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Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert

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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#981 » by TimberKat » Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:02 am

Klomp wrote:
KGdaBom wrote:
Nick K wrote:
I agree. Well said Klomp.

I guess at least some of it is still talking about the trade. I still think it's time to retire this one.

We are still talking about the trade, just in comparison with a previous blockbuster.

My reason for bringing the thread back up is because the discussion was specific to the trade itself, not to Rudy Gobert individually.

We will be talking about this thread for years to come.
Did Kessler turn into a rotational player? Is he better than Reid?
Did Jazz able to MB, V8 into 1st round picks?
Did Jazz get an all star player from the Wolves picks?
Was the NBA final appearance worth the price? (Dreaming? yes)
We could had kept DLow or Nowell if we didn't made that trade
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#982 » by KGdaBom » Wed Oct 12, 2022 5:06 am

Since we want to keep this thread going I'll share this about Walker Kessler here.

Walker Kessler came off the bench and hit 5-of-6. shots for 12 points, seven rebounds, one assist and Four blocks in 24 minutes on Tuesday.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#983 » by winforlose » Wed Oct 12, 2022 5:10 am

KGdaBom wrote:Since we want to keep this thread going I'll share this about Walker Kessler here.

Walker Kessler came off the bench and hit 5-of-6. shots for 12 points, seven rebounds, one assist and Four blocks in 24 minutes on Tuesday.


True. But, Walker Kessler had 0 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, and 0 stocks in the first half. In 5:51 of play he picked up 4 fouls. He played 18:45 of the second half and only picked up 1 foul in that entire half. Given that he did not start the first half I assume he did not start the second. So a lot of what he accomplished was against the end of bench of the Spurs. Definitely good numbers, but the context matters as well.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#984 » by winforlose » Wed Oct 12, 2022 5:56 pm

Copies from Canis user Monty Wildhack

“ Portion of an ESPN article on the Wolves and the Gobert trade is below, cannot wait to see the full team in action!


Part of the rationale was the well-established skills Gobert, a four-time All-NBA selection, brings himself. But what might have sold the Wolves was what their in-depth analysis predicted he will do for new teammates Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell.
Finch, who has developed a reputation for being a tactician in his first two years as coach, spent hours wearing out some dry erase markers on the whiteboard going over how he saw it all would fit.

His assistant coaches and the basketball operations staff discussed where the Wolves would be vulnerable, how certain teams could exploit them and what all the downsides were looking for a reason to say no.

They couldn't find one, especially when they rationalized that they didn't have to give up any of their top four players: Towns, Edwards, Russell and McDaniels.

"It's a very small list of elite players," said Minnesota president of basketball operations Tim Connelly, who signed a five-year, 40 million contract with the franchise in May.

"When you're able to add a difference-maker and not trade a guy in a similar tier, it's so rare ... we didn't think we'd get a call like this for a long, long, long time."

Sachin Gupta, the team's vice president of basketball operations and one of the league's most respected analytics specialists, poured forth statistics on what adding Gobert would mean.

One potential boon for Towns, who only took five 3-pointers per game last season but shot over 40% on them: Could playing with Gobert increase his attempts by 50% or even double them?

"We faced so much doubling in the post with KAT last year," Finch said. "There were guys that the other teams didn't even guard honestly."

Towns also frequently dealt with foul trouble guarding opposing centers. Gobert can ease that and if they split time playing center, it would open new opportunities.

They look at how having Gobert to protect the rim might enable Edwards, who was 11th in the league in steals last season, to be even more aggressive.

They looked at Russell, who hasn't played in Minnesota with the kind of screen-setter that Gobert is and the projections on their pairing in that play looked tasty on the spreadsheets.

The general idea was to keep Towns and Edwards together all the time -- they were the heart of an offense developed last season that was No. 1 in the league after Jan. 1 -- and then have Gobert and Russell out there together as much as possible, ensuring 48 minutes of firepower if the groups were staggered correctly.”
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#985 » by Klomp » Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:19 pm

winforlose wrote:Definitely good numbers, but the context matters as well.

tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#986 » by Klomp » Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:23 pm

KGdaBom wrote:Since we want to keep this thread going I'll share this about Walker Kessler here.

No one should feel obligated to post in a particular thread. It's fine if it dies naturally, there's just no reason to force it into retirement with a lock.
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#987 » by KGdaBom » Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:55 pm

Klomp wrote:
winforlose wrote:Definitely good numbers, but the context matters as well.


Everybody looks good in highlights, but I loved what I saw.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#988 » by shrink » Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:35 pm

I’m posting this here, since it is about the price we paid in the Gobert trade.

But how valuable is a pick swap? To answer that question, we surveyed every first-round swap in NBA history, according to the Pro Sports Transactions archives. We recorded whether the swap was exercised, and if so, how much value the exercising team gained by exchanging picks, using Kevin Pelton’s calculations of pick values as a benchmark.

The results suggest that pick swaps aren’t anywhere near as important as they might seem. Historically, a first-round pick swap has been only about as valuable as the no. 36 overall pick. That’s worth repeating: The average first-round pick swap returns second-round value! And several team executives agree that—within the league itself, and especially in the public view—swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star.


https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#989 » by TimberKat » Wed Oct 12, 2022 11:40 pm

winforlose wrote:Copies from Canis user Monty Wildhack

“ Portion of an ESPN article on the Wolves and the Gobert trade is below, cannot wait to see the full team in action!

"It's a very small list of elite players," said Minnesota president of basketball operations Tim Connelly, who signed a five-year, 40 million contract with the franchise in May.

"When you're able to add a difference-maker and not trade a guy in a similar tier, it's so rare ... we didn't think we'd get a call like this for a long, long, long time."

Towns also frequently dealt with foul trouble guarding opposing centers. Gobert can ease that and if they split time playing center, it would open new opportunities.

They look at how having Gobert to protect the rim might enable Edwards, who was 11th in the league in steals last season, to be even more aggressive.

The general idea was to keep Towns and Edwards together all the time -- they were the heart of an offense developed last season that was No. 1 in the league after Jan. 1 -- and then have Gobert and Russell out there together as much as possible, ensuring 48 minutes of firepower if the groups were staggered correctly.”


I always felt Towns is better off as a 4 anyway, save the wear and tear both physically and mentally. I don't have to hear any more "Why do those dummies have their center shooting 3s?" from Charles Barkley.

Also, does this mean that we can fire Tim Connelly now? He effectively done 4 years of work in one summer :-) We won't see another trade like this for a long, long time.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#990 » by Colbinii » Thu Oct 13, 2022 4:29 pm

shrink wrote:I’m posting this here, since it is about the price we paid in the Gobert trade.

But how valuable is a pick swap? To answer that question, we surveyed every first-round swap in NBA history, according to the Pro Sports Transactions archives. We recorded whether the swap was exercised, and if so, how much value the exercising team gained by exchanging picks, using Kevin Pelton’s calculations of pick values as a benchmark.

The results suggest that pick swaps aren’t anywhere near as important as they might seem. Historically, a first-round pick swap has been only about as valuable as the no. 36 overall pick. That’s worth repeating: The average first-round pick swap returns second-round value! And several team executives agree that—within the league itself, and especially in the public view—swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star.


https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks


Yeah--Swaps are not very valuable but I would push back a bit on the way they valued them here in the article quoted [Not trying to spar Shrink!].

1) I think Mean isn't the best way to describe a Swap as I view a Swap as a Lottery Ticket for a "Unlikely Value but if it hits it can hit huge". As your example says, the actual expected value is low [An early 2nd is worth Cash or future 2nds] but there is a different in "real value" between an asset that is a real 2nd [Pick #36] and a small chance at a Top 5 or Lottery Pick with a high chance at nothing.

2) I agree fans typically overrate Swaps but I dont think GMs do. I think most GMs willingly throw them into trades and treat them as if they are 2nds--icing on the cake. I don't think the Swaps in the Gobert Deal were really something Connely cared about throwing in and I doubt Ainge was screaming "We need the Swaps!".

I think we are going to see a continued shift where 1st round picks become devalued over time, especially once more uncertainty around prospects emerges as High Schoolers re-enter the draft [The "DoubleDraft" will still hold significant value].

But yeah, I dont expect ANY of the Swaps in the Gobert deal to convey.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#991 » by shrink » Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:38 pm

Colbinii wrote:
shrink wrote:I’m posting this here, since it is about the price we paid in the Gobert trade.

But how valuable is a pick swap? To answer that question, we surveyed every first-round swap in NBA history, according to the Pro Sports Transactions archives. We recorded whether the swap was exercised, and if so, how much value the exercising team gained by exchanging picks, using Kevin Pelton’s calculations of pick values as a benchmark.

The results suggest that pick swaps aren’t anywhere near as important as they might seem. Historically, a first-round pick swap has been only about as valuable as the no. 36 overall pick. That’s worth repeating: The average first-round pick swap returns second-round value! And several team executives agree that—within the league itself, and especially in the public view—swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star.


https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks


Yeah--Swaps are not very valuable but I would push back a bit on the way they valued them here in the article quoted [Not trying to spar Shrink!].

1) I think Mean isn't the best way to describe a Swap as I view a Swap as a Lottery Ticket for a "Unlikely Value but if it hits it can hit huge". As your example says, the actual expected value is low [An early 2nd is worth Cash or future 2nds] but there is a different in "real value" between an asset that is a real 2nd [Pick #36] and a small chance at a Top 5 or Lottery Pick with a high chance at nothing.

2) I agree fans typically overrate Swaps but I dont think GMs do. I think most GMs willingly throw them into trades and treat them as if they are 2nds--icing on the cake. I don't think the Swaps in the Gobert Deal were really something Connely cared about throwing in and I doubt Ainge was screaming "We need the Swaps!".

I think we are going to see a continued shift where 1st round picks become devalued over time, especially once more uncertainty around prospects emerges as High Schoolers re-enter the draft [The "DoubleDraft" will still hold significant value].

But yeah, I dont expect ANY of the Swaps in the Gobert deal to convey.

Great post! I agree with all of it, especially the bit I underlined.

One of the most fascinating parts of the NBA is that a single, superstar player has more value here than in any major sport. A 1-in-5 chance of getting LeBron vs a 4-5 chance of getting Greg Oden is still immensely valuable, even if Oden weighs down that average value of the pick. And as you mentioned, with so much more uncertainty in a younger draft, the more chances to find the LeBron amongst the Odens, the better.

Regarding the Gobert trade, if I was Danny Ainge, I would be saying, “You’ve seen Gobert, and seen his advanced stats. You know he is about the only star that you could get. You also know I don’t have to trade him, and you’re offering some future picks without even a headliner in the deal.. not even Jaden McDaniels? In that case, I want those 1sts, and I want pick swaps too. Maybe those swaps aren’t worth a ton, but they help the optics on the package, when I have to sell it to the Jazz fans.”
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#992 » by TimberKat » Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:32 am

shrink wrote:[quote
Regarding the Gobert trade, if I was Danny Ainge, I would be saying, “You’ve seen Gobert, and seen his advanced stats. You know he is about the only star that you could get. You also know I don’t have to trade him, and you’re offering some future picks without even a headliner in the deal.. not even Jaden McDaniels? In that case, I want those 1sts, and I want pick swaps too. Maybe those swaps aren’t worth a ton, but they help the optics on the package, when I have to sell it to the Jazz fans.”


This is one point I feel national coverage didn't discuss enough. We naturally paid higher price because Jazz may decide to reload instead of rebuild. Connelly wasn't trying to outbid himself but made an offer Ainge can't refuse that also keeping the core. Once the Gobert trade happened, Jazz was on a path of no return. It naturally drives down the price of their remaining players. Knicks were counting on it and didn't think Cavs were in the mix.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#993 » by winforlose » Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:48 am

So I was thinking about how the Wolves have deliberately emphasized the North with the all eyes north slogan. This of course lends itself to Game of Thrones themes. I think it is obvious that if we do well the fan base will lean into it. Finch will either be the King in the North or the Warden of the North. Based on that I was thinking about what the other guys would be. Rudy is “The shield that guards the realms of men.” I mean when you think about it, the paint is the realm and Rudy is the best paint protector ever. Maybe if we win a title we start calling Rudy Lord Commander?
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#994 » by a8bil » Tue Oct 25, 2022 4:32 pm

I kinda feared that the trade would not be the immediate success that TW fans were all hoping it would be. Vanderbilt really is one of those important "glue" guys whose contributions are not fully reflected in the box score. Beasley is a solid contributor off the bench. Ultimately, Gobert may prove to be a massive upgrade to those 2, but apparently it will take some time for the team to figure out how to fill the gaps they left, and for everyone to learn to play to Gobert's strengths. Hopefully, 20 games into the season, the answers are clearer.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#995 » by Klomp » Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:08 pm

a8bil wrote:I kinda feared that the trade would not be the immediate success that TW fans were all hoping it would be. Vanderbilt really is one of those important "glue" guys whose contributions are not fully reflected in the box score. Beasley is a solid contributor off the bench. Ultimately, Gobert may prove to be a massive upgrade to those 2, but apparently it will take some time for the team to figure out how to fill the gaps they left, and for everyone to learn to play to Gobert's strengths. Hopefully, 20 games into the season, the answers are clearer.

We were able to replace Beasley just fine with Nowell. Vanderbilt's replacement was Gobert. I don't feel bad about that swap.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#996 » by a8bil » Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:20 pm

Klomp wrote:
a8bil wrote:I kinda feared that the trade would not be the immediate success that TW fans were all hoping it would be. Vanderbilt really is one of those important "glue" guys whose contributions are not fully reflected in the box score. Beasley is a solid contributor off the bench. Ultimately, Gobert may prove to be a massive upgrade to those 2, but apparently it will take some time for the team to figure out how to fill the gaps they left, and for everyone to learn to play to Gobert's strengths. Hopefully, 20 games into the season, the answers are clearer.

We were able to replace Beasley just fine with Nowell. Vanderbilt's replacement was Gobert. I don't feel bad about that swap.
It's not about feeling bad or good...Gobert's an asset no matter what. On paper, the swap is a clear upgrade. But, how do you assess whether the pieces the TW's have now fit together better now than what the TWs had last year? It's really early in the season and it's hard to draw any firm conclusions, but so far it seems that the 1st team is trying to figure out how to play with Gobert.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#997 » by Klomp » Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:32 pm

a8bil wrote:It's not about feeling bad or good...Gobert's an asset no matter what. On paper, the swap is a clear upgrade. But, how do you assess whether the pieces the TW's have now fit together better now than what the TWs had last year? It's really early in the season and it's hard to draw any firm conclusions, but so far it seems that the 1st team is trying to figure out how to play with Gobert.

I get that. And it might be true. But we are four games into the season. These things take time.

Ultimately, the Towns and Gobert pairing might not work. But that still doesn't make the Gobert trade a bad one. Ultimately, what we may be witnessing is the beginning of the end of Towns in Minnesota. That's something that may not have been realistic without the Gobert trade happening first.

At the end of the day, this will be Ant's team for decades. Gobert will never get in the way of that. Towns may just shut Ant out of another overtime though.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#998 » by m2002brian » Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:35 pm

Klomp wrote:
a8bil wrote:It's not about feeling bad or good...Gobert's an asset no matter what. On paper, the swap is a clear upgrade. But, how do you assess whether the pieces the TW's have now fit together better now than what the TWs had last year? It's really early in the season and it's hard to draw any firm conclusions, but so far it seems that the 1st team is trying to figure out how to play with Gobert.

I get that. And it might be true. But we are four games into the season. These things take time.

Ultimately, the Towns and Gobert pairing might not work. But that still doesn't make the Gobert trade a bad one. Ultimately, what we may be witnessing is the beginning of the end of Towns in Minnesota. That's something that may not have been realistic without the Gobert trade happening first.

At the end of the day, this will be Ant's team for decades. Gobert will never get in the way of that. Towns may just shut Ant out of another overtime though.



When Ant said he liked playing with the smaller lineup because they don’t care who shoots and the ball doesn’t stick, it feels like a clear message to the higher ups that he doesn’t enjoy playing with KAT.
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#999 » by Klomp » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:42 pm

m2002brian wrote:When Ant said he liked playing with the smaller lineup because they don’t care who shoots and the ball doesn’t stick, it feels like a clear message to the higher ups that he doesn’t enjoy playing with KAT.

I feel like he's also said though that he prefers Towns' popping over Gobert's rolling so who the heck knows....
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Re: Woj: Wolves trade for Gobert 

Post#1000 » by m2002brian » Tue Oct 25, 2022 7:56 pm

Klomp wrote:
m2002brian wrote:When Ant said he liked playing with the smaller lineup because they don’t care who shoots and the ball doesn’t stick, it feels like a clear message to the higher ups that he doesn’t enjoy playing with KAT.

I feel like he's also said though that he prefers Towns' popping over Gobert's rolling so who the heck knows....


Maybe, but the OKC game it seemed him and GoB were starting to figure that out. Ant was getting some nice drives on GoB screens. But I’m sure in general he prefers to have someone to pass out to instead of someone down low taking up his space. That popper could easily be Gordon Hayward or Harrison Barnes though, it’s just a preference base on his style of play.

His comments on playing with guys who are unselfish and don’t hold the ball seemed to speak more to other people’s style of play.
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