Boston/Orlando: the stat that matters most

[Gant]

The single most important stat in the Celtics/Magic series is Kendrick Perkins' fouls.

If Perk gets in foul trouble early the Celtics are in huge trouble (particularly with Leon out).

Unlike many teams Boston plays Howard one on one. This keeps the Magic's squadron of long distance dead-eyes from constantly getting open looks. But if Perkins is on the bench the whole dynamic changes. Baby, Scal, or (yikes) Mikki Moore would have to cover big Dwight resulting in collapsing help and holes all over the Celtic perimeter defense.

If Perkins can play smart, not have the calls go against him and stay in the game, Boston will win this series.

Also Perk had that little shoulder tweak at the end of game 7 when he got clobbered by Brad Miller. He better be ok.

[Bad-Thoma]

The single most important stat in the Celtics/Magic is Kendrick Perkins' fouls.

If Perk gets in foul trouble early the Celtics are in huge trouble (particularly with Leon out).

Unlike many teams Boston plays Howard one on one. This keeps the Magic's squadron of long distance dead-eyes from constantly getting open looks. But if Perkins is on the bench the whole dynamic changes. Baby, Scal, or (yikes) Mikki Moore would have to cover big Dwight resulting in collapsing help and holes all over the Celtic perimeter defense.

If Perkins can play smart, not have the calls go against him and stay in the game, Boston will win this series.

Also Perk had that little shoulder tweak at the end of game 7 when he got clobbered by Brad Miller. He better be ok.

I'll co-sign this. If Perk can't play extended minutes we are in some serious trouble.

[Cigamodnalro]

Expect for the Magic to try to exploit this, early and often. Especially if Pierce and Ray decide to keep Magic 3 point shooters honest, Dwight will be pounding it inside at KP from the opening tip. If he gets a couple of calls his way early, the whole game dynamic changes.

[GWVan]

The Celtics will need to continually drive at Howard - getting him in foul trouble can win games for us. We will really miss Powe in this series. We need someone with some moves underneath to work Howard. I don't see Baby or Perk doing it. Is McHale available?

[humblebum]

Ya, this is soo true. I think it's important that Doc makes a starting lineup adjustment in this series. That being moving Scalabrine to the starting unit and allowing Davis to come off the bench to defend Howard. Let Scal, Pierce and (ugh) Moore defend the Magic PF's and let Perk and Davis check Howard. Personally I'm all for the old strategy of letting Howard try to beat you by his lonesome. No double teams. Let him get dunks when he has the position. But shut down the perimeter. Stick with the shooters and just let Perk and Davis make Howard work for his baskets. Then late in the game, hopefully the perimeter players for the Magic are stymied and then you throw some doubles at Howard. That'd be my strategy at least.

[Mahoney_jr]

I think we will double Dwight more now as Nelson is out. Rondo will freelance and try to disrupt post offense.

[humblebum]

The problem with doubling though is it really allows guys like Shard, Redick, Turk, and Rafer to get their offense going. If there is one thing the Magic do really well it's to move the ball around the perimeter with the pass to find the open shooter. If the Celtics are overhelping and out of position the Magic will take advantage.

I'd much rather take my chances with Howard shooting over Perk and Davis. Let him get 40 if you can really slow down or stop their perimeter game.

But I'm sure you're right Mahoney... the Celtics are definitely going to use the double team a lot and hope that the Magic are either unable to find the open man or that they'll miss some shots. Worst case scenario for me is that the Magic shooters get hot AND Howard is getting his offense against doubles, on the offensive boards, and with the alley oop.

[cloverleaf]

The single most important stat in this series is the number of operational shoulders each team's starting center has. If the number's not 2 for the C's, they're in trouble.

[DorfonCeltics]

Perk is definitely the most important player in this series for the C's. There probably will be a game or two where he gets into foul trouble. I really like the idea of Scal starting to match up with Rashard so you have Baby to back up Perk and cover Dwight. I think Perk's shoulder is going to be ok. In the past when he has seriously injured it he has immediately left the game. Last night he stayed in and made those two huge free throws. He'll get some treatment, a massage, and some rest today. If it comes down to it I'm sure he'll take a shot. Perk prides himself as one of the only guys in the league who can guard Howard one on one. He's not going to miss this series.

[chakdaddy]

Ya, this is soo true. I think it's important that Doc makes a starting lineup adjustment in this series. That being moving Scalabrine to the starting unit and allowing Davis to come off the bench to defend Howard.

I was about to post something like this. Davis can play Howard a little bit with his strength. But anyone else on the roster will be a disaster - so we need to have 1 of the 2 available at all times to guard Howard. A little more small ball makes sense.

[humblebum]

Ya, small ball, as Doc has stated, is simply an unfortunate necessity at this point. The Celtics won't be able to stop the Magic or really even slow them down a whole lot IMO. The Magic really control their own destiny here. If they execute there offense and Howard leads them to play good defense they'll win this series. But if Doc can squeeze every ounce of basketball out of his guys and the Magic tighten up a bit the Celtics can steal this series. There's no question that the Celtics have the mental toughness and the better end of game closers from an offensive perspective. So the onus is really on the Magic but Doc with smart coaching and some solid performances off the bench (Marbury and House need to play well in this series) can help lead this team to an upset victory. Moving Davis to the bench would also just help to add some offensive talent there and Marbury, House, Davis is actually a decent trio to have off the bench from an offensive perspective.

[Gant]

I agree with the thinking here.

If you remember, Scal was actually the back up power forward until he got hurt. (Big Baby was 4th string behind Leon.)

Scalabrine's playing better again so him moving back to the starting spot with Garnett out makes sense. They really do have to play with foul allotment vs. Dwight Howard in mind.