Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

[Whole Truth]

I view Hunters contract as neutral to negative but what do you think NO's or other teams think about giving BI 50m where he also has injury risk ... injury risk at 20m > 50m

NO's break that 50m into Murray's value contract at 30m & Hunters neutral to negative 20m.

Murray can be flipped as a value contract under the new cap
Hunters value can be built back up, worse case it's easier to move off 20m than 50 if BI gets injured.

Herb's elite perimeter defense on a 12m contract for Sarr's unicorn potential at 12m as well as adjusting fit for both teams + financial adjustment, is the crux of the trade. Moving Hunter allows Hawks to extend BI. Getting Murray & Hunter allows NO's to breakup BI's extension into more manageable assets & potentially better fitting pieces.

[Whole Truth]

lol, NO's fans willing to pay 20m for a defensive rim runner who plays in drop coverage that doesn't take 3's, is about to expire or hit a pay day & think it's too much to pay 12m for a 19yo who will be a very good switch defender, shot blocker form day 1 as his floor. Sarr has offensive potential Allen doesn't have & while the price tag of the #1 pick is considerable at 12m, when Herb's current contract is up he will be a hot commodity as a UFA with NO's near or in the luxury tax. Sarr being on rookie scale would be a restricted free agent for better control.

Projections are estimations, estimations are guesses lol, Some of you should look up Curry's draft report, they barely had him as a starter more less MVP. If the draft wasn't a bit of guess work nobody passes on players like Jokic who went 2nd round. The amount of player comparisons that have been off, is staggering. Almost every defensive wing coming in gets comped to Kawhi by half full opinions, or one dimensional players by half empty opinions, lol. Mobley & JJJ are different players yet the same people have them all grouped as the same because they play defense & shoot 3's.

Sarr has the tools to expand his offense well beyond being a 3 & D, defensive floor spacer. That is my bottom projection for his skillset, as I prefer not to be overly optimistic when dealing with risk potential. I fully expect that out of him but think there's more upside. He has above average court vision, above average passing ability & workable handles as a 19yo that can improve which would help him build a face up game. So besides being able to help push pace off a rebound, when Zion collapses defenses & kicks, Sarr can take a hard closeout off the dribble.

Herb is not a price I want to pay but if that is what it costs for Sarr, I would. Not for Allen, not for Okongwu, for Sarr, yes. NO's have Daniels who's every bit the elite defender to possibly fill Herbs shoes, tell me who's that unicorn you got in the gapping hole at C.

Half the people making these statements don't even know who is going #1 more less have an educated guess on his skillset, lol. They're going off people calling this a weak draft. Tell me you know how a 19 yo's career will progress, I'll tell you, you're full of ****. This is an educated guess that if it pans out NO's have their unicorn & best option to fit next to Zion where it's easier to find a 3D wing than Unicorn C & NO's already have Daniels who's still 20, elite defense in the wing developing.

[Whole Truth]

Offensively, Sarr is going to struggle with the zones teams throw at Zion but he's going to be out the box ready defensively & is everything Green wants from his C on the defensive side of things. Reason I tossed resigning Jonas to bridge a development gap if NO's want to stay competitive in the short term.

It's a soft reset to net the potential best fitting C next to Zion who's less expensive, better cost controlled than anything proven that fits the mold. Sarr at 19 is ahead of the curve from 3 for big men & should reach a point of being a capable floor spacer with NO's shooting coach improving Ball, Herb & Daniels showing progression.

Losing Herb stings but you can't get the #1 pick without giving up something they want. Having Daniels elite defense, versatility & offensive potential at 20 in the wings defeloping, gives NO's an in house potential replacement to losing Herb. Murray & CJ would bridge his offensive development gap. Daniels elite defense had the best 2 man pairing with Zion, any leap offensively, which at 20 there certainly will be, only improves the defensive fit.

The good of the bad with this small reset, one down season, be it Zion injury, missing BI, poor chemistry or development pains, would mean NO's could potentially have 2 lotto picks in the 25 draft with Lakers pick having some lotto projection. Which opens many avenues to trade up for something specific, trade out for something specific or just plain add quality depth with potential to eventually cheaply replace. Have proven young assets for another big move, trade. As teams prefer young & proven over potential. Especially if trading for a 2nd star.

[Whole Truth]

I hate the thought of potentially trading Herb, he's a fan favorite & very good player, teammate but some food for thought.

in 3yrs Herb is going to be a UFA in demand with NO's near or in the luxury tax.
in 3yrs Sarr will be facing restricted free agency as it's harder to net a unicorn C than 3D wing.
in 3yrs Daniels will be only 23 & could have the 3 ball in his arsenal to effectively replace.

[Whole Truth]

I'm dying lol, NO's fans acting like NO's would be trading into a weak draft just because. When the reason to trade into a draft is because you strongly believe in the target you're trading for.

Weak or strong draft risk applies to every move made. Trade multiple picks risking draft rights for a proven player & he doesn't fit or produce because of a poor fit, his value drops, like Murray in Atlanta.. Trade for better fitting pieces, you potentially lose 1-1 value. Trade for potential you either gain value or risk potentially losing value.

Keep Herb, find out BI was a bigger impact than anticipated, Zion proves he can't stay healthy, fail to contend in the next couple yrs & Herb is hitting free agency with the team near or in the luxury tax. Where he would be a hot commodity under limited control & financial resourse ..

I hope you know all this is happening because of the CJ trade & max extension.

[G R E Y]

Spurs board let me know Wemby told them he wants to be a primary option so they have no interest in Sarr. Hawks open to trading down, If NO's can net 4 & 8, I can see an avenue with Atlanta for #1, while potentially drafting Reed in combination.

Sarr wants to start, not compete with Wemby for minutes. Hawks have Okongwu ready to start. If Sarr wants to start, I can see why Atlanta who wants to contend with Young, is open to trading down.

NO's have no starting C. I say follow OKC & start Sarr, who should hold his own defensively. Worse case, 25 is a strong draft & NO's would benefit from his development minutes. As the justification of being a #1 pick should afford him to start on a team with a clear opening.

Spurs want a backup big, guards 1-3 who can defend or shoot & have interest in Garland. I'm thinking BI for Garland, pair him with a backup big from a CJ trade & Daniels if it means both Spurs picks.

Trade 1 -
Magic trade - (Carter) for (Keldon)

Cavs trade - (Garland) for (BI, Spurs FRP)

Spurs trade - (Collins, Keldon, #4, #8, FRP) for (Carter, Garland, Daniels)

NO's trade - (BI, Daniels) for (Collins, Keldon, #4, #8)

Trade 2 -
NO's trade - (Collins, #8, #21, NO's/Lakers 25) for (Capela, #1)

More accurately, Sarr's camp let it be known to teams that Sarr is to be a team's #1 option.

On first glance, I am warming up to this trade... Have to think about it some more when more coherent.

[Whole Truth]

In the Hawks trade of (Murray, Hunter, #1) for (BI, Herb)

Hawks don't want to trade the #1 because they think Herb is in trade to help move BI's negative contract/risk. Not that he's added player & contract value to BI.

[Whole Truth]

Gray shared a tweet that has Spurs trading up 4 & 8 for #1 & Atlanta appear interested in trading down for multiple opportunity. Like Clingan plus.

Supposedly Spurs didn't like Sarr wanting to be a primary option & his camp had some issues with Wemby,'s camp, so this news seems odd.

Itt got me thinking. If Hawks don't want Herb, I know who would. According to Rusty on the spurs board they want 3 & D starters 1-3 on value & there's none better fitting that description than Herb.

Spurs & NO's working to pair
Wemby + Herb.
Sarr +ZIon + Daniels
Hawks maximize the risk in this draft by trading down.

[Whole Truth]

Cavs trade (Garland) for (BI Spurs FRP)

Spurs trade (Keldon, Collins, #4, #8, FRP) for (Garland, Herb)

Hawks trade (Murray, #1) for (Keldon, #4, #8)

NO's trade (BI, Herb) for (Murray, Collins, #1)

[Whole Truth]

Putting context to stats. Fan asks, what do the following numbers mean.

B, Z, and CJ had a net rating of +3 when on the court together.
B and Z had a rating of +13.4.
B and CJ net rating was +13.2.
Z and CJ net rating was +5.4

B,Z & CJ is the starting lineup. With all three there's offensive overlap & not much defensive compensation. They had worse results with Nance defense than Jonas offense, mainly because of spacing & rebounding but not good results with either overall. Nance's man effectively helped off of him & teams were getting 3-4 offensive possessions off a lack of rebounding between Nance & Zion. Any C coming in has to be able to rebound, if you're using your C to space the court, your guards should be strong rebounders.

B & Z had a +13.4 net rating. This would be mainly starters with Daniels over CJ. With Daniels 12% usage, 5 APG & 30% shooting, Zion was averaging 18 APG on 60% efficiency apposed to the 8-12 APG with BI & CJ averaging 30 APG on 45% efficiency. BI was also the clear #2 & was more effective with CJ not trying to shoot himself into a rhythm. Daniels in comparison with no offensive game moved the ball quickly which led to better overall ball movement. Where with the BIG 3 lol there was a lot more ISO's in a slower pace. Where Herb & Daniels combined ball pressure resulted in better pace, better rim protection, more stls, more blk's, defenses not being set & transition offense. In the half court with CJ out & Herb not being the 40% shooter he close the season at, there was no effective spacing threat in the best offensive rating lineup this past season. With Jonas, Zion & BI's offense, Herb & Daniels balanced them defensively. Where spacing was an issue they found solution in transition, Zion being higher usage & the ball moving from the guards hands quickly to shift the defense. Not waiting for the clock to run down trying to ISO.

B & CJ +13.2 net rating. This would be mainly starters with ZIon injured in some games or resting against weak competition like Detroit etc. So it's a softer + rating despite being the worse pairing.

Offensive overlap & defense. NO's fans give us Young. Where I would not pay a trade price for Young only to watch his usage & defense decreases ZIon's worth on court & vice versa. What traits did Ball, Jrue & Daniels have in common, who fit best with Zion... Spurs fan said Spurs radio mentioned Hawks supposedly want Vessell & 5 firsts for Young. NO's could effectively trade BI for Allen & a young player, picks for Trae but I guarantee, NO's will regret it. A big that can't shoot 3's, A high usage PG that will take usage from Zion with worse defensive compensation than CJ. Good luck with that. Looks good on paper though.

[Whole Truth]

Everything has pros & cons. Trading for a rookie like Sarr, the cons are obvious. The development curve with ZIon wanting to win now & bust potential.

What are the benefits of trading proven BI for unproven Sarr ?

- Salary/cap, rookie scale & control vs 50m max extension
- Fit, Sarr out the box is a 7'' lengthy switch defender at the 5 that defends how Green wants
- Potential, at 18, Sarr was 30% from 3 on low volume & ahead of the curve for most big men.

Trade risk of reset potential ceiling vs lateral fit -

Either direction if things don't go as planned post trade & it's a down year. With a trade for Sarr. Zion would be 24, Murphy 24, Hawkins 23, Daniels 21 & Sarr 20 with a good draft pick in 25, a Lakers pick with some lotto projection as the alternative to being able to compete post trade, win/win you're not coming out worse for the ware in a worse case scenario. These young players & high picks give all kinds of trade & directional leverage. Teams rebuilding from stars prefer young proven talent over pure pick packages. Then you look at the alternative in trading for someone like Allen, who would have 1yr remaining on his contract before he becomes a free agent at a 20m pay raise or someone like Young not panning out with Zion & losing value after you empty the cupboard like Hawks did for Murray's fit, where teams will be thinking they can't effectively build with his defense having flopped in a new setting.

Factor, If Zion proves post BI he can't stay healthy to carry a team. Would you rather have Sarr on rookie scale/control, with potential, a high pick in 25 giving NO's an option to pivot direction into a quick rebuild from the soft reset or an expiring Allen nearing free agency & or Young who you gave all your draft capital for but are now a worse version of Atlanta with an injured ZIon, Young's depressed value, pick capital gone because of his trade value & an expiring Allen facing free agency or pay day from 20m? who will walk from the situation for greener pastures. most likely. easy answer as far as I'm concerned.

Sarr reaches his full potential he's the ideal switch defending, rim running, pace pushing, vertical spacing, 7' foot floor spacing threat with handles to take his man off the dribble on a Zion kick, to ideally compliment him on both ends & he'd be on rookie scale & control for better cap health. As ZIon's post gravity & physicality compliment Sarr's lack of a post game. I'm against trading Herb as is everyone but the unicorn C is harder to obtain than a production/value 3D guard who's reached his peak. What softens the blow, is a 20yo Daniels is arguably as good or a better defender now (#2 in d-Lerbon) still on rookie scale/control for similar financial value/control, having shown he has potential from range to reach the point of earning the 3D label, to effectively & potentially replace Herb internally, in finding that unicorn option. Ideally of course, you try to keep Herb if you can but if he's the price, you pay it for the reasons stated.

Herb is 12m/3yts.. NO's if they trade BI for equal money vs rookie scale will be facing luxury tax territory. In 3yrs, Herb is not going to be a value contract in free agency, he will be a hot commodity. Sarr & Daniels will be restricted free agents in comparison. A unicorn C & equally good perimeter defender improving from 3 to allow Herb to go in trade for the unicorn & better cost & control overall than BI/Herb.

[Whole Truth]

I've got the Spurs & Hawks board agreeing on a potential trade.

Cavs trade - (Garland) for (BI, #21)

Spurs trade - (Keldon, Collins, 4, 8, FRP) for (Garland, Herb)

Hawks trade - (Murray, #1) for (Keldon, 4, 8, Spurs FRP)

NO's trade - (BI, Herb, #21) for (Murray, Collins, #1)

Sarr - Collins
Zion - Nance
Murphy - Daniels
CJ - Hawkins
Murray - Jose

Detroit on the trade board is willing to take all of CJ's salary in trade, NO's could sign a free agent C. They could also trade (Ivey, cap space) for (CJ +?). If NO's do this they can potentially sign a free agent C in replacing CJ with the younger Ivey.

#1 Sarr - FA Jonas - Collins
Zion - Nance - Collins
Murphy - Daniels
(Ivey, Hawkins, Daniels)
Murray - Jose

[Whole Truth]

Ivey & Daniels are not shooters. With Sarr & Murray over Jonas & CJ defensively, Hawkins & Murphy on the wing might be a viable spacing option.

NO's could also use Ivey as a trade chip.

[Whole Truth]

Rounding out a deal with a Detroit mod. We came to

NO's trade (CJ, protected 25 pick in the teens) for (Ivery, 28m TPE)

The money saved allows NO's to sign a C to bridge Sarr's development Ivey is a young potential PG on a 7m contract, where CJ is 2yrs away from being an expiring FA in his mid 30's.

This allow NO's to flip or use a young player in a connecting trade. Sign a veteran C they think best fits & or save cap get quality depth especially if they manage or want to trade for a future C like Sarr.

[Whole Truth]

I'm not sure Ivey will ever realize his potential but he's in a chaotic situation in Detroit where as a PG he's sharing his time there with Cade.

In doing this deal, NO's get the potential of Ivey, get younger, reduce the impact on the cap, open an avenue to sign a C of choice, clear PT for Daniels, Hawkins & add an additional asset for a potential connecting trade.

[Whole Truth]

I don't understand some peoples logic.

NO's poster says this - "If a team with the #1 pick moves down to #4 in a draft where the top pick is a 5, and they are moving down to take a different 5, that really further proves this is a really poor draft class".

There's a consensus in draft order, If more people believed Clingan to be better than Sarr, NO's would be trading in at 5 for preference not 1.

Hawks don't own their draft for the next 3 yrs. If they miss on a potential #1 pick they've lost it's value where as trading down maximizes it's value & lowers it's risk.

The draft, any draft, is educated guessing.

Here's my estimation of Sarr & his potential fit

Green want to switch defend. Sarr is an athletic 7 footer with good length & reach who's best skillset now is his ability to switch defend & protect the rim. He has the athleticism, length & foot speed both to close out & recover. If you watch his block's he's not just reacting on instincts but reading the play before it happens, the defensive IQ is there. He positions himself well but is lacking the necessary strength as a 19yo. As a young big he shot 30% on low volume from 3 where all indicators predict he will reach the ability to spce the floor where Zion needs his defensive C to take his man out the paint. He has the handles to push pace off a rebound, drive on a hard closeout & build a potential face up game where NO's & Zion don't want him operating in the post. His main weakness is his raw post moves that he's willing to attempt. That shows there's a willingness & drive to be better.

The risk/reward. No matter who you trade BI for, Zion is a risk to not play a full season. Things go south, would you not rather have the potential of a 2 way C at 20 than an expiring Allen that will require a pay raise starting at 20m even if he opts to stay ?.

Zion will be 24, Murphy 24, Hawkins 23, Daniels 21, Sarr 20 with 2 potential projected lotto picks in 25, where NO's can pivot to development & draft if Zion goes down.

Hire KG to mentor Sarr. If KG played in todays game he would be my starting C & I see his game in Sarr's potential.

[Whole Truth]

Consensus doesn't mean everyone or team, consensus is a majority opinion.

If Hawks trade down for Clingan, you think that makes them right about Sarr, lol. No game has been played to prove otherwise.

What is your take of Griff trading down from Garland for Hayes & NAW ?

The draft is about identifying what you like & being in position for it. Unfortunately Sarr is consensus #1 in this draft so that's where interest lies. If NO's could get Sarr at 5 they wouldn't need to trade for #1.

The fact that Hawks who don't own their draft for 3 seasons are trading down is to maximize value & reduce risk, has nothing to do with not liking Sarr. They're just acknowledging they can't afford to put all their eggs into one basket.

For NO's, if you read my estimation above about his potential & fit, Sarr is a specified target who won't fall past Washington at 2 as a majority opinion.

[Whole Truth]

Yes, Sarr is not a clear cut #1 & has more risk than a sure fire #1 in normal drafts. What's your point ? He's still consensus.

His skillset is what NO's want/need with Green, ZIon & being consensus to the position means NO's will have to trade in if they want a 7' switch defender for the way Green wants to defend, who's indicators say he will be a capable floor spacer in time to take his man out the paint to also fit next to Zion offensively. With the added benefit of having a 20yo 2 way C on rookie scale & control moving forward if Zion proves without BI he can't stay healthy.

To show every decision has it's risk, if Zion proves he can't stay healthy say you trade for someone like Allen. He will be an expiring 20m facing free agency or salary increase. Where he most likely opts for greener pastures if that happens.

What Hawks are probably thinking is that Clingan is more polished, especially in the post where they need to keep Young happy. Sarr's biggest holes are his post moves & strength as a 18yo, Unlike Atlanta, NO's don't need Sarr operating in the paint, with Zion occupying that space. Clingan would be Atlanta's post gravity to Okongwu's switch ability where Sarr is a bit redundant in skillset. This move is to maximize the value of the pick while trying to minimize the risk of potential. As this will be the last pick Hawks see for the next 3yrs outside a swap in 26 with a Spurs team ready to make a giant leap as early as this upcoming season.

[Whole Truth]

How is Clingan being a better fit for Atlanta a red flag for Sarr's fir for NO's, lol.

Hawks have a switch able C in Okongwu who's proven & ready to start to take the risk on Sarr's similar skillset, considering their position of not owning their draft for 3 seasons & having Young put pressure to contend. Clingan is more polished with post gravity that Hawks don't currently have. By trading down they can also draft Buzelis & get a cheap elite defender to pair with Young. Filling a couple holes with them near or in the luxury tax. That being another reason they'd trade off the 12m tag of the #1 pick..

How is that a knock on Sarr's potential & potential fit with Green & Zion?

I don't consider Sarr a franchise player. It's not out of the realm of possibility but I view him as an elite 3D C & there's a ton of value in a 2 way C, especially when you consider the fit with Zion. Add in Zion's ability to stay healthy, it's actually the safer course of action for cap health & to retain talent, value, control & to pivot directionally in a worse case scenario.

[Whole Truth]

lol I'm dying, Comparing Clingan at 5 to Kessler at 22. In a redraft Kessler doesn't go 22.

NO's fans we need to trade for Kessler. NO's fans over this draft, Why would we want to draft a Kessler. lol

Yes the #1 pick doesn't have the upside of a franchise talent but it has the best avenue to net that unicorn C that Zion needs on both ends. To trade for that type of proven C is non existent. Otherwise teams would have poached Bam. They can't & won't.

The underlying fact here is that ZIon is a difficult build with his defensive issues, rebounding & offensive predictability.

Taking risk on potential is the best way to get a 2 way C on a good contract & control to pair Zion with. The other option is wasting years plugging in & out one dimensional big men hoping you find one that fits.