Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

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Just watched a Pels insider call for CJ to start for his spacing. He states the reason the Herb/Dyson lineup is good is because BI & Zion are working off each other better, it's not THE reason.

Herb with one of CJ or Hawkins is sub par. Daniels with one of CJ or Hawkins is sub par.

Herb with Daniels is a difference because you have more than just a primary defender. As good as Herb is, Dyson is a better man defender at the point of attack. This allows Herb high defensive IQ to cleanup mistakes of slow defenders & ball watchers, whereas when he's playing without Dyson, he's required as the primary defender unable to cover mistakes. This improved chain of defense has seen the slow footed Jonas, with multiple blk games, ball watcher Zion, with multiple steal games & BI looking like a passable defender.

Cover defensively for those 3 Jonas is a career 60% efficiency player, Zion is high volume efficiency player & so can BI be, especially if he takes more efficient shots than just mid range with teams packing the paint.

The amazing part is all of Dyson, Herb, BI, Jonas & Zion though not volume shooters, can hit an open 3.

Pels insider, do you really think the 4 best teams in the West including the #1 defensive team didn't try to zone that lineup during those 4 games ?

Will Dyson & Herb have offensive 3pt droughts, sure but what they do defensively for the other 3 efficient scorers has so far out weighed the negative. I fully believe this is why BI is being encouraged to & taking more 3's... to allow for the defensive upgrade & if there is droughts, that's what the shooting options off the bench are for, answers to those droughts.

Jonas on open attempts is shooting 38% on 2 attempts per game, open he's a reliable threat.
Zion has taken 2 3's, he's made 1, It doesn't have to be volume but I wish he would take more
BI is hitting a career low 30% on 5 attempts per game. He can & has shot better than 30% from 3.
Herb on open attempts is shooting 35% on 3 attempts per game. He looks confident & decisive in taking them
Dyson on open attempts is shooting 33% on 3 attempts per game passable if there's no hesitation.

Defenses have to guard intent, they give you what they know you don't want to do.

CJ was hot shooting at 38% on 8 attempts per game. The overall defensive trade off is not worth it. They were still zoning Zion & that starting lineup with CJ having faced 2 bottom feeders & OKC as the best competition had a -16 net rating to the Dyson starting lineup vs the top 4 teams in the West with a +44 rating, Including facing the #1 defense In Minnesota.

Please NO's, lets not make decisions because of the name on the back of the Jersey. CJ was most effective early anyway playing with Jonas & floor spacers against the apposing bench, where NO's won most the games he played in as Zion was a negative player in 3 of them.

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It will be a mistake not to ride the hot hand & see where it takes you..

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A blind man can see that all defensive lineup 4th Q with Nance, Herb, Dyson & Kings zoning Zion was going to choke offensively... 14pt lead now 2.

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Revenge game,

Pels shot poorly yet took a 14pt lead into the 4th where they had to overcome a poor rotation decision & lopsided officiating. (Kings had an unjustified 15-4 FT advantage 4th Q).

The team overcame a lot & ultimately I'm satisfied they won but that 4th Q left a bitter taste.

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Offensive & defensive balance. Stop putting Zion on the court with one shooter & 3 non offensive options when teams are zoning him.

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Here's the game everyone was worried about. Kings were forcing Dyson & Herb to beat them from 3 & BI was also cold from range, The starters shot 1-13, from 3.. Can't really shoot worse than that, I mean you could go 0-13.

The team shot 7-30 on the whole. Jose & Hawkins off the bench were 4-12 which is not much better..

Pels shoot just 30% (BI makes a couple of his open looks) which more often than not they'd be capable of. They would have carried a 23pt lead into the 4th against a high scoring PO team looking to avenge a tough loss. In combination to a poor shooting night from 3, Pels left another 9pts on the FT line. So we have an example of what would happen if Herb, Dyson & BI are flat from 3.

If not for a miss step to start the 4th, this would have been a comfortable win apposed to a hard fought one regardless of the overall poor shooting.
 
Having CJ available off the bench instead of Jose or the rook, would have been nice. He would have also been a better option with Zion to start the 4th.

Since Herb joined Dyson as a starter. Pels are now 4-1 against Denver, Mavs, Kings 2x with a 1 pt loss to Wolves without having C or TreyJ available to bolster the weak bench minutes they've had over this stretch.

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Nance had some good moments in this game. Hard to fault him for the Nance, Herb & Dyson 4thQ defensive lineup with Kings zoning Zion. Clear as day not enough offensive balance in that lineup, where having CJ would have mafe a difference. Along with very suspect officiating (15-4 FT's) with ignored contact for the Kings,

Pels still pulled out the win with BI engaged, putting in work defensively.

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Not to knock CJ but from yr one I've been saying Murphy's defensive length, with one of Herb or Daniels as the spacing solution to the defensive upgrade.

NO's have been losing their bench minutes during this 4-1 stretch, where CJ was effective in the first 6 games. Even Denver's bench won their minutes zoning ZIon. Having CJ & Murphy back more than rectifies that.

As far as I'm concerned. You can't pull Daniels until you start losing.. These pressure situations where teams will force him to beat them from range, is growth & until they start losing, it's productive growth (4-1) against the best the West has to offer.. Still no CJ among some current weak bench production

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I tuned in again on the insider because I knew I was going to get a clap back on the lack of 3pt shooting after last night,

Here's the thing, 30% shooters on 3 attempts per game, are not going to shoot 1-13 on open looks every night. The fact that the starters shot 1-13 & carried a 14pt lead into the 4th should instead speak volumes to the other positives of that rotation. Realize while spacing is a need, moving CJ into the starting rotation for shooting doesn't come with all the positive effects of the current one.. I don't know about anyone else but I watched ZIon be a negative player in 3 of the 4 wins in the first 6 games CJ stated in, where that group was a -16 & CJ was most effective with Jonas & floor spacers off the bench during a stretch of games that featured Memphis, Detroit & a couple current 500 teams.

Hard fact, NO's just won a game their starters were 1-13 from 3, their team 7-30. Hard to shoot worse than that. Yet they won because of post efficiency, they won because of rebounding efficiency, they won because of (2nd chance points) they won because of the defense & points off TO's, all despite an abysmal night from 3 overall, not just the starters.

There will be no better learning curve for Daniels than these early pressure situations. There's no better development situation for NO's that them beating the cream of the crop while developing his game. People have it backwards, the teams ceiling is on the back of being able to play Dysons elite defense come PO's. The fact the team is not losing against top tier competition should be even more reason to ride this development wave. The rotation stumbles because of a lack of spacing, Green can analyze where to bring the shooting in from & from his defensive point of view. Having Murphy, Hawkins & CJ available for offensive adjustments off the bench. A bench that should light teams up from range, where this team is currently losing battles during the win streak, against appssing benches.

The next game the role players have a good night from 3, will the argument still be a need for shooting ?. Their are outliers but most successful teams build with defense because it's more consistent in effort than offense & what actually happened here was a win in an off shooting night. We all know the current short comings of the rotation, I question if some understand it's strengths.

Ever watch Memphis when Jonas & a rookie JA made the PO's without 3J ?. DO you know how Memphis managed that feat with Ja not being a good 3pt shooter in his rookie yr & their team on the whole having poor spacing ? Same as last night. Post efficiency, 2nd chance opportunity & defense. Reason they wanted Adams rebounding back in trade for Jonas in targeting their SF of the future, trading up for Zaire. (Post presence & rebounding).

Jonas was the offensive not defensive adjustment for Nance down the stretch. +40 in the paint, + in 2nd chance rebounding, + in TO's won out a 1-13 shooting night for the starters, which they will not do often.

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It's not as though Kings had an off night from 3 either. They shot a respectable 35% & were (+24 from 3).

NO's with Jonas post efficiency, Zion post efficiency & BI getting to the rim, were I think (+ 42 in the paint)

Defensively & in 2nd chance opportunity. NO's had 11 more possessions than the Kings.

In an off shooting night. As I mentioned in an earlier post. Dyson a 33% shooter hits 1-5 instead of 0-5, Herb a 35% shooter hits 1-4 instead of 0-4 & BI a more reliable threat hits 2-4 on his open looks. Pels carry a 23pt lead into the 4th in a revenge game for the Kings where they came out looking to punch NO's in the face.

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Like SI, the athletic mention the same possibility of Magic trading Issac to Bulls for Lavine. With his injury history & expiring contract. A rebuilding Bulls in trading Lavine could have their interest peaked by pick value over the injury risk, expiring Isaac.

The negative is obviously his health concern but it's also why a player like him would even be available to trade. No move is without it's risk. I missed badly on RW & it's entirely possible Issac may meet the same fate. His injury risk factor minimized by the fact he's expiring in 25.

However, at 6'11, Isaac can guard 1-5. He's only shooting 25% from three on the yr but is a career 30% 3 pt shooter on 2.5 attempts. Basically a longer, younger, better defensive rebounding version of Nance.

NO's trade (Nance, Kira, pick/s) to Bulls for (Isaac)

Jonas - Isaac - Zeller
Zion - Murphy - Isaac
BI - Naji - Ryan
Herb - Hawkins - Naji
Daniels - CJ - Jose

Reason Isaac is coming off the bench is purely to ensure he remains healthy for the PO's as Jonas eats regular season minutes. Come PO's, NO's can flirt with the idea of starting.

Isaac
Zion
BI
Herb
CJ

Isaac can replace Daniels defense 1-5 to get CJ's shooting into the rotation while not losing the effect of pairing Herb with another capable 1-5 elite defender. At 6'11, in replacing Nance, NO's get a better rebounding small ball option which has cost them with Nance in that role & with his 17m expiring in 25. NO's can focus on a cheap development replacement option in the 24 draft with Bi's extension looming. Extend Jonas, if possible, to ensure stability at the position with Issac health concerns & until the developing rookie shows a readiness to step in.

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Taking credit for saying Pels need spacing when it's an obvious issue to all. Ever heard the saying self praise, is no praise, it applies. It was a very poor shooting performance by all, starters & bench but they won, regardless. Starters were 1-13, bench 6-17. The shooters off the bench weren't much better in volume. It was an off night for the entire roster, how often will 30% shooters & BI shoot 1-13 ? it's well below their law of averages The pure shooter Hawkins was 2-6.

What if Green had started Hawkins in this one for "spacing", the pure shooter shot 2-6 but got mauled by fox as would have CJ. Would that have better impacted the game than the effect of Daniels defense ?.

While shooting is an obvious need, you cannot ignore the other positives of playing Daniels, which you seem to have done. Did you even listen to your own closing segment ?. Why has Jonas been playing better lately...

Where you state/acknowledge it's NO's being able to put Herb in the 1-5 pnr & help coverage. What allows that to happen ? not playing Daniels over CJ ?. Maybe there's reason you only reference Herb in the help coverage with no mention of Daniels at the point of attack, it safely ignores one of the benefits of starting him.

CJ starting shooting 38% on 8 APG for spacing - (4 - 2) wins over Memphis, Detroit, OKC, NY with ZIon a negative in 3 of the 4 wins.

Daniels starting for defense (with) Herb - (4-1) wins over Denver, Mavs, Kings 2x with the 2nd King win being a B2B adjustment/revenge game. Green doesn't pull Jonas who was 3/3 in the first 3mins of the 4thQ in the Wolves match for defense. NO's don't go on a following 3 minute drought making only 1 FG in a game they lost by 1 on a last possession missed shot. Over this 5 game span, Jonas has more blks, Zion more steals & BI is putting in work defensively because Herb & Daniels set a tone for the game.

Yes the rotation needs spacing but not in exchange for the rest of the positives being brought & as I said earlier in the post, it was an off night for everyone from 3 & the law of averages will come into play.

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Fact -

With CJ starting, shooting 38% from 3 on 8 APG & having Daniels available to come off the bench, NO's have a 4-2 record having faced, 2 bottom feeders, 3 average teams & OKC. In this stretch, the bench with CJ, Jonas & spacers, were the rotations winning these games, not the starting unit. Zion was a negative in 3 of the wins & was sitting the 4th vs Detroit. CJ was shooting effectively on volume, yet not once did Zion put up a positive rating in the 4 wins playing with CJ. It was the bench with CJ during this span that helped NO's win these matches.. NO's fans were erecting statues of Matt Ryan.

With Daniels starting & not having CJ's shooting to come off the bench. NO's were losing their bench minutes, including against Denver's supposed weak bench, in the Denver win. They have a 4-1 record against the top of the West having lost most of their bench minutes.

Not sure why the push to remove Daniels, this is a great opportunity to grow his game.. If his shooting is off & it's hampering the spacing, an adjustment can be made. However, these minutes are developing him in pressure situations & NO's are not losing the games against top competition so far, which makes it a viable option. All this without CJ even being available, more, less, as a good bench option.

Up to me, I only make the change when the team shows it can't overcome the progression of Daniels as a starter. The sample size is growing even in an off shooting night. The reps of Daniels having to hit open looks is invaluable, especially, if it's not costing wins.

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Tonight against Kawhi & Geroge. it's a luxury to have 2 elite defenders to put on them.

Here's to continued growth & success

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BI, Herb, Jonas & Daniels shot 8-13 from 3.

First Q, this team looked like a well oiled machine playing some of the best basketball I've seen from them. 2nd Q the all defensive rotation knocked the wind & offensive momentum out of them. They followed up their best basketball of the season with a 20pt Q blowing a 21pt lead.

Herb saves the game, hits 2 big late 4th Q 3's to take home the win..

Team is now 5-1 since starting Daniels with Herb & the sample size is growing.

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Herb +22
Daniels +18
Jonas +15
BI +13
Zion -1
Marshall -3
Nance -5
Jose -12

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People generally say who starts, doesn't matter, it's how you close. They're wrong. The start of the game sets the tone for the game. One of the issues I had when NO's traded for CJ was the obligation factor to a veteran max player. Here we are with a starting rotation problem, solution.

To start the year, it was the bench lineup of (Jonas, Ryan, Hawkins, Herb & CJ) that was winning early games, not the starting rotation. Zion was a negative player in 3 of the 4 wins & was sitting courtside for the Detroit win. Then CJ got injured during Atlanta's game. They went 4-2 in those games

NO's started Hawk for spacing with Herb vs Denver, a game they lost not just the game but Herb as well. So now without both CJ & Herb they had to turn to Hawkins & Daniels, where Hawkins is a rookie & Daniels is not a real PG yet. They went 0-3 in those 3 games

Then Herb returned for the rematch vs the then #1 seed & high powered Mavs offense. Borrego decided to put both Herb & Daniels on their 2 very good scoring guards & as they say. The rest is history. If not for the misstep in the Wolves match 4th Q. NO's would be 6-0 in their last 6 since going to a Herb, Daniels starting rotation, not just 5-1, which they are, which is good non the less. Without CJ you're seeing the effects of both the starting unit & bench. Which subsequently, considering the early season successes, it's the bench has struggled during this 5-1 stretch. Where getting back CJ & Trey could be an easy & effective fix to Green running Zion against bench units since starting Daniels.

Early season successful bench production = Jonas, Ryan, Herb, Hawkins, CJ
Bench with Dyson starting could be = Zion, Murphy, Naji, Hawkins, CJ

You get Zion on the court with 4 very good shooters where Hawkins & CJ coming off the bench the guard defense is minimized by the level of apposing competition. Teams will have to decide to ride their stars to compete with it.

Last 6 games of succession starting = Jonas, Zion, BI, Herb, Daniels
Starters, with CJ/Trey off the bench = Don't fix what's not broken

Jonas - Nance/Zion
Zion - Murphy
BI - Naji
Herb - Hawkins
Daniels - CJ

A mix of early season success & recent success. With CJ & Trey back, NO's might start winning their bench minutes to an already successful stretch of games.

Oh & for the spacing issue, Jonas, BI, Herb & Daniels shot 8-13 vs the Clippers. Law of averages. They probably won't shoot as well next game but watching Herb take & make 2 late crucial 3's & seeing the confidence & decisiveness, if Daniels follows suit, NO's has stumbled onto something.

No, No No, start CJ because he's CJ & the need for spacing, lol. The team is literally on what should be a 6 game win streak without getting solid bench minutes, not even having CJ available, more less an effective option off the bench, if NO's want to start to consider Jose & tax obligations.

 

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Summarization of my post above, in simple math

Herb with CJ starting - (4-2) Memphis, NY, Detroit, OKC
Herb with Hawkins starting - (0-1)
Daniels with Hawkins starting - (0-3)
Herb with Daniels starting - (5-1) Denver, Mavs, Kings 2x, Clippers

Herb starting with a floor spacer CJ - (4-2)
Herb starting with a floor spacer Hawkins - (0-1)
Daniels starting with a floor spacer Hawkins - (0-3)
Herb starting with added defender Daniels - (5-1)

Defender with floor spacer (4-6) against the weaker part of the schedule
Defender with defender (5-1) against the stronger part of the schedule

in this span

Mavs were the #1 seed 10-2 & top 2 offense, when met
Denver was the #1 seed 10-2 & top 5 offense when met
Wolves still are & were the #1 seed 9-2 & #1 defense, when met
Kings were on a 6 game win streak, with Fox putting up +20 a game
Clippers played Kawhi & PG

It's not just a 6 game streak of success with varying competition. Without the miss step vs wolves. NO's would've beaten 6 top end PO teams, contenders with (Denver, Wolves, Mavs) holding the 1 seed in the West when they met. Without CJ, Trey & the bench losing significant minutes during this stretch.

The solution should be a simple one .. operative word, should

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Basketball reference -

CJ - Herb - BI - Zion - Jonas = 6 games, 42 mins (-14.9)
vs
Memphis (3-12), Detroit (2-14), NY (9-6), Atlanta (7-7), OKC (11-4), (GS 8-9)

Combined record (40-52) with 4 losses coming against the Pels = potential for (44 - 48)



Daniels - Herb - BI - Zion - Jonas = 6 games, 60 mins (+31.6)
vs
Denver (10-6), Mavs (10-5), Wolves (11-4), Kings (9-6) 2x, Clippers (6-8)

Combined record (55 - 35) with 5 of the losses coming against the Pels = potential for (60-30)

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I see CJ fans hating on Dyson after the last match because he was rough offensively, as was everyone else on the back end of a B2B in mile high Utah, 3 games in 4 nights. How quick people forget the Kings 30pt beat down without the late arrival & altitude under similar circumstances.

None the less, Pels forced 20 TO's, had 16 steals & were +13 in possession, in large part due to Dysons defense. They literally lost because Jazz shot 2% better from the field as the only other positive for Utah was +4 in offensive boards. Take away Dyson's 5 missed 3's, explain away the other 8 empty offensive possessions. I know Jonas & Hawkins had several weak TO's just trying to throw entry passes & post up against a lengthy shot blocker. To blame Dyson's offense for the outcome is well, to put it nicely, stupid. His defense was a large reason why Pels only lost by 5 & not double digits.