RealGM

Rondo could be one of the winners, salary wise next summer.

Guess, we'll see if Ainge locks him up before the season begins.

If the Celtics haven't don't lock him, up I'd say its better than 50:50 we lose him next summer.

Lots of teams want to make a big "splash". If they con't get Wade/Lebron, the options are Bosch, Lee, Josh Howard, Joe Johnson, Amare, Rajon Rondo and maybe one or two more

I'm assuming Kobe, Nowitzgi are resigned by their teams.

so who has money? If the salary cap is $50 million as the NBA projected this past summer...

Money available for free agents:


Nets have $32 million [2 max contract players?]
Knicks have $28 million [almost 2 max contract players -]
Heat have $28 million [its $45 million if they don't resign Wade]
Wolves have $21 million [I'm assuming they resign Love but not Brewer]
Bulls have $21 million
Phoenix has $19 million if Amare doesn't resign. [I think likely he leaves]
Cavs have $19 million if lebron leaves
Toronto has $16 million of Bosch leaves
Sacramento has $15 million [$20 million if they don't resign Hawes & Thomson]

So I'm counting potentially say 11 plus Max contracts signed by the teams above

and only 8 max contract players available above... though others will try I"m sure...

Others of course have less than Max contract levels but substantial amounts

Hawks $10 million [?]
Pistons $9 million
Thunder and Blazers could have say $10 million depending on who they resign
Clippers about $8 million

Teams like the Thunder & Portland have lots of money available and restricted free agents, I'm assuming they resign their people. But Portland for instance might not resign Aldridge and go into the free agent market. The same is true for the Thunder if they don't resign Westbrook or Green.

Rondo will find his pot of gold, if Ainge doesn't resign him in the next few weeks.

Will Danny match a Max. contract or something close to it?

Yeah I think we all silently are aware of this. Ainge has known it for awhile. And I think maybe Ainge is hooping to see Rondo prove he deserves a max this year so he won't feel bad matching a max offer sheet.

I'm confident Rondo's agent is asking for a max money right now, one of those teams will defentiely give it to him... he'll be a what 5 year vet PG with deep playoff experience and one of the best defensive PGs in the league.

Wolves2011 wrote:Nets have $32 million [2 max contract players?]

They have Devin Harris at pg.

Knicks have $28 million [almost 2 max contract players -]

D'Antoni isn't a big fan of Rondo.

Heat have $28 million [its $45 million if they don't resign Wade]

Heat like Chalmers and will probably go after a big like Boozer/Stoudemire.

Wolves have $21 million [I'm assuming they resign Love but not Brewer]

Flynn/Rubio/Sessions. I don't think they are going after another pg.

Bulls have $21 million

Rose/Hinrich.

Phoenix has $19 million if Amare doesn't resign. [I think likely he leaves]

Signed Nash to an extension.

Cavs have $19 million if lebron leaves

Paying a lot of money for Mo Williams to be their pg.

Toronto has $16 million of Bosch leaves

Paying good money for Calderon and Jack.

Sacramento has $15 million [$20 million if they don't resign Hawes & Thomson]

Just drafted Evans to be their pg of the future and have good money tied up in Udrih.

So while there are going to be a lot of teams with cap space, most of them don't have a need for a pg. The market for pgs just isn't that good. Most teams either have a really good pg, a young pg who they consider to be their pg of the future or a pg who they really overpaid and thus cannot afford to pay a lot of money for another player at the same position.

... Does this post from Rondo's agent? Kind of one side extreme story.

I doubt it. Here is my thinking: Either Rondo will improve again this season making it a no brainer to give him max or near max or else no one else will offer more than he is worth. I think teams are going to be skeptical of paying Rondo a ton because he is playing with 4 allstars and in a great system. I mean if I ran another team I'm not sure I could honestly say Rondo is the guy I need to make my team top tier. I think Danny realizes how good Rondo is, for evidence of this consider he is one of the few pre KG RA trades guys he kept. One way or another I feel we keep Rondo.

MVP16 wrote:

Wolves2011 wrote:

Knicks have $28 million [almost 2 max contract players -]

MVP: D'Antoni isn't a big fan of Rondo.

Wolves: Where have you heard D'Antoni doesn't like Rondo? Rondo is perfect for a fast break offense..

Heat have $28 million [its $45 million if they don't resign Wade]

MVP: Heat like Chalmers and will probably go after a big like Boozer/Stoudemire.

Wolves: Chalmers, you must be kidding..... Riley is preserving money until he sees how 2010 shakes out....

If they lose Wade they can sign 3 max players.....have $45 million available....

They try keep Wade, and get a Bosch or Boozer and then they need a point guard....[They have Beasley for PF or SF] Riley likes good defenders who can pressure, sound like Rondo?

Wolves have $21 million [I'm assuming they resign Love but not Brewer]

MVP: Flynn/Rubio/Sessions. I don't think they are going after another pg.

Wolves: Rubio will probably be traded. Doubt they will wait 3 or 4 years to see how good Rubio can become....D'Antonio and others drool over him. If Flynn doesn't develop quickly they might get Rondo then trade Flynn also..... Sessions played half his minutes last year at SG for the Bucks at a high level.

Sacramento has $15 million [$20 million if they don't resign Hawes & Thomson]

Just drafted Evans to be their pg of the future and have good money tied up in Udrih.

Wolves: Evans isn't a PG.... They have to trade Evans or Martin and get a true PG.......It could be Rubio or Rondo....... [The press in Sacramento is always talking about Rubio because they know this.] They passed on him in the draft because they didn't think they could sign him.

MVP: So while there are going to be a lot of teams with cap space, most of them don't have a need for a pg. The market for pgs just isn't that good. Most teams either have a really good pg, a young pg who they consider to be their pg of the future or a pg who they really overpaid and thus cannot afford to pay a lot of money for another player at the same position.

Wolves: As you can see I disagree with your analysis.....

Teams will want to make a "splash" next summer.....

There could also be trades where a team without a PG trades a high profile players to one of the teams with money and opens cap space to get Rondo.

There is too much money available for someone with Rondo's talent not to get a great contract....

But we'll see won't we.

I hope Ainge is smart enough to try to get Rondo now for $10 million or $12 million
[He told Max (Boston radio announcer) that he would take a contract starting at that range last spring, but that probably changes if he gets to free agency.]

I'd probably lock him up now if it were me. But I think Ainge realizes that there might be some top 10 young guys out there that even if we only have a small chance of getting, we have to try. For these guys Rondo is our chip. I'm not sure if he is more valuable as a chip resigned now or later. I bet Ainge does know however.

i'm sure it depends on what he does this year. if he brings them a championship they gotta lock him up.

Hemingway wrote:I'd probably lock him up now if it were me. But I think Ainge realizes that there might be some top 10 young guys out there that even if we only have a small chance of getting, we have to try. For these guys Rondo is our chip. I'm not sure if he is more valuable as a chip resigned now or later. I bet Ainge does know however.

you mean a sign and trade?

That assumes we can get back something we want.

We can't sign as free agent unless Pierce exercises his player option to get out of his contract.

We have $52 million on the books, if Pierce doesn't exercise his option and thats without Rondo and Ray.

The last point guard worthy of a max contract was Magic. Point guards *never* lead teams to championships no matter how much they dominate their position.

That's what everyone said about small forwards....until Larry

That's what everyone said about 2 guards, especially 2 guards...until Michael and then Kobe

You generally win titles with teams built around dominant superstars, and dominant superstars can play any of the 5 positions.

Well when Rondo plays like a dominant superstar then we will worry about that.. Until then..

Only the Suns look like a team that would be interested in him; after all, Nash ain't going to be playing for too much longer anyway.

I wonder if contract negotiations are affecting his play in the preseason. (Apparently he's been fantastic in practice.)

I doubt the Suns want a non-shooter for a PG. Again being a brick laying PG is nearly as bad as being a poor rebounding center.. Dberri might want him for his wages of win all-stars but i'd laugh at the team that pays Rondo max bucks.

Pete

Rondo is not a max contract player.

The Cs will almost certainly match whatever he is offered next summer, which is why they have no great incentive to sign him to an extension now. The CBA rules are such that the Cs have all the leverage right now and through 2010.

That being said, I would like the Cs to sign him now to a front-loaded deal. They will have less leverage to have a front-loaded deal once Rondo becomes an RFA in 2010.

By front-loaded I mean the following:

10-11-- 12m
11-12-- 10.8m
12-13-- 9.6m
13-14-- 8.4m
14-15-- 7.2m

(You are allowed to decrese or increase a salary by 10.05% each year in a multi-year deal off of the first year salary.)

The downside for the Cs, and why they probably won't do this, is by frontloading the Cs will pay more luxury tax for the next few years.

The plus side is terrific. If the Cs also front-load extensions for Perk and Baby in 2010 and 2011, they can create a great deal of room under the cap in 2013-2015 when the Bog Three and Sheed are gone. Just front-loading those three could create as much at $10m in capspace in any of those years.

Say we extend Perk next summer, to kick in in 11-12:

11-12-- 11m
12-13-- 9.9m
13-14-- 8.8m
14-15-- 7.7m
15-16-- 6.6m

Likewise, Baby (assuming his game develops into quality starter level):

11-12-- 9m
12-13-- 8.1m
13-14-- 7.2m
14-15-- 6.3m
16-17-- 5.4m

If we frontload (as much as possible ) our MLE signings in the next two years that run past 2012, we can create even more space.

The other advantage of frontloading is that players are much easier to trade down the road.

Wolves2011, Great analysis. You make a strong case for Rondo not returning to the Celtics. I like the breakdown of the $$$. It puts 2010 in perspective from a GM's point of view.

However, I disagree with your argument. "We will lose Rondo" is a bold statement and while the numbers may indicate this happening it is still much too early to tell. Who knows what will happen to all these teams with cap room from now until then? And the players? Some will get better, some worse and some injured. For example, if Rondo breaks his ankle this year and misses the playoffs he's looking at a contract worth $8 mil (maybe) instead of the max. This is unlikely but it's a possibility. Several other scenarios could occur. Point being, it's too early to know what will happen 8 months from now. Then you have to factor-in the new rules of the CBA. Stuff could get ugly. Lockout? Strike? Who knows...

This much is true: there is absolutely no way Rondo leaves for nothing. Worst case scenario is Ainge signs then trades him. If he realizes during the season that re-singing Rondo is all but impossible then he would probably trade him before the deadline for 75 cents on the dollar. Ainge is too smart (and the Celts have too much $$$) not to be compensated for one of the best young point guards in the league. You're right that Rondo will be appealing on the free agent front and may sign a max. offer sheet but indicating that the Celts will lose him for nothing? Untrue. If Ainge must, he will swallow his pride and over-pay Rondo.

I think Rondo will resign for something like 5 years, $55-60m.

If he wants more than that, I will personally drive him to the airport.

Ray Allen probably gets 3 years, $30m.

Unless Ray has a career year, I doubt his next contract is that high. More like 3 yrs, $20 million. A tad above the MLE level. I would frontload Ray, too.

Could be, Elrod. But what Ray deserves and what Ray will get could end up being different things.

They obviously think very highly of him, and his game and fitness habits could lend him to being a productive player into his late 30s.

Steve Nash got 3 years $33m from a cash-strapped franchise after he lost his fastball, after all.

I guess we will see.