RealGM

Before the days of the new big three this board would be filled with draft talk. Well I have something we might want to keep an eye on. I have a strong feeling that the Celtics would be the next team Tyler Hansbrough will play for. If you look at it he fills a need as a back-up PF/Center type to take the place for Big Baby Davis who maybe playing his last games for the C seeing how he might command more money as a free agent then what the Celtics would be willing to spend. I get the feeling from talking to someone who was at the final four the past weekend and we started to talk about where would Tyler Hansbrough go in the draft? Most GM thinks Hansbrough will be at best a Marc Madson type of player. I was told by this person (who is well connected in the inner circle of the NBA) that Danny Ainge is high on Hansbrough and thinks is would be a much better NBA player then most people think. If you look at it, this makes since, Danny Ainge has always like season players coming out of college at the bottom half of the draft. See Delonte West, Ryan Gomes, Leon Powe, Tony Allen. All of those guys played 3 plus years in college. But beside that, Hansbrough would be a great fit for a team like Boston and his a player who can come in and play some meaningful minutes.

Assuming Hansbrough falls in his draft position, which I think he will, this could be a nice pick-up. He'd be better than Davis, especially in terms of rebounding and defense...

by all accounts I think he will drop in the draft. I've heard he might drop to the 2nd round which to me sound a little more like GMs not showing their hand because a team like the Spurs, Dallas, and also New Orleans could use a banger like Hansbrough.

I never understood why a kid staying in school for 4 years causes his value to drop so much...they say it all the time and except for exceptions (Duncan, Battier, some others) it's the case...so weird...

MyInsatiableOne wrote:I never understood why a kid staying in school for 4 years causes his value to drop so much...they say it all the time and except for exceptions (Duncan, Battier, some others) it's the case...so weird...

I understand it, the longer you stay in school it gives teams a much large simple to see your game and either fall in or out of love with your game. Whereas if you come out after your 1st or 2nd year the word upside is often used because GMs/Scouts really don't have much of a sample to see what type of player your going to be. So nowadays it hurt your draft stock if you stay to your senior year. I personnal can't tell you what type of player Hansbrough is going to be when it comes to the NBA. I think with any player it all depends on the team and coach you end up playing for.

^But it hurts your draft stock by giving an accurate depiction of your game? And what about kids who stay to win, like Hansbrough, Noah, etc? I totally understand and agree with what you're saying, but what it really means is the kids who come out too early dupe the teams into drafting them and wasting a high pick and loads of $$ on them...good for the players, bad for the teams...

I personally doubt he'll fall past the 20's but it would be a pleasant surprise. He definitely has some skills and the right attitude. Also, he never blinks.

Cyclical wrote:I personally doubt he'll fall past the 20's but it would be a pleasant surprise. He definitely has some skills and the right attitude. Also, he never blinks.

Honestly I think the fact that he's known as a "hard-working banging/hustling white kid" is going to work against him...which could be good for us if he falls enough for us to draft him!

Hansborough is not going to be as effective playing the 5 defensively as Glen Davis and I don't see him being as good defensively at the 4 as Leon Powe. I could understand it if Ainge was convinced he would be losing one or both of the current bigs, but the draft is before free agency, so I have no idea how he'll know what the market will bear.

I'd be far more interested in seeing whether or not a pick in the top 10 could be acquired in some way, shape or form so the team could take a stab at Ed Davis or Jeff Teague - both fill need positions for the future and have high potential to develop into big time players down the road.

Love Hansborough's game and I think he is right in the Davis/Powe mold of underrated undersized 4's - his true measurements will determine a lot in terms of late 2nd or early 1st round selection. But i'd never bet against a player that works as hard as Hansborough AND has the makings of a quality NBA skill set, (15-17 ft jumper/rebounder/hustle stats) He is bound to succeed.

I'd say he is likely to make an impact on the Haslem/Scola level - give him 2-3 years to grow into his role and he'll be a team every winning organization wants to have.

^If he's going to be as good as Haslem/Scola, why would we not want to try and get him??

Might be a good value pick for us. When does Scalabrine contract run out again? Ainge will take a college star (low upside guy) to bolster his roster on the cheap. As he feels that these guys can contribute to an NBA team right away. I don't think it will take him years to contribute either.

I do agree though he might not better then Powe or BBD .. I could absolutely see him falling to us even in this weak draft.

I love Hansborough but he didn't stay four years for any reason besides the fact that nobody would ever tell him he was a first round draft pick. He isn't falling nobody has ever really viewed him as anything but a guy in that 20-30 range that might slip to the second round.

I think he is going to be a much better pro than his draft value is saying but their is little chance he is going to be a star player. Most teams put very little value in drafting and developing role players. I have heard different scouts talk about this if a guy can't project as a star teams don't have an interest they will take the guy with the million dollar body and the 10 cent brain over the Ryan Gomes. The thinking is they can buy that guy in FA they don't have to develop him but as rare as they are teams want Josh Howard late in the first round.

Boston doesn't have a first round pick so there is little chance he is falling to 57-58 or whatever he would have to unless Boston acquires a pick he isn't coming here. I wouldn't rule it out but I just think we have undersized PF covered.

I don't think a guy like Hansbrough hurt his draft position at all; guys who hurt their draft position are guys who show a lot of flash and potential but don't develop that much - maybe you could argue that Chase Budinger is a guy like that.

Meanwhile Hansbrough is more of a low ceiling guy who, you know what you're getting with him; I think he only helps himself by refinine his outside shot while staying in school.

I think he'd be a nice pickup; but remember, we're looking at the bottom quarter (or eighth even) of the draft rather than the bottom half. I suppose we can always buy a 2nd rounder. Actually, do we have any extra #2's? I figure Hansbrough is high 2nd round at worst, probably late 1st.

I just checked, we don't have any extra picks...and I am shocked to realize that Budinger is STILL an underclassman. He's still projected late lotto, so I guess he didn't hurt himself too much.

I think he is going to be a much better pro than his draft value is saying but their is little chance he is going to be a star player. Most teams put very little value in drafting and developing role players. I have heard different scouts talk about this if a guy can't project as a star teams don't have an interest they will take the guy with the million dollar body and the 10 cent brain over the Ryan Gomes. The thinking is they can buy that guy in FA they don't have to develop him but as rare as they are teams want Josh Howard late in the first round.

Teams are doing the right thing, IMHO. Sure they blow it but you win with stars in this league. History favours the bold. Why spend a first round pick on the next Darius Songalia..? Everyone once in while they draft a "college stud" like JJ Reddick and it ends in misery. People who harsh on teams for picking high upside guys conviently ignore the Lattners, Langdons, Reddicks of the world..

Pete

dejuan blair if he falls to late late 1st rd?

Doesn't Minnesota have our 1st this year? We're not going to get Hansborough or Blair at #58 pick, that's for sure.

if he's there in the 2nd round I think you have to take him. I love his hustle and fire but at the pro level I think glen davis is and will be a better player. hansborough is going to get a lot of shots blocked. He has a place in the league though because of his hustle

I don't think it is teams (plural with an "S") that overvalue upside and athleticism. What happens is that everyone knows what Hansborough brings to the table and probably has him valued anywhere between 16 and 30 on their draft board.

Meanwhile, someone like Rondo (one year in school, crazy athletic talent) was probably down in the 30s on plenty of people's draft boards, but 5th on DA's. Basically, there is a greater variation in projections the less a guy has played. Then it only takes one team overvaluing a talent for him to go way too high. The folks like Gomes, Boozer, etc. get pushed down a bit but still end up within about 5 spots of where they were projected. Rarely do you see those guys slip the way a Gerald Green or Rashard Lewis did...

I see Hansborough as Tony Battie in his prime... which is actually what this team needs.

He's got heart, length, and a good face up 15 footer.

Teams may not draft role-players to develop them, but they sure as hell should do so - it costs a lot more money down the line to pay a free agent and you don't get the benefit of developing them in your system.

Hansborough would be a great pick up if Boston determines that they can't afford to pay both Powe and Davis and decide that letting one go and bringing in Hansborough for a fraction of the cost is a better value proposition - could happen.

Anyways, I love the kid and he's going to be in the league a long time and play a key role on some great teams before his career is through..