Danny Ainge's Critical Juncture

[elrod enchilada]

http://www.realgm.com/src_feature_piece ... _juncture/

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

Great article. I completely agree with you 100%. It took losses from Orlando (twice), Atlanta, the Lakers, and nearly getting beat by the Nets, for me to realize that we aren't winning a title this year......unless a trade is made.

[Andrew McCeltic]

The critical juncture passed. Danny diagnosed the team he inherited as one that had peaked, and made trades before its players ran out of juice.. The same thing happened to the Iverson Sixers group that went to the Finals, to the Hornets a few years ago, to the Pistons recently, and now to the Celtics. The time to strike was when this group was 23-5.

Making this team elite again would require 2 or 3 trades in the next two weeks on par with the Garnett/Allen deals. More likely we get a player like Hinrich and stay afloat in the 50-55 win range, with nothing but the MLE to augment the roster.

[Lewis35]

Very good artical and I also agree that the celtics as constructed will not will a title this year nor will KG ever be the same player. I am glad that finally people starting to see this team as what it is and not use the old "when we get healthy" excuse.

In my mind the rebuilding starts now because if they let Allen expire and get nothing in return next years team will be worse than this years team.

[Banks2Pierce]

t is now obvious that the Boston Celtics will not win the 2010 NBA title.

I don't take this as fact and everybody seems to. People seem to forget that we were the best team in the league before KG nicked his knee and was shut down for a month. People seem to forget that when this team was trying we absolutely blew the Cavs out of their own building. Did Cavs fans give up hope that night? Do people forget that just 2 weeks ago we lost to the best team in the NBA on a buzzer beater? I think people are freaking out too much.

[Gant]

That's a very good article.

Ainge and Wyc are smart competitive guys who know the problem. As mentioned, the team has to attempt to trade Ray before the deadline, after which he has no value.

Whether or not they can pull it off is another matter. There are other teams out there with expiring contracts looking at the same scenario.

The teams like Philly, Chicago, Sacramento, Golden State and others looking to shed salary are going to be wheeling and dealing until the clock ticks down to the trade deadline, looking for the best package. So any swap that happens probably won't take place until the last minute.

If there is no major trade by then, things look fairly grim. I mean it's possible for everyone to get healthy and healthier by the playoffs and everything falling into place for a championship run-- but it's unlikely.

If the major roster adjustment doesn't come now with that giant golden expiring contract being dangled, it's probably not coming at all, not in any way that leads to a title.

I don't agree that the critical juncture for a major swap has passed (as mentioned in one of the comments above). People aren't trading for Ray Allen to get a player; they're trading to save 20 million or more.

[Lewis35]

t is now obvious that the Boston Celtics will not win the 2010 NBA title.

I don't take this as fact and everybody seems to. People seem to forget that we were the best team in the league before KG nicked his knee and was shut down for a month. People seem to forget that when this team was trying we absolutely blew the Cavs out of their own building. Did Cavs fans give up hope that night? Do people forget that just 2 weeks ago we lost to the best team in the NBA on a buzzer beater? I think people are freaking out too much.

This team was very good at the start of the season I will give you that. Even at that KG was still not the same player. He was shooting well but he was not moving well nor was he jumping like he did. Also defensively and rebounding he was not the same player. I know the official injury was a hyper extended knee but I am not convinced of that. I think KG’s knee was acting up so they needed to rest him. KG is a shell of himself and I simply do not see him being a difference maker any more. Not his fault of course because it was only a matter if time before he would start to break down. What is concerning is that we have KG for two more years after this.

The cavs win was months ago and that was just one game. Since then they have played consistent basketball and they Celtics have not. As for the Lakers game: I cannot believe that people are hanging their hat one a one point loss. It is not the fact that they loss to the Lakers that is concerning; it is concerning the way this team has been playing for the past 6 weeks: Losing to every decent team, losing here and there to bottom feeders and barely beating the others.

It is not going to get easier next 5 games either. They are playing the Hornets, Kings, Lakers, Blazers and Nuggets. I would not be surprised to see this team go 1-4 or 0-5 this trip.

[Banks2Pierce]

I don't know. I remember a game in early December where KG was running very well, defending like an animal, and finishing alleyoops. He was probably 90% of what he was in that championship season, which is all we need to win a title. What is happening now seems to me to be another training camp for him. An entire month off is enough to throw you out of rhythm. If the team falters on this upcoming road trip, I will start to admit that we don't have it this season. We seem close to getting things together. It's the one letdown quarter every game that is hurting us.

Our defense is 10 PP100 possessions better with KG than without him. And that's this season: when people think we are seeing a 50% prime KG.

And I'm all for trading Ray in the right deal. But it just irks me when people say that the window is totally closed. I think they need to get a grip with reality and realize how hard it is to make it into contention in this league. You don't just jump off the bridge: you see what you have first, and to judge this team on how they are playing in January is a little much.

[darrendaye]

To an extent, agree with the critical juncture theme, but I believe it has everything to do with Ray Allen. I still believe that the team has a two year window.

The critical aspect of this is that this is the first of the mega-deals that Ainge has an opportunity to spin off to collect the assets needed to build around Rondo and the next wave. It may be just as fruitful to do nothing and re-sign Ray Allen to a fair value contract running 2 years, let the original Big 3 have one more go of it, then find a competitive market for Ray Allen from a contender in exchange for prospects or draft picks. Or, as the OP stated, parlay Ray's contract into other assets. Though, I would argue, that even this strategy should come with the intent of dealing those assets in two years or so.

As for the other expirings, I don't believe that this is a crossroads point. The team has 7 players signed for next season and as the article stated, perhaps little incentive to use the MLE, especially going out more than two seasons. Maybe use it in a Posey-esque fashion where there is an out after a season or two. So how else do you fill the roster? Simple, re-sign the Bird Rights free agents you have, House and TA again to two year deals and you again have a large expiring deal figure when paired with Rasheed Wallace and/or KG.

The retooling is likely again going to begin with draft picks. It means either suffering one or two very poor seasons or doing the expiring for bad contract plus pick tango, and most likely both. IMO, Ainge is doing the franchise a disservice if he does not trade at least 2 of the 3 Big Three. And the one I would strongly advocate keeping for loyalty purposes alone, Pierce, may not be willing to suffer more non-contending seasons for the good of the organization.

I'm not ready to stick a fork in the team, but, sucession planning is definitely starting Ainge in the face with Ray's expiring deal.

[ryaningf]

Yes and no; it's a critical juncture in terms of talent infusion potential, but no, I still think we can win it all. There's the rub--do you go ahead and think future to bridge to the Rondo era, or do you maximize your chances THIS YEAR?

See, there's still a small chance that we have perfect health through the playoffs, KG regains his December form, we add something via trade or the waiver wire, and we get lucky. I'd give it 5-15% chance of happening, maybe more if we can remain injury free from this point forward (the injuries are killing our chemistry and we pretty much have to remain injury-free to rebuild the chemistry to championship levels). We aint' dead yet, there's too much basketball left.

However, I would agree that trading Ray right now presents our biggest opportunity in 2010 *and* 2011 to add talent (we're not going to trade Pierce--he's retiring as a Celtic). It's now or never, sink or swim with this group for the next 16 months...if we don't trade Ray Allen. In that sense, it is a critical juncture for this team's ability to remain a contender beyond 2010.

It'll all depend on the kind of deal.

[OBisHalJordan]

The follow up question i have is, if Ainge doesn't do something bold and the Celtics begin a slide to mediocrity that will take years to fix, will it signal the hegemonic crisis of the Ainge regime. Will he be rendered illegitimate to the ownership group and replaced?

I really thought 2007-2008 was Ainge's put up or shut up season. By getting Pierce veteran help and he displaced his previous failures as GM (he had yet to produce a team as good as the one he inherited which was mediocre but good enough to get in the playoffs) on to players who had better reputations as basketball players than he had as a GM. What do I mean by this? As long as the Big Three could still be credibly called the Big Three, DA was considered a good GM. To Celtics fans, he has been anointed with mystical basketball guru status and given blind faith. His draft record is read selectively to position him as great at finding late draft gems: TA, Jefferson, Gomes, West, Powe & Davis are cited as proof of his success but Giddens, Pruitt, Walker, Green and Reed are never brought up to ask if whether just got lucky with the good picks. Similarly, you often see posters refer DA as if he had some divine plane to get KG and Allen that started the moment he became GM and traded Walker for less than he was worth (remember Dallas turned Walker into Jason Terry).

I think we give DA way too much credit. I think luck and circumstance had a lot to do with his success. How many people think DA would still be around if the KG had been traded to Suns (as was rumored before the deadline in the 2006-2007 season) and the Celtics ended up with the 5th pick, no Durant and same flawed team that lost so many games in row? More importantly, how many ask this types of questions before they uncritically anoint DA as a great GM and place DA beyond criticism. Now Ainge is back in crisis mode. I am interested to see if he really is an exceptionally good GM or if he isn't the mystical basketball guru many make him out to be.

[GreenDreamer]

It absolutely is a critical juncture. This team is not winning a Title as presently constituted. It is doomed to fail. Just look at the effort it took to get out of the first round last season, and the state of the team at the end of teh second round. It is hard to win a Title when you have to work hard early on, and this team doesn't have the depth to absorb long series. It isn't a matter of beating any one team. It is a matter of beating 3 or 4 good teams in back to back, gruelling series.

A trade or two, though, may open the window back up again. I also think that ANY such trades should be made with an eye towards advancing a team that plays to Rondo's strengths, and not to Doc's fantasy about how his offense would work "if only", BS.

Get it done. if nothing is done, the team is running up the white flag no matter wahat they SAY. This is doing time.

[Banks2Pierce]

I think we give DA way too much credit. I think luck and circumstance had a lot to do with his success. How many people think DA would still be around if the KG had been traded to Suns (as was rumored before the deadline in the 2006-2007 season) and the Celtics ended up with the 5th pick, no Durant and same flawed team that lost so many games in row? More importantly, how many ask this types of questions before they uncritically anoint DA as a great GM and place DA beyond criticism. Now Ainge is back in crisis mode. I am interested to see if he really is an exceptionally good GM or if he isn't the mystical basketball guru many make him out to be.

This is straight up bs. No other teams in the league had the assets to get both KG and Ray Allen and due to the great planning and shrewd drafting Ainge was able to land the players/contracts to match up to a max superstar. He also had enough on the roster to be good enough to win the championship after unloading a ton of assets. Drafting Perk, Rondo, Jefferson, West, gomes, powe, and davis after the 15th pick is just fantastic and you think he lucked into success? Get outta here with that.

[tfmiii]

I think we give DA way too much credit. I think luck and circumstance had a lot to do with his success.

this is a load of malarky.... i smell an agenda lol

[SichtingLives]

great article Mr. enchilada.

[GuyClinch]

I think Danny fully intends to make some moves. The problem is it takes two to tango - and perhaps there are no good moves that can be made. I think fans often forget this..

I don't believe Danny wants his team to be all - or - nothing so trading Ray Allen makes a ton of sense. Your going to win more championship if you field a consistently good team. As for the building around Rondo stuff - Rondo doesn't need any special kind of players to excel - well other then that they can shoot..

[Kefa461]

Interesting......I thought the Critical Juncture was the Allen/KG blockbuster....the Wonderful/Unbelivable turnaround and Championship of 2008.....oh but I digress.

How soon we forget.


This must be another Critical Juncture...hmmmmm.

[Bill Lumbergh]

I think we give DA way too much credit. I think luck and circumstance had a lot to do with his success.

this is a load of malarky.... i smell an agenda lol

LOL. Agreed. Read just like a Malle, Puba or recruiter post.

[OBisHalJordan]

You all can dismiss my skepticism out of hand if you want but I think that only further supports my point about uncritical group think. I am not saying DA is an bad GM nor I am saying that his success is only luck. I just don't think we should have blind faith in him. I think we need to consider his good moves and his bad moves and evaluate from there. If we attribute DA's good judgment to his picks that panned out, what do we attribute his picks that didn't pan to? Bad luck? Or maybe, just maybe, Ainge isn't perfect and he made some bad calls, for example, picking Gerald Green over Nate Robinson, Ronny Turiaf, Jason Maxiell or any of the players drafted after Green that are actually still in the league and contributing to teams. How do we explain why Ainge picked Giddons over Mario Chalmers? No one tries to explain these failed picks when they claim DA is a superb drafter. Moreover, no one likes to bring up DA's free agent record because it is terrible. The only free agent signing that actually panned out was Posey. The Blount signing was such a fiasco that he had to make bad trade to get out of it. Everyone loved the when it happend to the point that anyone who raised any criticism got blasted but now Sheed signing doesn't look so hot either. Now, uncritical support has turned into uncritical hate.

Instead of evaluating these various moves and coming with some kind of nuanced judgement, I have seen many posters write things like "in Ainge we trust." I think that is silly. I think giving up on thinking and anointing someone was beyond criticism is "straight up bs" but, then again, Realgm seems to be one of the world centers for uncritically bullshitting.

Counterfactuals are tough. Something happened and it is easy for us to view it as preordained after its all fallen into place. What is harder is to is see what equally likely outcomes were out there. KG was rumored to go to both the Suns and the Lakers, before he ended up in Boston. I don't think it is "straight up bs" to think KG could have ended up in Phoenix after being traded for a package that centered around Stoudamire because, insofar as we can believe media reports, this was an actual deal that was on the table.

We will see what happens but I guarantee if this team goes south, DA's uncritical supporters will become uncritical haters. Just consider the debate over Ray Allen on the forum. Some people hate him uncritically others love him uncritically and few actually try to intervene the debate to establish what Ray's contribution to the team actually is, what positives and negatives he brings to the table.

That type of reasoned evaluation becomes less and less possible stop you thinking about what actually happened and just decide if someone is "good" or "bad." Do whatever you want but you're doing yourself a disservice if you only consider information that supports the narrative you've already decided is true.

[The Rondo Show]

I think Danny fully intends to make some moves. The problem is it takes two to tango - and perhaps there are no good moves that can be made. I think fans often forget this..

I don't believe Danny wants his team to be all - or - nothing so trading Ray Allen makes a ton of sense. Your going to win more championship if you field a consistently good team. As for the building around Rondo stuff - Rondo doesn't need any special kind of players to excel - well other then that they can shoot..

Agreed. Not sure it's really up to Danny whether Ray stays or goes. That depends on whether a team like the Kings or 76ers or whoever is willing to give up a Martin/Iguodala/etc. type for cap relief.

If not and we are sorting through garbage offers like Kirk Hinrich for Ray, I think Danny will stand pat with the possible exception of just tweaking the roster and adding a combo guard to replace House off the bench (using House, TA, Giddens, etc. as expirings to get a deal done).

We don't really have any valuable young pieces we are willing to deal or any valuable picks, so at this point Danny's just crossing his fingers that a team with a good young player is looking for some cap relief.