themselves is POR, SA, HOU. Interested to see how they respond to that, they'd better take it as a no-nonsense biz trip where they decide not to wait until the 2nd half to hit the gas. That mentality already cost them the first game in SA.

Finally, LOL at us discussing this here, but I guess it does impact the Celtics in the bigger scheme of things.

Well put. In a way the C's were lucky this year their annual Feb west coast roadie was split by the ASB, giving them some rest...

[sully00]

Here is an interesting site for different stats, I found trying to find points in the paint numbers.

http://www.teamrankings.com/

A couple of things kind of jumped out at me. The Cavs are kind of paper tiger in all of this at this point. They are only 1-4 against the top 5 teams and they seem very reliant on the home court advantage. That is also 2-3 games less against the top teams than everyone else

ORL has been very good against the top 5 going 5-2

Boston has owned the East losing only to CLE as far as playoff contenders are concerned and 4 games overall. Boston has had the strongest schedule the Spurs have had the weakest of the top 5 teams.

After last night I think it is safe to say that this group of 5, LA, BOS, CLE, ORL, and SA is far more relevant, these 5 teams should beat everyone else they play.

I think it most important for CLE to get home court, as much as we panic about the first two rounds last year we were able to go on the road and win in DET and LAL, I think that is behind this team now. If you don't have it don't let it go 7.

[MyInsatiableOne]

Good post sully...I've thought all year CLE wasn't as good as their record showed...a force and our biggest competition in the East, yes, but I still think we're better!

[TonyMontana]

You definitely put some work into this. Thanks!

The crazy part is we only have 25 games left, so every one is important...

[sully00]

Good post sully...I've thought all year CLE wasn't as good as their record showed...a force and our biggest competition in the East, yes, but I still think we're better!

They may well be that good they just have a little bit more proving to do. With KG out it kind of flips the script as I can't imagine the chances of them rushing him back for that Fri/Sun CLE/ORL at home are very good.

[MyInsatiableOne]

^Agree, they need to prove it...I also don't think we'll necessarily rush KG back for those games...the C's would rather have him at full strength in the playoffs to beat those teams than not...

[klemen4]

Well Orlando lost in Chicago, not that unexpected because Chi form is improving also MIller and Salmons are good players. Because I dont have CHI in my calculation as good team I decided to add all away opponents in section "Away games against avarage teams Vs. good teams" that we can better see in which away games against lets say CHI, WAS..there is a posibilitie of a loss.

I also decided to add section "Next 5 games" to the column "Home games Vs. away games" that we can have a better look what is ahead in next week.

LAC tonight, last game of the 4 games road trip...Im a little scared of this one(No Scal, No KG) but as long as we take them seriously, slow the tempo, play defense we will be ok.

[Avalanche]

If the playoffs started today, our road to the championship would likely be
Detroit - Orlando - Cleveland - LA

we need to get that top spot