RealGM

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837

This is perhaps the single greatest factor in the NBA. If the salary cap drops to $50 million, lux to $60, then teams such at the knicks won't be able to sign two stars next year.

Don't think that's good.

This is incredibly dangerous for the NBA and the celts. If Boston wants to replace Ray allen with a like salary player the lux tax implications are enormous. Right now, the celts paid roughly $8 million on lux tax on a $80 million payroll. If the Lux tax fall to $60 million, then the Celtics, which be on the hook for $20 mil in lux tax...WOW

If this lux tax and salary cap tanks in 2010, there will be an incredible incentive for teams to remain under the cap. Teams that can't get under the lux tax (which would include many more teams if it is lowered by $10 million) would then be forced to pay.

That creates a windfall for teams under the tax.

You might see bargains in the free agent class, but some franchises could be destroyed by this.

Edit: Right now, 16 teams are above $60 mil for payroll for coming year.

Well, if the salary cap drops, so do the max contracts...

We will be over 80 million this season. But we have 30 million in expiring contracts, so it won`t be a big problem for us, IMO. The only thing is that we probably won`t trade Ray at the deadline because I don`t see us taking back huge contracts in a situation like this...

Boston only has $44MM in committed dollars for the '10/'11 season. Granted, that assumes Rondo just accepts the qualifying offer (unlikely) and Ray Allen is unsigned, but at least we have flexibility. I think it rules out our realistic chances at a 2010/2011 max contract player, but I think Ainge is going to do everything he can to hitch his wagon onto the Kevin Durant train come 2011/2012 anyways.

How do you know the luxury tax would fall that much? The whole idea of the tax is to punish the highest few payroll teams. If more than half the teams in the NBA are over the tax, it sort of defeats the purpose, right?

The NBA sent out that memo and ESPN has reported the luxury tax numbers. I would bet we would see an amended luxury tax/salary cap amount next year.

Otherwise you financially the teams over the tax threshold are screwed. No one could have foreseen this condition.

Teams and players alike will want to amend it. And NBA teams might use it as a way to get the Union to agree to a future CBA