RealGM

How long will this team (starting 5) stay together?

First let look the contract situation from the start of next season 2010/11?

PG: Rondo (24)
- signed for 5 years

SG: Allen (35)
I think he can play another 3 to 5 years
To compare, Reggie Miller played till his 39 years, lets look his averages in last years:

35 years - 39min/36 3pt ft/18 pt
36 years - 36min/40 3pt ft/16 pt
37 years - 30min/35 3pt ft/12 pt
38 years - 28min/40 3pt ft/10 pt
39 years - 31min/32 3pt ft/14 pt

Yes, Allen is the oldest of big 3 but I think he has the chance to play the longest.

SF: Paul Pierce (33)

With one year left next season, he will be FA in 2011 34 years old. Position he play I think 3 year contract in summer 2011 is max he can play.

PF: Kevin Garnet (34)
With 2 years left after 2010, he will be FA in 2012 36 years old. He could finish that year or extend for max 2 year, maybe one...depends on Pierce contract probably.

C: Kendrick Perkins (26)
In summer 2010 Perk will have one year left on his contract...in 2011 I expect we resign him for 5 years around max 40 mio (8 per year).


To resume 2010/11:

PG: Rondo (24) - signed till 2015 (29 years)
SG: Allen (35) - I expect max 3 year contract around 18mio next summer (till 2013, 38 years)
SF: Paul Pierce (33) - I expect max 3 year contract in 2011 around 24 mio (till 2014, 37 years)
PF: Kevin Garnet (34) - I expect max 2 year contract in 2012 around 16 mio (till 2014, 38 years)
C: Kendrick Perkins (26) - probably resigned in 2011 for 5 years till 2016 (32 years)

Looking the numbers I think big 3 plays max. to 2014 and I see a chance all 3 players ending their carers together in summer 2014. I also think no one of big 3 will be traded.

2014 is the earliest we will be a player in free agency. With no big 3 trade expected we have only mid level exception in 2010, 11, 12, 13 so I expect we will sign at lest two of sg/sf/pf future team prospects. Im sure team will plan so that we will have cap space in summer 2014 if not year before.

2014 roster:

PG: Rondo (28) - 12 mio
SG: Midlevel guy
SF: ?
PF: Midlevel guy
C: Kendrick Perkins (31) - 8 mio

Free agents 2014?
Danny Granger (31 years)
Andre Iguodala (30 years)
Ben Gordon (31 years)

Luol Deng (29 years)
Andrew Bogut (30 years)
Marvin Williams (28 years)
Trevor Ariza (29 years)
Monta Ellis (29 years)
Andris Biedrins (28 years)

For the fun of it lets look the rookie class who will be unrestricted FA in summer 2014 ? That is this years rookies(2009) if they would not sign extension after their 4th year (like Rondo does next season).

Next year(2010) rookie class will be restricted FA in 2014


Now when I looked over the league I think 2013 is the best year after 2010 to have cap space. Lets look at unrestricted FA:

Al Jefferson (28 years)
Kevin Martin (30 years)
Josh Smith (28 years)
Paul Millsap (28 years)

Dwight Howard (28 years)
Andrew Bynum (26 years)
Chris Paul (28 years)
Deron Williams (29 years)
Devin Harris (30 years)
Jameer Nelson (31 years)

So what do you think...till when will Pierce, KG, Allen play?

I think Danny's plan is to get under the cap by the summer of 2012 and make a FA splash. That's when KG and Sheed's deal expire (about 28 mil off the books) and I would look for Danny to sign Ray to a 2 year deal this summer (he'd be 37 when that deal ends). Pierce will be on a new deal at that point, hopefully he takes a hometown discount and signs on for around 10 mil a year.

With Rondo, Perk, and Pierce on board Danny looks to FA to sign the best wing or pf available. Once we land our big name, I wouldn't be suprised to see KG or Ray brought back as role players, but by the 2012-2013 season if we are counting on the Big 3 to carry the load we are in trouble.

On a side note Nocioni's deal also expire's after the 2012 season and a deal of Scal, TA, and Giddens works salary wise. Since all those contracts expire it allows Sac to get under the cap by about 15 million after the season and become a much bigger player in FA. The Celt's get to add a tweener foward to come off the bench who can shoot the 3 and defend multiple positions.

March when we trade Ray Allen, JR Giddens, Sheldon Williams to Miami for Dwayne Wade.

I don't think Rondo and Wade is very good idea for a backcourt..

Miami would never accept that trade (since Ray would leave in the summer) but maybe Rondo + Ray Allen + Baby for Chalmers + Wade if Miami stinks this year and Wade makes it clear that he wants to play for a contender next year.

Won't Rondo be BYC? So we can't move him. I think Rondo's deal kills the possible Wade move..