10 things- prepreseason

[Gant]

1) A Big Name Free Agent Next Summer?

Whether it's Wade or someone else... On the free agent question there is only one thing to remember: At first glance it might seem like a longshot but the Celtics honchos think it's plausible. They've been targeting this for a long time.


2) The Knee

Bill Simmons tried to throw a gummy bear into the cogs of the coming season with his energetic tweet about OMG STAPLES! in Garnett's knee, but where did that come from? Does anyone have any solid information about either the surgery or how the big guy is looking right now? All I've heard is vague second hand rumors.

Maybe Sportsguy's right. Or maybe not.


3) Rondo

I don't understand the people who rank this guy so low among point guards. Did he not just outplay Derrick Rose (who was stellar himself) head to head? Does he not obliterate Devin Harris and Steve Nash every single time? He also plays Billups and Parker to a standstill.

Going into a game I never worry about the point guard match up. If anything I worry about the opposing point guard. Rondo's top 5 now and threatening to move higher.


4) Less Minutes For 3 People You Know

The Big Three will be playing less and this time Doc means it. Last year they wanted to play Pierce, Allen and Garnett significantly fewer minutes but the injury tsunami drowned the frontcourt (at one point forcing Bill Walker to play power forward). This year's bench is deep. The Big Three should all average in the low 30's or less.


5) Big Baby

I don't know if you heard that recent interview with Paul Pierce, but he raved about how good Big Baby looked. "He looks GOOOOOD." Mr. Baby has dramatically slimmed down and should be much quicker. He's once again in a contract year and is going to be way better this season.


6) Big Bench

Back on the minutes thing- Sportsguy also tweeted that the Celtics signing of Rasheed, Baby, and Shelden Williams was further proof of the dire state of Garnett's health. Well it could also be interpreted as further proof the Celtics really are committed to lessen those minutes.


7) Medium Bench

Marquis is the neoPosey, giving you all this:
*He allows Eddie House to stay on the floor more since he can bring the ball up and cover a variety of guys on defense.
* He rests Pierce.
* He rests Ray.
* He shreds the opposing defense with his drives further opening shots for the green bombardiers.


8) Small Bench

Right now it's Eddie House and no one else. I forsee Lester Hudson making the team but spending his winter in the great state of Maine. By the way just as Pierce lauded Big Baby, Rondo lauded Lester.

Go Red Claws!


9) More on Marquis

Does anyone else feel the Celtics might have lucked out when Grant Hill said "No thanks" and the Celtics ended up with Daniels? This is just like two years ago when Reggie Miller declined, opening the door for Posey.


10) Nine

There might be more but nine guys will get regular and significant minutes: Rondo, Ray Allen, Pierce, Garnett, Perkins, Wallace, Daniels, Baby, and House. That's written in something approaching the hardness of stone.

With the Minute Limitation Edict solidly in place uneven playing time could go to practically anyone else: Scalabrine, Giddens, Walker, Tony Allen... and depending on the condition of The Knee, Shelden Williams.




Finally, a prediction: Delonte West will not play the season opener against his old team due to being very very suspended.

Just a little while longer to camp. I miss hoops so much it hurts.

[TheMartian]

Great stuff as always Gant. Can't wait for the season to start.

[cloverleaf]

I think Doc starts his season by looking at who he wants in his playoff rotation--and he's very happy with that nine. Sure, he has Scal and Williams as injury backups and probably hasn't ruled out that Walker could be an injury backup by the year's end too.

Meanwhile he'll humor Danny and give his old guys some rest by developing and showcasing a player here or there, but in his mind he's already got his rotation and his injury-emergencies lined up.

[Jammer]

1) A Big Name Free Agent Next Summer?

Whether it's Wade or someone else... On the free agent question there is only one thing to remember: At first glance it might seem like a longshot but the Celtics honchos think it's plausible. They've been targeting this for a long time.

Don't see it without a sign and trade of an existing rotation player/players from among Rajon, Paul, Ray, KG, Rasheed, Davis, Marquis, Perk. There won't be cap room, and there won't be any other salary to trade for a free agent. The MLE is already "promised" (hush, promises are illegal) to Marquis Daniels.

2) The Knee

Bill Simmons tried to throw a gummy bear into the cogs of the coming season with his energetic tweet about OMG STAPLES! in Garnett's knee, but where did that come from? Does anyone have any solid information about either the surgery or how the big guy is looking right now? All I've heard is vague second hand rumors.

Maybe Sportsguy's right. Or maybe not. After the lame excuses for KG's delay in returning last year, I trust nothing. However, they have been a little too optimistic for my tastes given the length of time KG sat out, the benefits of sitting KG out of training camp and the first 4 to 6 pre-season games, and the gimp KG had while running the floor last November and December that no one made mention of (I think one other poster noticed he was having trouble running the floor).


3) Rondo

I don't understand the people who rank this guy so low among point guards. Did he not just outplay Derrick Rose (who was stellar himself) head to head? Does he not obliterate Devin Harris and Steve Nash every single time? He also plays Billups and Parker to a standstill.
How could anyone not notice this?

Going into a game I never worry about the point guard match up. If anything I worry about the opposing point guard. Rondo's top 5 now and threatening to move higher.


4) Less Minutes For 3 People You Know

The Big Three will be playing less and this time Doc means it. Last year they wanted to play Pierce, Allen and Garnett significantly fewer minutes but the injury tsunami drowned the frontcourt (at one point forcing Bill Walker to play power forward). This year's bench is deep. The Big Three should all average in the low 30's or less. About friggin time.


5) Big Baby

I don't know if you heard that recent interview with Paul Pierce, but he raved about how good Big Baby looked. "He looks GOOOOOD." Mr. Baby has dramatically slimmed down and should be much quicker. He's once again in a contract year and is going to be way better this season.
I guess we can't call him Fatty Davis anymore.


6) Big Bench

Back on the minutes thing- Sportsguy also tweeted that the Celtics signing of Rasheed, Baby, and Shelden Williams was further proof of the dire state of Garnett's health. Well it could also be interpreted as further proof the Celtics really are committed to lessen those minutes.


7) Medium Bench

Marquis is the neoPosey, giving you all this:
*He allows Eddie House to stay on the floor more since he can bring the ball up and cover a variety of guys on defense.
* He rests Pierce.
* He rests Ray.
* He shreds the opposing defense with his drives further opening shots for the green bombardiers.


8) Small Bench

Right now it's Eddie House and no one else. I forsee Lester Hudson making the team but spending his winter in the great state of Maine. By the way just as Pierce lauded Big Baby, Rondo lauded Lester.

Go Red Claws!
Can't wait for Lester (if he makes the team) and the Red Claws to go up against Steph Marbury and the Utah Flash.

9) More on Marquis

Does anyone else feel the Celtics might have lucked out when Grant Hill said "No thanks" and the Celtics ended up with Daniels? NOOO. This is just like two years ago when Reggie Miller declined, opening the door for Posey.


10) Nine

There might be more but nine guys will get regular and significant minutes: Rondo, Ray Allen, Pierce, Garnett, Perkins, Wallace, Daniels, Baby, and House. That's written in something approaching the hardness of stone.Yep.

With the Minute Limitation Edict solidly in place uneven playing time could go to practically anyone else: Scalabrine, Giddens, Walker, Tony Allen... and depending on the condition of The Knee, Shelden Williams.




Finally, a prediction: Delonte West will not play the season opener against his old team due to being very very suspended. Hopefully.

Just a little while longer to camp. I miss hoops so much it hurts.

[return2glory]

Great post Gant. I love 10 things. I agree with all ten.

# 1. I also believe we have a real chance of landing Wade.

#2. The Knee is going to be the key to the season. I like the fact that the team isn't rushing KG back. Will the additions of Sheed and Sheldon and the resiging of BBD, we have to luxury to bring KG back slowly. I heard there is a chance he might not play on back to back nights in the beginning. That's ok, Sheed should be able to fill in well.

#4. The Big 3 need to stay fresh for the playoffs and their minutes will be cut down as you mentioned. With the signing of Daniels and Sheed, all of the the 3 can afford to sit a little longer. Signing Sheed and Daniels was like signing 5 players in 2 since they both can play multi positions.

#5. Can BBD play SF? Can he play C? Who cares? People forget BBD can play period. The guy is a very good ball player. He along with the play of Rondo and Perkins were the reason why we beat the Bulls and took the Magic to 7 without KG and Leon. I look for a slimmed down BBD to be even better this season.

#'s 6-8 . This touches on the bench. The signings of Daniels and Sheed are huge. Also Williams is better than Mikki Moore. BBD this year should be better than BBD of 2009. Also Walker and Giddens should be playing with more confidence, if they get a chance to play. We still have Scal and TA who are capable players.

#10. I've beening saying this for a while now, I think Hudson is going to suprise a lot of people. He might not get the chance to play much this season, but the guy is a gifted player IMO. It's great to hear Rondo raving about him.

Go Celtics. Can't wait for preseason.

[hairybyrd]

Nice post. This is a good analysis of the 10 things dancing around in Ainge and River' heads and, in no particular order, the most relevant Celtic dialogue. I agree with almost everything but, for the sake of conversation, here are a few more things...

1. I like Wade but I also like the idea of keeping the team the way it is and picking-up a solid mid-level player and a draft pick next year. Maybe a few minor trades.

3. Great point. I would rank him as the #3 PG behind Paul and DWilliams.

4. True Dat (BankNorth Garden)

5/6. Two reasons I'm less worried about "the knee". We have 3 quality starting big men with Perk, Wallace and Baby even without KG for days at a time. Don't sleep on Shelden Williams. Good call.

10. Completely agree. We're playing this group of 9 until someone gets hurt. The Celts have the skill, athleticism and/or bbiq to always replenish the roster. Our third string would be Shelden, Scal, TA, Giddins and Hudson - so, that's impressive.

On a side note, I really hope Walker gets some minutes this season because he's one of those guys that rises to the level of competition and needs to play more with the starters than the subs. Midway through the second quarter I'm looking at a line-up of Rondo, Walker, Daniels, KG and Perk. That line-up would be ferocious defensively and set the record for easy layups and dunks in half a quarter.

[Scalamental]

9. Not that I don't wish Marquis the best or think he will bring something valuable off the bench with his scoring, but I feel like he's our worst team defender.

[greenmachine_2849]

9. Not that I don't wish Marquis the best or think he will bring something valuable off the bench with his scoring, but I feel like he's our worst team defender.

I'm concerned about Daniels as well, but more from the angle that I don't think we should be depending on this guy to lessen the minutes of Pierce and Allen. I'm sure he'll be a solid back-up 2/3 when he's healthy. However, if history is any indication, it isn't a question of if he is going to miss games this year due to injury, but rather how many games and at what point in the season. He's missed an average of 24 games during his career thus far, and has only had one season of 70+ games played (74 games). I will hope for the best, but, unless Walker and Giddens are ready for some prime time minutes this year, I unfortunately see a lot of 40+ minute nights for Pierce and Ray Allen due to a lack of quality back-ups.

[John Locke]

I dont understand why people are panicking, and acting like we need KG to be healthy now. We need him to be healthy in April. I don't care how big of an operation this was, he will SURELY be healthy in April.

[cloverleaf]

I think the only concern with KG is that his knee might not heal so that he can play at a KG level again. My guess is that he'll be okay, but nobody will really know until we see him out there jumping and putting pressure on it again.

[SichtingLives]

Great points all around, but I have to nitpick over one minor thing. TA will most likely still get some regular bench minutes. Whether he keeps them throughout the season (ie. plays consistently, stays healthy) is anybody's guess, with the odds pointing to no. Whether he'll still be a Celtic throughout the season is anybody's guess, but I just can't see Doc running a 9-man rotation during the reg. season with just EH and Marquis as the only guards off the bench.

I'd also like to hope that Bill Walker will slot himself as the back-up to PP this year. I'm not counting on it but a 2nd unit of Daniels, House, Walker, Baby and Sheed would be mint.

[Fencer reregistered]

Since it won't really be a playoff rotation all season:

A. When KG rests, Scal or Williams will usually get some minutes, even though Sheed/Perk/Davis could conceivably play the whole game.

B. Ditto if anything happens to one of Perk/Sheed/Davis.

C. KG won't be asked to defend centers much, to preserve him, so if length is needed and Sheed/Perk for some reason don't suffice -- and if Davis' strength doesn't suffice either -- in comes Williams.

D. If/when Daniels is hurt, it would be natural for Walker/Allen to split his minutes. It also would be natural to see more of a Rondo/House backcourt than we're apt to with Daniels healthy, defensive matchups permitting.

[EJay33]

Wade -

Everyone is saying that Boston has a shot at Wade, but how exactly do you figure we're going to go about doing this? This also seems to be based off of one comment by Wyc that says it's "possible". Exactly how are we going to get this done? Are we going to A) Wait to resign Rondo until after this year, and B) Get both Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo to sign for the exact dollar amounts necessary to facilitate a sign and trade for the newly resigned Dwyane Wade?

It really sounds like a lot to expect three players of the caliber of Rondo, Allen, and Wade to all just accept new contracts and situations that perfectly fit into a trade scenario. Why would Rondo, for one, accept a deal just to go to a team like the Heat with no Wade? Or an aging Ray Allen for that matter? Don't you think it's more likely that if he were to leave that a guy like Ray Allen would go to a team where his presence could put them over the top? I just don't see this working out. It's a massive longshot and I think it should be treated as such unless people can produce a realistic scenario where Wade ends up a Celtic. I'd say it's more likely that LeBron ends up a Clipper than Wade a Celtic.

Rondo -

Rondo is a nice young player, but let's not pretend he's a top 5 PG just yet. Rondo's inefficiency cost us the Orlando series. There was a great article about this a couple of days ago in the CT Post:

http://blog.ctnews.com/halzack/2009/09/ ... ig-digits/

Basically, Rondo shot 41% from the field and 65% from the line, inefficiency not seen in these parts since Antoine Walker, and quite frankly, inefficiency like we all hoped we'd never see again. He took 223 shots to score 236 points. There have been numerous times on this site where people have criticized Kobe Bryant's points per shot - but the reality is that he's never even approached Rondo's levels and he does it with a whole lot more of the defensive focus on him than Rondo, and Rondo was even worse during the championship run in this regard so it really is a cause for concern.

Also, why did Rondo lead the team in shot attempts in 5 of the 7 games in the Orlando series? He's demonstrated that he's a horrible shooter who can't make free throws. We have a couple of Hall of Fame offensive options out there in Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, Rondo would be best served to remember this and play Point Guard rather than go for stats in playoff games. Rondo has all of the talent in the world, but he's still very immature and his shooting is a glaring weakness that simply needs to improve for him to take another step forward.

This is a major reason why I think the Celtics should sign a backup point guard, Rondo is a fantastic player who needs to be reminded that he is the point guard and that his job is to set up guys like Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. When he starts going for his to the detriment of the team he should be put on the bench for a quarter or two here and there so he can watch some team basketball.

[Gant]

Though statistically accurate, there's a little bit of rotten-cherry picking in this article.

Rondo did have a horrible series against Orlando, but with Garnett and Powe out the Magic are the worst team in the league for him to match up with. Howard's too mobile and could roam off his man and block the drive. If Rondo doesn't shoot Ray and Pierce are smothered. With Garnett and Wallace playing Rondo won't have to force things.

Players on the losing side of playoff series often have a poor shooting percentage. Billups vs LA: .397, Deron Williams vs. LA: 4.14, Chris Paul vs. Denver: 4.11.

It doesn't mean Billups, Williams, and Paul are not top point guards; it means they had bad match ups and were forced to shoot in bad situations. (If they don't they lose anyway.)

Meanwhile Rondo's filling the box score in every other category. He is top 5.

[EJay33]

Gant,

You can call it cherry picking stats, but a further investigation of the stats that you posted clearly shows that Rondo was much worse in terms of both offensive efficiency and ball hogging than the three players in the series you mentioned.

Billups - 73 shots for 109 points - he got to the free throw line 75 times in that series and made 83%.
Deron - 70 shots for 101 points - he got to the line 41 times and made 83% of them.
Paul - 73 shots for 83 points - 86% on 21 free throws

Rondo -vs- Orlando - 104 shots for 100 points, got to the line 30 times and made just 66%, along with 2-15 shooting from downtown.

Chris Paul led his team in shots in 3/5 games in the Denver series, plus he was awful in this series just like Rondo was against Orlando lets not beat around the bush. However, he also doesn't have Ray Allen and Paul Pierce on his team to pass to making Rondo's performance even more inexcusable.

Deron Williams led his team in shots in 1/5 games versus LA.

Chauncey Billups led his team in shots in just 1/6 games versus LA.

Those guys understand their role as primary distributor.

Again, Rondo took the most shots out of any Celtic in 5/7 games versus Orlando and as I've demonstrated above he was woefully inefficient doing it. Rondo is a very good player, but he's a headcase and a ball hog at this point as well, he thinks that the team is just as good with him scoring as it is with Ray Allen and Pierce scoring and that is simply not true. He has the potential to improve and doesn't always play like this, but I'd like to see him pushed by a solid backup who can handle the ball when he needs to get benched for playing "me-first" basketball. He still has a lot to learn about the PG position.

As for top 5 - Nash, Billups, Parker, Deron, Paul. Not sure why you're arguing this.

[Gant]

It's a matter of preference but taking overall game including defense into consideration Rondo's now better than Nash imho.

Yes he was terrible against Orlando. But looking at everything:

Playoffs:
Billups: asts: 6.8, rebs: 3.8
Williams: asts: 10.8, rebs: 3.8
Paul: asts: 10.4, rebs: 3.6
Parker: asts: 6.8, rebs: 4.2 (the best fg% though)
Rondo: asts: 9.8, rebs: 9.7

Plus Rondo's the best defender of the group and defense matters.

[ParticleMan]

Small point: Is BBD in a contract year? i thought he signed a 2-year deal, no??

As for Rondo, yes he was bad against ORL, but he was also our best player against CHI. I agree he took too many shots against Orlando but part of it was the product of not having anyone else to take those shots. They were doubling on Pierce and Ray was mostly smothered, and those guys were getting tired. BBD had a few shots, but Perk isn't going to be a scoring machine against DH. With KG and Sheed out there it opens up the middle MUCH more for someone like Rondo. So it was at least partly an issue of personnel.

Look, Rondo has his faults and he's not a top-5 PG (yet) but to focus purely on the one thing he does poorly-- shooting-- without recognizing all the other things he does out there is a bit of tunnel vision. Rondo has unconventional strengths for a PG, and that has to be taken into account.

And remember, Doc and the team were constantly telling him to shoot when open, because that's the only way they wouldn't double on the other players. He did, it didn't work, and we lost. But let's not act like that's Rondo just getting a big head and turning into Iverson. It was part of the strategy. It just wasn't executed well.

[EJay33]

Well I'm glad somebody mentioned defense because this is supposed to be a strength of Rondo's. I felt like he neglected this aspect of his game (even though it is an undeniable strength) to focus on his own points. Rose averaged 20ppg on 49% shooting and you could pretty easily argue that Orlando PGs (Alston and Johnson) outplayed Rondo for the duration of that Magic series.

I thought PG would be a definitive advantage in the Orlando series and it wasn't. As for who is the best defender of that bunch of PGs I don't think you can just say "Rajon Rondo" and close the book on this case. He is arguably the best, sure, but Chris Paul has made the all-defensive teams two years in a row now (voted on by coaches) and Billups has quite a reputation as a physical presence as well. Deron Williams is also thought of as a very good, tough, physical defender. I don't think this is a huge advantage for Rondo by any stretch, but it is something he is good at when he puts his mind to it.

I guess with Parker and since we're talking about intangibles and other things players do other than just shoot, I'll take the guy with the NBA Finals MVP over the guy who had to get subbed out of the NBA Finals to break up the Kobe Bryant-zone defense. As for Nash, I see the arguments - Rajon rebounds better and defends better. I hate Steve Nash and can not stand all the crying he does on the court, but I will not deny that this man is unstoppable in the pick and roll and he is absolutely a guy you want on your team at the end of a close game. Try saying you think Rondo is better than Nash on a non-Celtics forum and see the reactions you'll get.

Finally, Particleman's point that the reason Rondo took so many shots in the Orlando series was by design (Orlando trying to take away PP and Ray and force Rondo to beat them) is exactly why Rondo's shooting is even worse than the stats indicate. Basically what I'm hearing (and I agree with it) is that given the presence of a shotblocker to take away penetration and a lot of switching and helping on Pierce and Allen, Rondo is still incapable of shooting over 41% from the field and 65% from the line which is why I think it is critically important that we focus on the one thing Rondo does poorly - because it cost us a playoff series and absolutely means that he is not one of the top 5 PGs in the NBA.

It is a weakness that can and has been exploited at the most crucial times. Rondo is nice but at this stage he has fatal flaws and he's not top 5. The fact that he shot so poorly when the other team was literally daring him to shoot the ball and leaving him open is a huge red flag. This isn't like a case of Jason Kidd's FG% where it is so bad because he takes so many shots at the end of the shotclock - this was by design and while being dared to take shots. Was he out of gas after the CHI series? I hope so, but I don't like that he wasn't out of gas from shutting Derrick Rose down and I also don't like how 2 years in a row now Rondo's nice regular season FG% goes into the toilet when the lights get bright and the defense gets tighter in the playoffs.

Other guys who could conceivably be considered top 5 if you're not a Steve Nash fan: Calderon, Harris, Derrick Rose himself. Baron and Jason Kidd also deserve to be in the conversation and possibly Arenas, too, depending on how well he has recovered.

[billfromBoston]

Fact: Rondo can't shoot very well outside the paint
Fact: Rondo had to be an offensive go-to player in the Orlando series

[John Locke]

Godmoney is Danny Ainge, no?