RealGM

The problem with determining Rondo’s market value isn’t just the deciding how good Rondo is. The market seems to be all over the place.

Here are the top 4 RFA PGs signed in 2008.


Of that group only West seems reasonable in retrospect. Ellis and Calderon were supposed to be future All Stars (at least in the minds of their teams) and now look ugly.

Now, here are the top 4 RFA PGs signed in 2009


No one got as much as Udrich. Even Session only got 16 million total (although Rondo is more valuable Sessions is actually a decent comp). Seems like a year earlier he would have been looking at 5 year, 35-40 million.

So, my point is... If the Celtics wait the worst that can happen is that Rondo gets a max offer sheet, the best that can happen is that Rondo falls through the cracks of a big free agent offseason in a poor economy and the Celt’s get him for MLE money. If the Celtics buy now and commit ~50 million, the best that could happen is a slight bargain, and the worst is a contract that looks ugly a year from how and prevents us from improving the team for 2011.

I disagree about Ellis he will probably put up 20/5/5 on 50% shooting, he may not be an all star but that is because his team is in chaos he is very good and 24 years old. In his case and probably in Calderon as well Memphis was presenting a clear threat of signing them to an offer sheet. That money eventually was used to sign Josh Smith's offer sheet 5 years 58 mil that was matched.

I agree that there is no reason to panic about restricted FA very few sheets are signed half of them by Pat Riley. The other thing is that teams target players that teams think there is a chance of them stealing away. A team already has a big money star at the position or other business at hand. With Boston already offering 5 years and 45 mil most teams not that it is going to take 12-13 mil to get Boston not to match so he now falls into that same situation that Ben Gordon and Luol Deng were in. Teams might be willing to pay you a little more but they are not going to have a lot of interest in just getting you a raise.

That said the advantage to paying Rondo now is that the business is handled and Boston can structure the contract under their terms and not end up in the situation that Utah has to deal with Milsap. Something as simple as a flat deal instead of one that increases with raises will hurt Boston's salary structure. So a competitor might decide to throw Rondo a deal they know Boston will likely match but it will be structured in a way that is going to cost them more than the cash value because of the tax or having to pay an upfront bonus.

If Boston wants Rondo for the next 5 years and values him at the price then they should get it done. Now if they would rather deal Rondo for a more conventional star to rebuild around then they should probably hold.

sully00 wrote:I disagree about Ellis he will probably put up 20/5/5 on 50% shooting, he may not be an all star but that is because his team is in chaos he is very good and 24 years old.

Well, possibly, but there is no question that Ellis had a VERY disappointing season in 08-09, and would not have gotten that type of money if he was an RFA in 09 rather than 08.

I agree that there is no reason to panic about restricted FA very few sheets... A team already has a big money star at the position or other business at hand. With Boston already offering 5 years and 45 mil most teams not that it is going to take 12-13 mil to get Boston not to match so he now falls into that same situation that Ben Gordon and Luol Deng were in. Teams might be willing to pay you a little more but they are not going to have a lot of interest in just getting you a raise.

Exactly, I think this is doubly true in a free agent market like 2010, where the number of big-time stars pretty much guarantee that Rondo will be an after thought for the teams with big money to spend.

That said the advantage to paying Rondo now is that the business is handled and Boston can structure the contract under their terms and not end up in the situation that Utah has to deal with Milsap. Something as simple as a flat deal instead of one that increases with raises will hurt Boston's salary structure.

I agree there are reasons to get it done sooner, not later. However, deal structure is a relative minor issue. The earlier you sign Rondo, and the more you compromise up-front. the more risk you take on, with very little possible reward long-term.

Another way to say this is the RFA process is basically designed to make it extremely difficult for young players to get paid to there full UFA market value. The Celts need to recognize that and not get in a bidding war with themselves.