Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

[Whole Truth]

This & the Cavs win shows the benefit of Murphy's spacing over Zion's paint gravity. Pels aren't playing 4 on 5 when teams ignore Herb. Despite Herb & Jonas shooting better than 36% from 3, Herb on a little better volume. Teams will give both Herb & Jonas that option to contain Zion's paint gravity, so they're effectively playing 2 on 5 while the trio of Jonas, Zion & CJ are not good defensively to compensate not being efficient. Both Herb & Jonas have done their job to be shooting from 35-40% from 3. There's nothing that can be done with teams choosing to live with that fact. It's to their overall benefit to contain Zion, take away Jonas rebounding & preference for the paint & BI's preference to play in the mid range. They're effectively playing 2 on 5, contain Zion in the paint & CJ on the perimeter. Then this starting lineup doesn't have enough defensive compensation when that strategy is effective & they don't take what's given. Reason for inconsistent performances with all the talent & depth. Not just game to game but halves to halves. As people wonder why all the double digit blown lead pinning it all on Green. Though he is the one choosing that starting rotation under experience & reputation.

With Murphy's 3pt spacing over ZIon's gravity, teams no long have reason to zone & sag off of Herb who's not a threat but shooting well from 3. They're giving Herb & Jonas points to pick a poison which they cannot do with Murphy's 3pt spacing.

With Cavs like spacing vs Zion's gravity. Jonas was 15 & 12 in 22 minutes vs Sabonis & the Pels with only Jonas & CJ no Zion defensively held the Kings to 43 half court points & would have held them to under 80 at that pace if not for the 40pt 4th Q against the emptied bench with the 50pt lead turned to 30pt win.

2 games is not a good enough sample size as Kings are already a favorable matchup having swept them.

If Murphy is a better fit than ZIon, I'd look to offer him up to Detroit for the #1 pick as they have Duren & need a corner stone player, where my target Sarr, who's currently #1 in some mocks, doesn't project as a true franchise player. Extend Jonas for 2 seasons to develop & integrate him --

Sarr - Jonas
Murphy -- Nance
BI - Naji
Herb - Hawkins
CJ - Daniels

Now you get a 7-1 switchable 5 with range to compliment the starters & not a one dimensional rim runner at cost.

[Whole Truth]

My above post is why there's talk of swapping one or both Jonas & CJ to fit Zion on both sides of the court. He's a tough fit if the roster is not ideal for his skillset.

As I've been stating. Going with Zion, the reason I want Daniels with Herb in the starting lineup over CJ. If the apposing team is doing as I described above, zoning to contain ZIon & playing the lone 3pt threat in CJ, it comes like there's no spacing anyway when the others don't take what's given but the difference was Daniels would help them compensate that fact getting multiple stops paired with Herb, which the starters cannot do with CJ.

To prove what I'm saying. Starters at the point I was making this, with Daniels +.114 3pt%, with CJ -.086 3pt%. As you can see. The starter with Daniels actually have an edge in 3pt% over CJ's spacing which is why Daniels + defense led to the +22 rating, he helped that rotation get stops & to defend in less space.

Replace Jonas who transformed his game to shoot near 40% from 3 to help stretch the floor for Allen who takes & makes none, it has a similar ripple effect of when teams choose not to defend Jonas, ecept, they wouldn't have to concern themselves at all with Allen because they want to zone not pick an option to. Allen, who's entire game & efficiency is at the rim on a team (Cavs) that chooses to space the floor on volume vs teams successfully zoning ZIon with Jonas capable of hitting an open 3 at 40%, lol. Similar to when teams don't concern themselves with Daniels on the perimeter. However, difference with these choices, is that they run more of a risk of Daniels hitting an open 3 by chance, than Allen getting a high percentage 2 in a clogged lane by choice. Which in turn would make it easier to contain the lone 3pt threat CJ, than it already is. Another problem is Jonas is not the only player that requires Daniels ball pressure. Where pressuring the ball closes the space the team has to defend in, if it's not sufficient enough, can a rim protector cleanup teams easily getting to their spots & creating space. People talk about Jonas rim protection but what about Zion's man getting a straight line to the basket, CJ's man getting to his spots comfortably etc... There's a reason the team is more effective with only 2 of the 3 playing in combination defensively.

[Whole Truth]

After last night, a Pels posters says why trade either Jonas or CJ. Someone needs to remind him Zion wasn't playing.

The argument to trade either Jonas or CJ, is which will be a more beneficial move for Zion on both ends. They draw reference to Nance being a better pairing with ZIon but it's Jonas that has the highest 2 man pairing with Zion outside Daniels ball pressure of all the starters. Where Nance plays bench minutes.

It's not easy to isolate players from situation to give the correct context to numbers. This is why stats require volume to reduce the noise in small samples.

Unlike others I don't use stats to tell me what to think. I use stats to back up what I am thinking.

[Whole Truth]

For the Pels poster that said you should never play Herb/Daniels with Jonas/ZIon

Jonas - Zion - Herb - Daniels (100mins) + 16

Jonas - Zion - CJ (312mins) -5
Jonas - ZIon - Daniels (184mins) +18

Zion - Jonas (521mins) +6.5
Zion - BI (576mins) +4.5
Zion - Herb (577mins) +1.8
Zion - CJ (454mins) +1.7

ZIon - Daniels (386mins) +10.8, ball pressure over spacing.

I was hoping to find a Nance 2 man pairing to show the fit of rim protection vs ball pressure but there's none listed on BR.

[Whole Truth]

It's amazing how disingenuous some posters/stats can be. One poster claims how well the team has played without Zion Pistons, Cavs, Kings recently etc..

His comment is rebuffed by someone posting the 4-3 record without ZIon. Similar to CJ's record in comparison to Daniels. They talk about the fact there was a couple easy wins in the 4 wins but ignore....

The 1pt loss to the Wolves with not only no Zion, but no CJ, Murphy, Nance, Herb or Jose.
The 1 possession loss to Utah playing on the back end of 3 game in 4 nights B2B short Zion, CJ, Murphy & Ryan.

Where in the return game vs the same Utah team that Zion returned they still lost by one point without the teams 3 shooters.

I don't remember the 3rd match lost without Zion but if you are checking the above context, Pels could easily be 6-1 without not only ZIon but ZIon, CJ, Murphy, Nance & Jose.

Acting as though Zion was the only factor in those losses is disingenuous either by the poster or the stat itself. Same as ignoring SOS & the fact Daniels had no bench to go 5-4 as a starter while the starting lineup was +22 in that 9 game stretch. Is how teams make bad judgements. The starting lineup was a negative in only 2 of those 9 games & it was vs Utah with no spacing & Zion in the first B2B 3 games in 4 nights down 4 rotation players.

[Whole Truth]

Poster mentions how well Jonas played against Kings, next poster claims Zubac owned him the night before lol

Jonas was -7 starting out 4-5 handing an 8pt lead over to the bench where Clippers went on a 14-2 run. His plus minus was 2nd best on the team to Nance's team high -21. What got owned in the Clippers match was the guard play. With CJ, Clippers have played not only Jonas but Nance off the court. Without CJ playing vs Clippers, check the 9-0 Pels record, Jonas production in them & stop lying. Jonas is one of the main reasons Pels have faired well vs Clippers as they are weak in the front court. It's when Pels play CJ vs them, that Jonas/Nance gets played off court because of containment & lack of ball pressure vs a guard heavy team.

First year, Pels 2-0 with Hart vs 1-1 with CJ with Kawhi & PG missing in the PI win.

This year Pels 1-0 with Daniels vs 0-1 with CJ, with Clips healthy in both.

If Pels were to meet Clippers in a PO series, Jonas would be a big reason why Pels would have a chance to win but it would depend on Green not relying on CJ to beat their backcourt lol.

Which brings me to the same poster saying Jonas can't be a starter on a contender when Jonas is the only Pels to not only make the ECF but be a main contributor as to why the Raptors got there. He beat PG Pacers by outplaying & rebounding Turner, then took the first 2 games vs Wades Heat man handling Whiteside, with Derozan & Lowry putting up historic PO lows, before getting injured in a series that ended up 7 from a 2-0 start, to meet the Cavs in the finals who went on to beat the prime Warriors that yr.

Jonas is matchup dominant, to say he can contribute in the PO's, is flat out wrong. He has more PO wins than CJ has PO games.

[Whole Truth]

Brings me to the last incorrect statement to correct. Jonas potential extension. Poster says with the yr he's having he won't extend on another team friendly contract -

Jonas career average - 13.5 pts, 9.5 rebs, 1.3 ast on (56/35/79) shooting 58 eFG%

Jonas this year - 14 pts, 9.8 rebs, 2.3 ast on (57/37/80) shooting 60 eFG%

As I've been saying Jonas is reliable consistency at very good cost production value. For an example of that cost production take a similar talent in Vucevic who's making 30m per.

Jonas is averaging the above in 26mins on 9.8 FGA's at 15m per

Vucevic in 34min & 15.4 FGA's is averaging - 16.5 pts, 10.5 rebs, 3.4 ast on (45/28/87) shooting 48 eFG% @ 30m

CJ at 35m, who's been hot from 3 of late, is averaging 19 pts on 16 FGA's to Jonas 14 pts on 9.8 FGA's.

[Whole Truth]

Jonas 26 minutes, low volume efficiency, 15m contract & no fuss professionalism, is what give this team it's quality & versatility at centre. All this team needed was a cheap defensive rim runner to bridge a gap between Jonas & Nance. In that versatility he's not what limits this team defensively.

It's the streaky shooter you can't defensively pair with your franchise player in most cases against good guard play. Where you have to start & finish with his 30m contract that limits the teams defensive ceiling & cap management.

Dejount Murray 27, 2 way guard averaging identical offensive numbers, 18 m per, half the cost, controlled 5yrs.

Yet people think Jonas is the only way to upgrade this roster

[Whole Truth]

Green's objective is to make CJ playable by having a rim protector but this team would be more efficient, effective, if he paired Jonas/Zion with ball pressure & brought CJ's scoring off the bench.

Jonas - CJ, 552 mins +3.2, mostly due to their bench minutes together.
Jonas - BI, 765 mins +3.5
Jonas - Herb, 683 mins +5.5
Jonas - Zion, 521 mins +6.5
Jonas - Daniels, 430 mins + 6.9, mostly starters minutes from his 9 starts.

The reason Jonas doesn't get to play with Daniels ball pressure 430mins lowest pairing. Green opt for Nance rim protection = CJ.

Jonas 15m - Zion - BI - Herb - Murray 18m >>> Allen 20m - Zion - BI - Herb - CJ 30m

On court, cap management & cost production.

Jonas gives an apposing skillset to Nance where Allen is a redundant skillset which allow Pelicans to play different in matchups. Where Jonas at 15m is matchup dominant, if used correctly. Take the latest Clippers match where their holes are at PF/C.. Jonas started 4 of 5 to hand an 8pt lead over to the bench which is nothing new for him vs Clippers. The bench gave up a 14-2 run & momentum where the ball stopped moving & Jonas didn't see touches till 2nd half & the shot clock was run down. Playing his defense in missed shots & TO's because of the lack of ball movement & poor shot selection. Like ZIon, if in these situations you are not utilizing his efficiency.... With those bricks, Green turned to Nance's defense to help cleanup & in doing so amplified the issue, as now Clippers don't have to worry about their weakness at centre & rebounding. Reason Nance finished -21 to Jonas -7.

[Whole Truth]

MF's playing checkers.

(Jonas + young player + pick) for (Allen) = Allens 20m at centre to Jonas 15m, CJ's 30m 2yrs still at PG where he will either have to be resigned at 34 to a max contract, let go in free agency or traded somewhere in between.

Whereas

(CJ, Kira, pick/s) for (Murray, Okongwu) = Murray's 18m at PG for 5yrs of his prime, Okongwu's 8m 5yrs control, who would be starting in Atlanta if not for them losing Capella's value as a starter if they did. With Jonas set to expire at 15m, giving NO's option to extend or save 15m. With Okongwu showing potential he could start, he would be a quality small ball 5 depth option to the current state of the front court with Jonas/Nance for both depth & insurance. Whereas trading Jonas cost effective offense for Allen's defense & 20m adds to the current cap state. with a need to still eventually resugn or replace CJ in a 2yr span at 34 with no safety net behind the gamble of either decision.

It's at this point after getting a look with Okongwu & ZIon Pelicans can use the draft to pick up one of the upside lengthy big men in the draft where the options at centre would be. Extend or clear Jonas 15m, start or keep using Okonqwu as quality depth, Nance PF/C insurance with a upside bigman developing at NO's chosen pace with the available depth. Murray's team friendly contract & 5yrs control means they don't have to worry about replacing CJ's production in 2yrs while getting better defensively at the point of attack. As Murray is putting up identical numbers offensive to CJ with a slight dip in 3pt efficiency with 6 + attempts at 38% where he's not getting the open looks CJ is playing off of a Jonas, Zion or BI's paint gravity.

[Whole Truth]

In case that post was not clear.

(CJ, Kira, pick/s) for (Murray, Okongwu) - with CJ, Kira & picks facilitating Pascal to Atlanta where Raptors flip CJ to a contender with his 44% 3pt shooting in a hot stretch that won't last & has elevated his value.

Jonas (15m expiring). Okongwu 8m 4yrs potential starter, Nance, 24 drafted C after getting look at Okongwu
Zion - Nance - Murphy
BI - Murphy - Naji
Herb - Hawkins - Jose
Murray 18m - Daniels - Jose

This gives the option to extend Jonas expiring or clear 15m based on Okongwu's performance = 20m less than if you were to trade Jonas + for Allens 20m & retain CJ with a need for depth at C & to replace or extend in 2yrs when he's 34. With Allen & no cap space for depth behind him NO's would have to rely on the drafted big man for quality minutes. Nance who has trouble stayin healthy will be a yr older.

Allen 20m, Nance 17m, 24 drafted big man
CJ 35m/2yrs control, where he would have to be resigned at 34 or traded at some other point for value.
vs
Jonas 15m extended or cleared, Okongwu 8m/4yrs control, Nance 17m, drafted big man
Murray 18m/5yrs control

If Okongwu shows he's capable of starting where NO's can choose not to extend Jonas 15.. Murray & Okongwu is 36m to CJ & Allens 55m, which saves NO's 20m waiting a half season to replace Jonas vs CJ down the line.

[Whole Truth]

So to summarize in trading CJ in this package for Murray & Okongwu.

NO's get identical offensive production from Murray but a + defender while getting younger & 5yrs control of a team friendly contract that cuts CJ's max in half. They get quality depth in a small ball 5 that would be starting in Atlanta if they didn't want to lose Capella's value as a starter all while having the potential to clear 20m in choosing to extend Jonas or not after they get a half season & PO look with Okongwu's fit. Which will also help in how they approach the draft for a rookie big man on rookie scale, control & development to offset Naji's, Murphy's & BI's upcoming extensions with team friendly contracts & rookie scale.

[Whole Truth]

With CJ shooting 44% from 3 contenders will highly value that, which is why some want to retain him. However, besides the defensive fit with Zion, It's elevated value in a hot stretch of shooting & it helps close the value gap of Murray in comparison to using Jonas court production, as expiring value for Allen because a half season of Jonas is not solving anything for Cavs, so there would be additional value needed for his court production lost in expiring value. Where Murray is not far off CJ in shooting 38% on 6+ APG while being a +defender. As Daniels with no offense showed how effective a fit that would be. Imagine if Daniels was shooting 38% on 6 APG or if CJ was a +defender like Murray & led the league in steals last yr. You have a plug & play option/fit, with the 2way Murray in cutting CJ's max in half & adding 3yrs control to a younger player.

Assuming CJ has closed the gap in value to Murray with his 44% 3pt shooting on 7 attempts a game

Raptors trade - (Pascal) for (CJ, Kira, pick/s) - they flip CJ's value/control to a contender
Hawks trade - (Murray, Okongwy) for (Pascal, pick/s).
NO's trade - (CJ, Kira, Picks) for (Murray, Okongwu)

[Whole Truth]

I take it everyone has seen the Raptors coach going off on Lakers getting a lopsided whistle in their close lost. Happened to the Clippers in their 3 point loss also just not as obvious.

Hard to swallow owning their pick knowing they could be 4 games under instead of 500 because of those last 2 games alone.

Maybe I'm crazy thinking it's best to hold onto that pick, considering. Then on the other hand, they needed a very lopsided whistle with Davis playing well to beat another sub 500 team. Where one injury to either Davis or James sidelined for a couple weeks probably ends their season. Not to mention, from Feb 28 they play only 1 bottom feeder & 18 teams over 500 in those remaining 23 games.

Nah, I'll take the chances the officiating can only do so much to help a very top heavy team.

[Whole Truth]

I wish some of those poster that read here but post elsewhere, would post here. Would make this a lot easier.

The same posters calling to trade Jonas & keep CJ talking about Jonas rim protection, the 6th ranked defense the team currently has. Trying to accredit CJ's improved defense.

Here's, some facts.

Jonas was drafted to a sub 30 win Raptors team that had Derozan's perimeter defense, traded to a 22 win Memphis team in place of their franchise Gasol, who traded out of Conley to rebuild with a Rookie Ja who doesn't play any defense & then traded to this NO's team, who likewise hadn't made the PO's & was ranked 22nd in defensive rating the year before his arrival.

All 3 of these teams have reached from none PO teams to top 5 in defensive rating with Jonas starting. Say it again for me, rim protection. lol

3 teams is not an not an outlier. As I have posted, his efficiency, elite screening, 3 level gravity, post presence & rebounding all contributes to the fact. People see some late contests at the rim with him being a half step slow, the in ability & slow feet in space which is easy to see but miss everything else. There's a reason his man defense is always worse than his team defense but that team defense has hit heights. What cannot be denied is him being apart of 3 separate teams making the top 5 in defensive rating, where at some point he'd be accredited to that fact. How many other teams has CJ been apart that had a top 5 defensive rating?.

I hope people realize for a good portion of the season Jonas was the lone big man with Nance out.

As I have been saying, you can't be good defensively if you don't put the ball in the basket & offensive efficiency plays into defensive efficiency same way defensive stops plays into transition offense.

Rim protection erases mistakes, ball pressure shrinks the court & speeds up decision making.

Starting lineup with CJ -6
Starting lineup with Daniels +22

Whatever stats you want to pull out with Nance, he's coming off the bench & Daniels started in the toughest portion of the schedule to date with a short bench, down 3 of the teams best shooters.

[Whole Truth]

Is there a better pnr team & point man than Curry.

Jonas just played an entire 3rd Q against Curry and was 21 & 9 on 9-13 shooting, +18 in his 21 mins.

I reiterate +18 in 21 mins with Curry on court but he's going to get played off the court according to some, LMAO.

GS found some success with the center pnr & people jumped on Jonas who was subbed out after 2 plays. Yet when GS continued to run it with success against Nance, none said a word with it's continued success, as GS cut a 19pt lead to 13 in the closing minutes with Nance in for Jonas.

The reason Jonas dominated & wasn't played off the court, is he wasn't an afterthought to heavy guard play. Green went to Herb & Daniels ball pressure to compensate him defensively as he put up 12 consecutive points to reopen the 22pt lead. Jonas getting played off court against teams like this is based in usage & compensation.

JV is not Jokic but if Denver didn't run their offense through Jokic his defense would get played off the court too.

[Whole Truth]

So many good obvious things to point to after this win. I want to put some light on the not so obvious.

First Q with NO's putting up 46pts. Zion unselfishly played the role of facilitator, had 2pts in the offensive barrage. With these TV personalities calling him out, another young player might have been tempted to force his game with his teammates playing well & disrupt the flow by trying to get his to prove a point.

Then 3rd Q when he struggled a bit Green subbed him & instead of eating away, from the bench he was cheering Jonas domination on instead of being up in his feelings after a rough stretch.

Then 4th Q he came out & blew the lid off of the game in dominant fashion. Showing a team first, mentality & support.

But you know, he doesn't want to be here.

[Whole Truth]

With the way the Pelicans are playing & though I still think my trade for Murray is logically the right move in multiple aspects despite CJ playing well. I'll approach from the human aspect & shelve the talk.

Suggest a small trade of Kira, Zeller & pick for a defensive rim runner to bridge Jonas & Nance. Not messing with the chemistry the team seems to be building.

[Whole Truth]

Pelicans starting lineup with one of CJ or Jonas replaced with a defensive option -

Jonas - Zion - BI - Herb - Daniels over CJ = 89 mins, +21, +108 3PT%

CJ - Herb - BI - Zion - Nance over Jonas = 20mins, +22, +062 3Pt%

The problem is obvious, there's not enough defensive balance with the young core of BI/ZION & herb with both Jonas & CJ sharing the court with them. These 2 lineups show either can be replaced by a defensive option to upgrade & there's solutions in house for that defensive balance, if used correctly based in matchup. Problem is there's only been flexibility where Jonas/Nance is concerned, when there should be with CJ/Daniels. if Jonas has favorable matchups.

Not pushing trade but to make a point -

Your target to replace Jonas with Allen. He can't hit an open 3 like Nance can so there's potential issues with spacing. He also adds to the cap situation at 20m for a defensive rim runner over Jonas efficiency cost. With Jonas being an expiring contract, you would lose his court production to expiring value, having to attach more asset value to compensate the necessary value for Allen in the salary match.

Murray as my target. Is shooting 38% on 6+ attempts per game in relation to having no spacing with Daniels. That slight dip in efficiency from CJ, you're getting a + defender who led the league in steals last yr at 18m less than Allen's 20m & half the cost of CJ's 33 max with 3 additional yrs control of a 27yo 2way player in his prime. With CJ on a hot streak shooting 44% on volume, his value is at a peak requiring less assets for the above mentioned benefits.

[Whole Truth]

If Magic are still interested in Lavine for spacing & Isaac is still rumored as a piece in trade. I'd throw pick value at the rebuilding Chicago for Isaac, with Kira, Zeller as salary filler.