What does an RJ extension look like?

[NoDopeOnSundays]

How is RJ a better player than PJ Tucker when Tucker is:

- A much better defender
- A better 3-point shooter, including C&S
- Does not waste other possessions scoring at bottom-of-the-league efficiency?

After game 4, PJ Tucker averaged 4.5ppg for the remaining games vs Boston, before he got hurt in game 7 he was -16 and had had 0pts in 17 minutes of play. Yes or no, do you think RJ would put up more than that? Do you think RJ would contribute more to the team in a playoff series than 7.9ppg. You're vastly overrating catch and shoot 3s too, in the playoffs someone who can put their head down and barrel their way to the basket is more valuable & better than someone who just stands in the corner all game long, because those C & S opportunities dry up.

RJ is not a better defender than Huerter. You're overestimating the impact of his defense in isolation situations and extrapolating those numbers (based on a grand total of 59 tracked possessions) to overall defense - but the best advanced impact metrics paint RJ as a negative defender. He's not a good team defender. He often gets caught on cuts, he's often late recovering to shooters, and he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of steals and blocks.

I didn't even look at isolation stats for Huerter, I just know they're bad Your beloved RAPTOR says they're equal as team defenders, RJ has a lower DRTG, a better DWS, only thing Huerter has better is DPBM, so that's push, 3 for RJ, 1 for Huerter, so you're wrong if we use the stats you so often use. So, please, argue with all the positions you've made over the years using them, because if you say Huerter is a better defender, you're being a hypocrite and arguing against all the previous debates you've used them in. How can he be a better defender when RAPTOR says they're equal, and 3 other defensive stats have RJ as better?

The difference between me and you is that I think RJ would be best used as a 3&D player, or as a bench player, and not in a featured role. I think his boxscore stats are vastly misleading, because they are the byproduct of a high-usage that cannot be reconciled with winning at this level of inefficiency. His production in not scalable to a winning situation. It's smoke and mirrors.

I don't value anything that he brings outside of rebounding, C&S 3s and isolation defense. That is a role player in a winning situation, with a bit of extra shot creation as a bench piece, if he commits to defense.

Nah, the difference is I can see what RJ could be if he cleans up some of his efficiency stats, you are just married to the idea that he's not going to get much better. That is really the difference, between us if we were Celtics fans in the summer of 2017, I would have been the guy saying we shouldn't trade Jaylen Brown for PG13, you would have been pointing at his freethrow percentage, RAPTOR, FICO score, FIBA, IRS and TBD stats saying we should absolutely do it because he's never going to be worth more than Andre Iguodala, a proven champion role player.

[Chanel Bomber]

How is RJ a better player than PJ Tucker when Tucker is:

- A much better defender
- A better 3-point shooter, including C&S
- Does not waste other possessions scoring at bottom-of-the-league efficiency?

After game 4, PJ Tucker averaged 4.5ppg for the remaining games vs Boston, before he got hurt in game 7 he was -16 and had had 0pts in 17 minutes of play. Yes or no, do you think RJ would put up more than that? Do you think RJ would contribute more to the team in a playoff series than 7.9ppg. You're vastly overrating catch and shoot 3s too, in the playoffs someone who can put their head down and barrel their way to the basket is more valuable & better than someone who just stands in the corner all game long, because those C & S opportunities dry up.

RJ is not a better defender than Huerter. You're overestimating the impact of his defense in isolation situations and extrapolating those numbers (based on a grand total of 59 tracked possessions) to overall defense - but the best advanced impact metrics paint RJ as a negative defender. He's not a good team defender. He often gets caught on cuts, he's often late recovering to shooters, and he doesn't bring much to the table in terms of steals and blocks.

I didn't even look at isolation stats for Huerter, I just know they're bad Your beloved RAPTOR says they're equal as team defenders, RJ has a lower DRTG, a better DWS, only thing Huerter has better is DPBM, so that's push, 3 for RJ, 1 for Huerter, so you're wrong if we use the stats you so often use. So, please, argue with all the positions you've made over the years using them, because if you say Huerter is a better defender, you're being a hypocrite and arguing against all the previous debates you've used them in. How can he be a better defender when RAPTOR says they're equal, and 3 other defensive stats have RJ as better?

The difference between me and you is that I think RJ would be best used as a 3&D player, or as a bench player, and not in a featured role. I think his boxscore stats are vastly misleading, because they are the byproduct of a high-usage that cannot be reconciled with winning at this level of inefficiency. His production in not scalable to a winning situation. It's smoke and mirrors.

I don't value anything that he brings outside of rebounding, C&S 3s and isolation defense. That is a role player in a winning situation, with a bit of extra shot creation as a bench piece, if he commits to defense.

Nah, the difference is I can see what RJ could be if he cleans up some of his efficiency stats, you are just married to the idea that he's not going to get much better. That is really the difference, between us if we were Celtics fans in the summer of 2017, I would have been the guy saying we shouldn't trade Jaylen Brown for PG13, you would have been pointing at his freethrow percentage, RAPTOR, FICO score, FIBA, IRS and TBD stats saying we should absolutely do it because he's never going to be worth more than Andre Iguodala, a proven champion role player.

The point about the added skill of driving to the basket when C&S dry up is a good one but it would require some level of efficiency to be truly valuable for it to really add value. RJ does have more upside than PJ Tucker but Tucker is simply better at the areas of the game where RJ actually makes a contribution, or is expected to.

I value Robert Horry more than Demarcus Cousins. At this stage of RJ's career, I value Tucker's game more than I do his. Same thing.

I didn't say Huerter was a better defender than RJ. I said RJ is not a better defender than Huerter. I think they're close enough on that end of the floor to be ranked in the same tier. Defensive RAPTOR gives them equal value. Defensive RAPM favors Huerter. Defensive rating is a team-oriented stat whereby players are co-dependent, though I think you can infer the impact some players have if they are much better or much worse than the players they most share the court with (though not always). Point is, it's not an indicator of a player's individual defense.

The overarching point is that RJ was not a good defender last season. If Huerter's defense drove the price down for his contract, then it should as well for RJ's own, since their impact is more or less similar.

You're using conjecture with Brown. Brown's efficiency always hovered around league-average, and his athleticism always gave him a higher upside, especially as a defender. Same for Iguodala, actually.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

The point about the added skill of driving to the basket when C&S dry up is a good one but it would require some level of efficiency to be truly valuable for it to really add value. RJ does have more upside than PJ Tucker but Tucker is simply better at the areas of the game where RJ actually makes a contribution, or is expected to.

RJ is a better player, it's harder to find what he is and projects out to be than what PJ is, when the game slows down you saw just how valuable a player like Tucker was for the Heat, donut. You didn't answer my question either, yes or no, would RJ have contributed more than 0 pts in 17 minutes of a game 7.

I value Robert Horry more than Demarcus Cousins. At this stage of RJ's career, I value Tucker's game more than I do his. Same thing.

Is RJ going to become a malcontent? Is PJ going to become a 7 time champion role player? Part of the problem with DeMarcus aside from injuries was his attitude, not even remotely a good comparison. More like, I'd rather have a focus Andrew Wiggins than PJ Tucker Those proxy wars you had about Andrew (Really RJ) aged like milk too.

I didn't say Huerter was a better defender than RJ. I said RJ is not a better defender than Huerter. I think they're close enough on that end of the floor to be ranked in the same tier. Defensive RAPTOR gives them equal value. Defensive RAPM favors Huerter. Defensive rating is a team-oriented stat whereby players are co-dependent, though I think you can infer the impact some players have if they are much better or much worse than the players they most share the court with (though not always). Point is, it's not an indicator of a player's individual defense.

RJ is a better defender, he literally has better advanced stats in more categories of defense, look at how you're trying to explain away and downplay the things, when all that matters is who is better and the stats you use so often say RJ is clearly better. You can't have it both ways, you can't form so many arguments around stats, then try to "Well actually" the ones you don't like that aren't in your favor, you did that with isolation because you knew Huerter's isolation stats are horrible and I wasn't even going to use them because I had the advanced stats trap card in my back pocket.

The overarching point is that RJ was not a good defender last season. If Huerter's defense drove the price down for his contract, then it should as well for RJ's own, since their impact is more or less similar.

You're using conjecture with Brown. Brown's efficiency always hovered around league-average, and his athleticism always gave him a higher upside, especially as a defender. Same for Iguodala, actually.

Huerter's defense didn't drive anything down, I never once said he's not worth the money, I said RJ is better and worth more.

Nope, I'm using your own arguments against you, in 2017 Brown was a 20 year old rookie, he just finished a rookie campaign in which he shot .539% TS, in RJ's second season as a 20 year old player, he shot .535% TS. You made a lot of your arguments about trading RJ around his TS percentage after his second season in which he had better numbers, a higher 3pt percentage etc than Brown who was 20 years old.

You're beholden to the TS, you can't sit here and say you saw what Brown was going to become after his rookie year, especially since he was 20 years old at the time. You would have been saying PG13 is a star, and it's a no brainer to trade for him, because Brown did not project out to what he is today, based on that rookie year, you and I both know it. I'll even go a step further, all of their advanced stats through the first 3 years are shockingly similar, despite Brown being a year older.

[Chanel Bomber]

The point about the added skill of driving to the basket when C&S dry up is a good one but it would require some level of efficiency to be truly valuable for it to really add value. RJ does have more upside than PJ Tucker but Tucker is simply better at the areas of the game where RJ actually makes a contribution, or is expected to.

RJ is a better player, it's harder to find what he is and projects out to be than what PJ is, when the game slows down you saw just how valuable a player like Tucker was for the Heat, donut. You didn't answer my question either, yes or no, would RJ have contributed more than 0 pts in 17 minutes of a game 7.

I value Robert Horry more than Demarcus Cousins. At this stage of RJ's career, I value Tucker's game more than I do his. Same thing.

Is RJ going to become a malcontent? Is PJ going to become a 7 time champion role player? Part of the problem with DeMarcus aside from injuries was his attitude, not even remotely a good comparison. More like, I'd rather have a focus Andrew Wiggins than PJ Tucker Those proxy wars you had about Andrew (Really RJ) aged like milk too.

I didn't say Huerter was a better defender than RJ. I said RJ is not a better defender than Huerter. I think they're close enough on that end of the floor to be ranked in the same tier. Defensive RAPTOR gives them equal value. Defensive RAPM favors Huerter. Defensive rating is a team-oriented stat whereby players are co-dependent, though I think you can infer the impact some players have if they are much better or much worse than the players they most share the court with (though not always). Point is, it's not an indicator of a player's individual defense.

RJ is a better defender, he literally has better advanced stats in more categories of defense, look at how you're trying to explain away and downplay the things, when all that matters is who is better and the stats you use so often say RJ is clearly better. You can't have it both ways, you can't form so many arguments around stats, then try to "Well actually" the ones you don't like that aren't in your favor, you did that with isolation because you knew Huerter's isolation stats are horrible and I wasn't even going to use them because I had the advanced stats trap card in my back pocket.

The overarching point is that RJ was not a good defender last season. If Huerter's defense drove the price down for his contract, then it should as well for RJ's own, since their impact is more or less similar.

You're using conjecture with Brown. Brown's efficiency always hovered around league-average, and his athleticism always gave him a higher upside, especially as a defender. Same for Iguodala, actually.

Huerter's defense didn't drive anything down, I never once said he's not worth the money, I said RJ is better and worth more.

Nope, I'm using your own arguments against you, in 2017 Brown was a 20 year old rookie, he just finished a rookie campaign in which he shot .539% TS, in RJ's second season as a 20 year old player, he shot .535% TS. You made a lot of your arguments about trading RJ around his TS percentage after his second season in which he had better numbers, a higher 3pt percentage etc than Brown who was 20 years old.

You're beholden to the TS, you can't sit here and say you saw what Brown was going to become after his rookie year, especially since he was 20 years old at the time. You would have been saying PG13 is a star, and it's a no brainer to trade for him, because Brown did not project out to what he is today, based on that rookie year, you and I both know it. I'll even go a step further, all of their advanced stats through the first 3 years are shockingly similar, despite Brown being a year older.

Isolation is just one aspect of defense. You can't just use one playtype of defense, which in RJ's case comprised of 59 tracked possessions, which account for less than 2% of all the defensive possessions he was involved in. There is more to defense than isolation defense. To conclude that RJ is a good defender based on those 59 possessions is cherry-picking.

All statistics are not created equal. You have to know what they say. Net rating is a team-oriented statistic, not an impact metric. You play with bad defensive players, you will have a bad defensive rating, even if you are a good defensive player yourself (unless you are a transformative defensive player like Rudy Gobert who makes up for your teammates deficiencies). Stats like RAPTOR and RAPM are much more complex and attempt to extract all the noise that affect more basic stats like defensive rating, which is not meant to evaluate defensive impact to begin with.

So no, I'm not choosing the statistics that I like to support my position. These stats just don't measure the same things. It's by looking at the whole set of statistics and noticing the patterns that I changed my mind on RJ in the first place. I don't selectively choose statistics to fit them into a narrative. I try to adjust the narratives based on the picture that all those statistics paint (and my eye test - with the disclaimer that the eye test is prone to bias, for all of us).

Brown's TS might have been comparable to RJ's in a vacuum but league-average has increased since. That means with a similar percentage, RJ was much less efficient relative to the league than Brown was years prior. That's why I look at league-adjusted TS% when comparing individual seasons from different years/eras. Brown was a 98 in TS+ as a rookie. RJ a 94 in TS+ as a sophomore. 98 was Brown's worst career mark. 94 was RJ's best career mark. You can find those figures in the adjusted shooting section in basketball-reference. Brown's scoring efficiency was always close to or above league-average. That has not been the case for RJ.

Wiggins played very well in the Finals and ranks as one of the fairly rare historical outliers of a player who was incredibly inefficient to start his career, yet was the second or third best player in a series for a championship team. These outliers mostly become #3 options (KCP, Toine, Jrue). And it's only just a possibility - a lot of guys who started this inefficient never adjust to that role, or have this sort of success. I think if RJ is gonna become one of those players, he will likely fit the KCP-Toine mold, or Jrue without the defense. I don't think RJ has the athletic tools to ever be able to finish or defend like Wiggins or Brown for that matter.

[stuporman]

If RJ had a flashy crossover or was a high flying dunker his 20/6/3 at 21 years old would have Knicks fans creaming themselves nonstop but since he isn't that there is a lukewarm feeling towards his upside.

Most fans don't want to trade him because of where he was picked not what he can become which is pretty sad considering how productive he is, how hard he works and his dedication to the Knicks.

[Deeeez Knicks]

That's not the substance of this conversation.

We're debating how (or if) the roster construction excuses RJ of merely meeting the threshold of respectability in scoring efficiency.

I don't think it does, as all the other starters besides Randle somehow managed to score more efficiently than him, while playing with even worse spacing than he did in the case of Burks and Fournier (since they are both better 3-point shooters than RJ).

This notion that him ranking in the bottom of the league in efficiency is entirely (or mostly) due to his teammates or roster construction, and not his own limitations, is not realistic in my opinion. Which, again, is not to say he can't improve. But it's pretty obvious to me that his role needs to be scaled back, and his usage reduced, to where he can meet a reasonable baseline of efficiency.

37% fg from your starting PG is still terrible. No fault of Burks. He just is not a good starting PG. That is not an excuse, but a fact.

In terms of featured options, Knicks don’t really have a good one so agree there. But someone has to take the load so it fell on Randle and RJ who were our 2 most talented players….sad, but true. This is also where having no PG hurts a lot. Knicks just didn’t have a good team and had maybe the worse PG play in the league. They also had some of the worse #1 option in the league so agree with that too.

I agree, he should be scaled back from where he was at the end of the season, but I am also ok with him taking on that role because we didnt have anything else going and might as well. For stretchs, he actually played really well which seems to be ignored. But consistency is very important and he fell off a little at the end. RJ needs to be more consistent but thats ok.

For RJ, no doubt he needs to play better and everyone will say that. Just improving the roster alone won’t fix all his problems. Both can be true. Roster had a lot of issues last year and RJ also needs to play better too.

Burks's FG% was driven by the fact that more than half of his shot attempts were 3s. It naturally trended towards his 3P%. So his FG% was misleading at face value. He was obviously sub-optimal as a starting point guard if you want RJ and Randle to be finishers. He was a solid point guard if you want them to initiate. Which I think goes back to my confusion about what people (not necessarily you - just in general) want from the Knicks regarding RJ. Do they want him to be set up and finish plays, or do they want him to create?

The Knicks could've gone more to Fournier, or IQ, who are both more talented as shot creators. The team suffered from its overall lack of talent, I agree. But they could have run a more equalitarian offense.

As you said, you can make a case for running this experiment in his 3rd year, considering how shambolic that season was at the team level. But now we have the results. We can make an informed decision about whether or not this experiment was worth it, or a failure. Everything points towards the latter. So my suggestion would be to scale down his role, hold him accountable in year 4, judge him by his defensive impact and his efficiency as a scorer (since he doesn't really pass the ball), and then offer him a contract that more or less reflects the value of his contributions (if you don't trade him over the summer).

I agree that RJ would've played marginally better with a better roster around him. You can say that about his teammates as well though. But I think your take is reasonable.

Which I think goes back to my confusion about what people (not necessarily you - just in general) want from the Knicks regarding RJ. Do they want him to be set up and finish plays, or do they want him to create?.

I can't speak to others, but I want RJ doing a little bit of both. Its about finding the right balance between creating and finishing. Ideally he is not the primary guy and we have someone to at least run the offense as a PG. You still need secondary playmakers and that is where RJ fits in better as secondary guy that can do a bit of everything.

Brunson shouldnt be a primary guy either, but at least he gives the Knicks another option and is someone that can run the offense which takes pressure off. He should help create and facilitate for others. Now, I am not a fan of the overall vision, but Brunson in a vacuum is an upgrade at PG and should help the offense, everyone included.

But lets be real...If we are calling for the more Fournier that just proves the point that the Knicks were pretty sad. PJ Tucker, or Royce O'Neal would not be any good either if we put the ball in there hands.

Just the way the Knicks were set up someone had to take those inefficient shots and be the creator...take the hit for the team. That was RJ and Randle...they also happened to help open up shots for Fournier and Burks. Take away RJ and Randle and put the ball more in Burks, Fournier, Royce O'neal, PJ Tuckers, etc hands and their efficiency would drop a lot. It already dropped for Burks as I pointed out.

Like I have been saying though, RJ needs to improve. Its just that this roster was far from ideal for really anyone to succeed.

[thebuzzardman]

Knicks extend RJ yet? I need the drama.

[Obitron64]

We need to sign and trade RJ to get a legit difference maker in here.

[HarthorneWingo]

Knicks extend RJ yet? I need the drama.

I hope they force him to get an outside offer first.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Isolation is just one aspect of defense. You can't just use one playtype of defense, which in RJ's case comprised of 59 tracked possessions, which account for less than 2% of all the defensive possessions he was involved in. There is more to defense than isolation defense. To conclude that RJ is a good defender based on those 59 possessions is cherry-picking.

Why are you still harping on isolation defense, when I already said I never checked Huerters, because I know it's awful and you know it's awful which is why you're doing your best attempt to devalue it. Even if you throw out isolation defense RJ has the edge in more advanced defensive categories, the ones you use all the time. Huerter is not as good of a defender as RJ, you can try and "Well actually" your way out of it, but that's just the cold hard fact.

All statistics are not created equal. You have to know what they say. Net rating is a team-oriented statistic, not an impact metric. You play with bad defensive players, you will have a bad defensive rating, even if you are a good defensive player yourself (unless you are a transformative defensive player like Rudy Gobert who makes up for your teammates deficiencies). Stats like RAPTOR and RAPM are much more complex and attempt to extract all the noise that affect more basic stats like defensive rating, which is not meant to evaluate defensive impact to begin with.

I couldn't care less about whether or not it's basic, RJ has a better one . The fact you're trying this hard to devalue it, just as you are with isolation defense is because you and I both know your "RJ isn't a better defender than Huerter" argument goes up in smoke. You want me to stop the count, sorry Chanel, we count all the votes.

So no, I'm not choosing the statistics that I like to support my position.

You are though, you've had two paragraphs worth of explaining why you don't want to count it. I'm counting it, just like you're ducking my PJ Tucker question.

Brown's TS might have been comparable to RJ's in a vacuum but league-average has increased since. That means with a similar percentage, RJ was much less efficient relative to the league than Brown was years prior. That's why I look at league-adjusted TS% when comparing individual seasons from different years/eras. Brown was a 98 in TS+ as a rookie. RJ a 94 in TS+ as a sophomore. 98 was Brown's worst career mark. 94 was RJ's best career mark. You can find those figures in the adjusted shooting section in basketball-reference. Brown's scoring efficiency was always close to or above league-average. That has not been the case for RJ.

You're splitting hairs here, a 98 and 94 is such a inconsequential difference. I know without a shadow of a doubt you would have been saying Brown isn't worth 4 years $100 million if he were a Knick, you would have been talking about how his numbers are on par with Jeff Greens or something along those lines and fair value for Jaylen would be $12 million per. Their advanced stats are hilariously close through their first 3 years, with RJ being a full year younger than Brown was. You cannot convince me you were sold on Brown between 2017-2019.

Wiggins played very well in the Finals and ranks as one of the fairly rare historical outliers of a player who was incredibly inefficient to start his career, yet was the second or third best player in a series for a championship team. These outliers mostly become #3 options (KCP, Toine, Jrue). And it's only just a possibility - a lot of guys who started this inefficient never adjust to that role, or have this sort of success. I think if RJ is gonna become one of those players, he will likely fit the KCP-Toine mold, or Jrue without the defense. I don't think RJ has the athletic tools to ever be able to finish or defend like Wiggins or Brown for that matter.

Or, he could have a career arc like Victor Oladipo, if it weren't for the injuries Oladipo would make for a number 2, maybe he's like Kyle Lowry who didn't even come into his own until he was 26 years old. There are far more players out there than just Toine, Jrue and KCP. RJ being high character with a good work ethic is why I think he can become a more efficient player, if he were someone like Kevin Porter I'd be saying to trade him immediately, because attitude does go a long way.

Also, I see you refuse to answer whether or not RJ would have impacted game 7 more than PJ Tucker, who was -16 in 17 minutes, 0-3 with 2 turnovers, they got absolutely nothing from a starter in a 4 point loss. That is 3 or 4 times I've asked you, and 3-4 times you have avoided answering, I'm not going to continue this without an answer. I want to see just how much you're willing to spin this, your refusal to answer makes me laugh too, cause I know it would hurt your soul to have to say RJ would in fact score more than 0 pts, which is more than someone who is supposedly better than him.

[HarthorneWingo]

We need the OP to add a poll to the thread for a 5 year deal.

$20M/year

$25M/year

$27.5M/year

$30M/year

More than Brunson

Less than Brunson

[Adelheid]

brunson money or slightly less, but 5 years. 5/130 tops

thats i think what the team would offer him

[Jeffrey]

We need the OP to add a poll to the thread for a 5 year deal.

$20M/year

$25M/year

$27.5M/year

$30M/year

More than Brunson

Less than Brunson

Done, add a poll

[HarthorneWingo]

I mistakenly voted for $25-32M. It should be 3-1 for $20-25M, not 2-2. I thought I could edit it but I can't.

[thebuzzardman]

Other young players trying to get better, RJ getting fat with his Duke buddy!

Watch on YouTube

[HarthorneWingo]

Other young players trying to get better, RJ getting fat with his Duke buddy!

Watch on YouTube

If RJ starts jab-stepping for 8 seconds, then he has to go.

[nedleeds]

If RJ had a flashy crossover or was a high flying dunker his 20/6/3 at 21 years old would have Knicks fans creaming themselves nonstop but since he isn't that there is a lukewarm feeling towards his upside.

I'd settle for not the one of the worst 25 shooters who play in the league and can jump over a phone book actually. My standards are very reasonable.

[nedleeds]

Or, he could have a career arc like Victor Oladipo

If Oladipo's athleticism, first step and burst at age 21 was an 8/10, what do you put RJ's at?

[N Y K]

Read on Twitter

?

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Or, he could have a career arc like Victor Oladipo

If Oladipo's athleticism, first step and burst at age 21 was an 8/10, what do you put RJ's at?

He's 6'6", he doesn't need Oladipo's athleticism, he needs Jimmy Butler weight, getting bigger & stronger and up to 230lbs would be just as beneficial, but yall are obsessed with athleticism in a league where the best young perimeter player can't jump over a phone book.