Cap Situation After Rondo Extension

[EJay33]

The 2008-2009 Salary Cap was $58.68 million and the tax level was $71.15 million.
The 2009-2010 Salary Cap is $57.7 million and the tax level is $69.92 million.

I'm not entirely sure which way we're moving here but my insticts would say the cap for next year will be back around 2008-2009 levels.

The Celtics payroll for this season is $84,220,991, according to Hoopshype. Obviously (and luckily for us fans), our owners aren't concerned about paying the luxury tax as long as the Celtics are able to field a championship contender on the court. How high they are willing to go remains to be seen.

Rondo is set to ink a 5 year $55 million extension. The Celtics can easily clear $6.2 million by letting Scalabrine and Tony Allen walk after the season. I still can't believe Boston offered Scal a 5-year contract but that is a topic for another thread. It's finally almost over. Another two million could be cleared by not picking up the team options on Bill Walker for JR Giddens. Both players are cheap so if the Celtics think they are worth anything they'll likely exercise these options.

Other plays who will expire after the season that I think Boston should 100% try to bring back are Eddie House and Marquis Daniels. Daniels might cost us all or at least part of the MLE, Eddie should be back for under $3 million.

Ray Allen is earning $19.8 million this year and his contract will expire after the season. I was trying to think about what kind of deal he'd be looking for next year, and my first thought was "3-years $27 million", or slightly more than JKidd is getting these days. I asked a couple of other basketball fans and one said "$10 million per year", and another said "2years $25million." So among my informal poll of my friends we think Ray will be commanding between 9 and 12.5 million, is that a fair estimate?

Paul Pierce has a player option for next year that would pay him $21.5 million. Pierce isn't going to get a deal worth that much in free agency so I am thinking he'll exercise that option and we can worry about him after next season.

Without knowing for sure, I'll assume that Rondo's deal will start at $10 million next year. Pierce will be earing $21.5mil, KG will be earning $18.8mil, 'Sheed will be earning $6.3mil, Perk will be earning $4.3mil, and Baby will be earning $3.3mil. That's $64.2 million for those guys. Let's assume Ray gets the higher end of my friends' estimates and add in another $12.5 million, bringing the total to $76.7million for the entire starting lineup plus Sheed and Baby. Say 'Quis needs $5 million. Eddie gets $2.5million. That's $83.7million for Rondo, Ray, PP, KG, Perk, Eddie, Quis, Baby, and Sheed. If they can keep that core together, I don't care if they bring back Gerald Green and Michael Olowokandi to round out the roster (actually yes I do, this would drive me insane), however, it is asking a lot of the owners.

There are a few likely scenarios:

1) Boston doesn't resign Ray Allen. I know, it's awful to even think about and it would be a huge blow to the future title hopes of the Celtics. With Rondo making major coin now and PP and KG getting paid maximum and near maximum salaries, It's a lot to ask of the owners to pay another guy $10+ million. They might resign Daniels, thank Ray for his remarkable run as a Celtic and begin looking forward to the future.

2) Pierce pulls the KG and does not exercise his player option and renegotiates a deal for less money/more years to remain a Celtic and to allow the owners the flexibility to resign everybody. This is a salary cap move commonly seen in football. If Pierce would sign a deal starting at $15 million the Celts could probably keep the core in tact for the same or less money than this season. However, KG set a bit of a precedent for this and he signed an extension that kicked in AFTER his old contract expired. Also, I think that Pierce views himself as more valuable than KG and might begin his negotiations by demanding to be the highest paid player on the team. If Pierce would be willing to pull something along these lines, this scenario would be great for our short time title prospects, but it is also likely that we'd have to endure a couple of years of way-over-the-hill Paul Pierce earning much more than he can return value on.

3) Wyc and Paglucia just spend whatever it takes. Who knows with these guys. At first I thought they were going to be as tighpocketed at Thanksdad after they failed to make any splash whatsoever in their first few years of ownership, then they shocked me by spending all that money for Ray/KG/PJ/Sam/Posey/Eddie. Then after the championship I thought the spending spree was a one-time thing after they cheaped out last year, and now with Sheed and Marquis in the fold for this season with the team way into lux-tax range I have no idea what to expect.

What do you guys see happening here?

[Celts17Pride]

I believe Ray Allen will get a 3 year extension somewhere around Rasheed money, $18-$21 milllion for 3 years. The third year may be a team option. I believe Ray will be resigned especially now that the Celtics locked up Rondo.

[ryaningf]

All this kind of thinking makes my head hurt, but kudos for the well thought-out post.

Here's my take:
1. Extending Rondo makes resigning Ray the next order of business. I think he's worth 9-10 million per, though I'd personally only give him a 2 year deal, making the end of his deal coincide with the end of KG and Rasheed's deals.
2. Next order of business is resigning Daniels using the MLE. He probably deserves it all.
3. I'd let Scal/TA/House/JR all walk next summer, provided they wouldn't sign short money 2 year deals. All of them are replaceable, though Scal and House do have value going into 2011. My hope is that Hudson makes House expendable. Some sort of sign-and-trade involving House might be in order, since we wouldn't have much a way of bringing in much salary after using the MLE on Daniels.
4. This would put our 2011 roster at: Rondo/Ray/Paul/KG/Perk/Daniels/'Sheed/Baby/Hudson/Williams, with maybe Walker as well, plus draft picks and veteran minimum free agents...

[klemen4]

My view:

- Allen could get 2 years 14 mio or 3 years 21 mio. I think that is the max we should offer. Being 35 years next summer I think no one will offer more than midlevel money. Only discussion point could be the lenght. I agree 2 years would be great to set ourselves for 2012 summer.

- 3 milion per year for 2 years for House

- 4 mio per year for Daniels for 3-4 years maybe...

I also expect keeping KG and Ray for a year or two after 2012...so 2013, 2014 is the fastest we will have cap room.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Daniels will be 30 halfway through next season and looks every bit the run of the mill role player he is, jumping the gun a bit talking about 4 mil a year or MLE etc, at the moment I wouldn't even have him on the radar for the extended future of the C's

[EJay33]

I think you guys might be underestimating Ray Allen's earning potential. He is still quite possibly the best shooter in the league and is showing no signs of wearing down. It's not just that he gives us a solid 18ppg, it's the way he scores them from so deep and so efficiently. I think if Jason Kidd is earing $8-9million per year Ray can ask for just as much.

It's a similar situation with Ray as it was with Rondo. Rondo had a lot of leverage because although he was asking for money that Boston didn't want to pay him, Boston is also in a situation cap-wise where they can not go out and replace him. The Celtics are over the cap and I am sure Ray wants to get paid one more time and Boston can't replace him. I think he's asking for more than an MLE-type salary.

[sully00]

The cap next season is projected at 54 mil on the good side and as low as 50 on the bad side. The lux tax level will drop in the same proportion.

I have Boston at just under 64 mil in committed salary for next year assuming Rondo at 9 mil and Pierce picking up his option with 7 players under contract. Walker will actually be making less than the veteran minimum salary next year so he isn't likely to be cut.

While I think Ray is pretty clear that he isn't going to be getting 20 mil per on an extension they have certainly tied their own hands a bit in what they offer him giving Rondo 11 per. I was hoping to get him back on a 3 year 24 mil deal but it may now take that over 2 years to bring him back. What he can get on the open market isn't really the issue because Boston can pay him whatever they want. I don't think he is going to be happy getting a smaller check than Rondo. What I would like to see them do is give him a 3 year deal with a big last season with a buy out so it works out to something like 10, 10, 4 guaranteed but would could deal his non guaranteed contract for a replacement.

Getting something done with Paul would make sense especially the way he is talking. The bench is the bench. Daniels and Eddie are kind of a package deal you could probably find one guy for 5 mil bucks to do what both of them does but if they want to split it to come back that would make sense as well.

For next season I wouldn't expect much in the adds dept if they keep Ray for around 10 they will have 7 of their top 9 and if they can get some savings on Pierce they would still be under 70 mil.

The big issue going forward is going to be Perk. His offensive game is developing and he is one of the three best defensive bigs in the game. I would really like to see him signed and not get priced out of the picture.

[jmr07019]

I think bringing back Ray is Danny's top priority now. His value will be interesting, as there are certainly a good amount of younger, better wing players out there. At the same time the Celtics need Ray and can't add any of those younger players. When all is said and done I'm hoping for a 2 year deal so his deal ends with KG and Sheed's. Even if we have to overpay by a million or two so Ray accept's less years than he wants, it sets up the team nicely to be able to sign a major FA or make a major trade without having to match salaries.

As far as the bench goes I believe you'll see some changes next year or maybe sooner. Quis is good but Danny may look to add someone with more size to defend LBJ / Kobe / Vince Carter coming off the bench. Additionally while I like the combo of Eddie and Quis playing the point Danny may want a more traditional pg on the backup unit. If Danny sees a weakness then he could look to add a role player at either the wing or point for expiring deals (Scal / TA / Giddens / Walker).

In free agency I could see us going after Raefer Alston (talk about the quickest pg tandem in the NBA), Chris Duhon or Felton at the point. Some wings to keep an eye on could be Travis Outlaw, Raja Bell, Mike Miller, Kyle Korver, or Roger Mason.

[Amen316]

I have Ray Allen at 2yr / 26million = 13mil per
or
3 yr / 37.3 which is about 12.4 million per (team options of course)

http://scoutingthenba.com/blog/category ... ee-agents/

[Wolves2011]

The 2008-2009 Salary Cap was $58.68 million and the tax level was $71.15 million.
The 2009-2010 Salary Cap is $57.7 million and the tax level is $69.92 million.

?

the NBA itself has said $50 m to $54 m is the likely range.

[EJay33]

Ok, sounds like I missed the memo from the NBA on the cap next year. $50-$54mil, whoa.

It is already unreasonable to expect Boston to make significant additions next year. Considering people are already talking about this squad having the potential to be one of the all-time greats (and I agree with them), I'm ok with that. When Danny failed to get Daniels in a trade for TA/Scal they had to use the LLE on him, which means it's unavailable next year. Also, since he wasn't acquired in a trade we do not have his Bird rights so if Boston wants to keep him they'll have to tap into the MLE to do so. Unless the Celtics get crazy and package TA/Scal and a future pick for something of value at the deadline I think we're looking at about all the Celtics are able to acquire at this time. I do not expect this to happen.

I think we're all happy to have Rajon here for another 5 years. I think he's been terrific so far this year. He's making 57% of his shots, getting 5rpg, and has had over 10 assists every game. He hasn't taken more than 8 shots one time. Considering he can not shoot and he has Ray, Pierce, Garnett, and Wallace on his team he really shouldn't be looking for his own shot. I thought he forgot that he was a point guard for a while in the playoffs.

Also Amen, that is a really cool site you have there. 100 different variables go into those projections? Whoa! Are the variables listed anywhere on the site? I left you a comment over on your blog. I think you should go into a little more detail about what it is exactly that you're doing, what variables you are using and why, and whether or not you've had success either A) predicting what players actually get signed for by NBA teams and/or B) predicting when NBA teams get a good deal or a bad deal when signing a player above/below you're projections. Awesome idea though. Hope to hear from you more.

[Celts17Pride]

Ok, sounds like I missed the memo from the NBA on the cap next year. $50-$54mil, whoa.

This is a big reason why Ray will be back. The Celtics really have no way of getting a player equal to Ray even at this point in his career. They could use the MLE to get someone but then they would lose Daniels. No one is going to give the Celtics a better player for Ray Allen in a sign and trade. Once Rondo signed it basically means Ray will be back. IMO.

[Captain_Caveman]

Pierce will definitely go into free agency next year. Even though he won't get $21m in the first year of a new deal, it is way better to have $45m guaranteed than $21m. He could command a $45m deal next summer. He will not likely be able to do that if he waits another year (when he will be 34 years old heading into the following season).

Basically, I expect that we will give Ray something like 3 years, $30m, and Pierce 4 years $45m.

That would be about $20m less annually than they are making right now, and Rondo's extension only eats up about half of that.

[Celts17Pride]

Basically, I expect that we will give Ray something like 3 years, $30m, and Pierce 4 years $45m.

Pierce is going to give up 1 year @ $21 million so he can get an extra 3 years at $24 million.



I don't think so. If Pierce gives up his 1 year @ $21 million it will be for something like 4 years $58-62 million. His salary next season would decrease from $21 mill to about $16 mill.

[Captain_Caveman]

Alright, compromise... 3 years $45m.