Marc Spears says no Rondo extension

[Captain_Caveman]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=m ... &type=lgns

Apologies if this should have gone into an existing thread, but I think it is newsworthy enough for its own.

IMO, this is still negotiation, but I guess we will see.

[BillessuR6]

I am OK with not signing him to an extension...he is not worth what he and his agent think he is worth...

And since it is a contract year we can expect him to have a good season...and that is what is important this season...

And it also gives us an opportunity to trade him during the season if a good deal comes along...

[sully00]

No I think this is a different discussion. I have kind of a hold on to your hat feel about this. This was not the plan, as far as offering Rondo a deal, it seemed everyone was content to just go into the season as is. Obviously Duffy and Rondo may be trying to get Boston to counter but, it doesn't feel that way.

I just don't think this organization values the "true pg" the way many fans and even media do. I just see that situation in GS with Ellis and wonder if Rondo isn't a Warrior in a week. But we will see.

[Celts17Pride]

Duffy, according to Yahoo! Sports, wanted Rondo amongst the top 5 highest paid point guards while the Celtics didn't feel that strongly.

Chris Paul, at $13.6 million, is the league's highest paid point guard, Deron Williams $13.5 million), Steve Nash ($13.1 million), Chauncey Billups ($12.1 million) and Baron Davis ($12.1 million) are also on that list.

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball ... tics_blog/

Celtics are not paying Rondo that kind of money. I expect him to be moved. Ainge is a proactive GM.

[PPAW4Life]

Ainge will not overpay Rondo.

Why?

Because Danny likes to play mad GM.

Once the Big 3 are done, he'll go back the lab again.

Why overpay Rondo in the midst of the franchise stinking while they rebuild? It doesn't make any business sense at all.

Heck, they wouldn't overpay Posey to maintain efforts to winning, so there is zero chance they overpay Rondo while the franchise starts to lose again.

[ParticleMan]

Danny holds the cards here, since Rondo will be an RFA.

Let Rondo play out the season. If he improves enough to justify being a near-max player, fine, we can always match any offer. If he doesn't, then he's not nearly as likely to get a big offer from another team. If there is 1 dumb GM that offers him the max, so be it. To me this is a make or break season as far as taking the next step. If he doesn't do it this year, given that he's only had 1 weakness for the last 3 years, then it's a sign that he will never improve enough to be an elite (top 5) PG. No reason to overpay for that, we can find a pretty good vet PG for lower cost (MLE) who can do almost as good a job.

[ryaningf]

There's no way Rondo's traded, let alone for a worse player with a worse contract. If a deal doesn't get done in the next 6 days, they'll just revisit the matter in the offseason. No need to break up a potential championship team over contract negotiations.

These are just part of the negotiations...Cs will counter-offer.

[sully00]

First off Monta Ellis is not a worse player he is a more valuable player that is the point. He may not be as good of a pure playmaker but even the Wins Produced guys know Ellis is one of the most productive players in the league when healthy.

I might stick with Rondo at 9 vs Ellis at 11 but if Rondo is saying he needs 12.

Rondo/Scal/TA/ Giddens for Ellis/Morrow works with one roster spot as an issue.

Agreed they don't have to do anything but the Warriors might.

[ryaningf]

First off Monta Ellis is not a worse player he is a more valuable player that is the point. He may not be as good of a pure playmaker but even the Wins Produced guys know Ellis is one of the most productive players in the league when healthy.

I might stick with Rondo at 9 vs Ellis at 11 but if Rondo is saying he needs 12.

Rondo/Scal/TA/ Giddens for Ellis/Morrow works with one roster spot as an issue.

Agreed they don't have to do anything but the Warriors might.

I think my feelings toward shoot-first point guards is well-established by now--they don't win. If you trade Rondo, you surely aren't looking to replace his scoring, yet that's all Monta offers at this point. He's a very efficient offensive player in terms of scoring, but it's Rondo's defensive and playmaking ability that this team would die without. This team is BUILT around Rondo's ability to break down defenses and deliver the ball to teammates in scoring positions. You don't mess that up with shoot-first point guard with a bad contract, especially when you're trying to win a championship THIS YEAR. And you sure as hell don't pick up an overpaid non-point guard like Ellis BECAUSE you can't resign Rondo the year before he becomes a RESTRICTED free agent. A guy like TJ Ford makes much more sense if you're trying to replace Rondo, and even then you do it next summer, not now. Now makes no sense AT ALL.

[AlCelticFan]

Chris Paul, at $13.6 million, is the league's highest paid point guard, Deron Williams $13.5 million), Steve Nash ($13.1 million), Chauncey Billups ($12.1 million) and Baron Davis ($12.1 million)

Mental note: every single one of those guys can shoot.

[Wolves2011]

First off Monta Ellis is not a worse player he is a more valuable player that is the point. He may not be as good of a pure playmaker but even the Wins Produced guys know Ellis is one of the most productive players in the league when healthy.

Sully, should I call you CLUELESS, like you call me names... or do we want to put the name calling aside??

Wins produced

Rondo 18.3
Ellis 0.4

Ellis in 2007 11.4
>>> since he was injured last year...

defensive win shares

Rondo: 5.1
Ellis: 0.3 [abysmal]
[low defensive win shares across career]

Assists:

Rondo: 8.2
Ellis: 3.7

Turnovers (TO)

Rondo: 2.6
Ellis: 2.7

Asst/TO

Rondo - 3.2 - very good
Ellis - 1.4 - beyond terrible for a Championship team PG.
Poor assist to TO ratio across career


Ellis is a good player, but not rondo and his PLAY MAKING and DEFENSE isn't even close.

Ellis is all scoring and not much else... is that what the Celtics need?

He is really a short shooting guard.......

[ParticleMan]

Wolves, your stupid statistics are getting very tiring. You've posted them 50 times. nobody's buying those statistics, you know why? WE ACTUALLY WATCH THE GAMES.

you should try it sometime.

Then you'd see how ORL brutally exposed Rondo as being a non-factor on offense against elite teams. In fact, the Lakers did the same, using Kobe as a free safety to double off of Rondo. Tell me another top-5 PG who is so blatantly and purposefully ignored on offense. You seem to continually ignore this point and spout off dumb statistics instead.

And just because other people (like GS, vying for worst-managed franchise with the Clippers) pay PGs stupid money doesn't mean we should.

The fact is that Rondo will be a RESTRICTED FA next offseason. That means we can match any offer. We hold the cards here. Why pay him $11 mil now when we could actually see if he's worth it for a year, and only have to pay him $12.5 mil (the max) at most next season?

If he earns it, great, I have no problem paying him the Max. If he doesn't earn it, but still asks for it, then sayonara, because if he doesn't improve this year he likely never will.

[Wolves2011]

Wolves, your stupid statistics are getting very tiring. You've posted them 50 times. nobody's buying those statistics, you know why? WE ACTUALLY WATCH THE GAMES.

you should try it sometime.

Then you'd see how ORL brutally exposed Rondo as being a non-factor on offense against elite teams. In fact, the Lakers did the same, using Kobe as a free safety to double off of Rondo. Tell me another top-5 PG who is so blatantly and purposefully ignored on offense. You seem to continually ignore this point and spout off dumb statistics instead.

And just because other people (like GS, vying for worst-managed franchise with the Clippers) pay PGs stupid money doesn't mean we should.

The fact is that Rondo will be a RESTRICTED FA next offseason. That means we can match any offer. We hold the cards here. Why pay him $11 mil now when we could actually see if he's worth it for a year, and only have to pay him $12.5 mil (the max) at most next season?

If he earns it, great, I have no problem paying him the Max. If he doesn't earn it, but still asks for it, then sayonara, because if he doesn't improve this year he likely never will.

Rondo is asking for $55 to $60 million

Ainge is offering $45 million and is said to be willing to move up.

Basketball Prospectus analyst Pelton believes Rondo could get offers in the $65 million to $80 million level next summer from teams like the Knicks.

So is it worth offering Rondo even $55 million [$52.5 might get it done] to keep from possibly having to pay $65 million to $80 million

or possibly even LOSE RONDO with no hope of replacing him IF WE DON'T WANT TO MATCH??

Thats the argument.....

Rondo is in the drivers seat...

[Cyclical]

If he earns it, great, I have no problem paying him the Max. If he doesn't earn it, but still asks for it, then sayonara, because if he doesn't improve this year he likely never will.

I don't think wolves gets this point. I'm so disappointed in Ainge for completely ignoring his posts...

[Wolves2011]

Wolves, your stupid statistics are getting very tiring. You've posted them 50 times. nobody's buying those statistics, you know why? WE ACTUALLY WATCH THE GAMES.

So even passing stats like Turnovers and Assist to Turnover ratio should be ignored....

I suppose you'd ignore batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage in baseball...

Sully was the one who brought up Wins Produced.... I just quoted him the stats...

but forgetting wins produced and defensive win shares...if you like...

Surely assists and turnovers matter, no?

Assists:

Rondo: 8.2
Ellis: 3.7

Turnovers (TO)

Rondo: 2.6
Ellis: 2.7

Asst/TO

Rondo - 3.2 - very good
Ellis - 1.4 - beyond terrible for a Championship team PG.
Poor assist to TO ratio across career

Ellis isn't a Point Guard....

he's a shooting guard..as shown by his Asst/TO ratio.... who by the way is clueless on defense....

And we are supposed to be a defensive team, right?

[ParticleMan]

LMAO @ Rondo in the drivers seat.

He's a RESTRICTED FREE AGENT.

man, are you dense?

that means we can match ANY OFFER. how is Rondo in the drivers seat? we can always keep him if we want. period.

sheesh.

If Rondo explodes this year, I have no problem paying him $80 mil.

I agree that I think Rondo is worth $10mil per. I think Duffy knows Ainge would go up to $10mil. But Duffy seems unwilling to budge.

[Wolves2011]

I agree that I think Rondo is worth $10mil per. I think Duffy knows Ainge would go up to $10mil. But Duffy seems unwilling to budge.

A short time ago you said he was not worth only $8 million.
[Rondo was worth less than Calderon and Calderon was overpaid.]

Why the change of heart?

[sully00]

First off Monta Ellis is not a worse player he is a more valuable player that is the point. He may not be as good of a pure playmaker but even the Wins Produced guys know Ellis is one of the most productive players in the league when healthy.

Wins produced

Rondo 18.3
Ellis 0.4

Ellis in 2007 11.4
>>> since he was injured last year...

defensive win shares

Rondo: 5.1
Ellis: 0.3 [abysmal]
[low defensive win shares across career]

Assists:

Rondo: 8.2
Ellis: 3.7

Turnovers (TO)

Rondo: 2.6
Ellis: 2.7

Asst/TO

Rondo - 3.2 - very good
Ellis - 1.4 - beyond terrible for a Championship team PG.
Poor assist to TO ratio across career


Ellis is a good player, but not rondo and his PLAY MAKING and DEFENSE isn't even close.

Ellis is all scoring and not much else... is that what the Celtics need?

He is really a short shooting guard.......

This is a little contrived but so is the whole thing. I didn't bring these stats into play you did. If you total Ellis' win score (that is the short hand version) for '07-'08 it is 7.15. If you total Rondo's for '08 it is 6.9. The positional adjustment for Rondo is at the point and Ellis at the SG lowers the score but it Ellis is still 3rd among SGs, I don't have the rankings of pgs but were does Rondo rank among pgs in 08-09? Not really important to my point because in Boston Ellis would be playing the point hence would be slightly more valuable by this stat, probably closer to even if there is a pace adjustment involved.

As far as "shoot first pgs don't win" frankly that is crap. PG's don't win period. Name me a team that won a championship off a pg and I will show you a SG in a PG's body. Wade, Billups, Isiah, Parker these guys won championships, Nash, Stockton, Kidd not so much. I don't know why, it is just a fact, in that sense PG is the most overrated of the 5 positions on the floor at least in reference to the hype.

In Boston and playing at the same level he did in '07-'08 Ellis would probably put up a stat line like 19/4/6 with an excellent TO% and he picks up a good amount of steals as well. That year he had a USG % of 21 vs Rondo's 19% last season. It is impossible to judge a Warrior as defender statistically but watching him play he is a capable defender. To me he is a faster developing Chauncey Billups or Sam Cassell depending on the defensive issue and no shocker these guys have rings.

To me a move like this does little to change the dynamic in Boston if anything makes the team even more difficult to defend now. More importantly it is much better use of cash to prepare for the future. Instead of having to pay a guy a million dollars a point I get 2 for 1.

[Wolves2011]

Wins produced

Rondo 18.3
Ellis 0.4

Ellis in 2007 11.4
>>> since he was injured last year...

defensive win shares

Rondo: 5.1
Ellis: 0.3 [abysmal]
[low defensive win shares across career]

Assists:

Rondo: 8.2
Ellis: 3.7

Turnovers (TO)

Rondo: 2.6
Ellis: 2.7

Asst/TO

Rondo - 3.2 - very good
Ellis - 1.4 - beyond terrible for a Championship team PG.
Poor assist to TO ratio across career


Ellis is a good player, but not rondo and his PLAY MAKING and DEFENSE isn't even close.

Ellis is all scoring and not much else... is that what the Celtics need?

He is really a short shooting guard.......

This is a little contrived but so is the whole thing. I didn't bring these stats into play you did. If you total Ellis' win score (that is the short hand version) for '07-'08 it is 7.15. If you total Rondo's for '08 it is 6.9. The positional adjustment for Rondo is at the point and Ellis at the SG lowers the score but it Ellis is still 3rd among SGs, I don't have the rankings of pgs but were does Rondo rank among pgs in 08-09? Not really important to my point because in Boston Ellis would be playing the point hence would be slightly more valuable by this stat, probably closer to even if there is a pace adjustment involved.



In Boston and playing at the same level he did in '07-'08 Ellis would probably put up a stat line like 19/4/6 with an excellent TO% and he picks up a good amount of steals as well. That year he had a USG % of 21 vs Rondo's 19% last season. It is impossible to judge a Warrior as defender statistically but watching him play he is a capable defender. To me he is a faster developing Chauncey Billups or Sam Cassell depending on the defensive issue and no shocker these guys have rings.

To me a move like this does little to change the dynamic in Boston if anything makes the team even more difficult to defend now. More importantly it is much better use of cash to prepare for the future. Instead of having to pay a guy a million dollars a point I get 2 for 1.

You mentioned "wins produced" in your first post:

the numbers are from the wages of wins site:

Rondo 18.3 - last season
Ellis 0.4 - last season when injured
Ellis 11.4 - year before in 2007-2008

Win Share from Basketball-reference.com

Rondo 9.9 [4.8 offense, 5.1 defense] - last season
Ellis 0.2 [-.01 offense, 0.3 defense] - last season 25 games]
Ellis 9.0 [7.1 offense, 1.8 defense] - in 2007-2008

not sure where you got your win score numbers....

So Rondo is still better by these two measures....

But just look at the assists and turnover numbers...

Ellis isn't a point guard.... or he is a point guard who can't pass or defend]

Is that really what you want?

Especially on this Celtics team, which has lots of shooters and highly values defense and passing?

You mention Ellis's Assists and Turnovers in 2007-2008 as a good thing???

here they are:
assists: 3.7
turnovers: 2.0

assist to TO ration: 1.85 - which is not good, and awful for a championship caliber team...

Ellis asst and turnover stats for his whole career:

asst"

2008/9 - 3.8
2007/8 - 3.7
2006/7 - 4.4
2005/6 - 3.2

Turnover for Ellis career:

2008/9 - 2.7
2007/8 - 2.0
2006/7 - 3.0
2005/6 - 2.4

His assist to turnover ratio has always been awful....

He is a SG in a PG's body......

[ryaningf]

As far as "shoot first pgs don't win" frankly that is crap. PG's don't win period. Name me a team that won a championship off a pg and I will show you a SG in a PG's body. Wade, Billups, Isiah, Parker these guys won championships, Nash, Stockton, Kidd not so much. I don't know why, it is just a fact, in that sense PG is the most overrated of the 5 positions on the floor at least in reference to the hype.

Yeah, and those guys could play point guard AND score and shoot a little, though Parker didn't develop his shooting skill until recently.

Monta Ellis, on the other hand, has never been a distributor, at least to the level of Billups, Isiah, or T Parker. He's more in line with Iverson, Marbury, etc...

And none of this changes the fact that Boston is built around a penetrating, pass-first point guard. Our entire offense would suffer without Rondo (or another Rondo-like player).

In Boston and playing at the same level he did in '07-'08 Ellis would probably put up a stat line like 19/4/6 with an excellent TO% and he picks up a good amount of steals as well. That year he had a USG % of 21 vs Rondo's 19% last season. It is impossible to judge a Warrior as defender statistically but watching him play he is a capable defender. To me he is a faster developing Chauncey Billups or Sam Cassell depending on the defensive issue and no shocker these guys have rings.

Possibly, only because Monta is still so young. But he could easily go the other way towards Marbury, Iverson land. He's picked up a ton of bad defensive and offensive habits playing in GS too, don't forget about those.

And while maybe he could have played the Rondo role in 07/08 and we still would have won a 'ship, that was only because that team wasn't as built around Rondo as we are now.

To me a move like this does little to change the dynamic in Boston if anything makes the team even more difficult to defend now. More importantly it is much better use of cash to prepare for the future. Instead of having to pay a guy a million dollars a point I get 2 for 1.

You're not facing the fact the Monta is overpaid. It's hilarious that you're willing to ship out someone for trying to get overpaid, all for the opportunity to ACTUALLY overpay someone else. To top that off, you want to do it before a championship run to boot. Rondo's integral to THIS team. For all of Rondo's supposed maturity issues, Monta makes him look like Mother Teresa. I just don't see the fit on this team, nor the allure of Ellis in comparison to the allure of Rondo. If faced with the decision, I'd overpay Rondo everytime, and not roll the dice for a shoot-first point guard with an injury history and attitude problems.