Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

[Whole Truth]

Saw Magic are betting favorites to land BI. I was thinking CJ to Magic because of their need for spacing but if the mock trade for BI is what Magic are offering, I like it, especially seeing Hawks have interest in Isaac. Netting Suggs gives NO's the option to move Daniels.

(Isaac, Suggs, Wagner, TPE, 2025 first, 2026 first).

Isaac is a top notch defender but injury prone despite not playing heavy minutes. He's not a starter but he could backup Okongwu in Atlanta. Suggs is another young potential 2 way player still on rookie scale & control. He has a QO in 26 where he'll need to be extended. Depending on the potential extension, NO's might prefer Murray's team friendly contract for the next 4yrs or it may be to flip him in order to retain Daniels. The 25 first adds a 3rd pick in 25 & the 26 a 3rd in that draft. NO's would own 6 draft picks in the next 2 yrs & if they shed enough salary in this Magic trade maybe an avenue to sign a free agent C...

Part reason why I was thinking soft reset in targeting Sarr's 2 way potential on rookie scale & control, in trading BI, was the fact that next draft could be a haul for NO's in a worse case trade & development scenario. If trading BI has a negative impact, along with a potential Lakers collapse & this extra first from Magic. NO's could have a lot of leverage in a strong draft in a worse case scenario.

[Whole Truth]

Jabari Smith JR was ranked 9th in D- Lebron. I still think he would have been a better offensive fit with Zion.

Same thing with Sarr. I think he will be a better fit with Zion than developing in Atlanta. He will struggle with zone defenses early but when developed, be the unicorn Pels need to fully compliment Zion's game, where NO's don't want their C operating in the paint outside of rim running & vertical spacing. He's not a half measure like hoping a one dimensional big man who doesn't even take 3's with 2yrs control, would fit offensively. Allen is an expensive band aid for letting value like Jonas walk. People keep mentioning fit but Jonas had the best 2 man pairing with Zion of the starters & better yet when Daniels elite perimeter defense played over CJ. A defensive C who can't space the floor, is more to cover for CJ's perimeter defense than to cater to teams zoning Zion. Let that sink in if you're trying to build around Zion.

It would be terrible asset management to lose Jonas to free agency only to trade BI for a one dimensional big man, as I've seen the BI for Allen trade rumors. I kind of want to see it. I know it won't be long before the real issue is exposed, if you still don't know it. Offensive hierarchy & perimeter defense. Zion was averaging 18 APG with Daniels starting & around 10-12 with BI & CJ starting. Daniels was 12% usage, 5 APG & elite man defense, which provided the starters with a +20 rating in 100 minutes. I still see fans promoting a high usage guard who's averaging 19 APG & possess worse defense than CJ. I guarantee, it won't end pretty.

With Trae voicing his displeasure about Atlanta passing on Pascal with Pacers PO success. Atlanta can't draft potential, which is at the top of this draft if they decide to keep or can't trade Young.

I hope NO's don't give them that avenue. My top target from Atlanta is the #1 pick, not Murray. Turning CJ into Murray was my initial intent not BI. If you are trading BI, I'd want the #1 pick coming back in any return. As Zion & BI worked with a defensive guard & no rim protection.

[Whole Truth]

Last night I posted a rumored Magic trade offer for BI, this morning I'm seeing a similar offer from the Raptors.

Magic - (Isaac, Suggs, Wagner, 25 FRP, 26 FRP)
Raptors - (Poeltl, Ogbaji, Boucher, Raptors 25 FRP, Indiana 26 FRP)

Isaac > Poeltl but Isaac is more of a backup & injury prone in less minutes
Suggs > Agbaji also depends on role, Agbaji is more of s complimentary player than Suggs
Wagner = Boucher
Magic or Denver 25 < Raptors 25 pick, especially, if unprotected
Magic or Suns 26 = Pacers 26

A lotto teams, lotto projected pick in 25 could grease Atlanta giving up the #1 pick seeing the draft is based in potential if they decide to continue with Young if the player/s in trade are desirable to them.

If NO's kept Poeltl to start & bridge a development gap. What would it take to net Murray & the #1 pick ?
I think Hawks traded Agbaji for Murray not sure, would they want him back ?
Would you give up Daniels for Sarr & use Agbaji to replace ?

IMO the goal should be to have both Sarr & Daniels developing behind 2 starters at C & point, bridging their development gap to raise this teams defensive ceiling. Both these elite & potential elite defenders also have the potential to space the floor.

Poeltl - Sarr
Zion - Nance
Murphy - Daniels
Herb - Hawkins
Murray - Jose/Daniels

[Whole Truth]

I keep saying peoples thinking is too one dimensional. They can't see past their noses.

There's a supposed Bulls offer of (Lavine, Caruso, 25 Spurs top 8, Bulls 28).

Earlier in the yr Magic had linked interest to Lavine as they need his spacing & creation ability. It's the rumor that gave me the idea to trade a healthier CJ's elite spacing & creation ability to Magic for a similar offer. With Isaac centering that deal. You have 2 good players with injury risk centering the deal. The Bulls offer may be the Magic preferring Lavine because of age. NO's Keep Caruso, there would be no need for Murray if NO's prefer his offensive fit more.

(Lavine, Bulls 28) flipped to Magic for (Isaac, Suggs & TPE)

I(Isaac, Suggs, #21, Spurs 25 top 8 & or Lakers 25) for (Okongwu, #1)

Okongwu - Sarr
Zion - Nance
Murphy - Daniels
Herb - Hawkins
Caruso - Jose/Daniels

[Whole Truth]

2 Western teams have interest in trading up for Clingan. Is one of those teams NO's ?

I know some Hawk links that think Clingan is a better fit with their team where I can see them trading down for Clingan.

I'm growing on the Ingram for Garland trade but want Sarr over Allen.

Sarr over Allen
Cost & control - 12m rookie scale vs 20m & 2yr impending FA, as a defensive rim runner out the gate.
Switch ability, fits better with what Green wants to do defensively
3 pt potential vs not even attempting them, which is necessary when teams zone Zion
Handles
He's every bit the rim runner & vertical spacer

Allen over Sarr
Experience vs development
Passing
Post up defense, Sarr needs strength training

[Whole Truth]

I had Mathurin over Daniels
I had Miller over Scoot

I have broken the mold of wanting the defensive C prospect with offensive potential because of the need for it with this team. In a guards league, I'm usually against drafting big men high in the draft. So many good C's drafted late, even 2nd round.

I had Pels trading in for Lively last yr but he was outside the top 10. The #1 pick has a high cost risk/potential factor but I think Sarr is it for this team. A good fit with both Green & Zion.

Would like to hear you at least worked him out.

[Whole Truth]

I don't know why I do this to myself, lol. NO's reddit ask why, why not Murray.

Poster says Zion needs spacing. when CJ was arguably one of or best 3pt shooters last yr on volume, yet had the worse 2 man pairing with Zion of the starters & Daniels. To put some perspective. CJ & the offensive Jonas, were a positive pairing because teams weren't trying to zone with Zion off court. Shows that teams zone affected the spacing threat. Why ? because they simply opted to play off of good shooters. I mean herb shot 40% on respectable volume & still didn't help.

As AD has pointed out on his commentary. Teams have opted to leave 40% shooters open to pack the paint, send help defense. NO's have only 2 threats. Which is why Nance kind of worked with Murphy in over BI, paired with CJ. The only 2 threats NO's have that teams will close out on despite efficiency numbers. The poison they picked is to contain the paint & Zion where his game is predictable. Which is why I talked about diversifying it, not just for Zion but his teammates. We all know where Zion is most efficient but offenses that are predictable are easier to defend. See a team starting 4 offensive players struggling more offensively than defensively. it was night & day for NO's when they were shooting well or not. With Jonas & CJ, there was no defensive comp to the team struggling to shoot but it became a rim protection problem instead of point of attack problem, most likely because of the CJ 30m extension. Jonas, Zion, BI paired with Herb & Daniels +20 100 mins. Has turned into Jonas & Zion not fitting but CJ who has the worse numbers in most lineups with Zion, Jonas or not. His spacing is seen as the ideal fit, LMAO

Why Daniels 12% usage, 5 APG & 30% 3pt shooting on low volume, where NO's were playing 4 on 5 worked?

3 reasons. IN Daniels low usage & FGA's Zion was averaging 18 APG on 60% efficiency, BI became a clear #2 playmaker & Daniels elite defensive compensation also allowed Herb to roam balancing the rotation on both ends despite Daniels raw offensive skillset. The lineup even with BI became more Zion centric but with defensive compensation.

To back this up. The best lineup +30 which only had 90 minutes featured Nance, Marshall, Murphy & Jose with Zion. 3 defenders around Zion who are not all threats but can hit an open 3 & pressure the ball, defend the rim.

A Zion centric offense with ample defensive compensation & ability, willingness to punish an open shot

Sarr, 7 foot, 6'10 wingspan, with elite switch ability that fits Greens defensive scheme. An athletic defender rim runner with handles who can lead a break off a rebound, play at pace. 30% 3pt shooter on low volume, 70% FT shooter with NO's having one of the better 3pt shooting coaches.

[Whole Truth]

When you swing for the fence, it matters what pitch you swing at.

Lavine is 29, an injury risk, large contract & not much of a defensive upgrade.

Sarr is 18, has transferable skill, a skillset that fits, offensive potential & is on rookie scale & control.

As mentioned in brief last night. 25 is aiming to a be a strong draft, Lakers pick has lotto potential, if trading BI for a soft reset, NO's could potentially land 2 lotto picks in a worse case trade & development scenario. First half of the season doesn't pan out, turn to developing Daniels, Hawkins & Sarr.

The soft reset makes the 25 draft a pivotal one. You will have a young core of Herb, Murphy, Daniels, Hawkins, Sarr potentially 2 lotto picks & a directional option on Zion.

[Whole Truth]

From the Atlanta board. A draft tweet says almost all of Sarr's 3pt attempts were from above the break or wing.

He shot 14% off the dribble but 35% on catch & shoot 3's.

NO's don't really need Sarr dribbling into a 3.

[Whole Truth]

Pure entertainment for me reading the Pistons board.

NO's Pels fans, we need to get rid of Jonas for a rim protector, trade for Duren.
Detroit fans, we need to trade Duren for a rim protector & a better defender

NO's fans, Duren is good fit with Zion
Detroit fans, Duren can't protect the rim, defend or shoot

NO's Pels fans, I really like Ivey
Pistons fans, we need to trade Ivey before he loses the potential tag. He's fast but can't defend or shoot

Kind of reminds you of NAW. Maybe with Ivey there's something to reclaim.

Detroit fans don't think the #1 pick is worth Duren, #5. I hope they're right in terms of perceived value. I'd bet they'll be wrong again. That's how you put together a 14 win season.

[Whole Truth]

A little change of pace. Clippers are eyeing Derozan in a potential PG sign & trade with Chicago.

CJ has 2 more yrs left at 35m. Half of a 4yr PG extension. Factor the last yr at worse PG will be a large expiring contract, The difference contractually between CJ & PG would be 1 yr for the clear 2 way upgrade.
 
I'm thinking (Nance, CJ 35m 2yrs, necessary pick value) for (PG 4yrs S&T)

In my trade interest for Murray, I've had Daniels as his eventual replacement whether that was sooner or later, depending on his development curve. NO's could reach a point Daniels makes PG expendable to trade. Trading Nance, CJ with value for PG is dead money for dead money, a lateral financial move, not a BI extension, payroll increase..

Offset that acquisition cost by trading BI to address the center rotation with expiring value attached. Trade him to Cavs for Allen & flip Allen, necessary pick value to Atlanta for Capela #1

Cavs trade - (Allen, Lavert, 30 pick swap) for (BI)

Clippers S&T trade - (PG) for (CJ, Nance, Lavert, #21, Cavs 30 swap)

Hawks trade - (Capela 2yrs, #1 rookie scale & control) for (Allen 2yrs, NO's 25 FRP)

NO's trade - (BI, CJ, Nance, #21, NO's/Lakers 25) for (PG, Capela, #1)

#1 Sarr - Capela
Zion - ?
Murphy - Daniels
Herb - Hawkins/Daniels
George - Jose/Daniels

The only financial increase is Murphy's extension. The team would need some depth behind the often injured Zion & some injury luck.

[Whole Truth]

Reed Shepard's 3pt shooting -

56% on open 3's (31-55)
49% on contested 3's (25-51)
50% off the dribble (17-34)
48.4% on deep 3's (15-31)

It's too bad NO's couldn't get both Sarr & Shepard out this draft. Potential Unicorn & zone buster.

2.58 block rate at 6'3 speaks to his athleticism & timing.

55 steals in 22 games. Good with the bad. Calipari says he has good hands but he gambles too much.

Too bad NO's couldn't find a way to come out this draft with Sarr & Reed.

[Whole Truth]

This is not exact value but frame work of an idea.

BI to Cavs for Garland

Garland to Spurs for 4 & 8

Hawkins, #8, #21, NO's 25 to Hawks for #1

(Sarr at 1, Sheppard at 4) for (BI, Hawkins, #21, 25 first)

[Whole Truth]

Building around POINT Zion. I will list in order the rumored available guard targets & reason why I think they fit or don't fit outside the obvious reasons ..

Trae Young - At his lowest usage in his career playing with/off Murray since being a rookie, he's at a 30% usage rate. Young is nowhere near as effective playing off ball & it's a big reason why the Murray experiment failed. An offensive usage downgrade for Young where he's most valuable, while Murray was less effective guarding SG's apposed to PG's, where his defense was valued as a Spur. Young averaged 25pts but on 19 APG. CJ 20 on 16 APG. Young's benefit to Zion would have to be in an off ball role with him being a spacing threat, which he is.. However, considering CJ was very effective spacing the court this past season shooting 42% on 8 APG to a negative result because of the defensive pairing. Young is arguably a worse defender as hard as that is to imagine. If you want POINT Zion, you're reducing Young's usage where his value comes from impacting the game offensively, on ball. Off ball, he' negatively impacts the game defensively. That's before we get to a 40m price tag for an off ball spacing role which will negatively affect the defense & cap management. Young maybe a talented guard for the right team but not if you want to get the most out of Zion on both ends. The higher usage one is, the lower the other, where both become defensive liabilities in reduced usage. As far as Young is concerned offensively, Zion is more efficient in higher usage than he is.

Garland - While his usage is not as high, like Young, when they paired Garland with DM his production & effectiveness dipped. Worse yet, the Cavs proved to be better with DM than Garland when he got injured, where Garland is more of a point guard & facilitator than DM. Why was a scoring guard more effective for the Cavs with Allen in the middle. Garland has a high drive & kick rate where Allen occupies space in the paint for spacing issues. DM is more of a scoring & spacing threat. Garland wants to drive & kick, NO's can position Zion in the corner for an open 3. Better yet, pair the 2 with Allen in the middle, should be fun trying to find the space to drive & kick.

Murray - While some of the same offensive issues, Murray, Is the best defender of the available options, so him & Herb would at least compliment Zion, defensively. Daniels having started 10 games in CJ's absence. The starters minus CJ with Daniels 12% usage, 5 APG, 30% 3pt shooting & elite man defense, had a net 20 rating in 100 minutes against a strong part of the schedule where with 5 wins against PO teams in 10 games played short a bench. Daniels elite perimeter man D & non existent offensive threat had the best 2 man pairing with Zion. Murray would be a defensive downgrade from Daniels but he's a more capable & willing threat to space the floor & has a more refined PG skillset where NO's struggled to take care of the ball. Pels would do well to lower his usage & shot attempts & hopefully with Zion creating open looks, it will increase his efficiency paired with his defense. That said with him as a target, I would not move Daniels as a small offensive leap, Daniels would replace Murray at some point as the better defender.

Reed Sheppard - Has the instinct, timing & athleticism to be good defensively but he gambles & is often out of position. The tools & potential however, are there. Offensively, he's a zone buster who doesn't need much space to hit at a high rate. He would cheaply replace what CJ brings to the table with defensive potential. With Zion, Murphy & Herb hovering at his 40% revelation, teams won't be able to cheat like they have been. Reason Nance semi worked with Murphy & CJ spacing (+10, 80 mins) but Nance while offensively limited, can hit an open 3 at a high rate. Trading for a C who doesn't even attempt 3's. Take a guess who teams will cheat off of.. might still be effective but not as effective as a C willing to hit an open 3. NO's would have a 2yr window to find out as a result of limited control where Allen is concerned.

[Whole Truth]

Trade 1 -

Magic trade ((Isaac or Carter), #18, TPE) for (CJ)

Trade 2 -

Spurs trade - (Keldon, #4, #8) for (Garland, #18, NO's/Lakers 25)

Cavs trade - (Garland) for (BI)

Hawks trade - (Capella, Murray, #1) for ((Isaac or Carter), Keldon, Hawkins, #4, #21)

NO's trade - (BI, CJ, Hawkins, #21, NO's/Lakers 25) for (Capella, Murray, #1, #8)

Capela - #1 Sarr
Zion - Nance
Murphy - Daniels
Herb - #8 Sheppard
Murray - Jose/Daniels

[Whole Truth]

Yesterday I talked about Sarr's handle, ability to grab the rebound & push pace. I just saw that mentioned in a Hawk tweet.

Time for me to go quiet & let NO's do their thing but before I do. Atlanta going with Sarr's potential with him having some transferable out the gate skills & not trading Trae can be an explosive mistake, with Trae already taking shots at not trading for a 3 month rental in Pacal to improve. Time & patience is not on Atlanta's side.

[Whole Truth]

Fans still rating targets on their perceived individual talent level & not overall fit with Zion. Fox's name now thrown in the ring.

Like Garland what makes Fox good ? his speed ability to get into lanes. What happens to his driving ability when teams opt to zone Zion & sag off of either or both Herb & say a defensive C who isn't willing to take 3's.

I kind of want to see it.

It's arguable Fox & Murray are similar threats from 3, no debate who's the better defender.

For a supporting off ball defending & spacing role.

Young 40m/1yr + player option
Fox 35m/2yrs
Murray 25m/4yrs

The offensive fit is a tricky one with the way teams opt to defend Zion. Both Garland & Fox need driving lanes as they're not the spacing threat Young is. Daniels elite defense over CJ elite spacing showed the impact of not having a defender with Zion at this position,

Defense, contract & control << Murray.

[Whole Truth]

keep saying Jonas & BI don't fit with Zion. It won't make it any more true.

Jonas - Zion - BI - Herb - Daniels +20 100 mins
Nance - Zion - BI - Herb - CJ -6.5 140 mins
Nance - Zion - Murphy - Herb - CJ +10 80 mins

Both Jonas & BI worked when you didn't have CJ's additional usage & defense in the rotation.

Daniels 12% usage, 5 APG, 30% shooting & elite defense >>>>>> CJ

Murphy's spacing in for BI with CJ allowed for a defensive C to cover defensively for mistakes but it's far from the best build around Zion. A C that can take his man out the paint & defensive point proved to be the more effective balance.

Ideally
You'd want a C that can both defend & take his man out the paint - Sarr's potential
PG that effectively play off ball & defend - Daniels, with range

I think both Sarr & Daniels could be this teams eventual solution to build around Zion. The moves made now like Murray, is more to bridge that gap, satisfy Zion's desire to contend, while developing.

[jayu70]

If NO's are trading BI to Atlanta or 3rd team for preference, I'd be looking at Murray & #1 Sarr where it would be a benefit to take back 2yrs of Capela to bridge a development gap. Which would hold value to Hawks in trade.

I'd deal for Allen if it meant he went to Atlanta for Okongwu & #1 Sarr. Start Okongwu & develop Sarr. Both with better contracts, control, switch ability & spacing potential. Same principle with Daniel's developing behind Murray, raising the teams ceiling. When Sarr develops, NO's can flip Okongwu who's also on a value contract.

C = Okongwu - #1 Sarr
PG = Murray - Daniels

.
There is no way the Hawks are doing either of these deals:
Murray and #1 for Ingram
Okongwu and #1 for Allen
Capela has 1 year left not 2.
The only interest King Ken has in trading down from #1 for #7 and #14 (which is just bad value asset management) is to draft Edey who he thinks is an MVP candidate playing with Trae.

[Whole Truth]

If NO's are trading BI to Atlanta or 3rd team for preference, I'd be looking at Murray & #1 Sarr where it would be a benefit to take back 2yrs of Capela to bridge a development gap. Which would hold value to Hawks in trade.

I'd deal for Allen if it meant he went to Atlanta for Okongwu & #1 Sarr. Start Okongwu & develop Sarr. Both with better contracts, control, switch ability & spacing potential. Same principle with Daniel's developing behind Murray, raising the teams ceiling. When Sarr develops, NO's can flip Okongwu who's also on a value contract.

C = Okongwu - #1 Sarr
PG = Murray - Daniels

.
There is no way the Hawks are doing either of these deals:
Murray and #1 for Ingram
Okongwu and #1 for Allen
Capela has 1 year left not 2.
The only interest King Ken has in trading down from #1 for #7 and #14 (which is just bad value asset management) is to draft Edey who he thinks is an MVP candidate playing with Trae.

My trades are more concept than exact value. I have no links to know how Hawks value their assets.

What do you think of (Murray #1) for (Ingram, #21 & a projected Lotto pick in 25).