GYBE's 2008 Offseason Plan: Breaking the Curse

[GYBE]

Welcome friends.

After such an up-and-down season, the big challenge in assessing the roster is figuring out how much should be changed. There's certainly an argument to be made for keeping it virtually identical. The team DID win 97 games. However this kind of complacency will not be tolerated after the deplorable playoff showing, nor should it be. The Cubs are blessed with a ton of resources other franchises aren't privy to. We've always been able to retain our free agents, as I expect we will again this year. We've had the freedom to add payroll if a specific FA fits in well with the team. And we have a winning club in a great city that other players want to play for (hello Jake Peavy).

Because of these factors, we have the ability to significantly improve an already good club. If we handle this offseason well, no team in the division should pose a challenge next season.

For the purposes of this exercise, I'm assuming the Cubs have the go-ahead from management to add payroll. This hasn't been confirmed, but last year we were in the same ownership situation and we were allowed to sign Fukudome. However it is possible that Hendry has no freedom to dip into the FA market, which obviously would change my plan.

1. Re-sign old friends

Kerry Wood (3 years/30 million)
Ryan Dempster (4 years/50 million)

Both pitchers are likely to return and love being Cubs. To be honest, I'm not real confident in my guesses for salaries. I think it's likely the Cubs will just look at whatever others offer these two and match it to keep them here.

Henry Blanco (2 years/8 million)
Good mentor for Soto, steady when called upon. Gotta love Hank.

2. Welcome to Chicago, Mr. Peavy

From most reports, we're now the favourites to land Jake. Unlike most recently traded aces (CC, Johan), Peavy will be under our control until 2013. Peavy wants to come here and unfortunately for the Padres, they really don't have much of a choice but to take our offer at this point.

Here's what we give San Diego:

3 major league ready players (Sean Marshall, Ronny Cedeno and Felix Pie)
2 additional prospects* (Padres likely interested in Tyler Colvin and Donald Veal, possibly Welington Castillo)

*This prospect CANNOT be Josh Vitters. Hendry must protect our only possible superstar in the system and the Padres simply don't have the leverage to get him at this point.

San Diego has a hole in CF and SS if they deal Greene (likely). They could use both Cedeno and Pie. Marshall is a solid back-end starter that's getting no starts here. IF Jeff Samardzjia waives his no-trade clause, I would throw him in and take out either Cedeno, Pie or Marshall.

3. Dealing DeRosa

This is the point that I expect disagreement on. Here are the facts; DeRosa is in the last year of his deal, is coming off a career year and will be 33 years old. Mike Fontenot outperformed him last year and will be cheap for the next several seasons. It makes no sense to sign DeRosa, so we might as well move him now. His multi-position flexibility will be intriguing to GM's and everyone always values good hitting from the middle infield. Look at what Atlanta got for a worse player in Edgar Renteria; Gorkys Hernandez (better than any prospect we have outside of Vitters) and Jair Jurrjens (3.81 ERA in a full season of starting last year).

That's why I want to deal DeRosa for the best prospects available. With the Harden and possible Peavy deals, a barren farm system has gotten worse. We need to inject some new life into the system.

4. He KILLS Wrigley

Adam Dunn (4 years/48 million)

Smacked righties last year to the tune of a .951 OPS. He can struggle against lefties, but the rest of the lineup handles them. He'll be an adventure in RF, no doubt. But the offensive gains from his bat will outweigh the defensive deficiencies (say that 5 times fast).

5. Say Goodbye

To Bob Howry. As if there was any doubt.

25 Man Roster

LF Alfonso Soriano
SS Ryan Theriot
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Adam Dunn
2B Mike Fontenot
C Geovany Soto
CF Kosuke Fukudome

C Henry Blanco
1B Daryl Ward
CF Reed Johnson
1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir
SS Adam Everett (2 year/6 million)

SP Rich Harden
SP Jake Peavy
SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Ted Lilly

CP Kerry Wood
SU Carlos Marmol
RP Jeff Samardzjia
RP Chad Gaudin
RP Arthur Rhodes (2 year/12 million)
RP Angel Guzman
RP Kevin Hart

Obviously things can change quickly depending on the Peavy situation. But if we come anywhere close to this model, we should dominate the Central next year.

[The Sheik]

I love Mark Derosa, my favorite cub, but I agree with what your saying GYBE. You gotta take the fan glasses off and put on the fake gm ones when you see that our most valuable trade piece in terms of value is DeRo. The double edged sword is whether we can get by without his flexibility. I think we all know that Dero probably had his contract yr a yr too soon and he isnt likely to duplicate 2008 again.

I like your trade for peavy I would throw in Ceda, but not shark. I also think Hendry and co. need to quit thinking he will be a starter. He is top prospect as a reliever.

I also hope we give up more of the pitching prospects then position in the peavy deal. I think the Veals of the world arent going to pan out.

Would Love to have Adam Dunn and Dump back, but Im not sure if we can afford either after a Peavy deal/fukudome signing. Im also not sure if Dump is Glavine-esque in his bullpen conversion or another flash in the pan Carl Pavano type.

Another move fans might not like is re-signing dump and trading Z. Sure he is like the 3rd best bat on the team, but I dont think the guy has the makeup to ever be an ace.

Trade Kevin Hart to the padres please.

[GYBE]

Trading Z in principle is something I love. I really, really fear that he's due for a major arm/shoulder surgery within the next two seasons and we've committed a huge amount of dollars to him.

Especially if we get Peavy...I really like the idea of exploring a Zambrano trade. Of course Hendry never would because Z's been the face of the franchise. But like moving DeRosa, it would be a case of cashing in on an asset while his value is still high. Wouldn't it be savvy if Hendry put Z on the trade block quietly after the FA period? Whoever loses their starting pitching targets to other teams, we could pop in and offer an ace under contract at market rates for the next 4 years.

If we were able to deal DeRosa and Z, we could make serious headway into rebuilding a bad farm system. And honestly, the team wouldn't really be hurt that much.

[hermes]

i like it

i feel i need more Fontenot in my life, will be tough to see DeRosa go but what are you going to do

man getting Dunn and Peavy would be amazing

and Howry, i'd say i'm going to miss you

but i'm not

[Howling Mad]

Like your ideas. Agree with everything except the price of Peavey. I think its going to take a lot more than that.

Z is the new "Wood", as far as Hendry favorites go. I think Wood has worn out his welcome, especially if he leaves for the money.

Deff agree with Dunn killing Wrigley.

[karch34]

A very well thought out plan. I'm a little hesitant on giving Dempster a 4 year deal as he's not young. That said the contract you listed isn't outrageous.

I couldn't fall asleep last night and was thinking about how to re-tool. Some ideas are similar:

Re-sign Wood and Dempster.
Trade for Peavey (your trade offer looks good)
Trade Marquis for CoCo Crisp. Boston is shopping him and could be interested in Marquis (maybe). Lateral salary move that gets us a leadoff hitter.
Trade Lee (not sure to where, but maybe get some additional bullpen help)
Sign Texiera with the salary freed up from moving Lee.
Look at DeRosa playing more in RF, Fontenot at 2nd, Fukudome becomes 4th OF until he gets it together than maybe move DeRo.

These are tough because I like DeRo and Lee a lot and would hate to see them go. Thought about signing Furcal for leadoff, but don't know if he's going to be too costly for his health concerns.

CF-Crisp-L
SS-Theriot-R
1B-Texiera-L
3B-Ramierez-R
LF-Soriano-R
C-Soto-R
RF-DeRo/Fuku R/L
2B-Fontentot-L

A little more balance in lefty/righty.

Rotation: Z, Peavey, Lilly, Dempster, Harden

[DanTown8587]

Sad that a team that makes MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of dollars is going Wal-Mart this off-season. First we replace Wood with Gregg (Can he just change his name to Howry as to not confuse the fans) and now they are stalling with Dempster. I don't want Dempster back (huge risk and I doubt he comes close to that year like he had in 2008 again), but if you lose Dempster and Wood, I am afraid of the chemistry of the team.

[GYBE]

November 15th Update

Obviously some things have changed. Some quick bullet points on the moves that need to be made:

1. Hendry needs to sign one of the following hitters:
- Adam Dunn
- Milton Bradley
- Bobby Abreu
- Raul Ibanez

Ranked in order of preference.

2. Hendry needs to complete the Peavy trade
The longer Dempster sits on the open market, the more critical this becomes. It seems like a foregone conclusion at this point, get it done so we can move on to other tasks.

3. Hendry needs to avoid getting into a bidding way with Ryan Dempster
The contract I suggested above turned out to the be the actual offer the Cubs made. And it was rejected. Other teams are in on Dempster. I really think the Blue Jays will overpay him. They're losing Burnett and have two starters out for the year with surgery. They need to be competitive to keep interest up, and Dempster is a Canadian who would be a big fan favourite.

4/50 is almost the maximum I would pay. If Toronto, the Mets or other teams have bigger offers, I don't want to match them. Dempster is a huge injury risk coming off a ridiculous career season. It's almost assured he'll underperform his contract. I'd gladly keep him for a reasonable deal, but I don't want to break the bank for this guy. We should take the draft picks and use the money for one of the above hitters.

4. The race to 300
Sign Randy Johnson. Money is not important to him and he wants to come here, it wouldn't cost much. When healthy, Johnson is still nasty. 173 K's to 44 BB's last year, great numbers. Obviously he won't make 32 starts, but that's why we have Marquis. Jason wasn't horrible last year and he's fine as a spot starter. When healthy, Johnson starts. When he's not, Marquis goes in. It would be a cheap way to get average performance from the 5th rotation spot. And we're not locked into any new long-term contracts for pitchers.

Those are the main points. A situational lefty (Arthur Rhodes?) is needed too, but that's a minor thing. By the way, between Wood and Dempster, we could have a bunch of draft picks next year. If we use those well (i.e. paying for the best talent), we could really start rebuilding the farm.

[Posey H8er]

1. Jake Peavy- RHP
2. Carlos Zambrano- RHP
3. Ted Lilly- LHP
4. Rich Harden- RHP
5. Randy Johnson- LHP

I would love to see the Cubs dump Marquis if possible. If not, Peavy takes Dempster's spot and Johnson takes Marquis' and Marquis heads to the bullpen.

[Baller 24]

I agree with posey

[hermes]

i wonder if Randy has ever been the 5th starter on a team before

[ChronicKerr]

[quote="GYBE"]
It seems like a foregone conclusion at this point, get it done so we can move on to other tasks.
[/quote]

Are you THAT sure that something is going to get done for Peavy??? I hope you're right.

[hermes]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/b ... ing-o.html

looks like Braves are focusing else where for the time being, lets just get Peavy soon so we can be done with it

btw the Braves are interested in Dempster