Cubs 2009 statistical predictions

SpinninHouse · Post #1 » by **SpinninHouse** » Wed Feb 4, 2009 4:01 am

Starters:
OF Soriano .278 BA, .348 OBP, 26 HR's, 86 RBI's, 16 SB
SS Theriot .281 BA, .355 OBP, 3 HR's, 41 RBI's, 36 SB
OF Bradley .317 BA, .391 OBP, 17 HR's, 79 RBI's, 2 SB
3B Ramirez .270 BA, .382 OBP, 29 HR's, 130 RBI's, 0 SB
C Sota .321 BA, .376 OBP, 24 HR's, 88 RBI's, 1 SB
1B Lee .266 BA, .341 OBP, 14 HR's, 62 RBI's, 10 SB
2B Fontenot .277 BA, .360 OBP, 7 HR's, 39 RBI's, 14 SB
OF Fukudome .239 BA, .277 OBP, 6 HR's, 29 RBI's, 8 SB

Bench:
IF Miles .302 BA, .369 OBP, 5 HR's, 22 RBI's, 5 SB
OF Johnson .266 BA., .339 OBP, 3 HR's, 26 RBI's, 4 SB
IF Hoffpauer .288 BA. .350 OBP, 9 HR's, 37 RBI's, 0 SB
OF Gathwright .244 BA., .301 OBP, 2 HR's, 18 RBI's, 7 SB

Rotation:
Zambrano 229 IP, 20-8, 3.77 ERA
Dempster 219 IP, 15-14, 4.22 ERA
Lilly 210 IP, 16-8, 4.01 ERA
Harden 130 IP, 9-0, 1.99 ERA
Marshall 199 IP, 8-16, 5.33 ERA

Greg 77 IP, 4-3, 11 Saves, 3.33 ERA
Marmol 97 IP, 3-2, 35 Saves, 2.99 ERA

I see the biggest decline from any of our big money guys being Derrek Lee. From what I saw from him the second half of the year, his best days are WAY behind him. Furthermore, that year he hit 46 HR's was an aberation -a once in a career year. However, I have great hope for Aramis especially if Bradley and Theriot are in front of him. Hopefully this is year his RBI count rockets deep into the elite stratosphere. And finally I'm cautiously optimistic that Zambrano will finally notch 20 wins.

Go Cubs Go!!!

Post #2 » by **GYBE** » Wed Feb 4, 2009 1:27 pm

You have Theriot and Fontenot stealing way too many bases.

I'd say the chances of Marshall putting up that line are extremely slim. He's much better than that, but even if you're right he'd be taken out of the rotation way before 200 IP.

SpinninHouse · Post #3 » by **SpinninHouse** » Wed Feb 4, 2009 5:21 pm

Fontenot stealing 14 bases is too many? You've got to be kidding me. And Theriot stealing 36? He had mid 20's last year. It's not like we're talking Vince Coleman numbers here. It's absolutely realistic. And a 5th starter having an ERA in the 5.00's is par for the course. I completely disagree.

Posey H8er · Post #4 » by **Posey H8er** » Wed Feb 4, 2009 6:36 pm

Theriot had a SB% of a little over 60%. Even though I would expect to see a slight increase in that number it is still terrible. I don't see how he could increase his production that that significantly.

Sean Marshall will not have an ERA above 5. The guy locates his pitches very well and in my opinion was the most underrated Cub in 2007.

I also think Mike Fontenot will hit more than 7 home runs. He had 9 last year in limited playing time.

Other than that I like many of your predictions.

Post #5 » by **GYBE** » Wed Feb 4, 2009 7:11 pm

SpinninHouse wrote:Fontenot stealing 14 bases is too many? You've got to be kidding me. And Theriot stealing 36? He had mid 20's last year. It's not like we're talking Vince Coleman numbers here. It's absolutely realistic. And a 5th starter having an ERA in the 5.00's is par for the course. I completely disagree.

Fontenot has 7 career steals. He's also been caught 4 times. Why would you think he'd suddenly start running more? He's not fast and he's not good at it.

Everyone wants Theriot to steal less bases, not more. He sucks at it. You're expecting him to almost double his stolen bases from last year. I'm not saying it's impossible, just unlikely and without any evidence to back it up.

Sean Marshall's ERA has been 3.92 and 3.86 the last two seasons. He's a young player who hasn't hit his prime yet. A 5th starter with an ERA above 5 isn't par for the course when you're a championship contender. The Cubs have tons of options for the 5th starter position, there's no way they'd let someone pitch 200 innings with a 5.33 ERA production. I mean, Jason Marquis had a 4.53 ERA and he was run out of town.

mattbulls · Post #6 » by **mattbulls** » Wed Feb 4, 2009 9:41 pm

-Harden 9-0??
-Fontenot had 9 homers last year. He's expected to pick up way more time.
-Fukudome won't drop that low in batting average and he walks way to much for that low of an OBP.
-Who's Sota?

SportsWorld · Post #7 » by **SportsWorld** » Wed Feb 4, 2009 11:09 pm

mattbulls wrote:-Who's Sota?

The female version of Geovany Soto. If she is putting up those numbers I can't wait to see what he predicts Soto will do.

The Sheik · Post #8 » by **The Sheik** » Thu Feb 5, 2009 12:12 am

SportsWorld wrote:
mattbulls wrote:-Who's Sota?

The female version of Geovany Soto. If she is putting up those numbers I can't wait to see what he predicts Soto will do.

Their baby will be a 5-tool wonder.

SpinninHouse · Post #9 » by **SpinninHouse** » Thu Feb 5, 2009 2:25 am

lol sota......ooops! above points taken. hopefully lee and fukudome put up better stats than i have listed...id be happy if im wrong.

Howling Mad · Post #10 » by **Howling Mad** » Thu Feb 5, 2009 7:46 pm

30+ for Theriot is too much. Fontenot's a little high, but I could see 10+, especially if he's in the normal rotation.

If Marshall is around 5 era, he's going to be a .500+ pitcher. This team has too much fire power for him to lose that much. That many losses would be just freakin' unlucky.

Fukudome would be long gone if he batted below .250, I think he bounces back with some consistency, but nothing more than .270. :pray:

and woah! you have him at a .277 OBP, thats just wrong. No way he's below a .300 let alone a .277 I'd say he's around .375 this year for obp

Lee is way too low on BA. he might not have power anymore, but one thing he can do is drive it to the gap and thats enough to keep him above .280 with the DP, of course. :roll:

Ramirez is way too low. You have a patient guy like Bradley batting behind or in front of him, that will only boost his numbers. Ramirez did best when guys like DeRo, Lee, Todd Walker, and Alou were patient batting in front/behind him.

Soto is going to hit more than 24 HRs. Period.

Harden's stats are a little funky, someone commented ont he 9-0?!?!?

No way LIlly is that good.