Using expirings now versus at deadline
Posted: Fri Jul 3, 2009 6:18 pm
Looks like Ray ain't moving. But if the front office wanted to, we could probably get a good veteran right now for our other expirings: Scalabrine, TA, and now House. Together, they can be exchanged for a salary of a little over 11 million. Throw in Pruitt and/or Giddens, the returning salary could be 12.3 million or more. Add a pick like our 2011 1st, we could maybe get a fringe All-Star.
Ainge said he thinks he can pick up bargains for the minimum, well, let's see him do that. Those bargains will mostly exist this summer and fall, not at the trade deadline, so we couldn't sub in minimum bargains for our expirings at the deadline. Also, waiting until the deadline gives the incoming player a measly two months to blend in, trading the expirings now allows for an entire year of added chemistry. The only downside is that certain teams will be a little more desperate to clear cap space at the trade deadline, but then again we won't be the only team with expirings at that time. Well also, we very well might have different needs in February than now.
In no order, here are some (realistic or not) possibilities if we went for that kind of deal now, some costing more and some costing less: Jamal Crawford (yuck), Jason Terry (quite unlikely), Rip Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince, Stephen Jackson or Corey Maggette, Shane Battier, Troy Murphy or Dunleavy or Ford or Tinsley or Foster (varying degrees of value), Baron Davis, Zach Randolph, Tyson Chandler or Posey, Nick Collison, Samuel Dalembert, Barbosa or Jason Richardson (would require all of the above expirings plus Pruitt), Calderon (totally unlikely and unnecessary), Jamison (unlikely).
Now, will the pool of players on non-expiring contracts playing for non-contending teams become better closer to the trade deadline? Not really. The pool will be about the same, the only difference would be the minute chance that for some of the better options, instead of also giving up a 2011 1st we might only need to send the expirings. Is that worth the chemistry disadvantage of waiting 'til February and the risk of other contenders with expirings snatching up the best options in the meantime?
Or is there another reason for not doing a trade like that? Perhaps people mistakenly think we shouldn't take on overpaid contracts because we have some mythical shot at the big names in 2010. Well, we don't. Any other reason?
Ainge said he thinks he can pick up bargains for the minimum, well, let's see him do that. Those bargains will mostly exist this summer and fall, not at the trade deadline, so we couldn't sub in minimum bargains for our expirings at the deadline. Also, waiting until the deadline gives the incoming player a measly two months to blend in, trading the expirings now allows for an entire year of added chemistry. The only downside is that certain teams will be a little more desperate to clear cap space at the trade deadline, but then again we won't be the only team with expirings at that time. Well also, we very well might have different needs in February than now.
In no order, here are some (realistic or not) possibilities if we went for that kind of deal now, some costing more and some costing less: Jamal Crawford (yuck), Jason Terry (quite unlikely), Rip Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince, Stephen Jackson or Corey Maggette, Shane Battier, Troy Murphy or Dunleavy or Ford or Tinsley or Foster (varying degrees of value), Baron Davis, Zach Randolph, Tyson Chandler or Posey, Nick Collison, Samuel Dalembert, Barbosa or Jason Richardson (would require all of the above expirings plus Pruitt), Calderon (totally unlikely and unnecessary), Jamison (unlikely).
Now, will the pool of players on non-expiring contracts playing for non-contending teams become better closer to the trade deadline? Not really. The pool will be about the same, the only difference would be the minute chance that for some of the better options, instead of also giving up a 2011 1st we might only need to send the expirings. Is that worth the chemistry disadvantage of waiting 'til February and the risk of other contenders with expirings snatching up the best options in the meantime?
Or is there another reason for not doing a trade like that? Perhaps people mistakenly think we shouldn't take on overpaid contracts because we have some mythical shot at the big names in 2010. Well, we don't. Any other reason?