Colbinii wrote:Pointgod wrote:Colbinii wrote:
Of course tanking doesn't always mean success. If their was a strategy which was 100% successful then every team would follow it.
The advantage of tanking is allowing for teams, typically of markets that aren't huge or destinations that aren't as desirable, to acquire talent they otherwise wouldn't be able to via Free Agency or trades.
You don't need to tank but its a proven strategy that has a high chance of success.
Does it though? Look at the teams that drafted 4 or more all-stars in the past 20 years. Out of all those teams only Philly, Lakers, Cleveland and OKC went on a multi year tank. And even perennial lottery participants like Orlando, Sac, Phoenix, Knicks, Minnesota, Clippers have less all-stars to despite getting way more opportunities to draft them.
I dont want to be talking past each other so let me know if you disagree with this.
I assume the following:
1) The higher the pick, the more likely a player becomes a superstar--a player who is a cornerstone for a franchise.
2) Tanking allows a team to have a higher chance at picking at the top of the draft.
If you believe 1 and 2 are true, then you must also assume the point of tanking isn't to draft an all-star but rather a
superstar. This is the point of tanking--to acquire someone who can turn around your franchise and be the best player on a potential title contender and are surefire
The players who fit this on the list: Embiid, Rose, LeBron, CP3, AD, Durant/Westbrook/Harden, Luka, Curry, Dwight, Wade, Jokic, Kawhi, Giannis.
Of these guys, 6 were picked in the Top 2, 5 were picked in the Top 5 while Kawhi and Giannis were lottery picks [Jokic being a 2nd round pick].
Thats a huge point of evidence screaming to the Top End of the draft having the Top End talent. Add in guys like Trae, Ja, Tatum, Zion, Edwards and thats all Top 5 picks.
I dont really care about the Khris Middleton, Mo Williams or Roy Hibberts.
As a math and logic based thinker, there is a clear and measurable advantage when picking at the top of the draft and getting a franchise player.
There have been many analysis done and the end result is the pick that had the highest probability of becoming an allstar never mind superstar is the #1 overall pick. After that, the expected value of a player by draft position decreases significantly. Based on this analysis, the median player of the number one overall pick is John Wall.
https://www.theringer.com/2021/7/28/22597310/nba-draft-expectationsGiven the lottery odds the 4 worst teams have all have a 14% chance of getting the overall pick. Hitting the number 1 overall pick, the pick that has the highest probability of an superstar 3 years in a row is less than 1%. This is why a prolonged tank doesn’t actually make sense as a championship strategy. There’s no accounting for the strength of the draft, drafting the right player, all your players popping at the same time and you also can’t control how bad other teams are going to be. Even the team with the best example of hitting all of their picks, OKC, only had one finals appearance to show for it. I think the higher you draft, there’s a very slight increase in getting an allstar but it’s completely overstated.
Let’s look at the list of superstars you provided.
The players who fit this on the list: Embiid, Rose, LeBron, CP3, AD, Durant/Westbrook/Harden, Luka, Curry, Dwight, Wade, Jokic, Kawhi, Giannis.
Of the list Kawhi, Wade, Curry, Giannis and Lebron won championships with the team that drafted them. Lebron returned as a free agent but okay I’ll give you that one for sake of argument. Kawhi and Giannis aren’t lottery picks, and only Wade and Lebron were in the top 5. Durant, AD and Kawhi all have titles with their second team. It’s a bit of a mixed bagged, there’s no guarantee that prolonged tanking leads to championship success. And if you go back to the original post how many of those teams won a championship with the allstar players that they drafted? Cleveland, Toronto, Golden State, Boston, Miami, Milwaukee. And in all these cases except for Milwaukee and Golden State’s first chip, I can make the argument that a free agent signing or trading for another allstar was the catalyst for the championships vs drafting multiple allstars or superstars.
Overall I think it’s more about smart drafting and team management than just expecting multiple years of tanking to lead to championships. Great management like Memphis, Toronto, Miami, Golden State etc can find productive players in multiple positions of the draft, but don’t rely on tanking as a crutch.
Here’s another article that’s a bit dated but the analysis is still relevant.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1992556-nba-tanking-draft-lottery-success-doesnt-mean-future-titles Overall, 112 players have been top four picks since 1985, with David Robinson and Tim Duncan being the only two to lead their original teams to a title. On the other hand, lower lottery selections Dwyane Wade (chosen at No. 5), Dirk Nowitzki (No. 9), Paul Pierce (No. 10) and Kobe Bryant (No. 13) have all been named Finals MVP while capturing championships for the franchises that drafted them.
