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Dwight Howard is overrated on the offensive end. His absence didn't seem to hurt the Magic against Philly.

His offensive stat lines are a product of playing in an offense that complements him perfectly. By a mixture of various statistics however, Rashard Lewis is generally shown to be more influential to the Magic's success, at least on the offensive end, and that is even ignoring many of the statistics I cite below.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

The only offensive stat category where Dwight Howard seems to perform better in Magic wins versus losses is "assists."

The Magic seem to run into clear trouble, however, when Rashard Lewis shoots relatively poorly and turns the ball over more than twice per game.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

The Magic are 26-5 when he turns the ball over only once. They are undefeated (18-0) when he shoots better than 50% from long range. They are 8-1 when he scores at least 24 points, with the only loss coming against us, they are 5-0 when he takes more than 8 FT attempts. They are a .500 team when he fails to score at least 13 points. They are 2-4, including two home losses, when Rashard Lewis picks up at least five fouls. They are 1-3 when he has more than five assists with only a victory over the Kings who started Mikki Moore. In fairness, the three losses were road losses.

When Dwight Howard scores more than 32 points, the Magic are 1-2 with only a five point home victory versus the Bobcats. In fairness they are 7-6 when he scores less than 14 points. They are 14-9 when he has 0 assists, but 10-2 when he posts at least three assists with the two losses coming against the Mavs and Cavs. They are 10-1 when he has more than four fouls and is limited to less than 37 minutes played, including victories over the Lakers and Spurs and a road win versus the Bobcats where he only scored 13 points, which speaks against the notion that he is an elite player. Offensive rebounding is arguably key for us, as the Magic were 22-3 when Dwight pulled down at least 12 defensive rebounds. The Magic are also only 10-9 when he blocks less than two shots.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

Re: Turkoglu...

They seem to be a better team when he is hot from long range, but his shooting does not appear to be vital. They are 6-7 when he picks up at least five fouls.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ohe01.html

Convention says to shut down Dwight Howard and get him in foul trouble. The key though is to shut down Rashard Lewis, and to get him and Turk in foul trouble. With KG, we match up perfectly because he can shut down Rashard Lewis while allowing us to play everyone else one on one. Without him the matchup is tougher but still very doable.

Re: Rafer Alston,

They are 7-7 when he attempts more than 10 field goal attempts. He is not a natural leader and has become more inefficient with age. They are 4-4 when he fails to hit at least one three pointer. They are 2-4 with home losses to the Pistons and Knicks when he makes at least six field goals. A false sense of security means good things for us.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

The SGs...

Pietrus...

He might not be great, but he is the guy that can kill us. Magic were 21-4 when he shot > than40% from long range this season, and he can potentially shoot over our SGs. They are 24-1 when he shoots at least 40% from the field and hits more than one three pointer, with their only loss coming against the Cavs. They are 9-2 when he pulls down more than four rebounds. They are 5-1 when he picks up at least two steals, 11-1 when he scores more than 14 points.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

Courney Lee. The Magic were 8-0 when he hit more than 2 threes, 11-0 when he attempted more than 11 threes - regardless of %. Its interesting, because with Lee it doesn't seem to matter so much whether he is scoring or not turning the ball over, only if he is shooting threes.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

Redick...he can't shoot over us unless House is our SG, but his shooting doesn't seem to correlate so much with the Magic's success...

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

ETA - lastly - While I am not the biggest Scal supporter, I just noticed that we were 17-0 in the regular season when he played at least 13 minutes.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... &year=2009

I was posting in the game thread that I'd like to see the Celt's make Dwight beat them, play him 1 up whether he scores 10 or 50 and try to keep the shooters from ever establishing a real rythm (easier said than done w/a team as good as the Magic). The Celt's predominately used that strategy against Wilt in the 60's who was a much better offensive player than Dwight is to great success. Try to keep them from playing team basketball by staying with the shooters on the perimeter, let Dwight go one on one all night. The trouble is obviously keeping Perk out of foul trouble so he can be the one manning up Dwight, but I think if he plays smart it'll be easier to stay out of trouble one on one than in a crowd. The Bulls would have killed this strategy with their penetration, the magic aren't inept at penetration but aren't as skilled handling the ball as the bulls were.

Some more C's stats -

We were 28-2 when Rondo shot better than 57% from the field, with only two road losses.

We were 20-2 when Rondo put up at least 12 FGAs

We were 25-5 when Rondo did not pull down a single offensive rebound, and was presumably getting back on D.

We were 13-6 when PP shot better than 53% from the field, 9-3 when he put up at least 20 FGAs, 13-3 when he hit at least 3 three pointers.

We were 24-4 when he pulled down less than 4 defensive boards, and was presumably getting back on O. However, many of these games were alongside KG.

We were 13-0 when PP racked up more than 5 assists. 22-2 with more than 4 assists. Many of these games were with KG.

Not surprisingly, we were 4-6 when PP turned the ball over more than 4 times. Conclusion: we need him passing the ball and not dribbling with it so much.

We were 6-6 when Ray Allen took more than 17 FGAs, most of these games were with KG.

We were also 6-6 when Ray took at least 9 3PAs, losing once when he even hit five of them.

We were 17-4 when Ray got to the line at least five times.

We were 12-9 when Ray turned the ball over three times

We were 14-0 when Tony Allen came up with more than one steal, despite his 27 TOs during those games.

We were 17-2 when Tony Allen scored at least 10 points, despite his 37 (something like that, I don't feel like recounting) TOs during those games.

We are only 8-2 when Tony plays and doesn't turn the ball over (and likely is too reluctant to be aggressive)

With Eddie House, there is nothing that sticks out unexpectedly.

We are 23-3 when perk pulls down at least 7 defensive boards. We are 4-5 when he pulls down less than 3, and most of those games were alongside KG.

We were 20-4 when Perk blocked at least four shots.

We were 9-3 when Perk had at least 4 TOs. We were 13-3 when he scored three points or less.

We were 19-3 when Baby took at least 8 FGAs. We were 21-4 when he hit at least 4 FGAs. We were 18-1 when he pulled down at least four defensive rebounds, 9-1 when he had at least two steals. We were 16-2 when he turned the ball over at least twice. 12-2 when he racked up at least five fouls. We need him to be aggressive.

Holy research, nj Threrf