2009 MLB Dynasty League (bigboy shocks the world!)

Post #581 » by **CFan21** » Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:07 pm

I've gotta cite poor form on your part though Safan, publicizing and bashing the noob's opening offer. Kinsler is ranked 11th in Yahoo! and 12th on the big board so it's not like it was an outrageous offer. I also think you guys underrate Adrian Beltre a little bit because of his contract. I remember reading this in a Matthew Berry article a couple weeks ago:

Over the past two years, Aramis Ramirez has only two more home runs and eight more runs scored than Adrian Beltre. Ramirez has 36 more RBIs over that time, Beltre has 20 more steals. Ramirez has batted .299 during the span, Beltre has hit .271. Ramirez is going 61 picks ahead of Beltre.

As long as we are talking third basemen, here are the home run totals for Adrian Beltre over the past three years: 25, 26, 25.

Post #582 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:23 pm

Unless defense counts in this league, Beltre is nowhere near as valuable as Ramirez. Whoever thinks so is a buffoon. Matthew Berry is a buffoon.

The only reason their counting totals are so close over the past two seasons is that Ramirez missed a good chunk of 2007 due to injury. Ramirez provides a higher average, more power, more RBI/R opportunities, as well as higher OBP and slugging. The only thing fantasy-wise that Beltre is better than Ramirez at is stealing bases.

Post #583 » by **CFan21** » Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:45 pm

Well I could argue that there are significant flaws in your thought as well. Does it matter that he would have put up better numbers if he had played a full season? He didn't, that's the point. He missed 30 games in 2007 and 40 in 2005, which says to me that there's a decent chance he gets injured every couple years and misses a chunk of the season, hurting his overall numbers. Beltre has been so consistent he's almost a virtual lock for 600 ABs. Probability of injury has to go into account when you consider a player's value. Not that I'm comparing Ramirez to them but that's why J.D. Drew, with sweet stroke and decent speed and Milton Bradley with that fantastic bat aren't really very hot fantasy commodities.

Your argument about Ramirez having a higher OBP and slugging is just as irrelevant as the thing about the defense. Beltre gets on base less but his superior speed and base-running skills mean that he still ends up with similar run totals.

I'm not arguing that Beltre is Ramirez's equal and neither was Berry. We're just saying that there's not as significant a different between them as people think, where everybody has Ramirez as an elite 3B and Beltre as some scrub. If I had to make a safe projection of their totals for this season it would be:

Ramirez: 90 R/30 HR/100 RBI/.290/1 SB
Beltre: 85 R/25 HR/85 RBI/.270/10 SB

Is Ramirez better? Yeah, of course. But is he significantly better? Ehhh.

Post #584 » by **CFan21** » Mon Apr 13, 2009 5:49 pm

BTW, my apologies for picking on your guys Beebjay. Didn't even know they were all on your roster until I just looked. I've got plenty of guys myself who can screw with a fantasy owner.

Post #585 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Mon Apr 13, 2009 6:21 pm

Setterlund wrote:Well I could argue that there are significant flaws in your thought as well. Does it matter that he would have put up better numbers if he had played a full season? He didn't, that's the point. He missed 30 games in 2007 and 40 in 2005, which says to me that there's a decent chance he gets injured every couple years and misses a chunk of the season, hurting his overall numbers. Beltre has been so consistent he's almost a virtual lock for 600 ABs. Probability of injury has to go into account when you consider a player's value. Not that I'm comparing Ramirez to them but that's why J.D. Drew, with sweet stroke and decent speed and Milton Bradley with that fantastic bat aren't really very hot fantasy commodities.

This comment is absurd for quite a few reasons. One, aside from those two seasons (one which happened four years ago from a quad strain, mind you) Ramirez has played in 140+ games in every single season of his career. For the most part he’s been a rather healthy and consistent producer; since coming to the Cubs, his wOBA has ranged from .381 to .396, making him a very good offensive player in that span. Beltre, in a similar time frame, has ranged from .308-.346 since joining the M’s, making him slightly below average with the bat. Second, all Berry is proving is that, even when considering the amount of time missed by Ramirez in 2007, Adrian Beltre’s fully-healthy seasons are close is a few cherry-picked counting stats to one-and-two-thirds of Ramirez’s season in the same time frame. Since that one-third of a season would most likely be covered by a fantasy team’s back-up third baseman (a waiver-wire pick-up – a Casey Blake type), one would inevitably need to count his numbers into the mix, making the values that much more in favor of Ramirez. Simply put Ramirez + replacement > Beltre. Third, whatever value Beltre may give you in SB and comparable value in HR/R/RBI, he more than gives up in batting average, OBP and SLG, three categories Berry doesn’t even bother mentioning. Beltre is far inferior in rate statistics.

Your argument about Ramirez having a higher OBP and slugging is just as irrelevant as the thing about the defense. Beltre gets on base less but his superior speed and base-running skills mean that he still ends up with similar run totals.

What…the hell? First of all Beltre scores far fewer runs than Aramis. Seriously…look it up. Here, I’ll provide the links for you:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ad01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ar01.shtml

Run totals over the past four seasons:

Aramis Ramirez: 334
Adrian Beltre: 318

In four fully-healthy seasons Beltre has scored fewer runs than Ramirez has in two healthy and two injury-shortened seasons.

I'm not arguing that Beltre is Ramirez's equal and neither was Berry. We're just saying that there's not as significant a different between them as people think, where everybody has Ramirez as an elite 3B and Beltre as some scrub. If I had to make a safe projection of their totals for this season it would be:

Ramirez: 90 R/30 HR/100 RBI/.290/1 SB
Beltre: 85 R/25 HR/85 RBI/.270/10 SB

Is Ramirez better? Yeah, of course. But is he significantly better? Ehhh.

I agree that there isn’t much of a difference in certain aspects of their game: both hit similar amounts of HR (though Ramirez creams Beltre in XBH), and score similar amount of runs without taking into consideration Ramirez’s truncated 2007 season. Other than that, they’re completely different. More RBI opportunities for Ramirez, much higher OBP, higher slugging, better batting average…

Post #586 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Mon Apr 13, 2009 6:22 pm

Setterlund wrote:BTW, my apologies for picking on your guys Beebjay. Didn't even know they were all on your roster until I just looked. I've got plenty of guys myself who can screw with a fantasy owner.

Hunh?

kazanovicz · Post #587 » by **kazanovicz** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 12:43 am

Sosafan and I agree on this trade:

Ian Kinsler
Adrian Beltre
Brad Ziegler

for

Adrian Gonzalez
Kevin Youkilis
2010 2nd Round Prospect Pick

sosafan70 · Post #588 » by **sosafan70** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 1:00 am

Confoirmed

Post #589 » by **sunshinekids99** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 1:38 am

Jeez Sosa's trades suck.

Post #590 » by **CFan21** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 1:47 am

Does the noob get a little respect now?

sosafan70 · Post #591 » by **sosafan70** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 5:08 am

Setterlund wrote:Does the noob get a little respect now?

Of course not. I'll be the first to admit that making a trade with me is like shooting a fish in the barrel

And I'll STILL win this year

Post #592 » by **sunshinekids99** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 10:12 am

Setterlund wrote:Does the noob get a little respect now?

I'd prefer not to even screw somebody over like that. But hey he sure got a hell of a deal so sure why not.

Post #593 » by **Basketball Jesus** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 1:34 pm

Hell, if that’s all it would take to land Gonzalez and Youk, I would have gladly given up Carlos Guillen and a package of ramen noodles for them.

Does the noob get a little respect now?

Does the fat kid get respect for beating the down syndrome kid in a 100-yard dash?

Post #594 » by **CFan21** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 5:12 pm

For the record I still think Kinsler is going to have a monster season even though I do give props to my buddy for his first blockbuster. I think Kinsler is going to replicate Pedroia's 2008 except with 5 more HR and 10 more SB.

sosafan70 · Post #595 » by **sosafan70** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 5:36 pm

When you guys have a .850 winning percentage then you can **** on me.

sosafan70 · Post #596 » by **sosafan70** » Tue Apr 14, 2009 5:37 pm

In other words, next week

sosafan70 · Post #597 » by **sosafan70** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:38 am

God trading for Kinsler was such a stupid idea. 5-5 and it's only the 6th inning? What a fool I was

Post #598 » by **CFan21** » Thu Apr 16, 2009 5:31 pm

I don't think there was ever a question of whether or not Kinsler would put up the stats (although Texas' offense has to calm down a little bit at some point) but you traded two guys who will have a monster year for one guy (albeit at a more premium position) who will put up monster stats. I think it was a trade that actually helped both sides, although I like Kaz's take better. That offense is pretty legit/balanced for a first-year team.

sosafan70 · Post #599 » by **sosafan70** » Mon Apr 20, 2009 10:07 pm

Oh god my team sucks. OH WAIT THEYRE IN FIRST

Post #600 » by **Chach** » Wed Apr 22, 2009 10:07 pm

God I hate my life. Who drops Max Ramirez for Kurt frickin Suzuki? This guy. Because Baltimore has to start Jesus Wieters at AAA and Doumit has to break a bone in his wrist, leaving me with no catchers. Whoever ends up with Max on waivers, you're **** welcome assgoblin.

Also, I'm looking to upgrade third base and I'm willing to use my young starting pitching. Or consolidate pitching with a 2 for 1. mahalo
~Chach~