RealGM

CeltsfanSinceBirth wrote:I'm not worried about 2010-2011 as much as I am 2021. Rondo will have played 14-15 seasons, and with the way he attacks the basket, I'm not sure he can play beyond that. Who's going to start in 2021? I'm hoping that the Cs have enough capspace by then to be able to sign a vet PG like a Russell Westbrook or Johnny Flynn to back up Rondo. Sure, they'll be on the wrong side of 30, but veterans win in this league.

I am also worried that Perk's shoulder won't hold up by the time 2021 comes around. Hopefully with the advances being made in medicine and biomechanics, Perk will have had a bionic shoulder installed by then.

We need to rebuild in 2021.

Wolves2011 wrote:Rondo is a restricted free agent in summer 2010.

Ray Allen is a restricted free agent in summer 2010.

It sounds like Ray wants a longer term deal for more money than Ainge is willing to commit and will enter free agency next summer.

It looks increasingly likely that Rondo goes into free agency next summer, and offers more than the Celtics are willing to match.

Once those players leave we can't replace them. We are still over the cap in the summer of 2010. So the only guys we bring in are mid-level exceptions and veterans minimum. We can't replace Ray and Rondo, with those options.

In 2011 it gets worse. I

Pierce and Perkins and free agents in the summer of 2011.

Only 4 guys potentially on the roster in 2011 at this point - KG, Wallace, Giddens, Walker with total expenditures of $31 million [of which KG is getting $21.2 million and Wallace is getting $6.8 million]

There's no Pierce resigned, no Ray replacement, no Rondo replacement, no Perkins resigned.

Even if you could get Pierce and Ray and Perkins to resign for $7 million each [I don't think you can] or a total of $21 million

You have $52million of the cap space locked up and only you only have 7 people on the roster, no starting PG and only the mid-level exception as major money to complete the roster....

When this team was put together Ainge was planning on a $65 million or $70 million cap. .... not a $50 million cap.

We NEED to rebuild!

even if we could resign all of those guys, and we can't, we would have an aging group no longer able to win a championship.

We don't have the cap space to add to the team... and we probably dont' want to spend the money to necessary resign Rondo and Perkins. [Both are probably due salaries of at least $10 million. For Perkins, note good big man defenders are expensive and Perkins is also developing some offense.]

We NEED to rebuild!

floyd wrote:

Wolves2011 wrote:Rondo is a restricted free agent in summer 2010.

Ray Allen is a restricted free agent in summer 2010.

It sounds like Ray wants a longer term deal for more money than Ainge is willing to commit and will enter free agency next summer.

It looks increasingly likely that Rondo goes into free agency next summer, and offers more than the Celtics are willing to match.

Once those players leave we can't replace them. We are still over the cap in the summer of 2010. So the only guys we bring in are mid-level exceptions and veterans minimum. We can't replace Ray and Rondo, with those options.

In 2011 it gets worse. I

Pierce and Perkins and free agents in the summer of 2011.

Only 4 guys potentially on the roster in 2011 at this point - KG, Wallace, Giddens, Walker with total expenditures of $31 million [of which KG is getting $21.2 million and Wallace is getting $6.8 million]

There's no Pierce resigned, no Ray replacement, no Rondo replacement, no Perkins resigned.

Even if you could get Pierce and Ray and Perkins to resign for $7 million each [I don't think you can] or a total of $21 million

You have $52million of the cap space locked up and only you only have 7 people on the roster, no starting PG and only the mid-level exception as major money to complete the roster....

When this team was put together Ainge was planning on a $65 million or $70 million cap. .... not a $50 million cap.

We NEED to rebuild!

even if we could resign all of those guys, and we can't, we would have an aging group no longer able to win a championship.

We don't have the cap space to add to the team... and we probably dont' want to spend the money to necessary resign Rondo and Perkins. [Both are probably due salaries of at least $10 million. For Perkins, note good big man defenders are expensive and Perkins is also developing some offense.]

We NEED to rebuild!

You can go over the cap to resign your own players. Ray is not restricted. The idea that the club won't put up the cash to sign Ray or Rondo because they want too much money is pure speculation.

floyd wrote:In your doom and gloom scenario you forgot that Pierce can opt out next year. Hopefully he does what KG did and takes a long term extension at lower salary giving us more financial flexibility.

floyd wrote:What exactly gives you the impression that the organization won't spend to have a winning team? We have one of the highest payrolls in the league and just add Sheed while above the tax. The likelihood these guys walk is pretty slim. If we fall short this year, they may blow it up but otherwise this group should be kept in tact.

The reason to keep those guys unsigned may very well be to see how the season goes and if we're clearly not a top contender try and move Rondo and Ray for Amare or some other disgruntled stud. You extend them and that option closes. You wait and you can still keep them. Rondo is restricted and Ray likes it here.

darrendaye wrote:Wolves, on this, I agree with you. I see the situation playing out like this....

Ray has to take MLE type money to come back. He has to fall in the later stages Reggie Miller type role. Accept fewer minutes on the court.

I don't share your gloom about loing Rajon, but, I will say they need to get value from him. Whether it be step up in play or Ainge needs to deal him for an heir apparent.

I'd love for Pierce to refuse his player option and sign at an appropriate number. That would show his team loyalty and that would be just cause for allowing him to retire a Celtic. That would go a long way to helping restock the talent.

They really just need to find the next superstar wing. Ainge should be stearing this ship, in the near term, towards that objective. I have faint hopes that Bill Walker may be an answer. But he needs to show an overall game. All we know is that he can dunk and he plays with some toughness. The toughness I like. But he needs to be able to shoot, handle the ball, and play top level defense.

So, rebuild or just retool, either works for me as long as the goal is to bring in that star wing.

Wolves2011 wrote:Rondo is a restricted free agent in summer 2010.

Ray Allen is a free agent in summer 2010.

It sounds like Ray wants a longer term deal for more money than Ainge is willing to commit and will enter free agency next summer.

It looks increasingly likely that Rondo goes into free agency next summer, and someone offers more than the Celtics are willing to match.

Once those players leave we can't replace them. We are still over the cap in the summer of 2010 even without Ray and Rondo. So the only guys we can bring in are mid-level exceptions and veteran minimum types. We can't replace Ray and Rondo, with those options.

In 2011 it gets worse. I

No...

Neither premise at the beginning is sound - both Rondo and Ray are just as likely to sign as to not - pehaps more likely to sign...you are getting your information from "hype" on the message boards and not reading the NBA Tea Leaves...

Pierce and Perkins and free agents in the summer of 2011.

Only 4 guys potentially on the roster in 2011 at this point - KG, Wallace, Giddens, Walker with total expenditures of $31 million [of which KG is getting $21.2 million and Wallace is getting $6.8 million]

There's no Pierce resigned, no Ray replacement, no Rondo replacement, no Perkins resigned.

Even if you could get Pierce and Ray and Perkins to resign for $7 million each [I don't think you can] or a total of $21 million

You have $52million of the cap space locked up and only you only have 7 people on the roster, no starting PG and only the mid-level exception as major money to complete the roster....

When this team was put together Ainge was planning on a $65 million or $70 million cap. .... not a $50 million cap.

We NEED to rebuild!

even if we could resign all of those guys, and we can't, we would have an aging group no longer able to win a championship.

We don't have the cap space to add to the team... and we probably dont' want to spend the money to necessary resign Rondo and Perkins. [Both are probably due salaries of at least $10 million. For Perkins, note good big man defenders are expensive and Perkins is also developing some offense.]

We NEED to rebuild!

Havlicek17 wrote:Some of your assumptions are incorrect.

First, you cannot jump to the conclusion that just because we have not resigned Ray and Rondo, we will not do so after the season is over based on the cap space situation. Ray's next contract will come down sigificantly, and will provide more than enough room to resign Rondo. Ray will be an unrestricted free agent, but he and his wife (due to their son's diabete's and the care he is getting from Boston's world leading hospitals) have said numerous times, that they plan to have Ray stay on with the Celts and retire here. Rondo will be a restricted FA and no way we're letting him go for cost savings reasons.

Secondly, unless you are going to get some kind of huge discount for re-signing either of these guys early, if I were the GM, I wouldn't do it.

1.) Professional athlete's always play best when they are in a contract year.
2.) It limits your flexibility in possible trade scenarios.
2.) What happens if they get seriously hurt and you just signed them to a new 3 year deal?
3.) What happens if they go all Stephen Jackson on your arse and instead of having just signed them to a new 5 year deal, they are an expiring? Oops!

The beauty of this team's payroll is that the big three expire in different years, and all three are towards the end of their careers so they are going to get lower salaries as they go. This allows us to not only sign Rondo next offseason, but also add salary with new players coming in over the next few years, while still maintaining the same or similar payroll to this year.

I expect we will hang banner # 18 this year and resign both Ray and Rondo next offseason.

JSABleedsGreen wrote:Wolves2011 you are tripping man. Did you take a puff before you started writing 10 entries on your own post?

You don't need to rebuild yet....not yet. You have 3 or 4 contracts that come off the books this season. Danny can use T.Allen & Scalabrine contracts and move them later this year for a 5 year veteran who will be here for at least 2 or 3 years. That's why he not dumping TA....he's going to use his contract later this year. The same way he tried to move his contract to the Pacers to try and sign Marquis for a longer term and more $.

I'm not worried about 2010. Ray will resign and he will resign for less. I expect him to resign at 8-10 per year. I expect rondo to sign around 9 to 11. If you take the midpoint of each of those offers 9+10....that's Ray's contract this season. Now the question is whether or not Ray will sign for less and i think he will. No one wants to relocate at age 34. He has his family here. He praises the orginazation all the time and he has for the first time found a home. He was happy in Seattle but if you ask me....he just looks like a happier person in boston surrounded by all these talented players. My thoughts are he stays. The same goes for Pierce. He doesn't want to rellocate, he will have take less. I can't think of many players who have rellocated at age 33 and have played well there afterwards. He knows that he's not going to find another team that will fit his style so why leave the one team that has players that fit your style?

My biggest concern would be KG's last year. What if the Celtics make the playoffs every year and get mid 20 draft picks every year from here on out till 2012. They won't have any talented youth. They won't have tradable assets unless they trade one of the big vets.....will they though?

Remember those years when Bird left? then Mchale? Then finally Parish? I can see that happening again...I can see this team being $hitty years 2013 through 2017...when all you have is Rondo and Perk and possibly a Glen Davis or a Bill Walker.

So rebuilding will start in 2012-2013 season......and it will be a rock bottom rebuilding process.

ParticleMan wrote:This thread is beyond dumb.

It's painting a ridiculously negative scenario with stupid assumptions and then claiming that we need to react before all the **** hits fan.

um, we have a pretty good GM. i seriously doubt all the gloom and doom you paint will actually come to pass.

as for rondo and ray not re-signing, it's called NEGOTIATION. there's no hurry right now. they are under contract this year. we can sign them for any amount, regardless of our cap situation. So there's no need to panic.

we've never been big players in the FA market, and we won't be in the future. Ainge is very clear on this. signing overpaid middling FA's is the road to cap hell. we didn't build our championship team with FA's. the biggest name we've ever signed is Sheed, and that was for the MLE and was a complete no-brainer.

Let me spell it out. AGAIN.
The road to staying competitive involves three things: Having large, expiring contracts (preferably with some value left); having good young players with upside; and having draft picks.
That's the recipe for being able to put together a package for the next superstar who wants to change teams, be it Wade or Lebron or Bosh or whoever. That's what the other team is going to want. That's how we got Ray and KG, without giving up Pierce. And that's exactly what Ainge continues to build here.

Let's assess our situation: For expiring deals, we've got Ray this year, Pierce the next, and KG the year after. We may not deal them but it's an option we have every season for the near future. For good young players we've got Rondo, Perk, BBD, and some young guys who have upside like Hudson and Giddens and Walker to sweeten the pot. And we have all our picks after this year.

NOTE: Nowhere among these criteria is cap space. Cap space is a dumb way to build a team, because the guys who are really good aren't going to become UFA's, they are either going to be sign-and-traded (since they can get more money, and their team can get something back), or else they are going to be traded before they reach FA so the team doesn't lose them for nothing. The guys who end up hitting the UFA market (and are worth more than the MLE) are Larry Hughes types, secondary players who end up getting grossly overpaid. Look around and you'll see that very few of the top teams are led by guys signed as UFAs. They're either draft picks or guys obtained in trades.