AirP. wrote:BenoUdrihFTL wrote:
So again you refuse to acknowledge the very important and relevant context informing why Herro's 10 whole games as a starter by definition meant that the offense was already significantly depleted and therefore not a useful sample for analysis of Herro's value on this team (if we can assume this team is meant to include Butler and Bam). He posted a TS over 55% as a starter in 2021 (in 50% more games), so either he dramatically regressed in 2022 or perhaps there's something to the fact that 60% of those 2021 starts (compared to 0% in 2022) were with both Butler and Bam. Perhaps there's something to the fact that 2021's starts came within the steady familiar flow of the intended role both he and the team practiced and gameplanned for (14 of 15 starts came in his first 14 games as he was a designated starter heading into the season), compared to 2022 when from day 1 he was the designated 6th man and was only sporadically thrust into the SL in times of emergency lineup shuffling
Since I don't have the stats of Herro vs good defenders and Herro vs bad defenders I look at situations that tend to be Herro vs better defenders like... going against starters (which should be the better players on a team) and playoff teams (which tend to have more good defenders) vs caring a whole lot that Herro can score at will say... the Hornets. Boston, who was a great defensive team last year Herro had horrible stats vs them in 3 games. I don't know what to tell you, Herro is skilled enough to really make bad defenders pay but not the athletic ability to do the same vs the better defenders which he'll end up having to play against since he'll be a bigger part of the payroll. I see him as a good scorer in the regular season, not so much in the playoffs, it's possible he gains the counters to change that, but he hadn't up to this last season.
It's just weird, if I don't say Herro is just "incredible" I must say he sucks. No, he's highly skilled where he can eat up bad defenders and even some average defenders, not everyone can do that. He just has been really bad on defense and with that combo I wouldn't invest a lot of money on him. I even said last year he could average over 20 a game if he concentrated on scoring which 17 shots a game kind of indicates. What's going to be interesting is what Herro could end up being a better player this year and actually score less per game, will he be a worse player? No, it'll be that his role had changed.
2021... I don't think he was nearly as bad as a starter as other people though, his offense was fine for his 2nd year, it was his defense which was and still is a big issue.
BTW... I wouldn't pay players like Beal or LaVine big money either to let you know where I'm coming from. Replace Beal with a guy like Butler and that team is a way better team since he plays well both ways.Want to know when we can deduce that Herro was playing significant minutes with Butler and Bam against starters, and with a far superior sample size to boot? Herro played the 6th most 4th quarter mins in the NBA last season wherein he averaged 22.3 points per 36 on over 59% TS. This is his overall 4th quarter average performance across all the games he played over the entire season, against all teams he played, with all lineups he was a part of. It doesn't isolate a handful of games when injuries to his best teammates allowed opponents to load up on him, or cherry pick games against top defenses -- we don't evaluate any players' worth based strictly on universally least favorable scenarios and yet for some reason this is the standard we're holding 22yo Tyler Herro to?
Yes, Herro played a ton of minutes which also means he was playing a lot of bench guys for the first 2-6 minutes of the 4th quarter and also some games that were out of reach whereas players like Bam and Butler would go to the bench. I really need to get pbp data to extract to get some numbers that could either strengthen or weaken my argument.
BTW... everyone was good with Butler or Bam, another reason I'm not sure Herro is a good value at his new contract vs someone else who can be good in the same role.
Butler with X is +/- pts per 100Spoiler:
Bam with X +/- pts per 100Spoiler:
If the goal is to win a championship, you need a bad defender to be a dominate scorer which Robinson was the Bubble season, not so much last year which is why he got replaced. I don't think Herro's offense is good enough to make up for his defense and I'm not sure it ever will but we'll see in the next few years.
Bams impact
