frankenwolf wrote:winforlose wrote:shrink wrote:Hey, I’m all for a good churn, especially when we have a talent evaluator like Connelly at the helm.
I just think I’m going to have to be patient. I feel like right now, the Timberwolves are one of the least likely teams to do any trades for the next few months, as we adjust to our new chemistry. It’s kind of a tribute to a good off-season - rarely do we finish one without some very obvious holes that need to be fixed ASAP.
You are correct. The only thing that might shake this up is the extension negotiations. Finch just made it really difficult to resign Naz (see his post game interview.) Jaylen, probably wants more money and minutes than we are currently offering. I do think we go up to meet his demands as he is worth it. I think we also resign Dlo at between 25-30 to keep the window open. All of this could suggest trade talks around the deadline, with a lot of rumors before it.
I am not a cap guru/salary guy, but do you really think they will sign D'Lo for 30/yr? Other discussions have had him a lot closer to 22, maybe 25.
I'll hang up and listen, thanks.
Shrink kind of covered a lot of what I was gonna say, but I feel I should add a few things.
1. Payrolls: The payrolls went from creeping up a few years ago to exploding now. It is becoming true that to contend (not simply make the playoffs,) you must spend big money. But, the rules don’t let you spend money over the tax outside of the MLE (or tax payer MLE,) and minimum contracts. This creates this weird space where you need to spend money but cannot. Enter point number 2.
2. Bird rights: Bird rights are the magic exception to the cap that allow teams to go from 149 million to 170 million or more over night. Bird rights are how the Warriors kept their team together, how the Clippers and Bucks, and other expensive teams kept their group together, and it is essential for us to do the same. Not only for continuity, but also for deal making. When you cannot bringing in a lot of free agent talent (again minimums and exemptions,) trading is your best bet. This brings us to point 3.
3. Salary slot: A good way to think about salary slot is the amount a single player can be traded for to bring in new talent. Obviously there is incentive to overpay the player so as to have more money to work with. But, if a player makes too much relative to their talent level, then they become a negative asset. Negative assets are usually only able to bring back negative assets without providing positive assets to balance the scale. This becomes a delicate dance. If you underpay a player and they agree to stay then you might struggle to trade them later should the need arise. This is when teams add filler. The Goldilocks zone is to pay them enough to make them happy, make other teams think they are probably worth it, and not break the bank in the tax. Dlo is probably worth around 22-25. I can see him making more so that we don’t lose his salary slot.
4. Negotiation: Remember that these salary talks are negotiations between highly skilled negotiators. Dlo’s agent knows about our salary issues and has leverage to increase his payments. But, if Dlo gets hurt without a new deal, it could cost him a ton of money both on the missed time and on the new deal (he might need a prove it year depending on the injury.) Also remember this is Dlo’s prime earning time. The third contract is usually the biggest. But Dlo was overpaid on his second. This means a paycut. But Dlo probably doesn’t value himself in the mid tier, he probably sees himself as a max guy in the elite tier. All in all, I think we overpay Dlo, overpay Nowell, trade Naz for a cheap young player (I like Terrance Mann as a trade target, another name is Payton Pritchard, but there are others,) and then run it back. Keeping Prince and Anderson will be important next year.
