Tanking- an honest discussion

[stitches]

I read some comment here earlier that Ainge has never tanked - that's actually NOT true. Go check Boston's 2006-2007 season. They TANKED HARD for the Odom/KD sweepstakes and finished with the second worst record in the NBA, but the lottery balls sent them to no. 5. You can call that 2013-2014 season a tank too after similar to today he sent away Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett to BKN.

[SoCalJazzFan]

I read what you said you stopped at an arbitrary point that helped your argument, knowing it's clear the quality of top 5 picks are getting better. You know Doncic, Morant are that guy already and Young, Garland, Edwards, and Ball are well on their way with Zion, Cunningham, Mobley, and Barnes showing definitive signs. Also Ayton, Jackson, Barrett, Hunter, Williams, Green all showing something, Okoro and Bagley are the only bad picks in four years.

It wasn't an arbitrary point, it was players who have been in the league long enough to have finished their rookie contract and gone beyond the hype of their draft selection.

Your comments show a lingering recency bias towards the hype of a player coming out of college and their draft number. RJ Barrett and DeAndre Hunter have been subpar players with the hope that given their size and draft selection that they will still live up to their overall hype. Zion was drafted 3-4 years ago and I would say the jury is still out on what his legacy will be. Currently, he has not helped his team get to the playoffs and is starting to get the reputation of an often injured, overweight and out of shape player.

Some of the players selected the past few years certainly have lived up to their hype (Doncic and Morant), but there are others in their draft classes who were underestimated and in a redraft would be near the top, such as SGA #11, Mikal Bridges #10, Jordan Poole #28, etc. Brunson #33 just signed a $100M deal.

Are the players getting better and the front offices getting better at making selections? Perhaps. However, I don't think you can base that on the drafts from the past couple of years as the pull of hype that convices you that there is still potential is too high. Is there a greater chance of hitting a homerun in the top 5? Maybe, but the Jazz' #13 and #27 selections far outshined their prior #2, #3 and #5 selections.

The draft is a crapshoot and tanking for a top 5 pick doesn't guarantee any results.

[SoCalJazzFan]

The Jazz could very realistically obtain the following players in their trades of DM and other vets:
PG Sexton (#8 pick)
SG RJ Barrett (#3)
SF Reddish (#10)
PF Toppin (#8)
C Ayton (#1)

All young and full of promise still. Would you go this route and perhaps spend a couple of first picks to get this lineup instead of tearing things down to the studs and completely relying on future drafts? If not, why? These are all top 10 picks, even a #1 and a #3, that could take a lot of lottery luck and years to obtain through the draft.

[Catchall]

I think Ainge wants to build a competitive team and draft with other teams' picks. That's what he did in Boston.

[SoCalJazzFan]

I think Ainge wants to build a competitive team and draft with other teams' picks. That's what he did in Boston.

Personally, that is what I hope he does. Waiting for 4+ years of the team tanking and drafting players and then hoping that those players pan out and even if they do waiting the several years until they do is not very appealing. Building a young team that I can cheer for while hoping that the best picks land someone special or perhaps even just a player or two to take the team to contender status is much more appealing to me (and financially viable for Ryan Smith).

[MalonesElbows]

I think Ainge wants to build a competitive team and draft with other teams' picks. That's what he did in Boston.

Personally, that is what I hope he does. Waiting for 4+ years of the team tanking and drafting players and then hoping that those players pan out and even if they do waiting the several years until they do is not very appealing. Building a young team that I can cheer for while hoping that the best picks land someone special or perhaps even just a player or two to take the team to contender status is much more appealing to me (and financially viable for Ryan Smith).

That's what the new lottery odds try to encourage. If the Jazz finish 8th worst, they will still have a 6% at getting #1 and 19% chance getting in the top 3. Finishing dead last doubles those chances, but at the risk of alienating your fan base, operating at a loss, and having a toxic, losing culture (like Sacramento)

[Gert42]

I'm OK with the Jazz trying to bottom out this year and see what happens for the '23 draft. I also think that we try to get as many of the young pieces they actually like from the Knicks to see how they will develop. Without Gobert & Mitchell this is one of the 6-7 worst teams in the league next year. I don't think the Jazz have to have to absolutely bottom out because Malones Elbows is right, you don't want to create a losing culture just for a better percentage.

[SoCalJazzFan]

I think that the Jazz were actually seriously considering retooling around Mitchell, which is why there were the connections to Sexton and Ayton. However, at this point, I think that it is going to be a full tear down. If you are not on a rookie or favorable contract, you're probably going to be dealt and the Jazz will probably tank hard for at least two years before they pivot or could tank and be bad for many years depending on how things work out. Buckle up, it could be rough.

[AingesBurner]

I’m on the VW train, gotta tank hard for that guy. D like Rudy, O like Jokic, and dominant like Shaq.

[dr0welf]

Yeah good luck with that..... I've never seen us have any luck in the lottery. The one real good chance we had we moved back.

[bkohler]

I’m on the VW train, gotta tank hard for that guy. D like Rudy, O like Jokic, and dominant like Shaq.

I also really like Scoot; if you could somehow get both of them you’d be setup for the next decade.

[jrj202]

I think that the Jazz were actually seriously considering retooling around Mitchell, which is why there were the connections to Sexton and Ayton. However, at this point, I think that it is going to be a full tear down. If you are not on a rookie or favorable contract, you're probably going to be dealt and the Jazz will probably tank hard for at least two years before they pivot or could tank and be bad for many years depending on how things work out. Buckle up, it could be rough.

I hope that we get Grimes, Toppin, and McBride from the Knicks. Next year won't be fun but I'd like to see those three plus Bolmaro, Kessler, Vanderbilt, and Butler all get serious burn.

[pickIBL]

I barely have time to watch basketball, so I don't post much anymore. But I had to get one comment in on this. I'm obviously a big Gobert fan. I enjoyed Mutombo growing up.

But as much as I'm into those guys the NBA marketing machine is not. While they are made for the international game the NBA wants three pointers... AND DUNKS! So they need to continue doing what they've always done to the Mikans and Chamberlains of the world.

I can remember back to the tail end of Bird/Magic era but really started to understand the game post Pistons/Bulls as Barkley & Jordan dominated the league. As chubby GM eventually got his wish with Tim Floyd and the Baby Bulls. Rebuilding is sexy now, but there are a lot of really bad examples looking back.

I understand the Gobert trade. It was a haul for a guy that doesn't fit the direction of the NBA.

But I just wanted to say as a Gobert fan I'd urge the franchise to be cautious trading Mitchell. It would really have to be another massive haul for it to make sense. Mitchell is only 25 and at PG he fits the current NBA. I'd rather a Spurs tank versus a Bulls tank personally.

It might be better for a quicker rebuild. I also have to offer a word of caution about the first pick of 2023. The French super-prospect sounds like exactly the guy I'd like. A Porzingis/Gobert monster. Well I think he'll probably measure out at 7'4 or 7'5 in shoes at the draft.

I'd say he has to be able to step out on the perimeter, rotate, and guard. At 7'4 is that happening? Or is he too tall? How many guys this tall stay healthy long term?

He's not Durant, Giannis, etc. He may be taller than the game.

When Stockton & Malone are gone Or Deron/Boozer, etc it can be a long waiting game for winning. Free agents don't flock to Utah. I'd just say be careful what you wish for.